A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[podoboq]

Only three people I think haven't claimed flavor
If too many claim flavor then scum can just NK whoever didn't claim flavor and give him an out if he's scum

And bg can just protect that player. Like, the benefit of you not claiming isn't 0%, but it's also not astronomical, and I don't think it holds a candle to the benefit we get out of you being obvtown. If Cerb can confirm you after your claim, and Cerb is killed tonight, and we lose that opportunity, then where does that leave us? If you're SK, you can just kill Cerb tonight, and tomorrow say "Well shucks, now cerb can't conf me. I'm from The Book of Mormon, guys."

Also the fact he said he got no result night 1 and 2 means he's probably not a rolecop or anything like that if he's scum

TO wasn't scum. I don't understand how that's somehow still a question to you.

[podoboq]

that SvS exchange

I assume you mean me and somebody? Cakez or TPP?

[dramonic]

...
That SvSvS exchange!
:p

[podoboq]

...
That SvSvS exchange!
:p

If we're all three scum, just vote for the SK with me and take away their night kill.

[The Pied Piper]

Nobody would ever have seen that vig crumb. It's the kind of crumb scum are more likely to do than town because if you change your mind, chances are nobody saw it anyway.

[pistachi0n]

You're right that SK!me wouldn't know who to buddy up with, which would explain why I buddied a bit with Axel and why I've buddied with Cakez (sorry bro, pretty confident about this one.) But is there actually a world in which I'm the SK here? The whole reason we're talking about it is because I brought up the possibility of it.

Saying things along the line of "I wouldn't do this if I were the SK/I wouldn't know what to do if I were the SK" is useless unless you've been SK enough for us to look through your meta.

[podoboq]

Nobody would ever have seen that vig crumb. It's the kind of crumb scum are more likely to do than town because if you change your mind, chances are nobody saw it anyway.

I have pretty little experience with crumbs. I can point to my other one game on site where I discovered what crumbs were for the first time, because this is my only experience playing mafia in a forum.

The only ways I know to do it are to anagram something (which was done in the Micro I played) and to spell something out using all of the capital letters in a post. I feel like "IMVIG" being spelled out in a post where I'm being intentionally vague and handwavey, after saying "I know who the vig is, but I'm can't tell you why," is a pretty easy crumb to find if you're looking for crumbs, and I don't understand why scum wouldn't be reading into it. If anything, I worried it was too obvious.

[podoboq]

You're right that SK!me wouldn't know who to buddy up with, which would explain why I buddied a bit with Axel and why I've buddied with Cakez (sorry bro, pretty confident about this one.) But is there actually a world in which I'm the SK here? The whole reason we're talking about it is because I brought up the possibility of it.

Saying things along the line of "I wouldn't do this if I were the SK/I wouldn't know what to do if I were the SK" is useless unless you've been SK enough for us to look through your meta.

The SK had a clean avenue to win the game if I hadn't blown it up. I'm not saying "I wouldn't play this way as the SK," I'm saying NO SK would every do that to themselves, because now they basically can't win. There's no way I was going to get enough towncred for bringing this up to offset completely shooting myself in the foot if I were SK. So the only reasonable thing to consider is that I'm town trying to shed some light before I get lynched or that I'm mafia trying to destroy SK's game and get them lynched in my place. But TPP is saying that my interactions with flipped mafia preclude the latter from being a good possibility.

It's an inconsistency I'm trying to address.

[The Pied Piper]

Do you look at the capital letters in every single post in a 269 page game? Do you expect most people to do this?

In a much shorter game than this one, in an open setup where there was only one role to look for, I did once caught scum fake crumbing jailkeeper with the capital letters thing, but I only had to look for the letter J, which is an unusual enough letter in English. They didn't counterclaim the real jailkeeper, so I lynched them.

In a game of this size, in a post in the middle of your ISO, not conveniently near the beginning of the thread where most people crumb their roles, it's very unlikely that anybody would've ever seen it. Most people aren't reading the game that closely.


pedit: I was saying your interactions with flipped mafia make you less likely to be mafia, not less likely to be town.

[podoboq]

I looked for them on Day 2 in response to seeing the flip. Marquis did too, apparently. If he knew they were lovers on day 1 and then decided to start this conversation today about how the scumteam might have known then he has balls of titanium.

Crumbhunting plays an important part in my town game. I successfully caught Bella as scum because she crumbed "JAILS MM&E" in her usual crumbing style in open 618 but did not counterclaim the real jailkeeper. (capital letters, right to left, top to bottom; there's a superfluous capital I in there too but it doesn't count, only the first L in LLD counts. Another clue was that she capitalises some people's names but not others, as was the word Jeez which she hadn't used on the site previously. we were a reasonable jailkeeping target because we were practically an innocent child that game.)

I mean, it's easier in an open setup and it's easier with friends that you know how they usually crumbs things, and it's much easier in hindsight after a flip, but in a closed setup if you can catch somebody crumbing multiple roles or crumbing something but not acting like the thing that they crumbed...maybe that's not how you scumhunt but for me it's one of the tools in my toolbox.

I

think they know what they were doing with that dump.

M

y opinion is that they're smart enough to not reveal information that would make the game worse for town, as town.

V

ig is obviously a powerful role, and

I

have no intention of revealing who it is.

G

ood luck to scum on making more use of that information dump than town can.

For reference. You taught me this method of crumbing, and then I implemented it.

[The Pied Piper]

I mean I guess when I say "nobody would've seen that crumb" what I meant was "I didn't see that crumb, and I tend to look for crumbs."

[podoboq]

Do you look at the capital letters in every single post in a 269 page game? Do you expect most people to do this?

I felt that I was drawing enough attention to myself with "Cakez isn't the vig, I know who it is, and I'm not going to say who" that it would have warranted scum to take a closer look at my next few posts. I also felt like the post where I crumbed it sounded stilted and weird, and warranted a closer look for that reason as well. I worried a bit that you would pick up on it, when I really just wanted scum to notice it, but I didn't think it was a likely possibility that it would go by completely unnoticed by everybody, and thought that at least if it does, it won't actually

damage

the game state.

I mean there are two possibilities here. A) I suck at crumbing apparently, or B) I'm scum/SK setting that up to prove that I'm vig later. So if I had the plan to claim vig later, why would I have played today the way I did, claiming VT (without much pressure), and pointing out that the vig claim might actually be an SK, so we need to be wary about letting the vig move forward too far, and then also pointing out the crumb that apparently nobody saw anyway and saying it was a gambit all along rather than just ignoring it? When scum crumb roles so they can claim them later, don't they usually ignore them if they choose not to claim it. So it's actually A) I'm not great at crumbing, or B) I created a very elaborate ruse and then collapsed it for absolutely no reason whatsoever rather than milking it and surviving another day.

I'm gonna go Occam's Razor on this one.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Occam's razor... I don't see how that applies here. I think we have to make fairly equal leaps for everyone here.

[dramonic]

...
That SvSvS exchange!
:p

If we're all three scum, just vote for the SK with me and take away their night kill.

You seem to have forgotten that the plan involves lynching Cakez

later

and you first.

vote: podo

[pistachi0n]

So, let's choose someone for Podo to kill tonight, and if they aren't NK'd we lynch Podo tomorrow?

[podoboq]

Occam's razor... I don't see how that applies here. I think we have to make fairly equal leaps for everyone here.

In layman's terms, given two options where only one can be true, the simpler one is usually true. Either I'm town who played a cute gambit that I also played in my newbie game or I'm scum playing this most convoluted and suicidal game of mafia ever conceived. Like, please review my plays from the perspective of scum, and ask yourself "Why in the world would he do any of that?" And I'm not even trying to divert my lynch at this point. I just want people to start looking at what I'm saying, and legit think about it. Cakez should be claiming and isn't.

He's probably SK, and probably going to kill Cerb tonight, then not have a way to confirm he's town and just give you a big darn it tomorrow.

If he's town, mafia kills Cerb anyway, then leaves you in the same position where he's unconfirmable.

[podoboq]

So, let's choose someone for Podo to kill tonight, and if they aren't NK'd we lynch Podo tomorrow?

What? I'm not the vig. I'm vanilla townie. I have literally no night action.

[podoboq]

...
That SvSvS exchange!
:p

If we're all three scum, just vote for the SK with me and take away their night kill.

You seem to have forgotten that the plan involves lynching Cakez

later

and you first.

vote: podo

L-1

Give me a second to make a final readslist, then feel free to hammer, whoever wants to.

[Cerberus v666]

85% you're all mislynching here.

[dramonic]

. . .
You know I keep making jokes about you not reading, but you're not helping.
@Pist

EDIT: 85% you're wrong here

[Cerberus v666]

Could be wrong though. :p

So final scum are tpp/podo dram?

[Cerberus v666]

And one of them is a sk?

[dramonic]

are you calling me scum with one of tpp or podo?
DAMMIT CERB YOU ARE THE WORST =_=

[podoboq]

Definitely town:

pistachi0n

- conftown. Too bad she's wrong about basically everything, but hey, what can you do?

Marquis

- basically conftown

Mala

- technically more conftown than Marquis. If Marquis is town, Mala must be town. If Marquis is scum, Mala can still be town. But there isn't a universe where Mala is scum and Marquis is town. I assume everyone understands that, but just in case.

Probably town:

shotty

- Town because of TO. I don't actually think their role is much worth testing.

itlepip

- Bodyguard claim seems solid. itlepip should eventually claim who their targets where, because those targets are statistically more likely to be scum.

Cerberus

- I've been back and forth on this slot, but if I had to pick I'd say more town. I don't like that there's a claim missing from him, but I expect it to come out tomorrow or for him to be killed tonight. If there's a vig, he's a fucking moron if he targets Cerb. If there's an SK, it's SC.

TPP

- This is the slot I'm most unsure of. Several fantastic moments in the game, including making a fabulous town case for me and killing dwlee. A few terrible moments, like scumreading me for no legitimate reason all of a sudden.

Lynch pool:

Flubbernugget

- Don't like the interactions from the slot, don't like tictac, but there's a claim there worth noting. If he doesn't use his tracker and provide all of his information tomorrow, just lynch him.

dramonic

- I feel like his form of play is anti-town, and I think his reads are mostly bad, but a good claim could move him into probably town. Without a real claim, just lynch him.

Mirhawk

- I think he's town, but there's no way to prove anything on him, and he's claimed VT which is functionally less helpful than stuff like an X-shot BP, so I'd risk a mislynch here before stuff like TPP, who I'm just a bit less confident in.

Probably scum/SK

(is SK technically scum? I still haven't figured that out):

SirCakez

- Please read my ISO for more explanation, but I'm pretty confident that Cakez is the SK if there is one. I thought he was vig, as did TPP, for the way he's responded to the vig's actions, and the way he's called vig shots, as well as just a few interactions here and there. However, his interactions are heavily scummy in my book. I think he's opportunistic, I think he throws shade where it doesn't belong, and I think he's stalling and intentionally refusing to make plays that are protown. I made points to him about claiming which he's ignored, namely that Cerb's death precludes our ability to supposedly confirm him. I think he's stalling until he has a nightphase in which he can kill Cerb. So I think the BG should protect Cerb, or the tracker should at least watch there, but hey, you do you.

[podoboq]

Good luck to town.
No hard feelings to any of you after the game, obviously. Have fun!