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Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:07 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
i dunno you sound pretty agitated

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm
by Milobird
I'm not I think. I'm pretty aware of my own emotions because I have to keep track of those.

-Bell

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:10 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
ok~!

hope you are feeling better <3

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:31 pm
by mastina
In post 6531, SirCakez wrote:
In post 6491, mastina wrote:(Yes, said Vig was Pooky, but I have my concerns about clearing him for this.)
can you elaborate on this?
Well, read .
Add to those nine accidental possibilities the tenth possibility of it being deliberate, just from scum;
The idea is not original to me, but it could just be that Gypyx asked to die and/or it was a team decision.
There could be any number of reasons for this.

They thought that Gypyx's death would damn town;
They thought that Gypyx's death would clear scum;
They thought that Gypyx's role was the weakest scum role;
They thought that Gypyx dead was better than a different scum dead;
They thought that Gypyx was going to die anyway;

And so on and so forth.

Yes, Pooky could coach Gypyx once rolling scum, but he only had 48 hours and Gypyx was not coached through D1. The scumteam could have received Pooky's offer for coaching and then made the collective decision to kill Gypyx anyway.

Or maybe they just didn't have the time to coach Gypyx and decided it'd be better for Gypyx to die.

There's basically a dozen different ways for it to have happened, including that the scumteam decided to invest in Pooky, wanting Pooky to become cleared. Or decided that Pooky would be cleared as damage control after Gypyx's accidental demise.

All of this means that I wouldn't clear Pooky from just the vig.

I would instead look to all of Pooky's play aside from being cleared.

Including, critically, how he was jailkept N3 the night there was no scum kill.

If the scumteam thought Pooky was cleared from vigging Gypyx, then they would in fact have Pooky be the one submitting the kills.

I'll need to double-check if scum are multitasking by default or not, but if scum are not multitasking by default, then whoever performed the scum kill would need to not be using their role.

imaginality had to use his role, so he couldn't do the nightkill without multitasking.
Dwlee was dead.
Woolax was dead.
Gypyx was dead.

So on N3, the only person who would actually use the nightkill would be the last scum, Pooky or Milobird.

And one of those two was Jailkept that night, with no kill happening then.
In post 6527, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:wow I went from cunning scum mastermind to bumbling buffoon p fast
The two are not mutually exclusive.

Even good mechanics players can make errors. They can fail to ask the right question, they can misunderstand an interaction, etc. Good mechanics players have a better grasp of mechanics than the average player--they are not omniscient. They are still human and make human mistakes. Sometimes including...game mechanics, the thing that they are usually good at.

This is doubly so given the limited timeframe of N1. 48 hours is not as much time as we think it is when timezones factor into the equation. And reduction in time means reduction in ability to minimize/eliminate errors. Even the best mechanical players in the world if dropped midway into a situation aren't going to necessarily have the right path mapped out by the end of the deadline.

Plus, a few of the fumbles are explicitly cunning scum mastermind in theory, bumbling buffoon in execution.
In post 6530, SirCakez wrote:except what if mastina just gets NKed here and we get into a huge mess of WIFOM
I mean at this stage probably regardless of who the scum is (but especially if it's Pooky) I'm getting nightkilled here.

I'll
probably
be able to post my Pooky Lean reasons before deadline, but I won't be able to do everything I want to before deadline and I explicitly wanted the time to check my theories and such.

A lot of the things keeping the Pooky lean from being an outright "It's just Pooky" are role/mechanics-based with a side of paranoia regarding how interactive Milobird actually have been throughout the game. (As in, I see mechanical/role-related reasons to doubt that Pooky could be scum, paired with doubts about how much Milobird was actually towning it up throughout the game.)

But the Pooky lean is still there, dominant, at that like ~59% mark, because by play, I've got some VERY big reasons for thinking it's Pooky. Trying to figure out how to word it is what I'm doing now, to get the things across, but to give very short incomplete cliff notes just in case I can't finish the full version:
-Pooky's first mention of me was when I voted Pooky after Wheme jailkept him. That happened on D4. While Pooky said he wasn't reading D1, that still leaves D2 and D3 completely unaccounted for (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky didn't apply any of his mastina policies to me this game (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky has felt like he's doing to me what he thinks I do to him when I am scum (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's been fairly hypocritical today doing the very thing he accused DKKoba of having done previously (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's adamancy in Milobird being town vanished overnight with DKKoba flipping town (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's projecting pretty hard (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)

Probably more but again, this is not a good post to use, this is just my emergency "if I don't get it in before deadline, remember that these were things I said" post, because they are actually pretty damn strong points.

Without the paranoia-on-Milobird paired with the mechanical doubts, the reasons I have actually would push the Pooky read to ~90-95% certainty. It's just that thanks to the mechanical doubts paired with the paranoia on Milobird, they're downgraded from basically-certain-scum into just Pooky-lean (~59%).

(for the record, mechanical doubts largely involve Gypyx interacting with a duo role + the Lunatone/Solrok synergy, again, things I want to investigate but alas, won't get the chance to, I probably should say more here too but given SirCakez already townreads Pooky overall more I don't think elaborating on the mechanical doubts is as important as elaborating on the lean for thinking why it's Pooky in spite of the mechanical doubts)

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:39 pm
by mastina
In post 6535, SirCakez wrote:chow and imaginality look scummy
look at imaginality, KTT, chow
i think Milo is scummy but too scared to shoot them
Goat was shootable but Titus took over the slot
gypyx might be a good target too his iso sucks
i want to shoot imaginality or gypyx
In post 6536, SirCakez wrote:I forgot that I made a post saying I wanted to shoot imaginality or Gypyx
obv Gypyx is the better one to shoot there if you're scum
but Pooky didn't even try to push for chow or Goat slot or KTT who were all town options
Pooky shooting Titus would be a scumclaim from him and he'd know it'd be a scumclaim from him--so he wouldn't have suggested shooting Titus's slot. Plus, you weren't pushing that hard.

Pooky I would assume has history with both kuribo and Malakittens--I would assume that similar to Titus, shooting them would be a scumclaim from him and he'd know it'd be a scumclaim from him. You only mentioned them once anyway.

The only name that I can see Pooky maybe shooting from those posts is chowchow so I think Pooky's options were a lot more limited than you would think, there.

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:44 pm
by mastina
In post 6561, Milobird wrote:Why would we be reluctant to bus woolax when we’re bussing gyphx.
This is a good point btw.

Generally speaking, on D1, a player voting for one scum rather than a different scum is not a sign that player is scum--quite the opposite, it probably is a strong indicator that the player is town. (Source: I have been that player in literally dozens of games, where I voted scum on D1 but the town eliminated a different player who was also scum; I haven't really seen the inverse, of scum voting one scum and letting another scum die without being on the wagon.)
In post 6564, SirCakez wrote:
In post 6561, Milobird wrote:Why would we be reluctant to bus woolax when we’re bussing gyphx.
woolax had a better role? you thought woolax was more savable? Gypyx wanted to die? (lol)
idk
Not knowing is a problem, because Woolax's role was not in fact better, and Woolax was not in fact savable. Gypyx wanting to die is valid, but that's a point against Pooky more than a point against Milobird. :P

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:46 pm
by mastina
In post 6586, SirCakez wrote:Milo did hardly anything yesterday and just sort of watched the Koba lim happen
I think that this is an incredibly unfair painting of their play btw.

I was there.

I did not think Milobird was doing hardly anything yesterday.

I did not think Milobird just watched the Koba elimination happen.

Remember--I was scumreading Milobird yesterday.

If I thought Milobird was doing hardly anything yesterday and/or I thought Milobird was just letting PookyVKoba happen yesterday.
As the person scumreading Milobird yesterday.

I would have fucking said so.

The fact that I did not say so means that Milobird was not in fact doing hardly anything yesterday and was not in fact just letting PookyVKoba happen yesterday.

Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:51 pm
by mastina
oh, huh, there's actually 12 hours left.

Yeah I've got the time.

If you don't mind, I'm going to procrastinate now because I feel the need to do some other things first.

Eat, use bathroom, rest (maybe even nap), I had a long work day and been depressed all day so like, being tired = need some recharge before writing the Pooky Lean out in full.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:26 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
Mastina, me not interacting with you D2/D3 is mostly because I was busy having fun meming with Koba/Firebringer.

I didn't even notice you were in the game until later cuz there's like a lot of people playing.

It's a large theme I don't really feel the need to interact with every person all the time every day.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:58 am
by mastina
In post 6628, mastina wrote:-Pooky's first mention of me was when I voted Pooky after Wheme jailkept him. That happened on D4. While Pooky said he wasn't reading D1, that still leaves D2 and D3 completely unaccounted for (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky didn't apply any of his mastina policies to me this game (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky has felt like he's doing to me what he thinks I do to him when I am scum (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's been fairly hypocritical today doing the very thing he accused DKKoba of having done previously (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's adamancy in Milobird being town vanished overnight with DKKoba flipping town (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)
-Pooky's projecting pretty hard (I have more to say on this, again, this is just my emergency cliffnote version, I will be elaborating on this)

Probably more but again, this is not a good post to use, this is just my emergency "if I don't get it in before deadline, remember that these were things I said" post, because they are actually pretty damn strong points.

Without the paranoia-on-Milobird paired with the mechanical doubts, the reasons I have actually would push the Pooky read to ~90-95% certainty. It's just that thanks to the mechanical doubts paired with the paranoia on Milobird, they're downgraded from basically-certain-scum into just Pooky-lean (~59%).

(for the record, mechanical doubts largely involve Gypyx interacting with a duo role + the Lunatone/Solrok synergy, again, things I want to investigate but alas, won't get the chance to, I probably should say more here too but given SirCakez already townreads Pooky overall more I don't think elaborating on the mechanical doubts is as important as elaborating on the lean for thinking why it's Pooky in spite of the mechanical doubts)
In post 6628, mastina wrote:If scum are not multitasking by default, then whoever performed the scum kill would need to not be using their role.
imaginality had to use his role, so he couldn't do the nightkill without multitasking.
Dwlee was dead. Woolax was dead. Gypyx was dead.

So on N3, the only person who would actually use the nightkill would be the last scum, Pooky or Milobird.
And one of those two was Jailkept that night, with no kill happening then.
In post 6490, mastina wrote:
In post 6474, Milobird wrote:It should be noted before I go that Mastina has little reason to suspect or question pooky as scum. It would be easier for her just to let pooky lose the game for town. But that’s sort of conjecture. Just a random thought, but I sort of feel like I’m conf biasing there maybe.

-Bell
In post 6488, mastina wrote:
In post 6435, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 6432, Milobird wrote:A) if she is scum I can rest peacefully knowing that this game isn’t my fault
B) Pookys push on us is actually awful (still waiting for him to provide examples instead of general statements)
C) Pooky literally hasn’t reevaluated once, which should tell you that he came into melo with the express decision to 1v1 off what everyone else said yesterday. He literally went and checked mastina posting frequency but hasn’t tried to point out EXACTLY where we are BSing.
Why would I re-evaluate when I've literally never been wrong on Mastina once.
That Pooky is saying this though is important to the Pooky lean.
In post 6487, mastina wrote:
In post 6432, Milobird wrote:
In post 6422, SirCakez wrote:Milo why did you abandon your mastina push? because I said I wouldn't vote her?
A) if she is scum I can rest peacefully knowing that this game isn’t my fault
B) Pookys push on us is actually awful (still waiting for him to provide examples instead of general statements)
C) Pooky literally hasn’t reevaluated once, which should tell you that he came into melo with the express decision to 1v1 off what everyone else said yesterday. He literally went and checked mastina posting frequency but hasn’t tried to point out EXACTLY where we are BSing.
In post 6486, mastina wrote:
In post 6415, Milobird wrote:I have no idea why you think my scum game has improved a single millimeter, the more likely argument is just that you can't backtrack and you're stuck.
In post 6484, mastina wrote:
In post 6408, Milobird wrote:Funnily enough your accuracy and propensity to be on scum wagons is a point against you because the rest of us look like clowns in comparison and towns tend to look more clownish as a result of their ignorance of who is and isn't scum.

e.g., Koba pushing at us and then 180'ing on to you because they sorted us.
Bookmarking this, as it is DOUBLY part of my Pooky lean.
(The second is Koba related.)
In post 6483, mastina wrote:
In post 6407, Milobird wrote:I still don't follow how town you comes to the conclusion that I'm harder to read than Mastina tho.
Like we're both equally terrible scum. So. Arguably I'm worse scum actually. It's one of the reasons I think you're scum Pooky, I don't think either of us have looked scummy this game from a bird's eye view.
I'm aware Notty disagreed, but like, yeah.
In post 6482, mastina wrote:
In post 6406, Milobird wrote:...No? Mastina isn't confirmed, so there's merit in it. I'm well aware that saying this stuff can piss them off and cause them to retaliate vote me. Still gunna do it.
Bookmarking this, as it is important to my Pooky lean.
(Also as a reminder, the post where I used reminder words like 'mirror'? Also part of the Pooky lean.)
In post 6058, mastina wrote:
In post 6005, Milobird wrote:I will point out that Mastina has been right on (2 or 3 eliminations this game?)

At the very least Mastina had more skin in the game.
I've had basically every slot as town/scum at some point, so you could say that I've had perfect reads, shit reads, or anywhere in-between the extremes, and you'd be right. :P
I'll say that I had Woolax, Gypyx, and imaginality as voteworthy the entire game tho, and that Dwlee was null before I deduced their role and thought it town.

This said, I've more to say on Pooky, actually somewhat related to my gamelong reads, but again, I need to be home for it.
(3 home things: defense, research, and the 3+1 point thingy. Mental note, is 'mirror'+'arrow'+'project' +1.)
So basically.

My concern on Pooky has to do a lot with his approach on slots in the game.

He didn't interact with me until D4, and even then, it was very brief:
In post 4397, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:its ok Mastina!town loves to vote for me she's like my biggest fan
In post 4436, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Mastina only scumreads me when she's town
when she's scum her read of me is always "the towniest town to ever town"
This was on D4, after Wheme claimed the jailkeep on Pooky which at the time looked like a solid guilty.
In post 4718, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:mala titus mathblade cakes 10000% town
pooky milo mastina v town
some people r left over here
In post 4749, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:mala titus mathblade cakes all checked innos
pooky milo mastina are town af
koba chowchow I can't remember who else is playing
These are the next mentions of me.
In post 5251, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:lol wut
mastina is so far out of her scum range she couldn't find her way back to it with GPS
With this as the next.

You might remember that as a fairly recent post all things considered; I think that 5251 was a D8 post?

Suffice to say though, that Pooky's interactions with me are very very sparse.

Pooky didn't do
anything
that I would expect him to do.

Pooky normally takes a look at my readslists and does the inversion trick, trying to find the scum at the top of my readslist--and if he finds none, then he usually thinks (with a decent degree of accuracy) that the reason why is that I am scum.

More than that, Pooky has been steadfast that I'm town and out of my scum range.

That's true
now
, but it wasn't at the time Pooky was first interacting with me.

It wasn't until we eliminated imaginality that I was really out of my scum range--that was what, D4? D5? Somewhere around there.

Before that, my post count was actually fairly low, and so too was the amount of content I was posting.

Yet I wasn't absent entirely.

I was there, I was posting, I was around, but I wasn't the strongly-town self that I am now.

Why didn't Pooky interact with me? He always checks my readslists to invert them; he's not done that once this game.
If Pooky thought I was scum, that'd be one thing--because my readslists as scum tend to be more accurate.
But Pooky didn't think I was scum; he thought I was town. NOW it's obvious--but why did he think it back
before
it was obvious? Why was I not scum to him? I wasn't out of my scumrange yet at the time.
Pooky didn't comment or interact with me basically at all.

Pooky has his own meta standards for reading me, but didn't use them at all this game. The closest was him going "mastina's always wrong on me so her saying I'm scum means I'm town", but that in of itself was a bit disingenuous because I've got a perfect track record of reading Pooky when I am scum, and Pooky didn't say I was town when commenting on my scumread on him. Why was there none of the usual work from Pooky that he shows on me?

It's not due to this being a Large Theme with a lot of players--Pooky has done this to me when there's far far more players than there were in this game. Like, this is a 21-player game. By D2, it was an 18-player game.
18 players.

Pooky has definitely put the work into reading me when there was 17 players, and has also put in the work to read me when there were
twenty-four
players. (Pooky did not ignore me in DEFCON 5 the way he didn't interact with me in this game.)
In post 2871, mastina wrote:
In post 2218, Wisdom wrote:New poe: {Pooky, Titus, Dwlee, KTT}
That said, the only name I'm not really interested in sheeping you on here is Kitty Trauma Team. Would vote the other three.
Why didn't Pooky notice this?
In post 2882, mastina wrote:
In post 2572, imaginality wrote:Does this meta apply to all days? In Owner's Market Blitz mastina only mentioned it as a D1 meta.
I was under the impression it was a D1 tell that Pooky has never bussed a scumbuddy on D1 before.
Past D1, I would assume he
has
, although I'd expect it to still be a rarity, but I've no way of really knowing for sure.

Ralts/PookytheMagicalBear

imaginality
The Goat/Titus
T3
SleepyKrew/Valkyrie Dimension
Alexandrite/Gamma Emerald

(did a slight reordering of the nulls to be more accurate since chowchow is the towniest and Pooky the least townie of them, and also have a couple promoted reads, but mostly the same here)
Why didn't Pooky have anything to say about this?
In post 4128, mastina wrote:So removing that, it leaves:
Save The Dragons
Wisdom
imaginality
WhemeStar
chowchow (Anonymous Hydra)
Malakittens / Kitty Trauma Team (kuribo + Malakittens)
PookyTheMagicalBear / Ralts
DkKoba Thestatusquo (has roleclaimed but this roleclaim doesn't affect my read)

From there, I still have a townread on STD and Wisdom (I realize this isn't universal) and think that Malakittens and DKKoba are still less likely to be scum from play alone.

Which leaves my personal initial "PoE" (it's not really one since some of the names here aren't so much scumreads as much as "I personally cannot get a read there RIGHT NOW even if others can and think the slot is town") as:
{imaginality, WhemeStar, chowchow, Pooky} for 2 scum remaining.
Why did Pooky have nothing to say about my POE here which included him?

While I briefly had Pooky as a vote and he commented on me then, why did he say nothing when I then locked him as town?

I was locking him as town.

Pooky has, previously, treated me locking him as town as basically a scumclaim.

Why didn't he do so here?

Pooky hasn't reevaluated or reassessed me, in spite of there being classic red flags he's previously associated with my scumgame. Yes, I am NOW out of my scumrange--but Pooky never had a thought about me being scum during the times PRIOR to me being outside of my scumrange. Why was I
never
in consideration for being scum to Pooky?

It's as if Pooky is doing the very thing he says I do to him when I am scum.
He describes it as, "when mastina is scum, she always has me as the towniest town to have ever towned, but when mastina is town she has me as scum".

Well, Pooky this game has had me as the towniest town to have ever towned, but when he is town, he has previously not shown this attitude as far as I can remember.

Pooky has also done the very thing he accused DKKoba of doing.
Remember when Pooky accused DKKoba of changing reads on who was locktown vs who was lockscum on D8 compared to D9?

He did the
exact
thing on D9 he accused DKKoba of having done on D8.
In post 5726, DkKoba wrote:
In post 5722, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 5450, DkKoba wrote:this is also the viability i keep in when thinking of pooky/mastina being scum and its part of why theyre eliminated from being scum. that just isnt reasonable for them to let imaginality be so bad and throw as godfather.
scum koba can't keep track of all the lies they tell rofl
i learned something new about your scum meta between then and now
prove your scum meta has coaching and maybe you might have a point :) but I know for a fact that there are scum games where you let your scumbuds do whatever even if its terrible :)
In post 5656, DkKoba wrote:
In post 5654, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 5651, Milobird wrote:
In post 5650, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:ITT koba swears up and down they r spewed town by themselves
Excuse me, but what's wrong with this tactic.
its nonsensical gibberish.
you have the same scumtells as SS being allergic to certain lines of discussion its funny :3
at least youll spew out a little bullshit about stuff but you are too afraid to go in depth at all
In post 5636, DkKoba wrote:
In post 5633, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:lol at koba giving up and deciding to try to convict ralts
its still your slot buddy
I can't find the quote I was looking for, but Pooky basically said that DKKoba was, after STD was dead, opening up mislims by changing their read on players.

Pooky proceeded to do precisely that today.

Pooky has shown some hypocrisy in his reads by projecting things that he says they are doing when he has done the exact same thing.

Like, I can quote all of Pooky's reasons for Milobird being town, and they are quite extensive:
In post 5588, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:its not milobird

bell way out of scum range


koba is the last possible baddie
In post 5778, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
I've literally never misread bell in my life


there's no way he suddenly went from "unable to post as scum" to "top posting god scum bell"

it's literally just koba
In post 5874, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 5872, Milobird wrote:This is my first post here today
you're voting for me
you're bad
have fun losing
What happened to the certainty that Pooky has never misread Bell before?

What happened to Pooky's defense of Milobird?

What happened to Milobird being hard-cleared?

And why did Pooky decide that Milobird was less clear than me come today?

Yes
, someone would need to be scum--but what makes me be more-town to Pooky than Milobird?

What makes me be so unscum to Pooky compared to Milobird who Pooky has apparently never misread before and yet Pooky is claiming that Milobird is the last scum?

Why didn't Pooky think that I could be scum? Pooky is less familiar, less intimately knowledgeable, about my play compared to Milobird's play.
Why didn't Pooky keep the townread on Milobird and think that I could be scum?
Why didn't Pooky reassess both of us? If Pooky came to the conclusion after reassessing that I couldn't be scum, that'd be one thing--but Pooky never did this reassessment at all. Pooky never once did this work to sort me.

Pooky just had me as town, and had Milobird as town, and then shifted the read on Milobird without one iota of effort to focus on me.
Yes, Pooky put in work to defend me from Milobird--but that was Pooky going out of his way to prove that I am town.
Not Pooky figuring out that I am town.

The difference between the two is going out of your way to prove I am town means you are already assuming or know I am town;
Figuring out I am town means you are sorting me as town and showing your work.

Pooky did the former, of defending me as town, not the latter, of sorting me as town.

When it comes to incentives, this fits more with Pooky-scum than Pooky-town.

Pooky-town has a drive to not get things wrong.
Pooky-town has a drive to be right.

Why, if Pooky is town, does this drive to be right mean absolutely zero thought given to my alignment with literally all of it being defense of me that presupposes I am already town? It doesn't make sense for Pooky to have NOT sorted me at all. (Basically, put it another way: Milobird's approach here is actually the townier of the two because Milobird
isn't
locked into one player being the final scum and is considering both.)

But as scum, there's a very obvious incentive:
Pooky does not want to 1v1 me.
Pooky
might
win that 1v1, sure--but it's
easier
for Pooky to win the 1v1 versus Milobird.
Not easy, mind you. A 1v1 versus me is gonna be hell, and a 1v1 versus Milobird made up of Bell and notscience is going to be nightmarish, so no matter what, it's going to be difficult.

But given the choice between the two, Milobird is by far the easier person to 1v1. Bell is many things; charismatic is not among them. notscience is also fairly lackluster in the convincing others field.

I can do a better job of defending Milobird than Milobird can; I can write a better case for Pooky being scum than Milobird can. So like...Pooky knows that Milobird is, while not EASY to mislim, compared to me, EASIER to mislim.

As scum, I see the incentive clear as day; focus on eliminating the player who is less of a pain in the ass to verse, especially given the other townies' stances.

I was scumreading Milobird so would be receptive to Milobird being scum;
SirCakez has townread Pooky the entire game so would be receptive to Milobird being scum and SirCakez has previously scumread Milobird.

In contrast SirCakez has continued to insist I am town at every stage in the game and while Milobird has had one half think I am scum the other half has contested that. Meaning a push on me would be an entire order of magnitude harder to maintain.

It's easier for Pooky to not suspect me, because Pooky suspecting me makes me more likely to OMGUS him. Pooky knows this. He knows I will OMGUS people with burden of proficiencying them--so he would know that if he suspected me, I'd pick up on it being bullshit.

Pooky said "why would I reevaluate mastina when I've never been wrong on mastina once", but that logic doesn't hold given he's also never been wrong on Bell once--yet clearly has reevaluated Bell.
Why the reevaluation on Bell who Pooky has never been wrong on, but NOT a reevaluation on ME who Pooky has never been wrong on?

Pooky's reasons for townreading me also are not the normal ones. Pooky's inventing excuses it seems like to NOT suspect me, rather than displaying his normal tells.

And the point about Pooky not pointing out why people are scum is valid.

Pooky said that it was DKKoba just because it was DKKoba. That was it. Pooky said that I was town and that Milobird was town so there was an implicit "DKKoba is scum because nobody else can be", but Pooky did not go into explaining the read at all. Pooky didn't investigate, didn't look, didn't assess, DKKoba's alignment critically. Pooky just went "lol ur scum" to DKKoba.

And after DKKoba flipped town? Now Pooky is doing the exact same thing to Milobird. There is an implicit "Milobird is scum because nobody else can be", but Pooky does not explain the read at all. Pooky isn't investigating, isn't assessing, things critically. Pooky's just shading what Milobird is doing, saying "lol this is scum" to it.

Yet Bell was on-point:
Pooky was previously on record as saying Bell
could
not
be this good as scum.
Pooky said that Bell was fundamentally incapable of being this as scum.
Pooky insisted that Bell literally couldn't do what Bell has done this game as scum.

And yet today that all went out the window...why?

Again, I can't see the town motivation for throwing the Bell meta specifically out the window without having thrown out the mastina meta as well. Why discard the accurate read on Milobird without discarding the accurate read on mastina?

I CAN see the scum motivation--having no choice but to choose a 1v1 to enter and deciding Milobird was easier than mastina.

Milobird is also right that Pooky's accuracy here is precisely an issue.

Again.

Pooky has been VERY accurate.

Pooky has a basically flawless record at reading both me and Bell.

Pooky, as town, SHOULD be accurate enough to have
never made the mistaken read in the first place
.
If Pooky is town, then he was wrong on a read that he should NEVER have been wrong on in the first place.
Either he should never have townread me, or he should never have townread Bell. But he townread both--which fits with the typical Pooky as town expectation. It's expected that Pooky as town would know our alignments here and get them right. So how did he get the alignment wrong on Milobird in the first place if he's town?

I struggle to see it.

Whereas if he's scum, it's clear as day; he gave the correct read for as long as was possible, and then only when there was no other option did he switch it from the previous correct (and expected) read into the wrong (but necessary) read.

And again--why was Pooky right on me but wrong on Milobird?
Why was Pooky sure he couldn't have made a mistake on me?

I've had plenty of town players be wrong on my alignment before when expecting to be right on it. Thinking I was town when I wasn't, or vice-versa. In spite of their prior usual accuracy. Why no paranoia on me
at all
? Why not a single iota of thought that I could maybe potentially be scum, at any stage?

So again, Milobird was right--Milobird investigating me is something that could make me more likely to vote them.
Pooky defending me, pocketing me, is something that would make me less likely to vote him.
If I expect people to be right on me, and I expect all three of Pooky/Bell/notscience to read me correctly, then the playerslot who did so is more likely to seem town to me.

But Pooky's play here looks like it is deliberately exploiting that tendency, that trait, of mine.


I'm sorry, this is a mess, probably missing a bunch, probably overlooking things, but like:
This, plus the jailkeep on Pooky, plus the general lack of townness from Pooky, all contribute to thinking that Pooky looks quite scum. DKKoba raised many valid points about Pooky and I probably should've quoted more of those, too, but it all adds up.

In contrast, the only reasons I can think of for Milobird to be scum are specifically reasons Pooky wouldn't be scum. Milobird has nothing by play to be scum here. The only reason for Milobird to be scum here is if Pooky couldn't be scum here, essentially.

Again, there's enough things that indicate Pooky might be "couldn't be scum" to prevent this gigantic post from being more than a Pooky lean.

I do mean it, it's ~59% Pooky and not more.

But I feel it important to say this much.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:59 am
by mastina
In post 6633, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:It's a large theme I don't really feel the need to interact with every person all the time every day.
Prior experience with you has me pressing X to Doubt on this.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:02 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
uh what?

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:03 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
like ai upick i rep'd in and mostly interacted with tweetie and got pockit'd by her. that's just how i play large theme games.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:13 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
like I think you might have this opinion of my townplay as being very tryhard/good/strong but I am actually like a lazy bum 99% of the time.

I usually only tryhard one game at a time because I have a very OCD mindset.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:15 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
like if i care about a game I will like go obessively overboard on it but if I don't care I kind of treat it as a meme/for fun social thing.

I have been cutting down on how much I care cuz its not fun for me/the other players for me to be super loud and thread dominant.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:55 am
by Milobird
I’m good at convincing people when I want to I just genuinely didn’t feel the need to steer the ship early on and then I got ignored late

:(

Mastina clearly forgets who got elected first in FGO

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:57 am
by Titus
I'm going to reluctantly endorse the Pooky lim since both Cakez and mastina lean that way and are invested. Logic says Milobird imo though. I haven't read any of the back and forth and I'm out if time to.

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:58 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
I town

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:58 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 6640, Milobird wrote:I’m good at convincing people when I want to I just genuinely didn’t feel the need to steer the ship early on and then I got ignored late

:(

Mastina clearly forgets who got elected first in FGO
NOTTTTTTTTTYYYYYYYY

Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:19 am
by May and Brendan
VC 9.FINAL
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate someone


Not Voting:
Milobird, mastina, PookyTheMagicalBear, SirCakez

Deadline:
(expired on 2021-12-02 15:00:00)

Mod Notes: BDSP is hilariously broken, the world record any% speedrun is down to like 17 minutes. But a patch came out yesterday so that may change

Nobody was executed on Day 9. Night 9 begins now and ends in (expired on 2021-12-04 16:00:00). PM us if you want a fast night.

Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:07 am
by May and Brendan
mastina has died. She was...

Spoiler:
Image
Sudowoodo / アブソル / Usokkie[

Imitation Pokemon
Pokédex Number: #185
Height: 3'11" (1.2 m)
Weight: 83.8 lbs. (38.0 kg)
Gender Ratio: 50 % Male / 50% Female

ImageImage

MIMIC:
A move for learning one of the opponent's moves, for use during that battle only.
◓ You will gain a 1-shot use of the first move to target you
◓ If you are targeted by multiple abilities for the first time during the same phase, the ability will be randomized
You are a member of the
Town
.
You win when all members of
Team Rocket
have fainted.

Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:10 am
by May and Brendan
Day 10 starts now and ends (expired on 2021-12-14 17:00:00) from now


VC 10.00
With 3 alive, it takes 2 to eliminate someone


Not Voting:
Milobird, PookyTheMagicalBear, SirCakez

Deadline:
(expired on 2021-12-14 17:00:00)

Mod Notes: Titus is V/LA until the 9th. Shiny hunting Beldum in Sword wooo. It's actually kinda cool because shiny hunting is significantly different in each of the 3 switch games, so you have some options there.

Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:12 am
by Milobird
Yup. That makes sense.

-Bell

Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:13 am
by Milobird
There is no wifom, It's just Pooky.
Killing you and letting Mastina do her own thing for victory is really all you need to know. There's zero reason for us to kill her.

-Bell

Posted: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:14 am
by Milobird
There's no purpose for us to gambit here. No reason that makes sense.
Pooky will come in here and say it makes sense when he twists himself into knots, but nah.
It's just Pooky.

Also, I told you guys it was Pooky.

-Bell