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Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:38 am
by Akarin
In post 673, DoubtingThomas wrote:killing dunn is probably a necessity at this point regardless of his alignment. we need information there. him or niccage.
Why do you think those 2 give significantly more information than other eliminations? If Dunn flips town, what does it tell you?
Also, I really don't think a neighborhood is unlikely in a 9p game. Anyone else want to back me up on this.
And while I'm at it, I'll answer my earlier question, I really don't think a wagon getting pretty close to the Dastardly Deed is that rare on page 3 on this site.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:39 am
by MathBlade
In post 672, DoubtingThomas wrote: In post 668, MathBlade wrote: In post 667, Akarin wrote: In post 660, MathBlade wrote: In post 214, Akarin wrote:Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.
Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?
Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?
Yes. 5 3P is valid they could all be scum.
certainly posts like this wehre I think 3p's are just trying super hard to hide the fact that they are 3p. Some others who seem to be responsible for this fallacy (e.g. dunnstral and nic) If I were a town, and if I am in a neighborhood with someone else who is saying stuff like "I have info that you are 10% chance of being scum! and especially now that nic pointed out there's a chance that the game is not 2 scum/7 town, my first guess is to be very very extra wary of the other person in my neighborhood. neighborhood just doesn't seem that plausible in a 9 player game with 2 scums.
or maybe dunn might be the actual scum in 2s/7t game so he's confbiasing himself? idk
I don’t know either. And with Dunn’s lack of effort he is a safe elimination, but I think Nic or A are the better plays. If Dunn flips 3P we do indeed have a conf scum in Nic but I don’t know if I am comfortable eliminating a probable inno.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:39 am
by MathBlade
In post 673, DoubtingThomas wrote:killing dunn is probably a necessity at this point regardless of his alignment. we need information there. him or niccage.
In that I agree.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:41 am
by MathBlade
In post 674, Akarin wrote: In post 668, MathBlade wrote: In post 667, Akarin wrote: In post 660, MathBlade wrote: In post 214, Akarin wrote:Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.
Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?
Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?
Yes. 5 3P is valid they could all be scum.
Because if they all have different wincons they aren't a team.
How does that give Gypyx a scum (or scummy 3P) motive for the push I was talking about?
This is correct, but if I am right there are 5 3P. Eliminating all the 3P means we win no matter what. It’s up to the 3Ps to townside if they aren’t a threat to us. Otherwise getting rid of them all works for me.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:41 am
by Akarin
@Math: So do you think Gypyx is more towny from the section of game I was pointing at?
If not, why do you think he plays that way as 3P or scum, what's the agenda?
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:42 am
by Akarin
In post 1, schadd_ wrote:there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:44 am
by MathBlade
In post 679, Akarin wrote:@Math: So do you think Gypyx is more towny from the section of game I was pointing at?
If not, why do you think he plays that way as 3P or scum, what's the agenda?
I do.
I think that some of his posts are TWTBAW and if G is scum they make more sense as a 3P not a scum scum.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:46 am
by MathBlade
you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
^^ From the OP best you’ll get on mobile.
If all the 3Ps are dead if it is a 3P game we win by default.
If it’s a scum game when all the scum are dead.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:47 am
by MathBlade
Instead of telling us who you won’t eliminate A, tell us who you will eliminate?
I do agree with G consolidation needs to happen.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:49 am
by Akarin
VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:50 am
by MathBlade
Okay why? If Mastina is town, I’d agree with her TGP read.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:51 am
by Gypyx
Could anyone summarize me the case on nic?
What does TWTBAW mean?
Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:51 am
by Akarin
If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."
I don't think anyone is arguing we shouldn't eliminate 3rd parties.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:53 am
by Akarin
Because if I were a 2-shot dayvig, Mastina and TGP would be my hero shot right now.
And because Mastina hasn't given much reasoning on TGP and I trust that read less than I trust her read on you, because in your case I'm just asking if you'd respond that way because of your personality, rather than asking for vague town vibes.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:54 am
by Akarin
I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:56 am
by MathBlade
In post 686, Gypyx wrote:Could anyone summarize me the case on nic?
What does TWTBAW mean?
Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin
Too wolfie to be a wolf.
The case on Nic from my POV is
1) He didn’t take into account 3P when examining his informed claim.
2) His informed claim with a percent, is very out of character for MS. I’ve been here a loooong time and never seen it.
3) He considered Dunn to be a possible 3P despite his claim being confirmed as not being possible
4) He didn’t revise or unvote or hunt anywhere else.
^^ those are my main points.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:58 am
by MathBlade
In post 687, Akarin wrote:If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."
I don't think anyone is arguing we shouldn't eliminate 3rd parties.
Except you’re betraying your own argument with Gypsy when you say that.
You said earlier that there were scum if it’s a 3P game, specifically the two in the hood.
Do I have to go back and quote you?
Oh and hero Vig to me is you and Nic no questions asked.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:00 am
by Gypyx
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:04 am
by MathBlade
In post 210, Akarin wrote: In post 209, Gypyx wrote:Akarin / nic might be the team
Akarin, while you're here, why did you assume 2 scum vs 7 town?
Because it literally says that in the setup.
5 3rd parties of which 2 of them share a wincon and a PT is a 2-player scumteam. But we know which it is as soon as we get a non-town flip.
This here. Just in case you forgot.
It’s literally in the part you asked me to read.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:05 am
by Akarin
To see what happens, and because it was the way of answering Math's question that most amused me.
I'll be around to move it elsewhere.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:06 am
by MathBlade
In post 694, Akarin wrote:
To see what happens, and because it was the way of answering Math's question that most amused me.
I'll be around to move it elsewhere.
So it’s a non answer answer and you’re hoping not to solve the Dunn/Nic issue.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:07 am
by Akarin
Math, yes and they'd be 3rd Parties rather than actual Mafia, you'd just be able to hunt for them via associations like you hunt for Mafia (and I would assume they'd be likely to be the players with the most anti-town wincon due to preserving the game actually being a game of "mafia."
Mastina made the same point.
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:07 am
by Akarin
If by "hoping not to solve" you mean I think they're TvT as I've said multiple times?
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:16 am
by Gypyx
Also btw, i see it's been brought up, so my role pm has terms leaving 3p possible in it, therefore it's kinda weird for nic to have "town" and "mafia"
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:25 am
by MathBlade
In post 697, Akarin wrote:If by "hoping not to solve" you mean I think they're TvT as I've said multiple times?
Explain it like I am 5.