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Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:27 am
by The Three Bears
if you are town,
the only possible teams are [roden, mastina, cephrir] + tictac
or mastina + cephrir.
rank the four choices in terms of how likely they are
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:29 am
by The Three Bears
In post 6510, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I feel like whoever is scum in Mastina/Ceph is already TMI’ing that the true battle will be between them tommorow.
Tictac is just the fall guy.
its also possible that both are scum and tictac is the town elim that ends the game.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:30 am
by The Three Bears
that would be very stupid lmao but if scum wanna lower the mislim options for town, do it lololol. i've got no complaints.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:40 am
by The Three Bears
actually free time spurred me into high gear? it didnt have anything to do with the E-1
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:42 am
by The Three Bears
ok time to analyze more of ircher and dunns posts from day 1. I think this will be a good use of me time.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:44 am
by The Three Bears
mastina can you explain how cakez locking the thread conftowned LLD and us
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:52 am
by The Three Bears
so far mastina actually looks alright from one dunn interaction.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:53 am
by The Three Bears
actually no, both ircher and dunn are so mean to her. that makes me think she's actually a scum buddy. it makes some level of sense. let's keep reading. i need to stop pausing uggggg
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:54 am
by The Three Bears
ircher roden interactions looking really really clean so far.
AGH I NEED TOS TOP im never gonna finish gah
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:06 am
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 6526, The Three Bears wrote: In post 6510, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I feel like whoever is scum in Mastina/Ceph is already TMI’ing that the true battle will be between them tommorow.
Tictac is just the fall guy.
its also possible that both are scum and tictac is the town elim that ends the game.
I feel like it would be galaxy brain levels of bussing for Mastina to be alligned with Ceph… and Dunn/Ircher.
Also hasn’t Mastina explained that they don’t really buss as scum?
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:09 am
by NorwegianboyEE
Roden/Tictac doesn’t seem very likely. And i feel Roden would have voted them earlier if that was the case, because why try to save an struggling scumbuddy in this scenario when you’d be in a better position from bussing.
No it can only really be Tictac/Ceph or Tictac/Mastina here.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:10 am
by NorwegianboyEE
I’m pretty damn sure Tictac just flips scum here anyways, but my guess is still Ceph/Tictac with an weak possibility of Tictac/Mastina.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:19 am
by The Three Bears
I think Norwee is definitely town here.
Ok I think i have my reads together at this point.
I feel pretty solid on Roden and Norwee town. I'm definitely going to have paranoia moving forward but I believe I am correct.
Norwees posts this past day are just not coming from scum. There's a huge lack of agenda and Norwee scum would be pushing a town elimination for the win today, which they could fairly easily get. Most of Norwees posts are sort of like hmm analysis analysis and waiting for others to chime in rather than driving an elimination that wins scum norwee the game here. In a gamestate like this, mislims aren't hard if you push hard and appear towny. Slow games are scum's play ground. Norwee does not play this way today as scum.
Roden's interactions with different scum on day 1 are looking good. By the way, i do want to clear up that i was trying to bait reactions by calling roden scum liek five times today. Sure i have paranoia but i dont really entertain the possibility that roden is scum very much. Scum were dancing around him as a mislim option. Overall interactions were pretty clean cut and i do think roden had the towniest interactions with flipped scum.
This leaves all scum in [cephrir, mastina, tictac]
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:32 am
by The Three Bears
ircher-mastina interactions are just WEIRD. i dont know how AI it is atp
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:41 am
by The Three Bears
IT WASNT >:[ I just like sussing people out okay
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:46 am
by The Three Bears
ok atp im just going to skim through and only read around ircher and dunn's posts.
nothing else is really helping me much
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:51 am
by The Three Bears
In post 4644, The Three Bears wrote:oh btw. i had a read sometime yesterday or overnight idr which but im pretty certain [mastina, cephrir] has scum. i have like 70% accuracy with these types of reads but i think it is true here. their dynamic was really really weird in one interaction i found.
it was like an indirect interaction that i currently dont remember anything about anymore. but it was suuuuuuch a weird interaction. pretty sure those two have scum pretty much impossible that both are town
its funny how accurate this is
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:52 am
by The Three Bears
I also had a read that [cephrir, fenrir] had scum. That may prove to be true btu it could've also been messed with because of how familiar they are with each other. Connections do mess with these types of reads to some extent
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:56 am
by The Three Bears
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:58 am
by The Three Bears
something interesting to note is that ircher and dunn have basically never interacted with cephrir.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:59 am
by The Three Bears
omg ffery has a new prfpc!!! also i got to the dunn rep in. SPICY SPICY ANALYSIS TYME
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:00 am
by The Three Bears
In post 1831, The Three Bears wrote:ok im finally here but i dont feel like reading up so i'll just try to keep up from here (PROBABLY WONT HAPPEN) but i'll try.
ALSO HECK YES for dunnstral repping in on main. i'll have a read on that slot soon i think
-baby bear
FIRST POST UPON DUNN REP IN LOOK AT ME GO
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:00 am
by Cephrir
In post 6527, The Three Bears wrote:
that would be very stupid lmao but if scum wanna lower the mislim options for town, do it lololol. i've got no complaints.
I don't think they need options. They only need one mislim, and no matter who is scum their plan is for it to be me.
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:03 am
by Cephrir
Ah well in that case we have to take her word for it!
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:05 am
by The Three Bears
ircher about to die day 1.
tictac starts andante wagon
In post 2041, The Three Bears wrote:oh wait wait wait wait wait wait WAIT hold the fukc up. i just skimmed dunnstrals iso.
thats scum. can we bring that wagon back please
-baby bear
my first post after dunns rep in HAHHAHAHAHAHA
ahhhhhhhh and then my reads just plummeted downhill after that haha