Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[nancy]

I have to sleep Nacho. I'm sorry.

[nancy]

I'll be awake again before deadline to hammer anything that needs hammering.

[Scioness Sajj]

given rampage's VT soft right there i think that actually makes him the optimal lynch over ircher (assuming ircher hasn't claimed somewhere before and i've just missed it)

VOTE: rampage

What do people make of this?

i believe i have seen her play like that in similar circumstances.

[Scioness Sajj]

One question to Scioness: Has your defense of Ircher been based primarily on the soft, or the play outside of it?

both?
i'm townreading him of content, soft is a bonus

[Ircher]

We’re not lynching NSG.

Because ______.

Because deadline and because the probability that we get a lynch on NSG is really much lower than either Rampage or me.

[Ircher]

Also, @Nancy, I would definitely support a teacher lynch, but again, I don't think there is enough support from the rest of the game, and we really do need a lynch before deadline.

[Scioness Sajj]

teacher hmmmmm

[Huntress]

Vote Count 1.18

Ircher (3) - teacher, vulcan logician, TheRampage
TheRampage (3) - Ircher, Scioness Sajj, northsidegal
northsidegal (1) - Nachomamma8
teacher (1) - nancy

Not voting (1) - Draynth


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

New deadline for Day One is Monday, 21st May, 11pm BST

, (in (expired on 2018-05-21 23:00:00)).

The site needs @ping capabilities so badly.

@Mod

can you give pseudo-prods to people upon request like Plotinus does? Please "prod" TheRampage and Ircher and vulcan and northsidegal?

Only if it's been more than 24 hours since their last post. All of those you mention have posted in the last 12 hours.

[Draynth]

I think TR is more likely to be town than Ircher after rereading some stuff

I agree with a lot of what Nancy said about the TR slot in 684, his posting feels honest and transparent so far.
I also think that 625 comes from scum!TheRampage

I've found Ircher hard to read to be honest, I keep flip flopping between scumreading him and townreading him.
I don't think he's my top candidate to lynch today but given I've been far too absent towards the end of this day phase that's on me.
That being said it could be useful as a lot of people have given stances on Ircher this game and he's interacted with a lot of people.

VOTE: Ircher

That's L-1

[Draynth]

I also

don't

think that 625 comes from scum!TheRampage

EBWOP

[Scioness Sajj]

625 is nsg's post?

[Scioness Sajj]

draynth who's your top lynch candidate?

[Draynth]

625 is nsg's post?

Sorry, I meant 661

[Scioness Sajj]

i could jump on draynth wagon btw


but i guess i intent to hammer ircher anyways

[TheRampage]

Here, I will help you guys out.

VOTE: TheRampage

Go ahead, I am green and you can lynch Ircher tomorrow

Um, genuinely WTF is this?! It is a terrible play for town!you, as you could go through AND weaken VCA abilities. It is a terrible play for scum!you for obvious reasons. It is almost like Ircher's No-lynch vote in just being terrible, but without any motivations I can understand at all. Dont do this.

PEDIT: Thank god. What were you thinking?

Alcohol may have been slightly involved; but I just really feel like Ircher is scum. I think the town is significantly split right now and I know my alignment. So i had said you know what, fuck it. Let me go ahead and get lynched so we can then turn that into reads when I flip green. The town gets good reads and we have a strong chance to win, meaning I get the win.

What bugs me is that right now we have Ircher at L-1 and I am confident that he is scum. If he wasn't, and knowing full that I am not, scum would have jumped my wagon and gone on his already and ended this phase. However, that has not happened. I find it highly unlikely that he is town, because if that were the case, that would mean that more then likely, both scums are on his bandwagon and I feel like he would already have been lynched and we would be in night phase. To me, that means that he is scum. No way we have gotten to this point with two wagons like this, and him not be scum. If Draynth had voted for me instead, I would have already been lynched. If only one scum is on me right now, then the other would have take the opportunity to hammer me.

Now there are only 2 possibilities for why there has been no hammer on Ircher. He is scum and the town is split and not knowing who to hammer; or he is town and scum is wanting to stay out while two town wagons bicker amongst each other. If he is town, we may be screwed because that would mean there is one scum vote on me and one scum vote on Ircher. But I feel like if one of the scum was on me, they would have already had a "change of heart" and hammered Ircher. That has not happened. Which makes me even more convinced that he is scum.

[Scioness Sajj]

Rampage, who do you think is scum with Ircher?

[TheRampage]

Rampage, who do you think is scum with Ircher?

That is a tough one to answer. We have been talking a lot about how if I flip green when lynched it will give us reads and same with Ircher. So there is a possibility that scum wasn't voting until recently; there is a possibility that when Ircher flips scum, that scum may be on his wagon as an attempt to clear them from investigation. There are a few ways Ircher's team mate could be playing this. So, in that light, we would have to consider Nancy and Nachomamma for their not being on either of the main wagons cause they could have been waiting for the chance to hammer me and then sacrifice Ircher next day phase, and then walk out of Night 2 as 1 scum vs 4 town. I will make it better, my best town read right now is Vulcan in my opinion. I feel that if scum is already on the Ircher bandwagon, it would be some one at the beginning of the bandwagon to avoid anyone saying scum hopped on at the back end to clear themself. So to me, that clears Darynth for now, and between Teacher and Vulcan, I feel Vulcan is a better chance at town.

If that is the case, then that means Ircher is the only scum on me. If none of the above is true, then that means that Ircher and one other person on me is scum, which means you or northsidegal. Now, I could lean towards NSG because she made her half ass vote and then disappeared and hasn't really added much outside of that. She hasn't pushed for my lynch despite believing I am scum. That to me is scummy. Scum don't like to lead town lynches, but they love to vote on them. So with that said, I believe she is the best bet on my lynch, outside of Ircher, of being scum.

[Ircher]

625 is nsg's post?

Sorry, I meant 661

I don't really buy it too much.

Some AtE reads as town, some AtE reads as scum, and some AtE reads as null. That particular one read as null.

[Ircher]

What bugs me is that right now we have Ircher at L-1 and I am confident that he is scum. If he wasn't, and knowing full that I am not, scum would have jumped my wagon and gone on his already and ended this phase. However, that has not happened. I find it highly unlikely that he is town, because if that were the case, that would mean that more then likely, both scums are on his bandwagon and I feel like he would already have been lynched and we would be in night phase. To me, that means that he is scum. No way we have gotten to this point with two wagons like this, and him not be scum. If Draynth had voted for me instead, I would have already been lynched. If only one scum is on me right now, then the other would have take the opportunity to hammer me.

No, this is wrong.

Scum don't hammer just because a person is at L-1 because doing such (esp. without giving intent) draws unnecessary attention to them.

[Ircher]

Rampage, who do you think is scum with Ircher?

That is a tough one to answer. We have been talking a lot about how if I flip green when lynched it will give us reads and same with Ircher. So there is a possibility that scum wasn't voting until recently; there is a possibility that when Ircher flips scum, that scum may be on his wagon as an attempt to clear them from investigation. There are a few ways Ircher's team mate could be playing this. So, in that light, we would have to consider Nancy and Nachomamma for their not being on either of the main wagons cause they could have been waiting for the chance to hammer me and then sacrifice Ircher next day phase, and then walk out of Night 2 as 1 scum vs 4 town. I will make it better, my best town read right now is Vulcan in my opinion. I feel that if scum is already on the Ircher bandwagon, it would be some one at the beginning of the bandwagon to avoid anyone saying scum hopped on at the back end to clear themself. So to me, that clears Darynth for now, and between Teacher and Vulcan, I feel Vulcan is a better chance at town.

If that is the case, then that means Ircher is the only scum on me. If none of the above is true, then that means that Ircher and one other person on me is scum, which means you or northsidegal. Now, I could lean towards NSG because she made her half ass vote and then disappeared and hasn't really added much outside of that. She hasn't pushed for my lynch despite believing I am scum. That to me is scummy. Scum don't like to lead town lynches, but they love to vote on them. So with that said, I believe she is the best bet on my lynch, outside of Ircher, of being scum.

Gah! Please lynch this. This posts shows

zero

town motivation.

[Ircher]

Serious question @Rampage: why

must

I be scum? Even if you don't think the probability is high, why do you feel that you must ignore the possibiities where I am town?

[Ircher]

From a statistical standpoint, everyone has a 7/9 chance to be town. That's a fact.

Even if scumhunting perhaps raises my chance of being scum by say 30%, the odds are still favorable towards me being town in this case, so again, I don't get why you are 1) ignoring me as if I'm already confirmed scum (not the case) and 2) assuming that I am confirmed scum and not even thinking about or considering the possibiility of me being town. (Your VCA doesn't count in that respect because it is a bunch of what-ifs that ultimately boil down to I'm scum because scum would've already done this if I weren't, and that is not particularly strong reasoning at all.)

[Ircher]

I want a response from TheRampage that isn't just him dismissing literally everything I see as automatically coming from scum; I want him to reevaluate his read and consider which parts of it are true and which parts are a stretch or are built on weak reasoning. I have *yet* to see him even try to do that which is about 75% of the reason that I believe him to be scum.

[Ircher]

Like, as far as I can tell, this is what TheRampage is basically doing:

ORLYScum

[Ircher]

Also this: Confirmation Bias