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Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:33 pm
by Krazy
My bad, the four reds earlier looked like you were a bit settled.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:42 pm
by Ankamius
oh
no, that post was me being amused that Kublai Khan made a point saying that me trying to townlead is the reason I'm not in the scumlist even though he basically had almost exactly the same scumreads that I did when I analyzed stuff yesterday
I'm doing different stuff today
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:43 pm
by Ankamius
Wavemode: you are a vanilla neighbor, correct?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:45 pm
by Ankamius
Does anyone have a list of claims that are currently known?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:52 pm
by Krazy
Are you including the obviously fake claims? (Think Vax? claimed vig at one point and retracted)
I think the known real ones are just Hop as last mason and yeah, Wave as last neighbor. Pretty sure all the other neighbors died. performer+ausuka are the dead neighbors.
Ausuka was IC, performer was vengeful+neighbor, Flavor Leaf was the other mason.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:53 pm
by Krazy
Pretty sure TBG is the only living VT claim now.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:54 pm
by Ankamius
I'm looking for real claims of currently alive players, yes
I want wavemode to confirm 6352 directly though
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:16 pm
by Ankamius
oh well, looks like I'm continuing this after work tomorrow...
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:08 pm
by Golden Robster
okay this might sound stupid but tbg bussed texcat
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:10 pm
by Golden Robster
and I'm probably in no position to be leading town right now but
if anything my reads have taken a 180 after that
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 pm
by Tchill13
Why do you think scum killed sajj?
Why would a scum team with me on it kill sajj?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:15 pm
by Tchill13
There's literally a confirmed Mason in the game still.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:20 pm
by Golden Robster
I need to re-read previous day in full and I don't understand saji kill
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:20 pm
by Ankamius
In post 6360, Tchill13 wrote:Why do you think scum killed sajj?
Why would a scum team with me on it kill sajj?
think about the bigger picture, not the individual kills
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:21 pm
by Ankamius
the sajj kill makes perfect sense under that light
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:26 pm
by Ankamius
fuck it I'll just reveal the answer
Almost50 was probably obvtown, he's generally significantly more readable now than he used to a few years ago
Ausuka + Flavor Leaf were conftown mechanically
PenguinPower and Scioness Sajj were counterwagons to flipped scum, therefore strongly town via those flips
Scum could be playing to disrupt the town's primary 'leadership'
Scum could be playing to get rid of the most competent players
Scum could be playing to get rid of players holding other town together
But no, scum are instead killing players that are going to be impossible to lynch and very obviously town via role or gamestate.
Scum are more afraid of a townblock than of the town's reads.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:29 pm
by Ankamius
(hint: this strongly suggests that scum are actually not in as good a spot as it might seem. what I'm getting from this is that there is a huge difference from what town is doing and what scum is doing, or at the very least there's a pattern emerging that would potentially solve the game... yet town are not in a position to catch on to what that difference or pattern is and scum are trying to make sure that stays true. that's why the loud players are alive, that's why the players that don't necessarily have the same reads as most other slots are alive [THESE are the slots that are most likely to have correct reads btw], that's why scum are trying to keep the chaos alive)
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:32 pm
by Golden Robster
@anka did you colour those vc's one by one?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:33 pm
by Ankamius
btw if I'm reading the setup correctly, scum also don't think the town PRs are enough of a threat to deal with
PEdit: no, I used a find and replace tool
I grabbed the VCs one by one though since the formatting is impossible to work with via a multiquote
that's a big reason why I did all the work and posted it for people to work with independently
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:37 pm
by Golden Robster
In post 6366, Ankamius wrote:(hint: this strongly suggests that scum are actually not in as good a spot as it might seem. what I'm getting from this is that there is a huge difference from what town is doing and what scum is doing, or at the very least there's a pattern emerging that would potentially solve the game... yet town are not in a position to catch on to what that difference or pattern is and scum are trying to make sure that stays true. that's why the loud players are alive, that's why the players that don't necessarily have the same reads as most other slots are alive [THESE are the slots that are most likely to have correct reads btw], that's why scum are trying to keep the chaos alive)
then potentially the majority of town have wrong reads?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:40 pm
by Ankamius
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:44 pm
by Golden Robster
Ankamius, who are your biggest SR's right now?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:44 pm
by Golden Robster
In post 6345, Ankamius wrote:JarJarDrinks, Wavemode, Vaxkiller, and Tchill all look really bad in this scenario.
is it still this?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:45 pm
by Ankamius
I haven't gotten to that part yet, everything I did today was pretty much a context to run analysis on specific slots through
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:46 pm
by Ankamius
Like building a likeness of the people I'm looking for before looking for them in the sea of people