Newbie 1436 ~ Game Over

[notscience]

Yeah, no

I like GM

not TSO

:<

[Cabd]

So you done tunneling me oooor?

[fferyllt]

I don't want to vote TSO.

I got such a town sense when he was arguing with me. He wasn't trying to convince me I was wrong about him. He was trying to convince me I was wrong about my other reads.

I think he's town.

[notscience]

Meh.

I'm back and forth on you, and you saying "let ffery read me" then "I can manipulate ffery" gives me weird vibes

Ffery he didn't start being so bitter until it was POINTED OUT he wasn't being bitter

[Cabd]

I don't want to vote TSO.

I got such a town sense when he was arguing with me. He wasn't trying to convince me I was wrong about him. He was trying to convince me I was wrong about my other reads.

I think he's town.

I disagree somewhat but I can come up for air and go with you on this one. Let's say TSO is town. Does the chance of GM being scum fluxuate based upon TSO-town, or are the two reads independent?

[fferyllt]

bitter? What does that have to do with what I just posted?

[notscience]

It's my rebuttal thing to you're town-reasonings.

He just seems too appeasy and trying to assume power of wagons he didn't actually start.

The whole "SCUM TSO WOULDNT DO X" is bad too

[fferyllt]

I don't want to vote TSO.

I got such a town sense when he was arguing with me. He wasn't trying to convince me I was wrong about him. He was trying to convince me I was wrong about my other reads.

I think he's town.

I disagree somewhat but I can come up for air and go with you on this one. Let's say TSO is town. Does the chance of GM being scum fluxuate based upon TSO-town, or are the two reads independent?

Independent. Though I think when I had TSO in my scum pile I was still null on GM.

[fferyllt]

It's my rebuttal thing to you're town-reasonings.

He just seems too appeasy and trying to assume power of wagons he didn't actually start.

The whole "SCUM TSO WOULDNT DO X" is bad too

"SCUM TSO WOULDNT DO X" is a gross oversimplification. Scum do a lot of the same things town do by design, by accident and by necessity. How things are done is what usually reveals motivation.

[notscience]

I mean where he tried to self-meta.

[Sakura Hana]

Do you think self-meta is scum motivated?

[notscience]

Like that?

Yep.

[Kazekirimaru]

self-meta is generally bad. It's a step away from trust-tells usually.

lalalalala

I want TSO's blood on my dance floor.

[notscience]

It's one of those certain-time and place tells

[fferyllt]

I'll vote him later if it's that or nolynch.

And be pissed.

[Cabd]

I'll vote him later if it's that or nolynch.

And be pissed.

VOTE: GM

You have the floor, don't bother being pissed, just get your data.

[fferyllt]

Spoiler: my original case

There is some goodposting by GM during the first few pages. She took stances and laid down some reasoned reads.

notsci I'm thinking that Grav missing that joke is not a scumtell and that agi is actually leaning Town for me based on his line of questioning and the fact that we're having serious conversation early p2.

T S O looks a bit odd but quite frankly he looked like that the last time we played despite being confTown the entire time he inhabited the slot.

preliminary reads on 3 players there.

Ah, thanks for explaining the joke, GM.
I'm getting a few scummy vibes from agi, but not enough to make a conclusion. He keeps asking if there's a doctor, he might be attempting to figure out a night kill or something. He also claimed town, which isn't a good idea (though I think it was a joke).

This is a good post in a lot of ways. There's a lot of transparency of thought here which is very townish and there's definitely some protown motivation here.
I do disagree with some of the actual points though. There are reasons that newbtown would try to determine PRs just as much as newbscum would, and claiming town doesn't really mean anything imo.
At any rate this post has given me a nice strong townlean.

Another read with good basis.

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

I'm not 100% sure selfvoting counts as a gambit. Strictly speaking.

Even if you were being a complete idiot, you could really only be replaced if you were doing it on purpose.

Fair warning: many people frown on selfvotes, partly because they tend to be anti-Town and partly because they tend to be against one's wincon.

Vote: Sakura

This vote on the other hand is at the bottom of a midsized quotes wall and has no reasoning shown.

Then there are a bunch of posts including posts about Cabd and me joining the game with no mention at all of sakura. The first slight hint of reasoning is offered in 140:

@Grav: Who has provided more content thus far, Sakura or notsci?

Sakura was on v/la, but still making an appearance here and there.

In 157, another hint about her Sakura read - she reples "Really?" to grav's response to her that Sakura's provided more real content than notsci.

In 168 she votes T S O (another vote without reasoning). In her next post 186 she switches back to Sakura with no explanation.

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

^^ I remember thinking this one pinged when I first read it. "this is Town v Town" refers to the exchange between NotSci and Cabd. The pingy part though, comes next. She's doing pre-flip associations here. I need to go back and check a couple of games to be sure, but I am pretty sure GM has actively discouraged pre-flip/day 1 associative stuff in other games we've played.

Despite that tho, I haven't seen GM do much of anything and just tries to get me dead just like in monks and masons

Pot, meet kettle.

V/LA til Monday.

^ a no u.

I think I need to reread this, but I doubt my opinions will change much.

Given her posts/vote today this one in particular is ironic. She doubts her opinion will change but apparently she doesn't remember where her vote was. And the reread didn't refresh her memory.

Yes it is done, and still T S O and Sakura with low-and-unlikely chance of Cabd.

Consistency in the above though.

As far as posts of interest that brings me up to today. Kaze's point that the sloppiness/forgetfulness is more likely to come from town than scum resonates. I know that's the case for me. I'm meticulously careful about my stances and where my vote is as scum.

Her ISO shows a vague but discernable trajectory on sakura. Her initial vote on T S O was unexplained, and there's nothing in her later posts that sheds light on why he's in her scumpile, much less why she thinks she has her vote on him.

Bringing this forward. More in a bit.

[Cabd]

I'll vote him later if it's that or nolynch.

And be pissed

.

VOTE: GM

You have the floor, don't bother being pissed, just get your data.

In case anyone cares/wonders, this is where my leaning town on ffery being solidified came from.

[fferyllt]

Have I not been showing development in my Sakura read?

TSO is probably trying to hardbus his scumbuddy, thus why he's so insistent on him being the shepherd to the flock.

OK, so you think it's TSO-Cabd or TSO-Sakura.

And you're voting Cabd. I see. Hmm....

BTW Cabd I thought you misread this last night but wanted to leave it for Bert to sort because screwing up lines of questioning and all that.

He was calling notsci on the you-vote when notsci had TSO as the common denominator in his scum team hypotheticals.

I couldn't figure out why that post drew your vote.

[fferyllt]

For now, I notice I haven't posted a real readslist.

Very Town: notsci, Bert, agi, Kaze

Less Town: ffery

Still pretty null though slightly townleaning: Cabd

Scum: Sakura

Very Scum: T S O

EDIT: As per your 508, will elaborate later. It takes time when there are suddenly four more pages.

Partial quote of a GM post. This points away from T S O being a partner if she's scum. In the two games where I played with scum-GM she did not mega-scumread her partner.

[fferyllt]

This is her response to my quotestripe case.

Spoiler: fferyllt's 442

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

I'm not 100% sure selfvoting counts as a gambit. Strictly speaking.

Even if you were being a complete idiot, you could really only be replaced if you were doing it on purpose.

Fair warning: many people frown on selfvotes, partly because they tend to be anti-Town and partly because they tend to be against one's wincon.

Vote: Sakura

This vote on the other hand is at the bottom of a midsized quotes wall and has no reasoning shown.

I kinda figured my "really?" ing of her would speak for itself.

But, that was it as far as trajectory on the vote until much later. The only thing about this that really suggests town, and it's GM's scummy as hell looking town at that, is that she didn't do much work to push Sakura's lynch harder. I'm pretty sure she didn't respond to Cabd's request for a Sakura case. If I'm wrong, I'll find it as I work forward from here.

Then there are a bunch of posts including posts about Cabd and me joining the game with no mention at all of sakura.

She wasn't posting frequently, or much content. Not much to say except whinge about her V/LA, and that's not alignment-indicative.

This is basically an admission that her case is shit on Sakura, I think

In 168 she votes T S O (another vote without reasoning). In her next post 186 she switches back to Sakura with no explanation.

That's to do with the fluctuation of the wagons, I believe.

I still don't get this. Maybe someone can explain it to me.

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

^^ I remember thinking this one pinged when I first read it. "this is Town v Town" refers to the exchange between NotSci and Cabd. The pingy part though, comes next. She's doing pre-flip associations here. I need to go back and check a couple of games to be sure, but I am pretty sure GM has actively discouraged pre-flip/day 1 associative stuff in other games we've played.

I do discourage pre-flip/D1 associative stuff. None of my tells on them are associative. They are just 2 strong scumreads in a game where I have quite a few strong townreads.

I can accept this. But, I think there is something to the lining up lynches argument because she's pre-positioning on the new second scum read in the event the first flips town.

I think I need to reread this, but I doubt my opinions will change much.

Given her posts/vote today this one in particular is ironic. She doubts her opinion will change but apparently she doesn't remember where her vote was. And the reread didn't refresh her memory.

I addressed this in a post to I think Kaze.
I don't tend to worry about reading myself too carefully on reread, as I like to be able to form opinions somewhat fresh.

This actually is maybe a town point, to be unconcerned about the appearance of not paying much attention.

[fferyllt]

Not terribly impressed.

The part about fluctuating wagons, I'm not sure what she means or why that would make her want to move her vote.

As I said:

186 - Why, though?

Because.
I am thoroughly satisfied with a lynch on either one (the other is T S O, obvs) at this point and so will continue to sway between them until it becomes clear which one is today's lynch (probably T S O, probably the better option).

Ok, so this is where she explains about fluctuating wagons. She has Sakura as scum and T S O as very scum. And it feels like she's checked out from being active in figuring things out. She has her two scum reads from a few days earlier and is passive as far as scumhunting goes at this point, not refining reads.

[fferyllt]

Is Cabd bitterly sarcastic and slightly pompous regardless of alignment? Confirm/deny please.

It's my only fun tool in opens and semiopens, since I can't gambit the fuck out of things like I prefer to do.

Do reaction tests qualify as gambits? If so, I think you have another fun tool.

[Sakura Hana]

I've seen quite some gambits in newbies like a cop fake claiming 1 shot bp.

I'm still gonna be around for at least 8 more hours so yeah im p.much gonna be here the rest of the deadline.

@ns: you should hammer GM.

[Cabd]

Do reaction tests qualify as gambits?

Not in my mind, they're on a more mortal plane.