Thor thats a scumy af take and fuckin hilarious attempt at lookin busy
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:04 am
by Thor Ragnarok
Is there a reason you're so quick to discredit the stats?
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:09 am
by Flea The Magician
Because setups are randomised, and beyond mod control.
You're literally trying to make sense of random data. Last I knew, none of these have been bastard with the mod assigning roles.
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:10 am
by Thor Ragnarok
Can you give proof of that?
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:10 am
by Flea The Magician
setup assignments are completely random.
I've had many test setups space the scum out and quite a few group them together.
I can modify my setup tester for you if you want to show it. It'll generate 1000 games worth of stats for you. (I use it to ensure even distribution is met)
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:10 am
by Flea The Magician
... you genuinely want me to prove the game generation is random and not mod assigned?
Dude... you're higher than me o.o
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:13 am
by Thor Ragnarok
Well I always figured the mods picked scum arbitrarily from the playerlist but had to avoid using bias to make it fair, but there's still ways to detect subconscious bias which is what I might have seen in Datisi - he spreads his picks out so #2 is due for scum, and scum aren't next to each other very often.
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:16 am
by Flea The Magician
It is literally random.
It is a requirement when the game is queued that if mod bias affects alignments, it's declared.
There can be no bias when it is a randomly generated setup.
Players drawn and assigned in this order:
>>> mastina > Child of Fairies > Robert M Hunter > Gamma Emerald > Marashu > Roden > Titus > House > Lukewarm > Guillotina > ssbm_Kyouko > T3 > Angel Warriors
╔════════════════╡Assigned roles╞═══════════════╗
╟──Scum─────────────────────────────────────────╢
║ mastina Mystic Goon ║
║ Robert M Hunter Yakra ║
║ Guillotina Mystic Goon ║
║ ║
╟──Town─────────────────────────────────────────╢
║ Child of Fairies Frog ║
║ Gamma Emerald Lucca ║
║ Marashu Knight of Guardia ║
║ Roden Knight of Guardia ║
║ Titus Knight of Guardia ║
║ House Knight of Guardia ║
║ Lukewarm Knight of Guardia ║
║ ssbm_Kyouko Knight of Guardia ║
║ T3 Crono ║
║ Angel Warriors Knight of Guardia ║
║ ║
╟──Third Party──────────────────────────────────╢
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
I don't think any mod goes as far as I do as to randomise the role assignment list and the player list before picking players and roles at random until both pools are expired, but still. It has to be random.
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:20 am
by Harvey and Haley
Recent events have raised my interest in alt-hunting Thor.
-Harvey
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:21 am
by Thor Ragnarok
Well, that sucks
Well it makes sense why but less for me to go off of, thanks for letting me know
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:34 am
by Datisi
this will be a vote count when i manage to drag myself out of bed and get a coffee
It looks like Datisi likes to spread out scum in the playerlist between games, making all positions covered.
However, position 2 has NEVER rolled scum. This makes it due to be rolled scum, and makes Something_Smart more likely to be scum.
Datisi also doesn't like putting scum next to each other on the playerlist, other than 1 case 6 games ago. This makes it unlikely that scum are next to each other. So if Something_Smart is scum, Flea The Magician and Cat Scratch Fever are less likely to be scum.
Oh dear lord
While this seems genuine that’s actually more worrisome than it being forced because this is seeming to dive into Gambler’s Fallacy
In post 106, Thor Ragnarok wrote:Titus is probably town for picking 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Scum would probably be a little less careless and pick a 2 digit number which was still very unlikely to be picked, but would beat other meme high picks
Like 53, it would've beaten the 69 meme pick
yeah im on this too
high chance of being right near the end
im sure he does, but his early reads arent worth listening to
(we haven't spoken yet)
the good:
thor has started off townie
pp offering a read while others reveled in nonsense and/or mech
worst seems to poking people in an inquisitive way with his immediate entrance
FOS: Bee, Gamma
extended off topic is the domain of scum
i dont think i read a single bee post that wasnt fluff or fluff adjacent
on the draft, as others, i'm expecting scum utilised their power not to collide in both phases
phase two feels like the cuter way to int
haley
Fosing without sayng why, and a couple cheap reads thrown own.
In post 202, Harvey and Haley wrote:im sure he does, but his early reads arent worth listening to
(we haven't spoken yet)
the good:
thor has started off townie
pp offering a read while others reveled in nonsense and/or mech
worst seems to poking people in an inquisitive way with his immediate entrance
FOS: Bee, Gamma
You will find, partner, that none of my reads are worth listening to, not just early game I'm here for the vibez
My page 2 reads list wasn't entirely random. The bits of logic Thor posted have almost all contributed to that.
In post 204, the worst wrote:i did think it was kinda funny that gamma gave a s/o to thor's interactions after completely non-interacting with thor and not actually being able to state any opinions on thor's interactions lol, i'm not sure i'd expect gamma to have entered the ~~zone~~ this early in the game though.
... Is Gamma the kind of player you expect would directly engage someone first before making a read though?
He pointed out that Thor's interactions were a highlight before admitting to the scumread, doesn't that indicate some level of organic thought? The way you phrased this makes his actions seem much more aggressive wrt attacking Thor and refusing to engage.
-Harvey
You're trying to work out how other players are reading how other players read instead of just reading yourself.
In post 225, the worst wrote:i am pretty sure gamma doesn't actually scumread thor
where are you getting the idea that I thought Gamma was aggressively avoidant? where are you getting the idea that i think gamma is attacking Thor?
The phrasing of your post? Unless s/o doesn't mean... oh wait, "shout out"
"after completely non-interacting with thor"
"not actually being able to state any opinions"
-Harvey
Quotes are powerful. use them. I believe nothing you say with proof.
Floof.
In post 242, the worst wrote:first instinct is that your misread of my post is an authentic misread ~60% of the time and trying to look busy like ~40% of the time. i'm just like, really confused by how you actually got there. i'll meditate on it later.
I was referring to your bad vibes on Haley's post though
-Harvey
You're the biggest bad vibes, ngl. Haley is just... not here.
In post 249, Thor Ragnarok wrote:Why did no one pick 1 or 2 if no one else was going for it btw? I went for 11 because it's my favourite number but I would've gone for 1/2 to secure first place had I known
I mean... you don't *know* that no one else is going for it, right? It's reasonable to assume someone's gonna pick it
I'm sure anyone would've picked 1/2 if they knew no one else was going for it
In post 255, Miss Midnight wrote:
There's nothing compelling or convincing that I could tell you at this stage. I just got a towny feeling reading her posts up to that point.
Sure. I don't need compelling/convincing anyway, I just wanna look at the thought processes.
Any thoughts on ManateeGal's reaction (or lack of one) to her wagon?
-Harvey Specter
You have a thought process? o.o none I'm seeing here.
In post 305, House wrote:Oh, and for anyone wondering why i picked 4 (I remember someone askeda general question about picks), it's my favorite low level number and i wasn't concerned about rolling PR because i don't want my possible miselim for low content hurting town.
Feels like this is trying too hard to justify yourself.
I feel like this is fine, but dropping a vote on Manatee without comment on the quickly formed counterwagon is what feels a bit off to me...?
-H
You've been so idly poking and not dedicated you can hardly comment. Also which one of you posted this? posting -H doesn't help.
Oh yeah I wanted to reply to that
It’s kinda late for an RQS at this point, ngl I kinda think it might be legitimately scummy
There we go, I was wondering if the mere
mention
of RQS would be attacked as scummy without even actually doing it
@House: I acknowledge your comment on Manatee! My tiny concern was about how there was an Enchant counterwagon that formed just before that, and you made the Manatee vote without mentioning your approval of the Enchant wagon.
-Harvey
And yet, YOU STILL DON'T ACTUALLY GIVE CONTENT.
FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFY!
You're floofier than Gus' Moustache! THAN LINUS' BEARD!!
For their early townlean on Thor when Thor wasn't doing anything but setup speccing.
Note that it wasn't simple speculation about the setup.
Thor was making alignment reads based on it - why can't that be considered alignment-indicative?
House wrote:Harvey (and anyone else), i don't think anything productive will come of rehashing the me/Gamma drama wholesale, but if you have specific questions, I'll be happy to address them.
Uninterested unless it's still ongoing.
-Harvey
I'd need to go over Thor at some point when spoons permit but I don't think Thor was getting alighnment based reads on it.
Also, should be uninterested anyway, that got way outta hand, ngl.
Did you not say you had a shitty surface level townread on us before? What caused the demotion to 4th/5th choice of wagon?
House wrote:
What alignment reads did he make, exactly?
The only thing i found didn't match up with his stated reads or votes.
Sure, some examples: 98: 2 likely scum in group of 5 106: Titus town 228: Unlikely scum slots based on statistical pick history
If the response is that anyone can point these out, I'd argue that anyone could post anything - there's nothing specific to these that make them invalid as a basis for forming an early read.
Can you point out the contradiction between his setup-reasoned reads versus votes? That's more interesting to me.
-Harvey
Answered your own question, amazing.
Estimation...
Absolutely NAI if we're honest.
Random distribution proves nothing.
Thor did state it, but likely only as an observation of interest. Draft positions are heavily randomly determined, as opposed to number picks - so I doubt that Thor actually places any stock in that.
But I agree with the next part.
@Thor
, did you have stronger reasoning to vote Gamma than from your earlier likely-containing-scum pools?
-Harvey
Almost like these games are randomly determined by multiple random factors.... and worse still.. the human element.
Yes, I made a resolution before joining the game that I'd not hopelessly refresh the page every minute and just appear twice a day for a while. I was expecting you would make a comment on my slot's lack of thread energy.
-Harvey
Thread energy ain't the problem, its the content.
Like I believe that even floof can have content, i'm struggling to see much in yours beyond giving out nothing and looking busy.
In post 621, Gamma Emerald wrote: it felt like you were scum who didn’t feel like you had a good entrance available so you tried to float the RQS boat out
That feels extremely hollow given I had plenty of other content by then (that was my 26th post) and around the same time too...?
-Harvey
... content? where?
Also, it was the 23rd in your ISO, so probably about your 19th overall.
In post 623, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:It's easy to conjecture about what numbers scum would pick, but it's not particularly helpful - and their conjectures aren't necessarily accurate. I've seen all 3 scum pick double digit numbers for the express purpose of avoiding number collision, which did end up working out to scum's benefit. This kind of setup spec (or draft spec, specifically) read more like busywork to me. And consequently, giving him a townread in 202 seemed premature.
I'm not arguing about the absolute accuracy of these conjectures, rather how they compare against other tells.
Consider:
"I think X is towny for doing <Y> early in the game!"
"But scum can easily do <Y>"
Any
possible value you can fill for <Y> can be faked by scum and thus not necessarily accurate, especially in early game. That doesn't diminish the value of these reads.
Draft spec is busywork if it leads nowhere, but in his case it had already seemed to set a prior for alignments of certain others.
-Harvey
Sure I got deja vu.
It's almost like the game is randomly generated and there's a human element to it...
Mech Spec here is busywork. it's why I've not touched it.
In post 629, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I suppose you can say that, but it's not like he voted anyone in his scumpool by that point. How could you tell he was going to follow throughm, or if the draft spec reads even meant anything to him?
I don't really expect immediate consistent follow-throughs but I did assume that would factor into his play in a more meaningful manner, hence my question to him earlier on his Gamma vote when House pointed that out. I don't think that was an unreasonable assumption at that point.
In post 633, Gamma Emerald wrote:Kinda
I have literally zero ability to tell you two apart by tags
Our posting styles are also different (evidenced by one of my partner's earlier posts), and my partner also packs more content into single posts. This kind of hasty assumption feels unexpected from you.
-Harvey
Genuinely haven't seen enough from your partner to make solid comparisons. There's some differences in writing style but eh.
I'll bite. Was your "kewl, vote stays" in response to Gamma's suspicion on my post about RQS?
Did you also happen to assume that my "RQS" post was an awkward entrance from another head? If not, why was mentioning it scummy?
-Harvey
More questions and bad assumptions.
In post 671, Harvey and Haley wrote:Right. And would you be able to describe your dislike of my slot's content?
-Harvey
Taaadaaaaaa!
In post 672, Harvey and Haley wrote:And speaking of pointless filler - your only stated read this game is a scumread of us because you don't like our content.
Any comments on that?
5 posts per spoiler...
to surmise my thoughts on your slot rn...
{Yes I have the cat ears.}
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:26 am
by Miss Midnight
Just when I didn't think it was possible for my third eye to be opened any further, the last few pages goes and does it.
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:27 am
by Miss Midnight
In post 664, Thor Ragnarok wrote:the worst also gets a fancy sign of his own since he picks 3 every game, so his high position is less relevant.
Something_Smart also picks 9 every game. It's strange to me that you know that but not this, and also that I knew this but not that; not until someone pointed it out.
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:30 am
by Thor Ragnarok
I knew, I forgot to mention it because he wasn't as high as the worst