Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)

[Xiao Long]

I'd like to keep my own thoughts on frog private for the time being. I'm doing what I can to look at this from all angles, including your view of frog without my own thoughts influencing you.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 4.01

frog (1) - Mac
Mac (1) - frog

Not Voting (1) - Xiao Long

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

The deadline is Friday, May 17, 2013, at 3:00 PM EDT (UTC-4).[/area]

[frog]

With reference to Mac's 671:

Ask yourself, why keep the conftown alive? Unless he suspects the townie and not the scum? Obviously this is WIFOM and thus can't be trusted but Didi thought I was town and was possibly scummy himself: he is dead. Xiao thinks I'm scum and is conftown and you are still alive.

This is WIFOM, as you have admitted. The other side of the coin is that Mac left conftown alive in order to implicate me. WIFOM only benefits scum, so it is suspect that Mac is bringing this up. The fact that he says 'it can't be trusted' but is trying to pass it off as a legitimate point anyway should cause alarm bells to start ringing in your head.

So surely the point of yesterday, if me and Nic were scumbuddies, would be for me to get lynched and Nic to get superb towncred and win scum the game? Nope, no it wasn't, because I put up a fight and got him lynched. Why? Because I'm town.

I completely disagree. With both of you as scum, it wouldn't matter which one died as the other would seem like conftown. You did put up a fight, I agree, however with such a plan as this both sides

must

put up a good fight otherwise it looks a little suspect. If you'd have been lynched yesterday, Nic could say exactly the same thing today and try to use it to prove he's town. If anything, this strengthens the argument that you two were bussing each other so that one would get cleared for next day's LyLo.

There are two key points concerning your very self Xiao that the scum have done here:

1) Nic sheeped your vote onto me; scum trying to win the game.

I have no arguments with this. What Mac means is that Nic tried to quickhammer with his scumbuddy, but this statement fits my proposition that it was a convenient time to start the bussing strategy. The time was the best time to vote and cause chaos, and it did.

2) frog tried to wait for your vote to see if he could hammer me and win. he tried to cover this up with "waiting for your thoughts" but I've caught him out.

This is quite clearly a misrep. I said 'what we need to know is who you're going to vote for' which, frankly, is not logically equivalent to 'I'm waiting for your vote'. Asking for such knowledge is not scummy; Didi had done it on the previous page ('I want to know where Xiao and frog stand atm') and flipped town. In fact, asking people who they would vote for was fairly commonplace in D3 and is not in itself any indication of alignment.
Furthermore, the premise of his argument is flawed. If I were scum, it didn't matter whether I hammered or not as long as town was lynched. I could be first on the wagon, second on the wagon, third, it would make no difference. In fact, at the end of D3 there was no need for scum to ask who you were planning to vote for (note that Mac and Nic were the only two players who didn't ask for such information on D3. Coincidence? I think not). Mac presumes that it is necessary for scum to hammer to win, which it isn't. I don't see how his point is valid at all.

So the information Mac's putting forward is mostly WIFOM with bits of theory that don't quite match up with the situation (and some of it actually strengthens my side of the argument). Take this as you will, but Mac is clearly the scum in this scenario.

[Mac]

I'm going to adress the final part of that post right now, will get others later.

Didi did not ask for Xiao or your vote iirc, he asked "where you stand" as in your opinion. There's a massive difference between "where do you stand" and "where is your vote going." The thing here is you have been caught in a complete lie and are trying to say "other town did it" when in fact they did not.


It's not flawed at all. You were waiting for Xiao's vote before you left; why? Why not just place your vote on me?

I didn't need to ask for who was voting for who because it was irrelevant for me: I knew Nic was scum and all I had to do was convince the town that Nic was scum.

[frog]

If I vote to lynch Nic, who would follow my lead?

If I vote to lynch Mac, who would follow my lead?

I want to know where Xiao and frog stand atm

This looks like pretty much the same thing to me.

I'll say it again, I was not waiting for his vote, I was waiting for his thoughts on the matter. I did not at any point ask him to vote. My intention should be clear as it came after post 648 where I say 'Xiao, what are your thoughts now?'. As I've said, my statement and what you think my statement means are not logically equivalent, so it's hardly a lie.
Why not place it on you immediately? Because there was still (limited, granted) time for discussion, which is what I was asking for.

[Mac]

It's not the same thing. That looks like he's asking who people find to be more scummy out of the two of us; again he's asking people's opinions.

What we need to know is who you're going to vote for.

I can keep coming back to this again, and again and again. Because it's not waiting for his opinions, it's waiting for his vote. If you wanted his opinion, you'd say "we to know your thoughts" not his vote.

ACTUALLY. Looking back, it's even

worse

when you tie in Xiao's comment prior to it.

Going to class now, will comment my thoughts when I get there.

What we need to know is who you're going to vote for.

So you weren't waiting for his thoughts because he intended to post them; further proof you are lying and wanted to know if you could win yesterday by voting me.

[frog]

It's not the same thing. That looks like he's asking who people find to be more scummy out of the two of us; again he's asking people's opinions.

Right, except here the opinion he's asking for is 'who would follow me if I voted either of these players', i.e, if I voted Mac, who would follow me, if I voted Nic, who would follow me, which means, in essence, who are Xiao and Frog going to vote for? This is precisely what I was asking by my comment. I wanted to know his thoughts regarding who he would be voting, i.e, what I want to know is who you will vote for.

I don't know how I can make this any clearer. 'What we need to know is who you're going to vote for' is not the same as 'we need your vote'. One asks for an opinion, one asks for a vote.

As for how it is 'even worse', I don't understand your point.

So you weren't waiting for his thoughts because he intended to post them; further proof you are lying and wanted to know if you could win yesterday by voting me.

How does this prove I am lying? What part of him intending to post his thoughts means I couldn't have been waiting for them?

This poorly explained misrep has gone on long enough. I know what I meant by my comment, I have repeated it several times, and Mac has given no explanation for why the two statements are the same. If you read it that way, Mac, then that's fine, I can't control how you read things, but it should be clear by now that my intended meaning is not the same one that you've got out of it.

[Xiao Long]

I'd really prefer if you guys didn't spend this day on that one point. Mac, I'm still waiting on your frog ISO.

[Mac]

ISOing kingpin just now.

mutley makes a good point in 202 pointing out that kingpin, despite calling him detrimental to the town and implying he was scum yet wouldn't hammer, probably because he knew mutley was town. he's basically pushing a policy lynch of mutley without actually following through nor putting down a vote. he votes mp5 for going after yourself xiao, which is kinda a typical scum move to tie themselves with a townie in case of being lynched - people would look back at this associative tell and find a way to link you.

onto frog, nothing telling about his intro other than calling Nic null, whilst calling everyone else town/scum other than yourself, you were also null. still find it extremely strange about his "wait for Equinox to clear it up" shenanigans at the end of day one but it means nothing since Mutley and slimer were town. I still think me trying to link him and Mutley as scum shows I didn't know his alignment, at least I was right about him being scum though. 423 tries to paint you (xiao) as scummy and still softpush me as scummy. 496 calls nic null again but "scum by poe" which at lylo is pretty ridiculous, proof he isn't town. note the phrase "always been a null tell" in that post; fencesitting with regards to his scumbuddy. after nic's sheeping vote he starts to call nic scum, knowing that the game is possibly up if they can't get me lynched and so resorts to calling us both the scum team. calls the other two players (Didi, Xiao) town in his ISO reviews. Buddying.

then we get the ridiculous series of posts which I've brought up over and over, obviously pointing to frogscum. he clearly wants to see if he can get the win if xiao votes me. frog can sit here and say he was asking for your thoughts all he wants, but the fact is, xiao, you said you were going to post your thoughts and frog asked for who you were going to vote for. that is scum.

[frog]

Alright, time to look at the interactions between Mac and Nic.

Mac's intro post doesn't involve much, but Nic is absent from his initial list of reads. I find it odd that Mac is using my null tells on Nic as a scumtell considerung that we have post 426 where he says he's scum. And after that, there's nothing. Literally, there is no mention of Nic again until after your unvote. This is pretty odd given two entire days of interaction. Furthermore, Nic barely mentions Mac at all either; aside from asking one question (which he repeats) on D2, there's little to no interaction between them until after your unvote.
Now, if we assume that their plan was to bus each other D3 so one becomes conftown for D4 (giving them an easy LyLo win) then this low level of interaction makes sense. If their interactions managed to fall under the radar (as they have done) then it makes their bussing strategy incredibly easy to execute, since no one can go back and tie them in a knot with what they said on previous days (since they hadn't said anything). You can see this strategy starting in 481, where Nic starts to become suspicious of Mac for little reason. Mac only starts examining Nic after Nic's vote. There is a massive disparity of action between days 1 and 2 and day 3, which is at the very least suspicious and indicates that the two could easily be scumbuddies. I should add that this isn't limited to Mac and Nic. Xegarus had little contact with FSnake, and Spadille did not address Xegarus at all in his time here. Xegarus and FSnake's (limited) discussion was about such matters as RVS and how to pressure people. In other words, these were simple newbie tips he was giving; no analysis was exchanged between the two of them. The interactions between Mac and Nic and their predecessors points towards them as the scumteam.
I will only address Mac's post briefly as I imagine we'll just end up at loggerheads at usual. I'd like to say that Mac fails to explain his points (e.g, why is me saying you and Didi were town buddying? And how is saying someone is scum by poe ridiculous at LyLo when it is in fact the only time poe makes sense, and how does it prove I'm not town?) and naturally I dispute his last paragraph, but as you say discussion on that has gone on long enough. For all Mac criticising me for having a null read on NicCage and on 'fencesitting' but fails to reaiise he did the same until D3. He says that call Nic scum only after his sheep vote but does not admit that he's guilty for this as well. If you want me to reply to more of it, Xiao, I will, but we'll just end up in an 'I'm right' 'no I'm right' situation again.

Ask yourself, why did Mac and Nic not interact at all for two straight days only to begin bussing each other on the third? It all points towards them being scumbuddies. If they weren't, then there is no reason why they should ignore each other for such a long time. It was in preparation for a bussing plan at LyLo so one of the two would appear town enough to win on the following day.

[Mac]

Alright, time to look at the interactions between Mac and Nic.

Mac's intro post doesn't involve much, but Nic is absent from his initial list of reads.

hey good point, we are clearly scum... no wait, i also missed frog, Voodoo Lady & Didi as well as Nic. good effort to try and manipulate that to your advantage.

I find it odd that Mac is using my null tells on Nic as a scumtell considerung that we have post 426 where he says he's scum. And after that, there's nothing. Literally, there is no mention of Nic again until after your unvote.

what? #426 indicates I'm null on Nic and nothing he has said or is saying is sticking out to me.

This is pretty odd given two entire days of interaction. Furthermore, Nic barely mentions Mac at all either; aside from asking one question (which he repeats) on D2, there's little to no interaction between them until after your unvote.
Now, if we assume that their plan was to bus each other D3 so one becomes conftown for D4 (giving them an easy LyLo win) then this low level of interaction makes sense.

Behave. there's probably half the player list I hadn't interacted with unless they interacted with me. Such as MP5. are we scum? nope, he died. Also your plan has the flaw that I'm not stupid enough to believe that after my actions I would be "conftown" by bussing my buddy, but that's irrelevant because I'm not scum. Pretty sure your interactions with NicCage amount to little over nothing until his unvote, too, so don't try and twist this on me.

If their interactions managed to fall under the radar (as they have done) then it makes their bussing strategy incredibly easy to execute, since no one can go back and tie them in a knot with what they said on previous days (since they hadn't said anything). You can see this strategy starting in 481, where Nic starts to become suspicious of Mac for little reason. Mac only starts examining Nic after Nic's vote.

Like I've said, Nic wasn't very involved prior to sheeping Xiao and I had no reason to suspect him. are you suggesting that I should've ignored him when he so blatantly tried to steal the game from town like that by quicklynching me? Nic became suspicious of me for little reason because he's scum and I'm town, and needed a cheap reason to vote me so that entire final sentence is stupid.

There is a massive disparity of action between days 1 and 2 and day 3, which is at the very least suspicious and indicates that the two could easily be scumbuddies. I should add that this isn't limited to Mac and Nic. Xegarus had little contact with FSnake, and Spadille did not address Xegarus at all in his time here. Xegarus and FSnake's (limited) discussion was about such matters as RVS and how to pressure people. In other words, these were simple newbie tips he was giving; no analysis was exchanged between the two of them. The interactions between Mac and Nic and their predecessors points towards them as the scumteam.

yeah, spadille's 3 posts were a real insight into the game and how we were buddies. And wrt to FSnake,

Xegarus was an SE

which means his job was to be useful if required. another classic scumtell there by trying to twist the SE giving advice into scum-scum advice. Also, you might want to consider the fact that Spadille did not mention you at all and neither did FSnake before presenting them as your points against me. Hypocrite.

Ask yourself, why did Mac and Nic not interact at all for two straight days only to begin bussing each other on the third? It all points towards them being scumbuddies. If they weren't, then there is no reason why they should ignore each other for such a long time. It was in preparation for a bussing plan at LyLo so one of the two would appear town enough to win on the following day.

yeah, I've derped around this game and generally been a shit player, so it makes no sense whatsoever for me to bus my scumbuddy as opposed to my scumbuddy bussing me. but whatever. you've been twisting my words for long enough, I can only pray Xiao makes the right call and nails you.

[frog]

Responses are in order with regards to Mac's paragraphing.

It was just an incidental point, nothing more. I found it something worthy to note. The other players (me, Voodoo, and Didi) you form reads on either later in D1 or on D2. Comments on Nic don't come until much, much later.

Sorry, my comment on 426 should read 'null' not 'scum'. My point was that it was hypocritical of you to criticise me for having Nic as null when you had him as null as well.

You did interact with MP5, you had a very solid read on him from the beginning. I did interact with NicCage (and everyone else, in fact) well before he sheeped Xiao. Don't assume, please do your research.

Why did you ignore him the entire game up to that point? Whether you think the last sentence is stupid or not, it is actually a very valid possibility in this situation. He'd also need a cheap reason to bus you and for you to bus him. Your statement fits my hypothesis as well as it fits yours.

Yeah I had no problem with Xeg's advice, I'm just saying that their only interactions were standard SE tips, and aside from that, they did not talk much with each other. My point wasn't that Xeg was giving scum advice but that they had little game-centred interaction. Also I wasn't in the game when Fsnake and Spadille were, I think that might be a legitimate reason for them not mentioning me? And you say I'm twisting the situation. You've misrepped me again.

It didn't matter which one of you died since the other one would seem conftown regardless. It makes perfect sense for you to nail your scumbuddy.

Xiao, I hope you can see that my hypothesis is valid and backed up by large amounts of evidence throughout the game. It should be clear that the odd interactions between the pair shows that they are scumbuddies. His need to misrep me in order to refute my points shows he's running out of steam. Mac is clearly the scum here.

[Equinox]

Xiao Long has been prodded.

[Xiao Long]

I am here, I'm just waiting til the weekend so I can post decently.

[frog]

I wil be more active on the weekend also.

[Equinox]

Mac has been prodded.

Given the site downtime yesterday, I will add 24 hours to the deadline. The deadline is now Saturday, May 18, 2013, at 3:00 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[Xiao Long]

Just a heads up, finals are next week, so I'll probably be ending this game Monday. Tomorrow I will do my iso of frog and look into Mac again, in the mean time, if there's anything else you guys feel needs to be pointed out, please do so.

[Mac]

I've said all I have to say I think.

[frog]

There's nothing more I have to add. If you have any questions I would be happy to answer them.

[Mac]

This is dying on it's arse. It's not good for the town to keep quiet

[Xiao Long]

Yeah, sorry, I ended up getting sick and sleeping the weekend away. As a result, I'll do my iso of frog tomorrow and I'll hammer whoever by Wednesday.

[frog]

This is dying on it's arse. It's not good for the town to keep quiet

Finally you and I agree on something! Aside from us ramming our heads against each other I don't know what more there is to say.

[Xiao Long]

Frog ISO:

Starting with Kingpin:
Post 80 is a fairly town post. He votes MP5 after MP5 voted me for bogus reasons. Could be an attempt at buddying, though.
195 and 207 read to me as too scared to hammer, possibly because he knew Mutley was town (I mean, if I were in his shoes, I'd have hammered Mutley then and there.)

Frog:
Gets in and posts reads at 336 and 337.
His reads are:
Town:
Voodoo
MP5
Didi
Xeg/Mac

Scum:
Mutley
Slimer

Null:
Nic
Xiao

So, basically, his two scum reads were both confirmed town later on. I'm not saying this is obvious scum, I'm just acknowledging the possibility of it being scumfrog's attempt to weed off town.

The whole Mutley hammering Slimer ordeal takes place and both Frog and Mac seem to look pretty town and in a general "wtf" state of mind at him hammering Slimer. I still don't understand Frog's reluctance to no vote Mutley until he knew the Slimer vote had been solidified or not.
Regardless, both Mac and Frog read Mutley as confirmed scum on day three, so that's not much help.

420 (swag) is a pretty town post to me. He says he can't see Mac and Mutley being scum together, and he asks someone to remove their vote so that the day doesn't end too soon.
491 reads town to me as he wants everything to slow down even though he thinks Mac should be lynched. It's not a very scum thing to do since we were in Lylo, he could have just tried harder to push Mac if he were scum.

Everything after that is the whole "I think it's mac and nic" thing and there's not much there to point out that hasn't already been pointed out.





Here's the deal, I don't particularly care whether town wins this game or not. Mutley really fucked us by hammering himself. While it is admittedly fun trying to deduce who is and isn't scum in a 50/50 scenario, the alternative would have been much more preferable - a competent townie that would have contributed.

[Mac]

I think you should still care if town wins cos a win's a win isn't it. The game isn't a right off; you can still win it for us.

[frog]

You will get games on occasion where a player plays especially poorly. It happens, but you shouldn't just dismiss the game. We can still win this.