Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 4.02

frog (1) - Mac
Mac (1) - frog

Not Voting (1) - Xiao Long

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

The deadline is Saturday, May 18, 2013, at 3:00 PM EDT (UTC-4).[/area]

[Xiao Long]

One question that's been on my mind is why would Nic leap at the chance to vote Mac after I did?
You two discuss.

[Mac]

Because he's scum, I'm town and he was looking for the quickhammer & win.

[frog]

Because Nic and Mac are both scum, it was a perfect opportunity for Nic to leap on Mac and set up a situation where one of them would be lynched so the other would be cleared for D2.

[frog]

Sorry, that should say D4, not D2.

[Xiao Long]

Except that would be a stupid plan if both Nic and Mac are scum since I was being exceptionally scummy during lylo and Nic could have just voted for me instead. Or not voted at all and tried to build a case against me. It wouldn't have been hard.

[frog]

How would it have been stupid? I've been in a game where it happened before and scum got a free ride until LyLo two days later. It is a valid tactic, and Mac and Nic could pull it off.
As for it being easier for them to try and lynch you, Mac was the main suspicion at the end of D2 and on D3, so the above plan would be a safer one for scum.

[Xiao Long]

No point in bringing up what has happened in previous games. This is the only one that is relevant to us now.
It would have been stupid because all scum needed was to lynch one townie to win and we weren't even a day into D3 when I caught Nic.

[frog]

They did only have to lynch one more townie, but it's at its most difficult in LyLo. The plan allowed scum player to seem all but confirmed so they can win on the next day. Sheeping your vote was the best opportunity to execute that plan. I don't know what more I can say, since I don't know why scum didn't try a different plan since I'm not scum.

Plus there was no quickhammer, which would seem to indicate that Mac is scum.

[Mac]

This is the point I am making. Your example is different from this situation ANYWAY and it doesn't make sense for scumNic to sheep a case on scumMac and not make his own if he wants towncred. He only made his own after he was caught.

[Mac]

No quickhammer indicates nothing. Xiao quickly unvoted and saved us from losing.

Keep digging, scum.

[frog]

This is the point I am making. Your example is different from this situation ANYWAY and it doesn't make sense for scumNic to sheep a case on scumMac and not make his own if he wants towncred. He only made his own after he was caught.

You seem to be missing the point again. It didn't matter which one of you was lynched, the other would get insane towncred.
He had been slowly moving your way before he sheeped Xiao, mind you. Look at post 481. Plus your non-interaction on previous days could have been a buold up to the plan, and if you'd been planning it for days then that neatly explains why Nic didn't choose to pursue a different target on D3.

Granted there were only 3 minutes before his unvote, but that's long enough for a quickhammer, don't you think?

[Xiao Long]

They did only have to lynch one more townie, but it's at its most difficult in LyLo. The plan allowed scum player to seem all but confirmed so they can win on the next day. Sheeping your vote was the best opportunity to execute that plan. I don't know what more I can say, since I don't know why scum didn't try a different plan since I'm not scum.

The problem with this is that he could have twisted it to make me out to be scum with Mac if no one followed up my vote. There was literally no reason to sheep my vote at that time unless he was rather confident he his buddy could have hammered him.

Plus there was no quickhammer, which would seem to indicate that Mac is scum.

There was no quickhammer because I unvoted as soon as I saw Nic's vote (meaning I kept refreshing until someone voted after I did.)
I knew immediately Nic was scum, but I wanted D3 to play out so I could find more information. Both you and Mac are exceptionally viable candidates for being his scum buddy. I was hoping by me saying that I would most likely vote Mac that one of you two would scum/town slip, but you both continued to do the boring thing of saying, "I'm not scum, he is."

[Xiao Long]

Granted there were only 3 minutes before his unvote, but that's long enough for a quickhammer, don't you think?

I was confident that it wouldn't happen as the only other person online at the time was Didi, and I was quite certain Didi was town - something I didn't want to let onto until I did his ISO.

[Mac]

No? It's not like everyone was present and posting prior to Xiao's unvote.

If that isn't scum flailing then I don't know what is.

[frog]

Actually, Xiao, Nic couldn't possibly have twisted it to say you're scum. If you voted Mac and Nic voted you, then that means that 2 of you/Nic/Mac would be scum; that's a 2/3 chance of losing the game outright. Given that a Nic/Xiao or a Mac/Xiao scumteam looked unlikely by D3, Nic voting you was hardly a valid tactic.

[Xiao Long]

Actually, Xiao, Nic couldn't possibly have twisted it to say you're scum. If you voted Mac and Nic voted you, then that means that 2 of you/Nic/Mac would be scum; that's a 2/3 chance of losing the game outright. Given that a Nic/Xiao or a Mac/Xiao scumteam looked unlikely by D3, Nic voting you was hardly a valid tactic.

Not quite, if I voted Mac and Nic voted me, we could still only assume that at least one of me, Nic and Mac were scum.

It's like this:
D3 starts with -
Xiao
Nic
Didi
Mac
Frog

There's five of us, two being scum. Ignoring the fact that we now know Nic and Didi's roles, any of us five could have been scum.
Me voting Mac was a scummy thing to do because if Mac was town, then both scum could have voted after me and won the game.
Nic could have used my vote against me and voted for me instead. Doing this, I wouldn't be hammered because Nic was scum. This would reveal to us that at least one of me and Nic were scum. It would reveal nothing about Mac, though.

[frog]

Alright, so in this given situation:

Vote count:
Mac (1) - Xiao
Xiao (1) - Nic

Assuming no quickhammers, it does indeed indicate one of you and Nic is scum. Now, assume Mac is town. If this is the case, scum could win by getting one townie on the Xiao wagon and the other partner hammering. TownMac would likely vote Xiao (In LyLo, if you are town and someone votes you, the best bet is to assume they are scum and vote them, since if they're not you get quickhammered anyway, so you don't lose anything) and his partner would hammer. In other words, if Mac is town and Nic is scum, scum wins when Nic votes Xiao.

Now, assume Mac is scum. ScumMac, in order to seem town, should vote Xiao. But wait. When there's no quickhammer it means that two of Xiao/Nic/Mac are scum (you say that it indicates that one of Xiao/Mac/Nic are scum, but if so, then surely Didi or I would have followed through with a plan similar to that illustrated above. Since that wouldn't have happened, 2 of the 3 must be scum). With so much suspicion on Mac on D2 and D3, this is a risky situation at best. But if he doesn't vote, we ask him why he doesn't and he's at a loss to explain himself (since there's literally no reason not to unless you're scum). The game unravels at that point and Nic and Mac lose.

Do you see what I mean? If Mac were town then Nic would have voted you, Mac votes you, and his partner hammers. The fact that this didn't happen shows that Mac is scum.

[Xiao Long]

Now, assume Mac is scum. ScumMac, in order to seem town, should vote Xiao.

Or he could tell everyone to slow down and start thinking about things more so that we don't rush into a mislynch. That would seem even more town, honestly.

But wait. When there's no quickhammer it means that two of Xiao/Nic/Mac are scum (you say that it indicates that one of Xiao/Mac/Nic are scum, but if so, then surely Didi or I would have followed through with a plan similar to that illustrated above. Since that wouldn't have happened, 2 of the 3 must be scum). With so much suspicion on Mac on D2 and D3, this is a risky situation at best. But if he doesn't vote, we ask him why he doesn't and he's at a loss to explain himself (since there's literally no reason not to unless you're scum). The game unravels at that point and Nic and Mac lose.

Do you see what I mean? If Mac were town then Nic would have voted you, Mac votes you, and his partner hammers. The fact that this didn't happen shows that Mac is scum.

All of this doesn't matter because you're assuming there is only one possible way for them to act in that situation.

[frog]

No, if he doesn't vote you after you vote him then that screams scum. If there's no quickhammer in that scenario and he isn't voting you then he is scum. There's no 'seems' since at that point it is definite.

That is one possible way. I honestly don't see what other ways there are that are not absurd. Either way, we're talking about hypotheticals here.
Don't ignore the last bit. The fact that the first option (going after you) wasn't followed proves that Mac is Nic's partner.

[Mac]

How in ANY POSSIBLE SCENARIO does me not voting Xiao indicate I'm scum?

[frog]

Have you even read the post?

[Xiao Long]

No, if he doesn't vote you after you vote him then that screams scum. If there's no quickhammer in that scenario and he isn't voting you then he is scum. There's no 'seems' since at that point it is definite.

I have to disagree here. Because if I'm voting Nic and Nic is voting me, then TownMac will not want to mislynch when we're in Lylo - meaning if townmac puts his vote on whoever is not scum of me and Nic, then we end up with the other scum coming in and hammering town. This means that ScumMac will also not want to place a lynch so that he can secure a win should someone vote for town.

Don't ignore the last bit. The fact that the first option (going after you) wasn't followed proves that Mac is Nic's partner.

How?

[Xiao Long]

Er, means that ScumMac will not want to place a VOTE so that he can secure a win.

[Mac]

@mod - V/LA for the weekend

Answers when I return, if any are needed.