Mafiascum.net

nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

FINAL ANSWER FOR DAY SIX:

Scum are Gamma Emerald + Skygazer + Vaxkiller

If I'm alive tomorrow, I will reassess to make sure this still makes sense to me.

But I think JarJarDrinks is very likely town now and I saw a few things in Golden Robster's ISO that look like bad plays for scum to make. I don't like this dichotomy.

(I should point out that I'm far more sure of Gamma Emerald and Skygazer than Vaxkiller, who I am mainly lumping in there because nobody else seems to make sense as scum with my other two scumreads)

I will compromise on Vaxkiller if I ABSOLUTELY have to (I prefer it to Golden Robster + JarJarDrinks), but Gamma Emerald is my preferred overall today

Gamma is also a solid lynch!

VOTE: Gamma

btw I double checked for the scenario that would indicate Krazy really IS scum with texcat + Gamma Emerald

and that scenario turned out to be false

so Gamma flipping scum makes Krazy locktown

I think Skygazer is more likely scum than Gamma is, but I think the game is just locked into a town win with a Gamma scumflip

I'd have to reassess with a Gamma townflip, but there isn't a whole lot different I don't think

the game is still in a state of being essentially locked barring town being pushed far off course and the townblock disintegrating

well, to clarify

Skygazer is more likely to flip scum to me, but out of all four possibilities between Gamma/Sky flipping town/scum, only Gamma flipping scum locks the game as a town win for me, the other three possibilities give scum a chance to potentially worm their way out of losing.

This all of course assumes that we can trust the locktown reads on Tchill and Wavemode (and that my reads on Mylo and Creature are accurate, but I think I've seen enough of both players to be able to assess that properly)

mmmmmmmmmm

Creature + Hiloninja13 are town
yeah, Golden Robster just equates out to town, I think
TehBrawlGuy is just town, he doesn't fit as scum with how I read the gamestate evolving the way it has
Krazy is likely town barring flips; the way he tried to push Gamma when texcat was being ran up and his posting today is irking me a bit and his town equity goes down a bunch if Gamma actually IS town, but a scumflip locktowns him for the same reasons (scum don't run up texcat for as long as he has and then pushes another scum when texcat is finally being run up, wtf)
JarJarDrinks has negative associations with the rest of the scumspects and texcat

that leaves Gamma Emerald, Skygazer, Vaxkiller, and Kublai Khan

I think that's good to leave today on in case I don't make it to tomorrow

All I ask town is to keep this in mind and Scioness Sajj flipping made those days goldmines.

Skygazer should probably be lynched tomorrow regardless, that slot is my strongest scumread.

If both of those slots are scum, then I'm probably dead on the money and Vaxkiller -> Kublai Khan will win the game. If Gamma is town and Skygazer is scum, then Krazy is in the PoE list but otherwise I probably have the game PoEd down correctly. Gamma scum->Skygazer town might need reassessing; I'd have to think about the possibility I'm townreading someone I shouldn't be, but it's not guaranteed I don't think. If both are town, then I'm fucking awful and don't sheep anything I say.

well gem is town

and davesaz was town so sky is town

soooo

Convince me

i probably won't

but either way, my reasons from 1512 haven't changed

in GE's case they've just been further strengthened by his continued play. and my point about aggression ties in with how i don't think scum!gamma is much of a "theorist" as it were. like when he pushed me based on his idea that scum!me forgot to use the neighborhood private thread and was trying to cover it up by saying i was intentionally not using it. or like his day 5 push of JJD. things like that

for davesaz, my reasons were further strengthened when he replaced out and his signature said something like "done with mafiascum, tired of people not listening to me" or such

In post 6936, wavemode wrote:i probably won't

but either way, my reasons from 1512 haven't changed

in GE's case they've just been further strengthened by his continued play. and my point about aggression ties in with how i don't think scum!gamma is much of a "theorist" as it were. like when he pushed me based on his idea that scum!me forgot to use the neighborhood private thread and was trying to cover it up by saying i was intentionally not using it. or like his day 5 push of JJD. things like that

for davesaz, my reasons were further strengthened when he replaced out and his signature said something like "done with mafiascum, tired of people not listening to me" or such

So then who's scum if neither of them are?

hop and tchill are town

gem and sky and vax and creature are the four people i still consider town based on the reasons from my 1512, vax having even less scum equity after tex brought further attention to (and attempted to heavily shade) his vig fakeclaim, creature having less after the texcat lynch, and gamma having a lot less considering I revealed to him my power role on night 2 yet i've been kept alive in favor of several VT kills since then

still don't feel great about TBG and I'd definitely lynch him over any of the names above. though he is admittedly rather low priority after yesterday

mylo reminds me of town mylo honestly. meh, there's plenty reasons to think he's scum this game but also reasons to think he's town

still feel bad about krazy for the reasons I gave in 5413. but again, lower priority

JJD pushing wheme lowers his scum equity but doesn't clear him. though texcat hard defending him the entire game (even chainsaw defending him at times) lowers it further

ankamius could very well be scum. someone give me a reason she's not. the andriod slot looks even worse now in retrospect than it did before, given flips and soft PoE

KK could also easily be scum here. i mentioned in 6385 that he shouldn't have much reason to be "excited" about a switch to texcat at that stage, when he had never been pushing tex and mostly been pushing TBG during day 5. sounded like a hollow bus

GR is my highest priority. I think his play and pushes have been opportunistic, one example of which i gave in 5518. i don't think there's any scenario where we should be keeping alive someone yesterday attempting to defend texcat, then today appeal-to-emotion self-voting, then backtracking on it after it didn't work and he got some votes. i dislike texcat's 1848 with "I guess it's up to Wheme and Robster". we know this is blatant scum/scum communication, and i see no reason to believe rob is not part of it. his claiming he was the mason partner of boon could be exactly like boon said, that he was trying to assess if the claim was real and possibly draw out the real partner to counterclaim. rob also authored post 6666 which means he is Satan

i'm 99% sure a lynch priority of GR -> KK -> anka -> JJD -> krazy -> mylo -> TBG -> Gamma -> Vax -> Creature -> Sky wins the game. even if the tail end turns out to be poorly ordered, the first few definitely contain the necessary scumflips to re-prioritize it correctly

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

good stuff anka sheeping this

Rob I think you already indirectly claimed but you probably should hardclaim. You're still L-2 and we're under 48 hours.

vanilla

still don’t have com access and I’m not typing large paragraphs on phone because effort

basically repeating what I’ve said earlier

lynch JJD then KK and consolidate under Anka since she’s my strongest TR

Krazy just for postgame analysis; if I was scum I would never ever hard defend my partner if they were a sinking ship and I’m just going to reiterate that right here right now

I would link past scum games but none of them are recent so it’s not far fetched to say I could just take advantage and twist meta (and I’m not even a fan of meta)

In post 6891, JarJarDrinks wrote:

In post 6889, Golden Robster wrote:if I was scum I would of bussed texcat, not hard defended and face the heat the day after

So why areu voting for me then? Shouldn't you be more suspicious of the people that were pushing Tex?

After all, why would scum hard-defend and face the heat the next day?

my own reasoning doesn’t apply to every other player because each player plays differently; it’s not a perfect formulae

and I don’t expect every player to have bussed but I think that’s one of the best places to look at after JJD and KK have been lynched

people won’t listen because they equate wrong reads = being mafia which I can’t argue with because that’s the logic that I’ve been using

JJD you didn’t have that big of a presence in stopping texcat lunch (or try to) so why are you acting like my reasoning should give you a free pass?

lynch*

phone autocorrect

VOTE: gamma

l-2 i think

if this is a redflip, then I'm ok going with Ank's views, I think they're generally sound.

if this flips green we absolutely need to off JJD tomorrow

if gamma is scum, why am i still alive and most known conftowns dead