Newbie 2078 - Game Over

[kennyk]

I am always forgetting something.
I wanted to point out the fact, that strategically a no elim is giving town better chances than more or less randomly voting someone off. So that is a big part of my vote, too.

[Micc]

Votecount 4.01

No Elimination (2) -

GrandpaMo, kennyk

Not Voting (2) -

AlwaysNever, RCEnigma

With 4 players alive it takes 3 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2021-10-11 15:10:00).

[AlwaysNever]

well damn, I forgot, the day started during midnight time for me. let me just say this though.

I can't help but disagree that no elim would be better here, cause that just means that I'm going to leave the game on scum's tempo. I don't want that, so I'm just going to vote who I believe is scum today. I implore that the rest of you should as well, and possibly talk about who is scum here instead of letting the last scum take the initiative.

[AlwaysNever]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

[AlwaysNever]

ok i think as just much as i want to condemn kennyk here, i think the best option for us is to always nc here, since we are in a world of evens.

especially in this playerlist, where no one is dead -- the mafia kill does actually give us info.

VOTE: Sleep

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

I like those posts. I thought that after Greetings flipped green I had handed over the whole game to scum with my theory. I was sure I was going to be quickly eliminated today. And that would have gotten us into a 2-1 night, 1-1 day --> game over for town.

I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

I am begining to feel really paranoid.
Vote for Grandpa who hammered? But he made the posts above. But what if he wanted to pocket someone with them? But then again, why would he need to? He could have just voted me as I put myself in the spotlight D3.
Vote RCE for hopping on my train so fast? But what if Always played it really slow?

I really can't make up my mind right now.

VOTE: no elimination

I am always forgetting something.
I wanted to point out the fact, that strategically a no elim is giving town better chances than more or less randomly voting someone off. So that is a big part of my vote, too.

to be honest with you, I didn't regard your theory so much because I have my own theory on Greeting, but I see now that I was mistaking bad reads as being scummy, and I kinda felt bad about it.

to elaborate, I also agree with you right now about not making up my damn mind right now, but that doesn't mean we should no elim immediately. no elim meant we're handing the initiative to scum to decide which of the three they want for the last day, and I don't feel good about that. It'd give us only a flip info, and then nothing else. I'd rather that we no elim because we ran out of time instead of voting to no elim, because at least with that, we can have posts that we could bring to the last day as argument and theory on who should we vote.

voting no elim would just give us less than that, and just allow scum to hide in past posts as proof that they're not scum.

[kennyk]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

[kennyk]

ok i think as just much as i want to condemn kennyk here, i think the best option for us is to always nc here, since we are in a world of evens.

especially in this playerlist, where no one is dead -- the mafia kill does actually give us info.

VOTE: Sleep

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

I like those posts. I thought that after Greetings flipped green I had handed over the whole game to scum with my theory. I was sure I was going to be quickly eliminated today. And that would have gotten us into a 2-1 night, 1-1 day --> game over for town.

I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

I am begining to feel really paranoid.
Vote for Grandpa who hammered? But he made the posts above. But what if he wanted to pocket someone with them? But then again, why would he need to? He could have just voted me as I put myself in the spotlight D3.
Vote RCE for hopping on my train so fast? But what if Always played it really slow?

I really can't make up my mind right now.

VOTE: no elimination

I am always forgetting something.
I wanted to point out the fact, that strategically a no elim is giving town better chances than more or less randomly voting someone off. So that is a big part of my vote, too.

to be honest with you, I didn't regard your theory so much because I have my own theory on Greeting, but I see now that I was mistaking bad reads as being scummy, and I kinda felt bad about it.

to elaborate, I also agree with you right now about not making up my damn mind right now, but that doesn't mean we should no elim immediately. no elim meant we're handing the initiative to scum to decide which of the three they want for the last day, and I don't feel good about that. It'd give us only a flip info, and then nothing else. I'd rather that we no elim because we ran out of time instead of voting to no elim, because at least with that, we can have posts that we could bring to the last day as argument and theory on who should we vote.

voting no elim would just give us less than that, and just allow scum to hide in past posts as proof that they're not scum.

I agree with you that the no-elim option shouldn't be choosen to fast. So for now I UNVOTE: no elimination

And to be clear about the Greeting-wagon: I specifically don't see you in a bad light for being on that wagon, because you were on it before I posted my theory. So you must have had another reason. Sure, you didn't unvote while you had the chance. But my eyes are more on those two voting after us and finishing the wagon off so quick.

[AlwaysNever]

I'm getting worried that RCE has been losing his WIM because he's the last solo scum, but I don't want to vote him just because he has low volume recently.

Also for kenny, yeah I was thinking that it might be either Gpa or RCE, the last two people on the Greeting wagons, I don't think you might be the last scum, but I'm also still paranoid that you might be the last one. We both are paranoid on each other, which meant we can also both be T

I'm still waiting on RCE rn, and also Gpa, to see if they have thoughts over what I say. If they're not posting soon, I'm gonna lose my mind

[AlwaysNever]

In fact, I think RCE's posts lacks a certain punch after night 1, like... he was totally affected by the lucky nightblock by Dorsey

[AlwaysNever]

Consequently, Gpa's first post after night 1 was talking about how my post looked like scum ranting on their chat and coming to the thread to explain their grief, which I could see as him trying to project his own feelings on the night result on my own post

[AlwaysNever]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

also yeah I forgot to reply on this, but thanks for explaining it to me. looking at this, I can see why we should no-elim, but I still stand on what I say about us talking the whole deadline instead of immediately no-elimming. the more time we spent talking, the more evidences we can bring to the last day, and the more chances that a scum slipped and reveal themselves, which I think would be beneficial to town, but maybe not beneficial to the mod's time sorry mod

[AlwaysNever]

and lastly, Kenny, because you replaced in late into day 1 and practically has no posts in that day, I have to contend with your first few posts in d2 being a reaction compilation of what happened day 1, which scum could easily do to hide their own thoughts about scum's disappointing night 1, but I admit that was the stretchiest theory of them all

[AlwaysNever]

ugh god I have to take a stance, it's my bad habit in these games, fencesitting. I'd say I vote the one that I think is scum, and based on the analysis I did just now...

VOTE: RCEnigma

[kennyk]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

[AlwaysNever]

fuck fuck fuck i just realized kenny fucking scumslipped LOL

if gpa is on and about to post here, I want you to explain what this means too, cause I can't get an angle on kenny and it's worrying me at this point

[AlwaysNever]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

hmmm I don't know, I tend not to look at whether people are online or not at a certain time to determine if they're scum. In games I previously played, it was even strictly forbidden to bring this to consideration cause it would be considered as angleshooting, idk if this constitute as one here as well but I'm just gonna play it safe

[AlwaysNever]

fuck fuck fuck i just realized kenny fucking scumslipped LOL

if gpa is on and about to post here, I want you to explain what this means too, cause I can't get an angle on kenny and it's worrying me at this point

and also I just realized that he said that and then decided to vote no elim today instead cause it was the most "optimal" play?

what

[kennyk]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

hmmm I don't know, I tend not to look at whether people are online or not at a certain time to determine if they're scum. In games I previously played, it was even strictly forbidden to bring this to consideration cause it would be considered as angleshooting, idk if this constitute as one here as well but I'm just gonna play it safe

In general I don't use online times as a method to detect scum either. One thing is that it can't be proven later on. The "Last visited" stat refreshes every time one visits. And even if there are posts in other threads/games it doesn't mean to much. But since RCE didn't post anything on D4 I was just curious if he has been online since the day started or not. If he was, one

could

(!) argue, he was deliberately ignoring this game by not posting. And even if he was ignoring it, that is no direct sign for him being scum.

But as I looked at his stats he wasn't logged in for quite sone time and I just began to wonder, if this could clear him. As said, it didn't. So it is NAI right now.

[kennyk]

fuck fuck fuck i just realized kenny fucking scumslipped LOL

if gpa is on and about to post here, I want you to explain what this means too, cause I can't get an angle on kenny and it's worrying me at this point

and also I just realized that he said that and then decided to vote no elim today instead cause it was the most "optimal" play?

what

I would also be glad to hear how I should have scumslipped.

*ironyon*Now I have the proof that you are scum AlwaysNever: You did post number 666. That is the evil number.*ironyoff*

[GrandpaMo]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

Yes this is correct. However, let me elaborate more.

Yes we will be playing on scum's tempo, but that's the norm for final 4's.

There is no tempo to play unless to grant more time now.

Letting scum play the night is more strategic for town to concur. This is because we can analyze why scum killed during the night.

It is more of WIFOM stiution yes. It's kinda hypocritical for AlwaysNever to say we shouldn't be voting right now, but us sleeping gives us more time now in this day + f3. And if we are wrong about the vote in a f4, we auto lose compared to f3. That's why we always mechanically vote for no one here.

I initially also towered you @AlwaysNever. I was the first to come out and say you were town and RCEnigma rebuked that.

[GrandpaMo]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

[GrandpaMo]

fuck fuck fuck i just realized kenny fucking scumslipped LOL

if gpa is on and about to post here, I want you to explain what this means too, cause I can't get an angle on kenny and it's worrying me at this point

and also I just realized that he said that and then decided to vote no elim today instead cause it was the most "optimal" play?

what

I would also be glad to hear how I should have scumslipped.

*ironyon*Now I have the proof that you are scum AlwaysNever: You did post number 666. That is the evil number.*ironyoff*

This was a reaction test. If it was real, I would have voted you Kenny by now, and pushed that narrative that you scumslipped. I was going to go with it previous day but then I realized there was no point because I thought we would have won the game lol

[GrandpaMo]

I implore that the rest of you should as well, and possibly talk about who is scum here instead of letting the last scum take the initiative.

That is literally the point of the no lim, it is to let people talk and give their stances then go to sleep. Mafia kills >> we look back on why they killed that person...

Don't get convoluted, because if you wrong, we town lose.

Scum is more likely to push someone this day to get a easy misaim instead of holding another day of discussion.

[AlwaysNever]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

Yes this is correct. However, let me elaborate more.

Yes we will be playing on scum's tempo, but that's the norm for final 4's.

There is no tempo to play unless to grant more time now.

Letting scum play the night is more strategic for town to concur. This is because we can analyze why scum killed during the night.

It is more of WIFOM stiution yes. It's kinda hypocritical for AlwaysNever to say we shouldn't be voting right now, but us sleeping gives us more time now in this day + f3. And if we are wrong about the vote in a f4, we auto lose compared to f3. That's why we always mechanically vote for no one here.

I initially also towered you @AlwaysNever. I was the first to come out and say you were town and RCEnigma rebuked that.

No, see, I don't mind no elimming today, I just don't want to do it right this second, I'd rather let the timer run out while we discuss rather than immediately voting to no elim, I can't see why voting no elim right now would give us more time, please enlighten me on that

[AlwaysNever]

I implore that the rest of you should as well, and possibly talk about who is scum here instead of letting the last scum take the initiative.

That is literally the point of the no lim, it is to let people talk and give their stances then go to sleep. Mafia kills >> we look back on why they killed that person...

Don't get convoluted, because if you wrong, we town lose.

Scum is more likely to push someone this day to get a easy misaim instead of holding another day of discussion.

with this logic, I think we should wait on RCE to give his stance before deciding to no elim then, right?