Mafiascum.net

In post 649, kennyk wrote:I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

In post 673, AlwaysNever wrote:

In post 669, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 655, kennyk wrote:

In post 653, AlwaysNever wrote:

In post 648, GrandpaMo wrote:also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

Yes this is correct. However, let me elaborate more.

Yes we will be playing on scum's tempo, but that's the norm for final 4's.

There is no tempo to play unless to grant more time now.

Letting scum play the night is more strategic for town to concur. This is because we can analyze why scum killed during the night.

It is more of WIFOM stiution yes. It's kinda hypocritical for AlwaysNever to say we shouldn't be voting right now, but us sleeping gives us more time now in this day + f3. And if we are wrong about the vote in a f4, we auto lose compared to f3. That's why we always mechanically vote for no one here.

I initially also towered you @AlwaysNever. I was the first to come out and say you were town and RCEnigma rebuked that.

No, see, I don't mind no elimming today, I just don't want to do it right this second, I'd rather let the timer run out while we discuss rather than immediately voting to no elim, I can't see why voting no elim right now would give us more time, please enlighten me on that

In post 675, RCEnigma wrote:Want to apologize for the poor etiquette day 3, we should have used that time more efficiently with Titus still alive and speed elimming is a bad habit to give newbies.

That said I don't want to get fancy and wifom myself out of kennyk as scum 2.

I have like a small amount of paranoia about grandpamo but it's literally only "was he tmi'ing when he challenged me suspecting alwaysnever by saying he's always town here". Because there is the possibility he knows always' alignment.

More signs just point to kennyk as the last scum though. Grandpa already pointed out kennyk waiting for a second vote, I'd agree. Scum isn't in the position to make a move themselves and need town to make it for them.

Also no elim is always the right play here.

In post 675, RCEnigma wrote:but it's literally only "was he tmi'ing when he challenged me suspecting alwaysnever by saying he's always town here"

In post 670, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 663, kennyk wrote:If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

In post 673, AlwaysNever wrote:

In post 669, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 655, kennyk wrote:

In post 653, AlwaysNever wrote:

In post 648, GrandpaMo wrote:also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

Yes this is correct. However, let me elaborate more.

Yes we will be playing on scum's tempo, but that's the norm for final 4's.

There is no tempo to play unless to grant more time now.

Letting scum play the night is more strategic for town to concur. This is because we can analyze why scum killed during the night.

It is more of WIFOM stiution yes. It's kinda hypocritical for AlwaysNever to say we shouldn't be voting right now, but us sleeping gives us more time now in this day + f3. And if we are wrong about the vote in a f4, we auto lose compared to f3. That's why we always mechanically vote for no one here.

I initially also towered you @AlwaysNever. I was the first to come out and say you were town and RCEnigma rebuked that.

No, see, I don't mind no elimming today, I just don't want to do it right this second, I'd rather let the timer run out while we discuss rather than immediately voting to no elim, I can't see why voting no elim right now would give us more time, please enlighten me on that

In post 678, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 675, RCEnigma wrote:Want to apologize for the poor etiquette day 3, we should have used that time more efficiently with Titus still alive and speed elimming is a bad habit to give newbies.

That said I don't want to get fancy and wifom myself out of kennyk as scum 2.

I have like a small amount of paranoia about grandpamo but it's literally only "was he tmi'ing when he challenged me suspecting alwaysnever by saying he's always town here". Because there is the possibility he knows always' alignment.

More signs just point to kennyk as the last scum though. Grandpa already pointed out kennyk waiting for a second vote, I'd agree. Scum isn't in the position to make a move themselves and need town to make it for them.

Also no elim is always the right play here.

atp if everyone is agreeing with like my points + logic that means I should probably be the towniest person here fypov.

it just implies scum is town reading me because they don't want to try and build a scum case on a hard player.

RCEnigma wrote:Want to apologize for the poor etiquette day 3, we should have used that time more efficiently with Titus still alive and speed elimming is a bad habit to give newbies.

That said I don't want to get fancy and wifom myself out of kennyk as scum 2.

I have like a small amount of paranoia about grandpamo but it's literally only "was he tmi'ing when he challenged me suspecting alwaysnever by saying he's always town here". Because there is the possibility he knows always' alignment.

More signs just point to kennyk as the last scum though. Grandpa already pointed out kennyk waiting for a second vote, I'd agree. Scum isn't in the position to make a move themselves and need town to make it for them.

Also no elim is always the right play here.

RCEnigma wrote:

In post 649, kennyk wrote:I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

Greeting didn't go down because of any case you had on them. Their association/votes already looked bad, the competing wagons day 1 looked bad for them, etc. It was either you or them and the order it happened in was mostly insignificant, it would have been a shorter game had we hit scum first instead of after but that's all.

In post 677, GrandpaMo wrote: no. you were pushing for a narrative that you wanted to lim someone. you initially disagreed with my statement then said we shouldn't no lim at this second. I thought anyone with logic -- would not hammer. I always vote no matter what so I hoped that no body would have hammered the no sleep because that's what we usually do ... 1 or 2 votes on the no sleep then talk it out.

kennyk wrote: If you prefered to just let the day run out (which is OK as far as I can see), why is your vote still on RCE?

kennyk wrote:

In post 670, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 663, kennyk wrote:If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

If you look back a few posts you could see I voted for no elim, too, because it is the best strategy we have. I unvoted so scum couldn't hammer the no elim and end the discussion early.

And I also said that i would vote RCE if I had to vote someone. But I don't ned to vote someone so I don't vote him. This is because a) there is a superior strategy (no elim today) and b) it could also be you waiting for me to vote RCE and you just hammering.

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I still have doubts)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

In post 684, AlwaysNever wrote:

kennyk wrote: If you prefered to just let the day run out (which is OK as far as I can see), why is your vote still on RCE?

would you rather that I vote you instead?
also I was waiting for RCE to respond in thread to my vote, but he didn't even notice it so....

kennyk wrote:

In post 670, GrandpaMo wrote:

In post 663, kennyk wrote:If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

If you look back a few posts you could see I voted for no elim, too, because it is the best strategy we have. I unvoted so scum couldn't hammer the no elim and end the discussion early.

And I also said that i would vote RCE if I had to vote someone. But I don't ned to vote someone so I don't vote him. This is because a) there is a superior strategy (no elim today) and b) it could also be you waiting for me to vote RCE and you just hammering.

are you just mirroring what Gpa had to say?

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

In post 688, kennyk wrote:

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

And this gives scum the script for who is best to kill tonight:
If it is Grandpa: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.
If it is RCE: kill Always and I am elimed.
If it is me: kill Grandpa and RCE is elimed.
If it is Always: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.

But as everyone knows this now, are we all going to stick to the predicted votes?

In post 687, kennyk wrote:To the mirroring-thing: Yes, i mirrored him on purpose, because it is true in both directions. If either one of us is scum a vote on RCE would have meant a hammer and with that an easy win for scum.

In post 688, kennyk wrote:

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

And this gives scum the script for who is best to kill tonight:
If it is Grandpa: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.
If it is RCE: kill Always and I am elimed.
If it is me: kill Grandpa and RCE is elimed.
If it is Always: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.

But as everyone knows this now, are we all going to stick to the predicted votes?

In post 692, AlwaysNever wrote:

In post 688, kennyk wrote:

In post 685, AlwaysNever wrote:okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

And this gives scum the script for who is best to kill tonight:
If it is Grandpa: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.
If it is RCE: kill Always and I am elimed.
If it is me: kill Grandpa and RCE is elimed.
If it is Always: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.

But as everyone knows this now, are we all going to stick to the predicted votes?

Curious that your first instinct is to think what scum would do, it's like... you are one

In post 694, RCEnigma wrote:i guess what it comes down to for me are interactions and stances with uhuh. I dont think either kenny or always' interactions are very good (being nuetral on every single slot in the game is meh) but unlike kenny, always at least has town qualities elsewhere. the only real hardline kenny's drawn was with dorsey but that was moreso dorsey pushing the issue.

In post 694, RCEnigma wrote:i guess what it comes down to for me are interactions and stances with uhuh. I dont think either kenny or always' interactions are very good (being nuetral on every single slot in the game is meh) but unlike kenny, always at least has town qualities elsewhere. the only real hardline kenny's drawn was with dorsey but that was moreso dorsey pushing the issue.

In post 697, AlwaysNever wrote:Okay, judging from the posts from you both, I can formulate that if Kenny survive to the next day, he will be voted out immediately by the one that is left (me and either one of you,

or just both of you

), and if Kenny is dead tomorrow, you both will vote me. Is that correct for me to assume?

In post 697, AlwaysNever wrote:Okay, judging from the posts from you both, I can formulate that if Kenny survive to the next day, he will be voted out immediately by the one that is left (me and either one of you), and if Kenny is dead tomorrow, you both will vote me. Is that correct for me to assume?