Hey I was just about to post about that. So I think scum thought that sircakez was low activity (he is actually normally active) because he was trying to lay low as a power role.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:33 am
by Creature
but I think the ideal play for scum is to PR hunt so they don't kill someone based on their reads and give town info.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:34 am
by Creature
SirCakez was also a low-info target, so I don't think scum killed based on reads.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:35 am
by Dwlee99
The question it makes me wonder is if that means that anyone could have commited the kill or if it means that people who know sircakez and have played with him are more likely to kill.him.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:36 am
by Creature
I don't think we're getting info on who would've killed SirCakez, I am imagining a lot of reasons SirCakez would be the kill.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:36 am
by eagerSnake
Right. Which would lead me to believe at least 1 of the scum is a vet.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:38 am
by Creature
Why? Some newbscum actually go after ICs/SEs because of their experience.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:38 am
by Dwlee99
So since it is kind of leading towards this, I laid out a blanket no NKA mostly because in most cases it is difficult to determine why someone was killed. If, however, you can pinpoint a specific reason that has a very likely chance of being the case you can analyze that. Saying "He was scum read by who the night kill was" doesnt meet that criteria.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:41 am
by Creature
We don't need to NKA anyway, we have a bunch of posts to make a solid read.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:43 am
by Dwlee99
With this case I dont think we can determine who is more likely to kill sircakez unless I was somehow able to see everyone who has played with sircakez when he was town and active.
pedit yea true
I am currently going to stick my vote on atm487 because I feel DotW and LQ aren't scum together, most likely because:
1. They would try to have different opinions rather than attacking me and my reads.
2. I am getting a slim town feeling on both, but I must be wrong in one of them.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:45 am
by eagerSnake
NKA's just as vital as lynch analysis.
Yes, tread carefully; nightkill analysis is a wifom minefield. It's easy to get lost, since usually, there's no single reason a player dies; generally, it's multiple factors combined. So it's impossible to be certain.
...But it's not something to be flat-out ignored. If you can figure out the reasons why that player died (common ones being: obvtown, reads dangerously close, is a rational player capable of changing their reads, and might be a PR), then you can better figure out who killed them. Who had the most to gain from their death, and why? Who is more likely to kill them? What does the kill accomplish? Was it random or planned? Things like that.
Again,
Don't put too much stock in it.
You don't want to ignore NKA, but you don't want to put much faith in it. Let it contribute to a read, not be the entire basis of a read.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:49 am
by Creature
I wouldn't use NKA to see who would kill X, but I would analyse X's interactions with others as I know they're town.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:56 am
by Dwlee99
From Wiki wrote:
Btw do not blindly follow the wiki. They can be wrong. In my most recently (or second most recently?) completed game I used the wiki to believe that 2 - 1 - 1 prisoner dilemma was an automatic town win but then afterwords had someone come in and say "Hey that wiki article is wrong I juat fixed it."
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:59 am
by Dwlee99
In post 1028, callforjudgement wrote:(That is to say, sorry for anyone who was relying on the Dilemma page for strategy advice; I see that it got linked at one point. Luckily in the end, I don't think it mattered.)
In post 1027, callforjudgement wrote:One thing I noticed when reviewing this setup is that 2:1:1 is actually a three-faction draw, rather than the typically acknowledged town win. I had to wait for the game to be over to update the page, but it's been done now.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:00 am
by Dwlee99
oops wrong order for the quotes, oh well you can figure it out.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:06 am
by eagerSnake
True. Let's not make the NK our sole, or main, reason for a lynch. But we shouldn't ignore it or dismiss it, either. It is difficult, or even impossible at this point to determine the exact reason for this kill, but as town we should still look into
all
of the evidence.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:10 am
by Creature
Look at who was whiteknighting/townreading SirCakez and look for fights that look TvS (or TvT) where SirCakez is involved.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:11 am
by Dwlee99
In post 718, eagerSnake wrote:True. Let's not make the NK our sole, or main, reason for a lynch. But we shouldn't ignore it or dismiss it, either. It is difficult, or even impossible at this point to determine the exact reason for this kill, but as town we should still look into
all
of the evidence.
If it is impossible to get anything from the kill we shouldnt use it as evidence..
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:17 am
by eagerSnake
I didn't say impossible to get anything and you already know that.
I said
difficult or impossible
to determine the
exact reason.
As Town we usually never know exact anything... so does that mean we should throw everything out that we can't be 100% sure of? In that case we're throwing out
everything.
Again, only scum would want us to think that way.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:18 am
by Creature
but we shouldn't focus on it.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:20 am
by Dwlee99
I dont think you understand that unless you can determine the exact reason someone was killed nka is almost useless. (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
I promise you I would not lie to newbies about game theory in order to gain an advantage.
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:21 am
by eagerSnake
In post 719, Creature wrote:Look at who was whiteknighting/townreading SirCakez and look for fights that look TvS (or TvT) where SirCakez is involved.