So there's a number of ways of attacking reads in this game. This means there's lots of ways to think about the game, which can maybe be overwhelming.
Full Living Player List: Unwnd (Dunnstral), Spiffeh, Almost50, Bell, Brian Skies, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gypyx, superbowl9, Petapan, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, Annie Edison, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30
Living Original Forwards: [Unwnd (Dunnstral), Spiffeh, Almost50, Bell, Brian Skies, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gypyx] at least 2 scum are confirmed in this pool
Living Original Inverted: [superbowl9, Petapan, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, Annie Edison, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30] at least 2 scum are confirmed in this pool
SoN1 [Start of night 1] Forwards: [Dunn, Spiffeh, Annie, Brian, GX, A50, Bell] at least 1 scum is confirmed in this pool that killed Imperium, and that scum is either strongman or Bell is scum
SoN2 Forwards: [Brian, GX, Dunn, Spiffeh, Annie, Bell] at least 1 scum is confirmed in this pool, that killed Muffin
Current Forwards: skitter30, Annie Edison (notscience/The Bulge), Dunnstral unwnd
superbowl9, Bell, Brian Skies, Gypyx
Current Inverted: Almost50, PookyTheMagicalBear, Spiffeh, Petapan, Deacon Blues (fferyllt/borkjerfkin), Dandelion Wine (Cephrir/Cabd), midwaybear, Firebringer, Lady Lambdadelta
Flip orders:
Living Original Forwards: [Unwnd (Dunnstral), Spiffeh, Almost50, Bell, Brian Skies, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gypyx] at least 2 scum are confirmed in this pool
I would flip this list in the following pools: [A50 Pooky] Spiffeh [GX,Dunnstral,Brian] Bell if looking for the original scum in this timeline
A50 posts more random Austin powers memes as scum, he lacks paranoia about Annie Edison, and he accepted a turnstile that would deny himself tracker results. His play is mostly uninteresting and therefore scummy. He did do one interesting thing, which was combine a reads list off Brian and Annie's reads lists, but after the other issues he's a pretty high likelihood red flip.
Pooky's built almost his entire iso in the other thread around Firebringer which is weird and scummy.
Living Original Inverted: [superbowl9, Petapan, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, Annie Edison, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30]
I would flip this list in the following pools: Firebringer, [skitter30,Annie Edison], LLD, SB9, [petapan, midwaybear] [Dandelion, Deacon]
SoN1 Forwards: [Dunn, Spiffeh, Annie, Brian, GX, A50, Bell]
Solving this night's kill is playing "find the strongman"
In terms of Strongman Likelihood I'd go Spiffeh, Annie, Brian, GX, A50, Dunn, Bell -- this is not a list of scumreads, more a list of how easily I'd see the roleclaim flipping strongman
Since A50 claimed a tracker result on Dunn night 1 that was also received by Annie, it would require an Annie+A50+Dunnstral scumteam for Dunnstral to be a scum strongman that killed imperium, so we can likely just rule that out. I believe Bell his claim.
I think multitasking tracker/strongman is unlikely, so I don't think A50 is likely strongman.
There are different reasons to argue for Spiffeh, Annie, Brian, or GX
-Annie was turnstiled in with probably at least 2 scum backing his turnstile, so it's not really that unreasonable to me for there to be a forwards strongman tracker receiver. I did think NS probably left scumrange at EoD1 when interacting with Titus but I'm not certain of this and I really didn't like NS's titus hammer or the AtE NS used in response to my pushes.
-Brian is a 1-shot second turnstile activator or something. I think Titus thought Brian was the most likely redflip in this timeline. I don't like his push on Bell today. But he's also seemed townie sometimes. I can see a strongman 1-shot turnstile activator if he's like, supposed to be the flavor of the Sator character himself or something, idk.
-GX claimed VT so it's not surprising people kinda want to PoE there. I argued he was town for dumbtelling Imperium as macho when they are confirmed not to be macho. That hasn't convinced several other people tho.
-Spiffeh has softed that he has power in the other timeline, but was okay not being turnstiled early on. I actually can see Spiffeh being a scum strongman pretty easily; he's been slow to hardclaim, his push A50 could have been s/s distancing or even s/t if I'm wrong on A50, his play has often been forgettable, Boon had Spiffeh as scum and Boon was scum with Spiffeh in the Boon vs Pooky game so he had very recent experience with scum spiffeh.
Overall I think solving for the strongman shot will be rather difficult though, especially since we can't actually do anything about spiffeh in this timeline and because there's just varying reasons to townread or suspect anyone in those 4 names to be the strongman.
SoN2 Forwards: [Brian, GX, Dunn, Spiffeh, Annie, Bell]
someone in this list of names killed muffin. the problem here is now that without the tracker result, if like, Dunn was just a multitasking scum neighborizer then he could easily drop a shot on muffin, so he's not as ruled out now. Aside from that I think if Spiffeh was like a 1-shot strongman then it'd make sense for him to do the kill and then purple room turnstile out. Mech on this night is weird.
Full Living Player List: Unwnd (Dunnstral), Spiffeh, Almost50, Bell, Brian Skies, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gypyx, superbowl9, Petapan, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, Annie Edison, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30
Town at top, scum at bottom
Hard town:
Bell -- I just played vs scum bell, and this isn't scum bell. He's town, he's town doctor, you don't need to read him, if you ignore every other read you can probably count on this one
Muddled but more likely to be town:
Gypyx -- I think the macho towntell was good, his iso mostly just pushing Titus is bad. My towntell argument could be crap. Time will tell.
Brian -- Titus's top pick for scum, I still think his role is usually more likely to be town, don't like his push on Bell. Felt like some of his posts were too sassy to be scum but ehh.
Deacon and Dandelion -- Ceph feels pretty different from when I've seen him scum. Deacon has said several things that felt very tonally town. I trust that they're town more than I trust their reads, though. My recommendation is to think about these slots later if the game isn't lost by then, and I discourage you from just being inclined to blindly sheep them.
Dunn -- Everytime Dunn writes anything I feel like I'm staring into the face of death, listening to scum explain the most polite and effective way to lose the game for town. That being said unwnd's replace out was like, almost certainly town, and shelly's impression that unwnd's takes on the other thread's reads were also probably town. There's room for error here, and it almost would surprise me for both Dunn and Brian's roles to be town because generally 'has thing that lets you interact with other timeline' veers a little bit more toward bad guys in the movie. But flavor spec generally has not helped this game and has actually hurt. I kinda feel like just *off vibe* I should be voting Dunn actually, but he's a) never ever the strongman and b) very likely town for unwnd, even though his posts on their own make me feel like I'm talking to someone who is going to kill me 'later, when I'm no longer of use.'
Annie -- Still have more issues with this slot than most of the others in forwards, but it would still just surprise me to see the EoD1 NS flip scum, even though the Titus hammer feels scummy, the AtE feels scummy, the constant play around Deacon and Dandelion feels scummy, ehh.
Muddled reads:
midwaybear -- kinda like the tone of most of his posts for town, his solving isn't particularly whelming, nulltown, won't feel bad if he flips scum
Petapan -- has pushed a lot of slots, which means he's pushed a lot of misflipbait, and was probably involved in why things like S_S getting turnstiled happen. I thought him coming after GX after I fos'd GX at Eod2 and thread was locked and then dropping it later felt weird. I'm not impressed by LLD's push on this slot though and think it's a complicated read, not sure why people are saying obvtown or obvscum tbh.
LLD -- don't wanna talk about this read. Dead null though. (Also the reason this post exists)
SB9 -- didn't like his wallpost case on Gamma which occurred here --
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12428936 -- but later warmed up to his slot a little when he seemed to be trying to outcompete to see who could be more town about mech decisions and his push to turnstile skitter might have reflected a town POV. I didn't like him threatening to self-hammer vs. GX, that felt scummy. Muddled slot for me, although I've felt town there sometimes.
skitter -- skitter's role does indeed sound weird in conjunction with imperium + bell although it's not necessarily impossible with a scum strongman since doctor and strongman can cc each other from the watcher guilty.
Spiffeh -- I still liked his development on my slot, he's felt tonally town sometimes, but idk for some reason he feels like the most likely to be a strongman to me right now. So I kinda have more mechanical suspicions of this slot than tonal suspicions. Just based on how the game has gone, basically.
Likely scumflips:
Pooky -- seems to be building entire iso around firebringer, almost no reflection on reads, seems night and day from his townplay, the boon push was literally the towniest thing about this slot and that's really saying something
A50 -- As described above, his iso is unengaged and now half filled with austin powers memes so probably scum
Firebringer -- seems like obvious scum to me, I don't really get why anyone is townreading this slot, he has at no point cared about any of his pushes. I kinda liked at one point his thought process about skitter, but at this point given the timing of when he pushed skitter (early d1 and then d3 when numbers were screwy) I'd just as easily see fire/skitter being s/s -- playing very politically, I have more feelings here but don't want to go into more detail, the retracted cop claim is NAI but his solving is scummy
tl;dr?
Don't fucking flip bell