Mafiascum.net

In post 588, Uncrowned wrote:Hoopla

Why is JV not in your readings?

I also don't really like your read on me. My activity isn't what should make me town here. This read feels very low effort.

In post 590, JacksonVirgo wrote:I don't like the fact they refuse to read in the 4s or whatnot, I feel that's just stupid for town to do.

do you ever have those days where you make a to-do list of 10 different things you need to get done, get so overwhelmed by the prospect, that you procrastinate with TV or some other escape, then end up doing nothing on the list? when if you put your mind to it, you could have easily done 6 or 7 things, accepted that level of output and been satisfied with yourself, rather than doing nothing.

day 1's in games this size are often like this for me.

i don't have the stamina these days to analyse an entire playerlist on D1 (especially in 7 day deadlines), so some kind of filtering is necessary for me in order for me to stay focused.

my preferred modus operandi is to sort through who i'm not willing to execute. this includes: obv-town, strong players who'll likely get NK'ed if they're town (so i don't need to bother sorting them), active/transparent posters (who seem like they'll be easy to read later), + other miscellaneous town influences.

this in turn creates a de facto execution pool that is small enough that i can focus on until we get some real information in the game (big wagons, claims, flips etc).

this game is unique in that it has other mechanical considerations to help the filtering process: the 4's.

In post 592, JacksonVirgo wrote:@Hoopla, I recall you saying there's likely one scum in the 4s. If so that's a 33% shot if you read in there yet you're choosing not to?

i'm saying there's max one scum in the 4's which means either 1 or 0. if it's 1, it's 33% from my perspective (25% from a town player's perspective outside that bracket), but you're also forgetting about another subsection of games where its 0. of groupings of 4+, it's been observed to have been an all town group 50% of the time:



i'm well aware i'd make this appeal to data if by chance i was scum and ended up in a likely-town draft position, but i'll save you all the time and tell you now it isn't alignment indicative. i'd make this exact same argument as town, and am doing so now.

In post 583, skitter30 wrote:Except town!her usually brings a lot more content, is more focused, doesn't ask inane questions which basically dont go anywhere (but this is something she does as scum!), and is capable of quickly becoming an obvtown force to be reckoned with

In post 584, skitter30 wrote:He has towngames like the one you describe, but he also has towngames where he's more underwhelming and absent

I approve of your assessment of me : thumbsup:

thanks for the intel. i'll be taking that into consideration.

you seem to know lilith well. so, on her specifically, have you had a history of catching her as scum? any recommended scumgames of hers that you can link to that would typify her scumgame? maybe a couple as town that showcase her obvtown'ing it up?

Cool. What did I miss?

In post 678, Pine wrote:Cool. What did I miss?

you're confirmed scum and we're hunting your partners

In post 669, PenguinPower wrote:yes - mostly her posting on ss and skitter

In post 670, petapan wrote:482 felt like fake paranoia

Thanks -- yeah I see those and have somewhat mixed feelings on it. It seems rather far fetched as a theory, but I'm not sure it's AI to be concerned about a possible hack job. In particular what motivation would scum have to bring up that type of concern early on vs. trying to ride it out? On the other hand there are some people who try to play the martyr as scum in that situation. Town in the #1 position have to be constantly on the lookout for scum trying a cheap miselim. I don't know lilith well enough to use meta. So yeah, big ball of undecided here.

In post 637, TheGoldenParadox wrote:sure, there might be 0 scum, but the especially problematic part is that she COMPLETELY ignores the 4s for reads purposes. thus, i think the scumteam including penguin and hoopla is extremely likely, and I also think that that third member of the scumteam ISN'T a 4 (because having 2 members as 4s and 1 member outside that group seems most reasonable from a scum!hoopla perspective). i would wager that this is a scum gambit that backfired because both me and JV also chose 4, therefore catapulting the two to the bottom of the draft pick instead of somewhere around the middle where they otherwise would be.

i'm ignoring them . as the game progresses (and i have a better handle on the part of the game i'm focusing on), i'll start considering them more.

i mean, on day 1, we all ignore chunks of the playerlist. it isn't realistic to give meaningful analysis on every player. for example, you've completely ignored the following players:



i'm ignoring low% slots until later because of data. what's your excuse for ignoring those slots?

the reality is we're all in the same boat here; we all pick and choose what we want to focus on for D1. it's hypocritical to criticise me for ignoring slots when you've done so yourself, albeit in a more indirect way.

In post 679, petapan wrote:

In post 678, Pine wrote:Cool. What did I miss?

you're confirmed scum and we're hunting your partners

Oh snap.

The usual, then. Time to win as an openwolf.

Again.

In post 330, Dunnstral wrote:Also voting out Lilith who is top of the draft is not a good move, why are people starting there?

VOTE: skitter30

Because I don't like her vote and she can play like this as scum

is there a functional difference between voting out top of the draft vs. third? third is highly likely to be a PR too.

what don't you like about her vote, as opposed to every other lilith voter?

In post 680, davesaz wrote:

In post 669, PenguinPower wrote:yes - mostly her posting on ss and skitter

In post 670, petapan wrote:482 felt like fake paranoia

Thanks -- yeah I see those and have somewhat mixed feelings on it. It seems rather far fetched as a theory, but I'm not sure it's AI to be concerned about a possible hack job. In particular what motivation would scum have to bring up that type of concern early on vs. trying to ride it out? On the other hand there are some people who try to play the martyr as scum in that situation. Town in the #1 position have to be constantly on the lookout for scum trying a cheap miselim. I don't know lilith well enough to use meta. So yeah, big ball of undecided here.

i don't have a frame of reference there but it felt like an inauthentic thought process to assume someone pressure voting you early day 1 is mafia who is protecting their partner, because when does that happen, really? The much more obvious strategy is staying out of someone's way and then NKing them. so in that sense it feels contrived, like it's attempting to emulate a town mindset in response to pressure but gets it wrong

In post 600, Uncrowned wrote:Skitter and JV have also been relatively high posters but don't get mentioned at all in this regard.

This feels like scum lowkey discrediting me by boiling my ISO down to "active posting", not taking a hard stance on me but leaving the door open to putting suspicion on me later down the line.

@Hoopla

You didn't really answer this.

Do you think this is an unfair criticism of your read on me, or do you see where I'm coming from?

In post 631, davesaz wrote:

In post 552, Uncrowned wrote:Is there a reason you've singled out TGP here while ignoring most of the others slots in the game?

I don't normally comment on stuff I agree with or butt into other people's conversations.

But here's the thing: You haven't really commented on a lot of these interactions either. It's not that you're not getting involved in them, it's that you're taking few stances on them.

In post 634, davesaz wrote:

In post 561, Uncrowned wrote:Hoopla's joining of your wagon though makes me believe that if one of you is scum, the other will not be.

Nah, never underestimate the power of an early bus. It's basically without risk and can establish anti-associatives if too many people think this way.

This is true.

In post 599, petapan wrote:

In post 576, Hoopla wrote:davesaz - under-the-radar somewhat. not a crime per se in a game this fast, but given it's (theoretically) easier to stream-of-conscious spam through the pages as town, under-the-radar seems a viable factor to consider in a D1 execution. hasn't done anything outright scummy, but from a POE perspective he is suss given

i have mostly town-leanings.

this doesn't seem to really line up with what you've said about people?

In post 677, Hoopla wrote:you seem to know lilith well. so, on her specifically, have you had a history of catching her as scum? any recommended scumgames of hers that you can link to that would typify her scumgame? maybe a couple as town that showcase her obvtown'ing it up?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=82824 - me and a hydra of lilith/ss formed the scumteam. first game with her, i got somewhat acquainted with her

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=83235 - shortly thereafter we played in this game, where i was town ... and ss and lilith were both scum. caught ss. lilith i tought was sufficient different from the prior game that i was defending her for a while, but i eventually realized the error of my ways, and we voted out the slot. there was some sort of mutual townreading thinig going on between lilith and ss here. i think that game looks quite a lot like this one

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=83501 - funky theme game. won't get into all the specifics but tldr both of us thought we were multiball scum day1. so i was reading her (me thinking i was multiball scum) as if she was town, and basically came to a very very very erarly and hard townread on her, that she verified. and she played in a way strongly associated with her towngame because she also thought she was multiball scum so she could scumhunt. i didn't explain that really well but basically i thought she was town, and she was behaving in a way similar to how town!her would behave, and quickly identified it

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=83833 - most recently this one. was a cluster of a game but me/lilith/ss were all town. the latter two repped in and i formed p strong townread on lilith fairly quickly.

notable quotes from the last game in the above context:

Subject: Micro 960: A Year of Miccros II - Game Over

skitter30 wrote:

In post 1856, Alduskkel wrote:what about her play this game is out of her scumrange?

she's being assertive with her reads, and there's an underlying pov that's driving most of her posts in this game

like i can actually follow how she's thinking about the game, what's forming her opinions, and why

lacking from this game, but is indicative of the third and fourth games on the list, while lacking in the second one too
incidentally she was scum in the second one, and was town (or thought she was multiball scum, whatever, in this case it boils down to the same thing) in the third and fourth

In post 685, Uncrowned wrote:

In post 600, Uncrowned wrote:Skitter and JV have also been relatively high posters but don't get mentioned at all in this regard.

This feels like scum lowkey discrediting me by boiling my ISO down to "active posting", not taking a hard stance on me but leaving the door open to putting suspicion on me later down the line.

@Hoopla

You didn't really answer this.

Do you think this is an unfair criticism of your read on me, or do you see where I'm coming from?

i see where you're coming from, but you're overthinking it.

i didn't take a hard stance on you because i don't have much of an opinion of you. it usually takes me a while to read low signal:noise players.

over-posting tends to be a town trait though, so i'm not so concerned about you yet.

In post 690, Hoopla wrote:it usually takes me a while to read low signal:noise players.

If you're going to call Uncrowned a low signal:noise, I'm going to question whether you're actually reading or if you're merely looking at post count.
I did a quick skim and I don't see any fluff at all in that ISO. It's all game related commentary and pretty much spot on in terms of relevance.

In post 687, petapan wrote:

@Hoopla:

In post 599, petapan wrote:

In post 576, Hoopla wrote:davesaz - under-the-radar somewhat. not a crime per se in a game this fast, but given it's (theoretically) easier to stream-of-conscious spam through the pages as town, under-the-radar seems a viable factor to consider in a D1 execution. hasn't done anything outright scummy, but from a POE perspective he is suss given

i have mostly town-leanings.

this doesn't seem to really line up with what you've said about people?

you and to a lesser extent dunnstral were my only scum leanings in that post?

FYI I am here reading the game, am on page 18.

In post 691, davesaz wrote:If you're going to call Uncrowned a low signal:noise, I'm going to question whether you're actually reading or if you're merely looking at post count.
I did a quick skim and I don't see any fluff at all in that ISO. It's all game related commentary and pretty much spot on in terms of relevance.

i know there's relevant stuff in there. my eyes just tend to glaze over when players comment on everything, though. when everything is worth commenting on, it's hard to know what he actually cares about.

@skitter

thanks for links. i'm give them a skim when i have some downtime.

hoopla, what are your reads on me, pp, and JV?

What do you mean by low signal?

680 feels manufactured and 691 feels like buddying.