Micro 134 (F11) (Game Over!)

[Sotty7]

God lord.

Can we lynch both Four and Syryana? 646 and 647 are both so bad.

[Syryana]

God lord.

Can we lynch both Four and Syryana? 646 and 647 are both so bad.

I agree that 647 is bad. As is 641 and 642. However, 646 is bad only because you've decided I'm scum. You're wrong, but at this point God hmiself could descend from the heavens with an angelic choir singing my alignment to the world and you'd still think I'm scum. I've tried to reasonably respond to every point you've made about me, yet you respond with "Nah, I don't believe you" or "LOL he bad scum LOL". So until you make a valid point that's not snide or WIFOM-based, I'm done trying to convince you.

On to business. I've to decide whether to vote Jason or FT. Jason's been eerily scummy all game, but on check of his meta he's pretty much like that all the time. According to said meta, he tends to try harder and make more sense when he's scum. On the other hand, Nacho was fairly confident that Jason would flip scum and has been idly bussing him for half of D1 and all of D2. Also according to Sotty, Jason has been lazy in all of his ongoings, so his meta may not be entirely accurate either.

FT. I was convinced this guy is scum at the start of the day and he's now battling with Jason for my lynch vote. I won't restate my case on him for the sake of brevity, but I will say that my scumread on this guy hasn't diminished so much as the one on Jason has increased to the point where it competes.

Both FT and Jason have made unexplained flips recently. FT's reason for flipping to Jason seems hurried and his reasoning for unvoting me doesn't sit right. Jason has yet to detail why FT is his alternate scumread and put FT at L-1 with zero justification other than "I'm bored". I'm going to wait until Jason explains himself before making a decision.

[jasonT1981]

Jason has yet to detail why FT is his alternate scumread and put FT at L-1 with zero justification other than "I'm bored". I'm going to wait until Jason explains himself before making a decision.

read the game, I already have....

[Syryana]

read the game, I already have....

You've stated your choice is between CES and FT. You make vague references to FT in D2; the only reason you give was taken straight from my argument about him putting Whiskers at L-1 so CES could hammer. I want a comprehensive case on why you think FT is scum, not "I can't get CES lynched, so let's go with FT."

[Zachrulez]

5th vote count of day 3:

FourTrouble - 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum, JasonT1981)
JasonT1981 - 1 (FourTrouble)
Syryana - 1 (Sotty7)

Not Voting: (Dazed and Confused, Syryana)

With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2013-03-30 09:00:00)

[Dazed and Confused]

Going to grab some food and then type up a post that summarizes my thoughts on everyone alive.

[Dazed and Confused]

Just got back, here's where I stand on things right now. I'm not going to waste time talking about Sotty and CES since it should be relatively uncontroversial that they're town (silly people like Jason notwithstanding) so I'd like to spend most of this post talking about the others. This will probably sound scattered and stuff but *points to username*

Jason:

Ok so I really want to just trust Sotty here, I really do, but every time I read his ISO I throw up a little in my mouth and his interactions with Nacho suck. Nacho's initial vote for Jason comes in #154 at a time where he's drawn quite a bit of attention and the reasoning he attaches for the vote is kind of shitty. He doesn't actively pursue this vote at all during Day 1, just kind of apathetically parks it here while doing his whole disinterested active-lurking thing, directing a bunch of surface-probing stuff at other players for the rest of the Day but never returning to his Jason suspicions. Nacho's a

little

more involved in pushing Jason during Day 2, but it's still a pretty apathetic push and there's a bunch of little things that make me think he was bussing -- little posturing comments like #419 do seem to come from the perspective of someone who knows what Jason will flip. Strategically, it would also make sense to bus given the game state on Day 2 -- the cop had just been lynched, so he doesn't have to worry about being checked and having Jason come back scum would certainly give him enough towncred to survive over Syryana/FT/CES. And I still maintain the timing of his D1 vote was suspicious -- this is probably pretentious theory, but I think scum usually try to distance like that when there's a lot of heat put on them. There's really nothing to lose and a lot to gain -- get their partner lynched for towncred but also to position their partner for a solo victory if they ever get lynched themselves. I don't know if this makes sense to anyone but me, but yeah.

------> As far as Jason's own play goes, there's really a lot to dislike. He spent pretty much all of D1 coasting after his initial gambit and voting Josh. D2 followed much the same pattern except his return included lots of posturing about CES's quickhammer and a line of inquiry that doesn't feel at all like he's trying to figure out CES's alignment but is instead attacking him for something easy and mindless to get him strung up. He doesn't really seem to care much about Nacho's suspicions either, only really responds to him in #483 but the whole thing just feels fake. His whole argument against CES Today is patently ridiculous (the argument that an initial silent vote is somehow CES encouraging a quick lynch being the most laughable) especially given that he's played with CES a few times before so the unexplained votes shouldn't be any form of a scumtell. I know this guy usually looks scummy in just about every town game but I have such a hard time seeing him as town here. Can someone please tell me what I'm missing here?

FourTrouble:

Rereading him again, I can see the argument for him being scum. He's spent most of the game with an almost singular focus on the Rach/Syryana slot and there are some moments where it does feel like he's distancing Nacho (see: posts like #313). Something I noticed while reading that one scum game of his is that he does tend to be a lot tunnel-ier and uses a lot more hyperbolic language when pushing on people. His recent 180 shift from Syryana to Jason also does feel artificial and it comes out of nowhere and doesn't really seem supported by much of anything (by the way, Sotty, I completely disagree with you about that Syryana post being a bad one given that the question Syr asks is very much valid in my opinion). At the same time, though, there are some things that ring genuine to me -- particularly the bit in #111 about really wanting CES to be town because of his accuracy. The self meta bit about just straight up bussing Nacho for the towncred if he were scum also does feel somewhat townish given that strategically he does seem to play in that rather canned manner. Interaction-wise, Nacho doesn't really do a whole lot with this slot.

RachMarie/Syrana:

First, get the elephant in the room out of the way -- his whole "game plan" and explanation behind quick hammering Nacho on D2 is so ridiculous and farfetched that I'm actually having a hard time believing this is something semi-competent scum concocted. Now to talk about Rach -- she's one of those players who tends to look scummy usually but there are frankly a lot of things she's done that feels town. Her explanation for choosing Josh over Nacho is something that I agree with CES feels genuine (#80) and the kind of overeager meta speculation in #224 also feels townish. And unlike FT's switch, I do think his paranoia re: Jason is a bit more genuine. Need to talk to Mina about this though, since she did suspect him at the start of the Day but we've both been really busy and haven't gotten the chance to communicate. Interaction-wise, I don't really know if Nacho would go for the partner hard-defense here as I haven't fully explored his meta in that much detail (e.g., checking to see how he interacts with his partners) but my initial instinct tells me no.

So basically, right now I'm between Jason and FT with Jason currently in the lead for my vote.

[Sotty7]

I'm basically at the point of voting for Four because CES is standing in the corner of the room glaring at me to do just that. And really, who am I to argue at this point? His Jason vote is pretty ridiculous.

Your bussing theory is interesting and has a little weight. I would like Jason to respond to that.

Syrana's unvote is terrible because of the whole Nacho quick hammer and the fact Jason was right. This game WAS lagging, discussion was basically at a standstill and him dropping his vote DID stimulate some stuff from happening. Plus the idea that someone would quick hammer with the people who weren't voting at the time or could have switched (Myself, D+C and Four) is just insanity. Keeping his vote on Four while making Jason lay down better reasons would have been a much better use of his time. But whatever.

Also, deadline is in like two days so lets pick it up. AKA if you're not voting right now, you should fix that.

[Zachrulez]

Cogito Ergo Sum has been prodded.

[jasonT1981]

Alright

FT

quite a few of his votes have been without reason and seems happy to lynch most people at times
his L-1 vote opening up for the Quickhammer without much reasoning
seems to be mostly agreeing with others instead of doing his own work

[jasonT1981]

Your bussing theory is interesting and has a little weight. I would like Jason to respond to that.

gonna have a think and get back to you.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Still want FT lynched.

Day is running down and I think the consensus opinion here is clear.

[Sotty7]

Your bussing theory is interesting and has a little weight. I would like Jason to respond to that.

gonna have a think and get back to you.

Not acceptable. Deadline is in a day and half. Get on it.

[FourTrouble]

quite a few of his votes have been without reason and seems happy to lynch most people at times
his L-1 vote opening up for the Quickhammer without much reasoning
seems to be mostly agreeing with others instead of doing his own work

What votes have been without reason? The L-1 vote on Whiskers? I didn't think a reason was necessary for that vote, it was pretty obvious.

The rest of your reasons to lynch me are bullshit. I've been putting out plenty of my own analysis, dunno where you get the idea I'm just agreeing with people, and I'm not happy to just lynch anyone, I'm happy to lynch my scumreads.

[FourTrouble]

What makes my reassessment of Syryana scummy? He did something that I thought wouldn't have come from scum, I took a new look at Jason, and decided that was a better place for my vote.

[Sotty7]

Unvote, Vote: FourTrouble

I'm at work all day today, but lets try and get something done.

[Sotty7]

^ lynch -1

[Dazed and Confused]

Anything to say in your defence, FourTrouble?

Sotty, basically, you don't think jason is town, just that he looks scummy regardless of his alignment?

[Dazed and Confused]

Sorry for not mentioning any of this two weeks ago, but I was busy and then found it hard to reengage again. jason, I still want a response to this.

Yea, it did, sorry.. still getting games mixed up (im in 2 with him) but still very unsettled by his L-1 vote.

Why are you unsettled by his vote? It seems like you haven't given any deeper analysis than "he cast the L-1 vote on a mislynch"! (That's not exactly a rare occurrence in Mafia.) What exactly is scummy about his vote in particular? Was Whiskers a bad target?

I was going to write off the game thing as an honest mistake, but the more I think about it, the more this is really something that shouldn't come from town (although after the Whiskers fiasco, I'm not ready to put

anything

past town). You just gave a made-up reason for why you suspect FT. If you're town, you shouldn't be going, "Look at this thing I said about FT early on D1! This proves that my stance on him is consistent." You should actually know in your head

what

behaviour of FT's is scummy.

Have you basically just admitted that your actual reasons for suspecting FT are fake?

Sotty, do you see anything town in his play this game? Any actual towntells other than be lazy in all his games? "Sometimes he looks really scummy as town" isn't enough.

Stuff on Syryana coming up, too.

[Syryana]

I'll wait for FT's defense to vote, if he has one. I'm also curious as to what Mina's got to say about me.

[Dazed and Confused]

I don't relish Sixty's reaction to a FT scumflip, particularly after I was so

patronizing

about the read on D1. *wince*

FT, I take it you never did the meta research you said you'd do on Josh (or whoever it was) on D1?

Syryana, what I mainly have to say is that you confuse the hell out of me. I'd love to write you off as town (and I've been increasingly warming up to you today), because there are posts and reactions that sound really genuine, and you come across as though you're thinking a lot about things...but a couple of your stated motivations don't make sense and contradict each other.

Empire and I didn't talk that much earlier on, so I don't think I communicated my issues with Syryana well. Basically, it's that before the hammer on D2, our suspect pool was {Nacho, jason, FT}. Part of why I finally settled on you being town was because I'm a sucker and thought your whole explanation about reaction-testing jason looked unlikely to be fake.

Then you announced that that was actually a lie, and gave an explanation that actually sounded more implausible than the original.

I'm not sure what the scum motivation is for consistently changing your story (

maybe

setting up a Nacho hammer for towncred), but if you faked something like that, it makes me feel like you're being dishonest (and good at it), so I shouldn't trust the things you say.

This in particular bugs me:

After reading Jason's latest posts, I found little in them that made me want to change my vote: his analysis was poorly thought out and/or nonexistent, his reasoning behind why Sotty's change of heart about him is vague and unjustified, his responses to Nacho parroted me in places and were again vague. Jason has time and again evaded answering the most important question in this game: "Why?". I don't give a fat damn what Jason (or anyone else for that matter) thinks, I want to know why they think it. And Jason, moreso than anyone else in this game, has avoided answering that question.

Why did you mention Nacho then when you decided to vote for me?

Because he's wildly inconsistent and can't keep his scumlogic straight?

These do not sound like the posts of a townie who is absolutely convinced that jason is town for meta reasons, even one using reverse psychology to get Nacho lynched instead. Never mind that if your job was to scare people onto Nacho, why did you give a cover story of testing jason for reactions? You could have accomplished that better just by faking a scum read on him.

Also, exactly when did you read jason's meta? Can you give concrete examples of what in his scumplay made you so confident he's town? Why have you changed your mind since then?

Also also:

D+C - My towniest townread. They've been pretty obvtown the whole game, they've followed good lines of reasoning all game (well, minus a policy lynch on CES, that kinda backfired), and out of all their 100 posts I can't point to anything that would make me think they're scum.

This kind of raises my hackles, particularly since you actually HAVE pointed out something in this game that made you think we could be scum. It's too over-the-top.

(Lastly, I kind of agree with Sotty that the Amished tell post sounded forced.)

[FourTrouble]

I did do some meta research on Josh -- he was inactive and replaced out of nearly every game. It was Whiskers that got my vote, not Josh.

Sotty, did you see Jason's reasons for voting me? Is even a single one of them an accurate representation of my play?

What kind of defense are you guys looking for? I dunno what to say at this point, should I explain why I think I'm town? I already explained why I took my vote off Syryana, it was the combination of a towny post + taking a new look at Jason.

Dazed and Confused's analysis is really good on Syryana. I honestly am not sure which one it is at this point, there are really good reasons to vote for both Syryana and Jason.

Syryana hesitance to hammer me was very towny. I know Sotty disagrees but I just don't see why scum would stall any longer when on the verge of getting a lynch. Jason/Nacho interactions also make the most sense as buddies. There were a few things that stuck out to me when I reread them, I'll try to explain in more detail when I have time later tonight.

[Syryana]

...but a couple of your stated motivations don't make sense and contradict each other.

Empire and I didn't talk that much earlier on, so I don't think I communicated my issues with Syryana well. Basically, it's that before the hammer on D2, our suspect pool was {Nacho, jason, FT}. Part of why I finally settled on you being town was because I'm a sucker and thought your whole explanation about reaction-testing jason looked unlikely to be fake.

Then you announced that that was actually a lie, and gave an explanation that actually sounded more implausible than the original.

I looked back over my ISO after you mentioned this. It took me a bit to figure out why I was contradicting myself, but I figured it out eventually. Here's the problem:

My Jason push was a decoy. I figured if I voted Nacho, people would look at the vote and go "wtf ehrmagerd the noob is voting for Nacho let's kill someone else". Therefore, I voted for Jason, working under the assumption people would look at it, get disgusted, call me terrible, and vote for one of the other scumreads. Sort of an anti-vote, if you will.

I picked Jason because he and Nacho were on pretty much everyone's lists and after reading Jason's scum meta I was fairly sure he was town.

I bolded the pertinent point. I misrepped myself terribly in that line and I didn't even realize it. You asked me, D+C, when it was that I read Jason's meta and decided he was town? Answer, Night 2. I read him over after Nacho flipped scum, but before Day 3 started. You can see the games I read in Jason's #522. If you ISO him and just skim the posts he makes, he puts a hell of a lot more effort into both his logic and his posts. It's hard to point to a specific example, but his scum play just has a... flavor to it. His scumhunting is less genuine; he doesn't ask many questions of people as scum, but rather points out facts and bases his "opinion" on those. Heck, even his grammar is a lot better in those posts than here. I made the erroneous assumption that because his play here is nothing like his scum meta, he must be town.

Back to the point. In the above quote, I stated I knew Jason was town all along, but did the decoy anyways to get Nacho lynched. This is false. It was an error born, it pains me to admit, of my own arrogance and my glee over hammering a scum. I read jason's ISO on Night 2 and told myself he was town since his scum meta is nothing like how he's playing this game. By the time of the above post, I'd convinced myself that I'd known it all along and I was some kind of badass for pulling the decoy off in the first place. Hence the misrep.

Here's what happened. When I initially voted for Jason, he was a null read as I stated in #450. My choices at the time were: CES, FT, Nacho, Jason. CES was off the table; that wagon was dead and I had begun to think my case on him was paranoia. FT was not a viable option either; voting for him would have gotten no information as people probably expected me to do it and it was obvious by that time that he wasn't going to be lynched that Day (explained in #498). So my choices were down to two: Jason and Nacho. Of the two, I felt Nacho was scummier.

My initial vote on Jason was influenced by two factors: a desire for information and my own sense of inadequacy. I was not lying in #498 when I gave my reasons for voting Jason and I did not believe he was town at that point. I omitted the fact that I'd rather see Nacho dead, but a Jason lynch wouldn't have made me sad either. The sense of inadequacy came from replacing into a game with a ton of veterans: CES, Sixty, Sotty, D+C. I told myself that I'm awful at this game compared to those players and inaccurately assumed that whomever I would vote for would engender a negative reaction towards the lynch of that person. Therefore, working under the assumption that my vote is an anti-vote I voted Jason.

Posts #498 and #510 came about after Jason's responses. The original desire to vote him stemmed from a desire for information and a hidden desire to lynch Nacho, but the responses degenerated Jason from null to scumread. By #510 I was convinced he was scum with Nacho: whichever one gets lynched was fine by me.

Then came Sotty's Nacho vote. At this point, it was fairly obvious Jason wasn't going to be lynched and Nacho was my greater scumread anyways. The decoy worked! Hammer time!

Then I read Jason's scum meta overNight and it became obvious to me he was town, since his actions this game are vastly different from his normal scum play, including logic, analysis, even grammar. I made the unfortunate error of not reading his town meta; I made the erroneous assumption that I didn't need to given the disparity between his actions in this game and his scum meta. A mistake, as it turned out (hubris again, I don't need to read his town meta when he's obviously not scum). I went and read his town meta as well, and his play is vastly different from that too, invalidating part of the reason I thought Jason town at the beginning of the Day. Another reason I gave him a town pass was Nacho's flip. I didn't think he was Nacho's partner as Nacho bussed him from the get-go on Day 1. It wasn't until D+C pointed out that Nacho implied he knew Jason was scum all along (and thus bussing him for towncred) that I realized my error.

That's how I got to the misrep in #545. My vote on Jason originated as a decoy, but I also was not lying about my reasoning in #498 and #510. The misrep was that I thought Jason was town all along. I got too impressed by my own cleverness and made an arrogant statement that matched neither the facts nor my own actions. I did

not

believe Jason town until N2/D3, nor had I even read his meta at the point I voted him originally. He was the weaker of two scumreads at the time and I voted him out of a desire for information and a desire to keep the Nacho wagon alive.

D+C - My towniest townread. They've been pretty obvtown the whole game, they've followed good lines of reasoning all game (well, minus a policy lynch on CES, that kinda backfired), and out of all their 100 posts I can't point to anything that would make me think they're scum.

This kind of raises my hackles, particularly since you actually HAVE pointed out something in this game that made you think we could be scum. It's too over-the-top.

It

is

a bit much, isn't it? I'd completely forgotten about the tell I posted regarding your "if we die tonight" post back on Day 1. What really convinced me about you guys was #479. Your analysis of your thoughts on CES was spot-on and I felt like I could actually see your thought process involving him. I found it extremely unlikely that you'd be able to manufacture something like that as scum and I evolved you into my biggest townread at that point, especially since the only actual scumtell I had on you was born of paranoia. You haven't done anything since to change my mind.

[Syryana]

What kind of defense are you guys looking for? I dunno what to say at this point, should I explain why I think I'm town?

I'm going to hammer this guy today unless someone disagrees. "why I think I'm town" indeed.

[Dazed and Confused]

I'm going to hammer this guy today unless someone disagrees. "why I think I'm town" indeed.

I don't know if Mina has anything else to say, but yeah sure go nuts. I'll be around later tonight to hammer if no one else has yet.