Night 1: Investigate pistachi0n; no result.
Night 2: Investigate Axelrod; no result.
Night 3: Investigate Marquis; still pending.
I'm sorry my memory is bad sometimes(not often), I did change my investigation to mirhawk
I believe this, it matches up with what Ogre said.
I don't think Ogre ever intended to check me as he's the one who told me to claim.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:22 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 6379, podoboq wrote:First and foremost: If Dram flips scum, and the game doesn't immediately end, we either have five scum or a serial killer. Which of the two is more likely?
I don't think there's any way to tell. At least not right away.
In post 6379, podoboq wrote:First and foremost: If Dram flips scum, and the game doesn't immediately end, we either have five scum or a serial killer. Which of the two is more likely?
I don't think there's any way to tell. At least not right away.
I'm not asking anyone to claim here, but did I miss a claimed vig or are we just assuming? Because in that case a SK may not be unlikely, again do not claim if you are the vig and already have.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:24 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 6377, pistachi0n wrote:So the consensus is that town is in a good position--we could potentially break the game by picking off people one by one in the lynches since we have 3 (basically) confirmed town.
I would prefer dram today, will hammer podo if he gets to l-1
Four kind of if Pip soaks a kill on one of them.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:26 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 6386, The Pied Piper wrote:@podoboq: the only way we have an SK is if we don't have a vig. snarky and axel look like vig shots because of snarky's scummy looking hammer (and the fact that he was unreadable and not doing anything and a wagon on him wouldn't produce much information). Axel was universally scumread. An SK would be more likely to win if they were shooting widely townread people and trying to lynch scum during the day time. So I think there probably is not an SK.
I agree with this, though we don't have a lot of datapoints to judge it by.
Night 1: Investigate pistachi0n; no result.
Night 2: Investigate Axelrod; no result.
Night 3: Investigate Marquis; still pending.
I'm sorry my memory is bad sometimes(not often), I did change my investigation to mirhawk
I believe this, it matches up with what Ogre said.
I don't think Ogre ever intended to check me as he's the one who told me to claim.
Wait, how can a result be still pending?
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:36 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
This sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure if it'll actually work.
If there's no kill then we're left wondering why the game hasn't ended. I guess we would know at that point that there isn't a SK, but rather a scum. But in all honesty that doesn't buy us much and I don't see them not killing just for that.
If there is a kill then we have no way of knowing who made it. It could have been either the scum OR the SK. We won't know which, and if we do have a SK they could still at that point just claim to be a vig and say they didn't do it.
In post 6403, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I'm not asking anyone to claim here, but did I miss a claimed vig or are we just assuming? Because in that case a SK may not be unlikely, again do not claim if you are the vig and already have.
I think this is pretty much 100% guesswork from everyone involved.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:48 pm
by Rob14
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:01 pm
by Mirhawk
Back to the wall, of the two I would probably pick Podo.
I guess I have lightish townreads on both of them so eh, though in terms of recent events I feel that Dram looks better then Podo. His assertion that Dwlee could have been bussing is fairly reasonable, while Podo's defense of himself rubs me the wrong way. I dunno it feels.. desperate? I'm not sure why I don't like it, but It doesn't feel natural.
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
This sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure if it'll actually work.
If there's no kill then we're left wondering why the game hasn't ended. I guess we would know at that point that there isn't a SK, but rather a scum. But in all honesty that doesn't buy us much and I don't see them not killing just for that.
If there is a kill then we have no way of knowing who made it. It could have been either the scum OR the SK. We won't know which, and if we do have a SK they could still at that point just claim to be a vig and say they didn't do it.
Does that really change who we lynch? Town has enough of a lead and we have enough conftown.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:11 pm
by Mirhawk
No sorry, I was pandering theory instead of playing the game.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:13 pm
by Mirhawk
What do you think of Podo's defense?
Also looking for thoughts on Cakez and Piper if you're feeling it.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:18 pm
by Mirhawk
I'm also thinking I would like to hear from more people on Pips plan.
Advantages/Disadvantages? Problems? Changes in the order?
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:27 pm
by Cerberus v666
I expect there to be two anti-town roles remaining in this game. I expect those roles to both be mafia.
I haven't thought much of pips plan at all.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:40 pm
by Mirhawk
Hrrm. I've been going over the math. I don't think we have enough confirmed townies for that to work. It would end with us having to take at least two players at face value and that's if the Vig claimed.
We would just end in lylo with one confirmed townie and a 50/50 chance.
I was hoping we could autowin, but I guess not.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:43 pm
by Mirhawk
I guess we could assume Shotty is town, and I would feel moderately okay with doing so (due mostly to my read on Ogre), but that's sketchy to commit to.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:43 pm
by Mirhawk
And if the Vig was RB'ed tonight the whole thing would be out the window.
(whoever we lynch) flips scum, and the game doesn't immediately end, we either have five scum or a serial killer. Which of the two is more likely?
I actually really want some feedback on this, if people don't mind. I have very little experience on mafiascum, so I'd just be guessing.
Pretty much. Or both.
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
I know this sounds extreme, but in my experience (in the fast, party game version of mafia), forcing people who are suspects to kind of give up ownership of their night action is sometimes the right play.
Leashing is bad play. The fact a player is conftown doesn't mean they're right. I fully trust Pist to exclusively aim the vig/sk at town players.
In post 6395, pistachi0n wrote:So my ideal lynch order would be dram > podo > cakez > mirhawk
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
This sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure if it'll actually work.
If there's no kill then we're left wondering why the game hasn't ended. I guess we would know at that point that there isn't a SK, but rather a scum. But in all honesty that doesn't buy us much and I don't see them not killing just for that.
If there is a kill then we have no way of knowing who made it. It could have been either the scum OR the SK. We won't know which, and if we do have a SK they could still at that point just claim to be a vig and say they didn't do it.
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
This sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure if it'll actually work.
If there's no kill then we're left wondering why the game hasn't ended. I guess we would know at that point that there isn't a SK, but rather a scum. But in all honesty that doesn't buy us much and I don't see them not killing just for that.
If there is a kill then we have no way of knowing who made it. It could have been either the scum OR the SK. We won't know which, and if we do have a SK they could still at that point just claim to be a vig and say they didn't do it.
Does that really change who we lynch? Town has enough of a lead and we have enough conftown.
In post 6387, podoboq wrote:This is all speculation, but I think it's worth noting. If we lynch the last scum, I think we need to steal control of the vig's night action. Tell them "Shoot this player (or nobody) or when you claim, we will lynch you." That way, in case that player actually is the SK, they have to just obey town. The person in charge of the final decision could be pistachion, since she's confirmed town.
This sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure if it'll actually work.
If there's no kill then we're left wondering why the game hasn't ended. I guess we would know at that point that there isn't a SK, but rather a scum. But in all honesty that doesn't buy us much and I don't see them not killing just for that.
If there is a kill then we have no way of knowing who made it. It could have been either the scum OR the SK. We won't know which, and if we do have a SK they could still at that point just claim to be a vig and say they didn't do it.
That's a good point. I'm gonna put some thinking into this and try to come out with a foolproof plan.
Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:45 pm
by podoboq
In post 6421, dramonic wrote:Leashing is bad play. The fact a player is conftown doesn't mean they're right. I fully trust Pist to exclusively aim the vig/sk at town players.
Conftown is more qualified to make the decision than somebody who has a 50/50 shot of being against town. Just because pistachi0n is fallible doesn't mean we shouldn't trust her with vig powers.