Mafiascum.net

Hmm. Little theoretical here.

Vig/sk shoots at every chance. Assuming two anti-town roles remain because this isn't a dram game.

N5: 9:2
D6: 7:2
N6: 6:2
D7: 4:2 (mylo, if at least one shot hits town and there is 2groupscum, rather than a sk+1 groupscum.) If a vig, a mislynch on this day makes it 3:2 going into night, 2:2 and a loss the next day, so 50% chance of a shot this night giving town one more chance. A second mislynch on not the vig means the game ends in a draw.)

Town gets 2 lynches, and 2 vig shots. 4 town controlled kills, two less useful than lynches.
Vig only has one shot left (I have to assume any vig remaining has at least one shot remaining. Otherwise there's little cause to not claim because they're basically VT (other than attempting to draw a NK, which the current town sentiment ensures will never happen if they claim cleanly).

N5: 9:2
D6: 8:2
N6: 7:2
D7: 6:2
N7: 5:2
D8: 4:2 (mylo)
N8: 3:2 ( vig shoots for maximum chance of hitting scum to give town one more mislynch chance)

3 lynches, 1 vig shot.

Odd night/non consecutive vig

N5: 9:2
D6: 7:2
N6: 6:2
D7: 5:2
N7: 4:2 (a shot on this night gives a 40% chance of hitting scum, but loses the game if the vig is wrong. Probably shouldn't do it)
D8: 3:2(lylo)

3 lynch, one shot. 2 lynch, 2 shot if the vig shoots on N7 with that 40%

Versus

N5: 9:2
D6: 8:2
N6: 7:2
D7: 6:2
N7: 5:2
D8: 4:2 ( mylo)
N8: 3:2

3 lynches only. So, I *think* any vig should shoot at most once more at the latest time possible? Like N7/8 . Assuming no further scum flips before then.

None of this takes into consideration the conftown being conftown. I recommend whoever is the vig plot all this out and figure out what's optimal in terms of forcing scum into a position where they're facing off against as many or more conftown than there are lIving scum, if such is possible, and plan/act appropriately.

And yes, this is all assuming you're mislynching podo, because you are. :p

Its also assuming we have a vig

Only the last couple are. The first scenario, that of unlimited shots, is most likely if we're looking at a sk, and I treat it as such.

Only difference between vig vs sk is on that last day, town is either in a Kingmaker position choosing between the sk and the scum, or they have a chance at lynching the last scum/sk...or they might cross kill one another, leaving town victorious.

The rest of it all works out the same basically.

You're also assuming only 2 antitown remain which I'm not really sold on if we have an sk

That's because you have no concept of balance.



<3

<_<
Asshat

This is also a somewhat low power game compared to the insanity of Soccer Spirits
I'd expect three more scum at most, two is more likely

Fine dram u were right.

Yep.

Also, I'm the vig.

Took the shot at TPP because if they were town, it would mean a no kill, which is what we needed, and if they were scum and lying about being BP, then, well, they're dead, which is also what we needed.

And yes, of course, sircakez is the motherfucker who had my flavor. I'm obviously Mr. Hyde, and we enabled one another.

Ah

So sad that I was wrong about TPP though. I was hoping to have a game of perfect reads, but alas, it wasn't to be.

Well I could see the last scum being maybe clubbed or the TO slot

Because I could see flavor cop being scum

It's not going to help that I checked SirCakes, and got J&H. I still say we go after dram, best bus ever?

Weird decision on their part to target shotty two nights in a row.

Let's have some claims, shall we.

Mainly, I'm looking for anyone else in this game who had the ability to block someone+blocked shotty on N1. Since it's unlikely scum had two roleblockers, the real question is whether or not someone else blocked him, or if they're simply scum who knew whenever TPP(who was under some degree of pressure from D1) flipped, it would exonerate their lack of results.

Mala has moved into 99% town, btw, There aren't enough slots left for groupscum for there to be a marquis/mala pairing going on, which is something I've been suspicious of for quite some time. Marquis could still be scum, of course, but if I recall correctly he's spearheaded pushes against scum? I may be wrong though.

shotty, why didn't you check a conftown who hadn't claimed yet?

He has a weird tunnel on me and I thought he was playing strange. I figured scum would kill one of the unclaimed to try and make me look bad, so I figured I had a better shot checking outside of that.

Wish cakes had claimed yesterday so we'd know his N2 target, since obviously the no kill was from a doc save, not a town jailkeep on shotty.

Makes things look even worse for that slot, actually. :-/

BG+IC with an odd night enabled doctor. Does Itlepips claim make sense? It might not, actually. :-/

Did Dram ever claim?

Flubbernugget: who did you track, and what was your result?

Itlepip, claim your targets for each night please. (Realized my statement above about cakez' lack of targeting information was ambiguous. Because itlepip is around, cakez may have protected him on N2, which means his target was the target, or cakez target may have simply been correct.

I'm missing one, I bged Ogre, Marquis and Pistach last night but either I forgot to submit one night or I can't find it.

Ask Rob13 to confirm

Also, you're missing 2 action submissions. We're on D6.