3d20 – The Great Board Game War [GAME OVER]

[Thor Ragnarok]

I'm still working for the town while I'm town, I know I can only win with the town so I'll be voting for who I think is scum? It only changes if someone recruits me

[Nero Cain]

Who do u think is scum?

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Nero
We do a little pressuring

[Thor Ragnarok]

Who do u think is scum?

I have a read but I'm gonna reveal it when they're here

[JamesTheNames]

UNVOTE:
I'm not sure how likely this is, but I think it's POSSIBLE that Robert did get confused mid-game. So I'm taking a chance here that the blatant AtE isn't scum-motivated.

James, who do you think is likely cult?

Dwlee99.

[Nero Cain]

Any specific reason?

[JamesTheNames]

14, 159, 199, 371 with 551, and finally 590.

[Dwlee99]

All of those are NAI except maybe that my role isn't on the list...

[Dwlee99]

14 is a joke I have with Kyo. 159 is just referencing a game I played with Cyrus where he was softing he would investigate my mafia partner so we might killed him. I always say 199. And then just that my role isn't there

[Dwlee99]

James actually has done nothing but blow hot air about NAI things being AI even after it's explained (Cyrus being Cyrus, my mason joke)

[Dwlee99]

^
VOTE: James

[JamesTheNames]

Well that is a vote which carries no weight.
I'll get to explaining just for you how you're wrong.

[Dwlee99]

Do I need to go and quote what I'm talking about?

[Dwlee99]

Subject: Mini Theme 2222: Open Draft Mafia Mafia Thread

I think we should heavily consider killing Cyrus for his investigation claim.

[Dwlee99]

I'm mason
VOTE: SSBM_KYOUKO

I'm mason
VOTE: SSBM_KYOUKO

and your partner is?

Saudade

[JamesTheNames]

Self-meta is AI it means you don't have town content, just clarifying that now.
14 and 159 have no guarantee to be a joke, 14 you could have easily intended to be a crumb or a fake crumb. We have no way of knowing until an investigative role investigates you or you're hammered/night killed. The same applies got 159 but not as strongly. 199 adheres to the self-meta issue, and its Lamist. If you were actually town, 371 and 551 would narrow your role for scum, why would town do this? They wouldn't. 590 seems like a poor excuse for this.

I'll go into additionally why I think you'd be cult and not scum, 258 and 261 are both suspicious. I'd peg you for scum normally but I got asked who I think most likely is cult. You aren't the scummiest, but you are the most cult like out of my scum reads.

I'll just do a little summary of your posts also:
You've voted a person for using mechanics. For pressure by saying you're voting for pressure hence applying 0 pressure, and me for "doing nothing". You've made 0 attempt at scum hunting or cult hunting. The only things you've really done are telling me not to waste time on cyrus, and 'joking around'.

[Dwlee99]

But I also caught you so that counts for something I'd think

[Dwlee99]

Your entire thing about "oh there's no guarantee it's a joke" is just bad

[Dwlee99]

If you were actually town, 371 and 551 would narrow your role for scum, why would town do this? They wouldn't. 590 seems like a poor excuse for this.

I wanted people to know the list had lies and I'm like 99% sure if I claimed during mass claim instead of right then I'd be killed for not being on the list. I didn't really think about scum knowing what they lied about but they also don't know if part of it was rerolled or not

[Dragon of the West]

If you were actually town, 371 and 551 would narrow your role for scum, why would town do this? They wouldn't. 590 seems like a poor excuse for this.

Trying to flesh out this thought, why would scum do 371 and 551?

[Dragon of the West]

It seemed like to me he's just saying that he has a role that someone rolled

I'm saying my role isn't what that someone claimed and if my modifier also doesn't match up to a claim then we know someone lied because only one dice can be changed by mod in someone's role.

No this is why people weren't supposed to claim if something matches exactly - if scum rolled your role and lied about it they now know what you have

How would they narrow anything down though? If you were in a normal newbie game and said "I'm one of the 9 roles" it doesn't reveal what you actually are. The same applies here does it not?

No, I'll explain with a hypothetical. Let's say I was given a scum role, but I rolled town rampaging doctor. If I'm scum, I could lie about what I rolled. Then, if someone says "my role isn't on the list", I know that person is way more likely to be the rampaging doctor I rolled. If we claim "on the list" or "not on the list", it gives info to scum without giving anything equivalent back to town.

Also, I didn't understand how claiming it was not on the list would benefit scum until this Kyo post...and it seems you didn't fully grasp it either. So saying someone else is scum, especially for what wasn't clear or discussed until AFTER their posts you're saying are scummy, seems really hypocritical

[cyrus62]

@dw where are your thoughts this game should we be aiming for scum 1st or cult leader 1st ? for me i think cult leader then scum but i anit sure cult gets a kill .

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The results are in folks

out of 1,000,000 simulated sets of 13 rolls, a TOWN role was only duplicated at least once within a set of 13 rolls 87,162 times, or 8.7% of the time. So James maybe you had the formula right but missed a zero somewhere if you did the math by hand. When at least one role was duplicated, at least one of the duplicated roles was a Normal-modifier (1-3 on the third die) role 30,607 times, which is 35.1% of the duplicated town roles, or 3.1% of all of the sets of 13 rolls.

My script treats 1-12 on the first die as the same by mapping those rolls to the string "Town", and treats 1-3 on the third die as the same by mapping it to the word "Normal". If it rolls over 13, it doesnt roll the remaining 2 die as I didn't care about matching results that were not town. It only rolls the first die 13 times = it does not continue to roll until 13 town rolls, it just rolls 13 times and only keeps track of the Town roles in an array to compare to each other later after all 13 rolls are made.

I can post the script (I think) without it proving randomness as long as I don't post the output, for anyone who wants to check my work that knows javascript.

[Marashu]

I know javascript and could double-check the work if it's allowed by the rules, but not before this evening.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mistakenly pegged Dwlee as a Mason like 3 games in a row by misinterpreting posts as softs so I started to joke about it in RVS

One time he opened a game posting

Tic
Tac
Toe

And I thought it was a crumb he was masons with T3, but it was a reference to a recently completed game "Tic Tac Toe mafia". Another time he said a few things in a series of posts with Shrek and I thought when Dwlee said "why me = fry me" and Shrek said "I leave all my possessions to greg the egg" that Dwlee was literally crumbing "fry

me

", like you would fry an egg, and that "greg the egg" was Dwle

e99

where the 9's were g's, as in egg. In that game, I was mafia and had a Traffic Analyst on my team who even confirmed Dwlee had access to a PT, but it turned out he had been neighborized by the Traitor. Huge fiasco for the scumteam, funny game to read, Mini Normal "FIA WRC" modded by Osuka.

I think there was a third time at some point, maybe it was just those 2