In post 676, Grendel wrote:I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)
Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.
Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)
Lunar Im still sorting rn
It would be great if all are town but idk just.
Oh so I see we view things the same way then.
In post 698, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.
I don't see any reason to vote there and think the people voting there are as opportunistic as the people voting me. It's popular because it's trendy, and it's trendy because it's popular.
So how is Bugs not opportunistic for voting you?
You say the people voting Bugs are as opportunistic as the people voting you, but Bugs is voting you, so aren't they also opportunistic?
Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:01 pm
by Luca Blight
Spoiler: bugs on Lunar
In post 462, bugspray wrote:im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very
npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish
In post 557, Luca Blight wrote:That vote came out of nowhere, possibly a late bus attempt.
Lunar should claim in their next post.
have you seen lunar's iso?
In post 562, bugspray wrote:calling my previous mention of lunar in 462 a strong tr is real reachy. a lot of the time i just have difficulty reading slots and pretend they don't exist and up until recently for me that was lunar
In post 566, Lunar Martian wrote:If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?
In post 583, bugspray wrote:Hey lunar nopom gave intent can you claim now or should he just hammer?
Bugs never mentioned Lunar at all until page 19, where they say pushing Lunar isn't controversial. This is pretty odd given Bugs was the leading wagon at this point, while Lunar was joint second wagon, so you'd think Town!Bugs would have some curiosity at least over this slot. Lunar had made some light defences of Bugs by this point: 399, 436, 460 which is a bit of a stronger defence.
Bugs then seems to offer another light defence of Lunar in 547, before cashing in at 555 after Gamma put Lunar to L-2. Bugs then goes really into it in their subsequent posts, egging on the wagon and seeming to taunt Lunar, which is really contrary to their previous stance where they were holding their cards close to their chest with regards to Lunar.
Lunar then comes back in and complains about people not talking to them etc, but doesn't address Bugs' vote or interact with them, and instead maintains the same stance they had previously - that there's no reason to SR Bugs. Lunar calls the people voting them and Bugs 'opportunistic', but doesn't address the fact that Bugs is voting Lunar themselves. During my interaction with Lunar I ask them to comment on my points against Bugs; Lunar says it's only based on meta which isn't enough for them. When I point out most of my points against Bugs are not meta related, Lunar moves the goalposts by saying 'I SR you so I don't care about your points'.
This is some really weird interaction, and to me most makes sense from a S/S perspective. Bugs held off voting Lunar as long as possible until it seemed Lunar was a goner (or at least one of Lunar/Bugs was) and then they went full bus mode. Lunar entered the thread full of complaints but very unwilling to give their reads and opinions, which had to be dragged out of them. Posts like 586 and 594 seem like Lunar just wants to keep associative information to a minimum by maintaining the same stances they had earlier. This is a common strategy that scum who are about to die use, so there's limited information for D2. Normally town here are much more open about their thoughts, normally willing to shout them from the rooftops, so I don't think this was Town behavior from Lunar here.
I'll look at Lunar's meta to see if it matches up with their play in this game.
Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:18 pm
by Luca Blight
I've just glanced through Lunar's one completed game, where they were VT, and their play is far superior to this game, despite it being their first game.
They actively scum-hunted and openly shared reasoning and reads. The only similarity I can see is that they were also dismissive of pushes against them. I have limited time but I'll try and dig up some examples and comparisons.
In post 514, Trendall wrote:Also he's never getting eliminated is he so he doesn't even has to sacrifice himself at all necessarily.
I really dislike this push from trendall on the claimed doctor. The doctor claim will be tested at night, and trendall should know better as an SE. VOTE: trendall
In post 605, Lunar Martian wrote:I see rock's posts as townie. I think it's a bit melodramatic for clidd to get so frustrated and claim, and for rock to say "just kill me"... I don't think either of them was the most voted person at the time they did that.
That said, this attitude is awful and does actually make it hard to kill anyone. Can people get over themselves and try to find scum rather than get themselves killed because they feel bad that they made a mistake?
In post 1009, clidd wrote:I'm pretty confident with a Lunar elimination.
And I'm pretty confident that you aren't all that smart.
I'm pretty confident that the following people are town:
me, trendall, clidd (you aren't half as smart as you think you are), ben dover (you are very overconfident and slip into confirmation bias very easily), Chumbo.
That leaves:
Lavar, Rockhopper, Lone, BM.
Out of those four, I'd pick BM and Lone to be the most likely scum. BM is being far too quiet. Didn't someone say BM normally posts a lot more?
In post 1113, Lunar Martian wrote:OK let me address it. This is a really dumb wagon. The case on me is pathetic, there's nothing for me to even defend. Ben you say my read on you changed a lot, but when you criticized me for that you even admitted that you had been scummy. There's one scum on my wagon and 4 dumb townies. Lone is almost certainly scum here.
What? When was that? I gotta reread.
Lone is not scum. Have you seen his recent posts?
Pedit: :thonk: what is your reason for BM again?
BM isn't posting after repeatedly promising to be active. When BM gets called out he shows up and posts just enough that everyone gives him a pass. Also Lone's "welp" post is super scummy. It's scum trying to look like a townie who feels bad. Just kill me, then tomorrow when the cop has no result and the doctor is dead and you continue to self destruct with terrible reads I'll be laughing in the graveyard. Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating. Look at Lone's justification for voting me (spoiler alert: there's no justification other than straight up naked opportunism because I'm a person that people don't townread and other people are willing to vote me). Even after being repeatedly prodded for reasoning why I'm scum Lone hasn't provided any.
The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.
In post 1137, Lunar Martian wrote:If you got voted to E-1 and people couldn't provide any reasoning but assumed that you were scum and were only looking for other scum based on their interactions with you you'd probably also get frustrated. You aren't engaging with me in good faith or making any effort to consider the possibility that you're wrong. If you can't engage in good faith with me, I have no reason to do so with you. It doesn't matter what I say, you've decided that I'm scum. So I'm just gonna say things that make me feel better about dying, which in this case means ridiculing you.
Um, we aren't assuming you are scum. There are reasons behind my accusation, you know. More than "Lunar is indecisive".
I'd get frustrated, but I'd definitely go and start pointing out the flaws behind the accusations, addressing each one, not:
In post 1117, Lunar Martian wrote:
Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating.
The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.
In post 1119, Lunar Martian wrote:[
It was the first time you mentioned it. Yesterday or the day before. You said you didn't like my read changing on you, but also admitted that you had made some very questionable posts.
And rather than assume me changing my mind is scummy you should ask me questions to try to uncover my true intentions. This is garbage play from you, tbh.
The only thing you fixed was adding in the possibility of "Scum would choose a read and stick to it".
I can't really engage with you in good faith because you are very sure that Lone is scum and so is BM, and the reasons you provided I just can't agree with. Maybe we can work something together, but the way you are rejecting the possibility that Lone is genuinely newbie town is not helping us get together in good faith.
I am thinking about the possibility where I am wrong, and it's likely there, but this is likely where we are going today and as Trendall said, don't overthink it. I'll reconsider everything D2 if I am wrong.
You aren't really re-evaluating. I'm not asking you to engage me in good faith on my scumreads. I'm asking you to engage in good faith on your scumread of me.
And clidd I think that the scum lie in: Lone, BM, Rock.
Eliminate me, you, Trendall, Chumbo, and ben as possibilities, and that's where you wind up. Lavar could be scum but I think it's somewhat less likely.
Here they show some healthy read progressions; they vote and push both Trendall and Clidd, but end up Townreading them both and refusing to vote for either of them. In this game, what read progressions has Lunar made? They've kept the same kind of reads all along, with a few little alterations here and there. I like how they ask questions with a view to sorting, like they did before their Clidd vote.
Lunar gives decent reasoning without needing to be prodded for it, like in 605.
They tried to keep the town on a healthy path in 864.
When under pressure they spew reads. Compare 1015 and 1156 to their behavior under pressure this game, where they just said 'read my posts' and refused to talk about their reads further. It's night and day.
In both games they've been dismissive of votes against them, saying there's no reasoning for it, but I don't think that line is justified in this game, as was highlighted by Gamma in 591.
@Gamma, Frogster, Grendel,
can you take a look a look at this and tell me what you think?
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:26 am
by Frogsterking
You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:37 am
by Gamma Emerald
I feel like there is a marked change in play but don’t know if I feel it can be attributed to something in particular rn
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:41 am
by Datisi
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:42 am
by Gamma Emerald
VOTE: bugspray
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:48 am
by Frogsterking
Luca I agree with your analysis on the bugs and Lunar interactions.
My current solve is gamblingpig, Lunar and bugs.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:53 am
by Luca Blight
Well I’m happy with the two main wagons, anyway. I’m pretty sure Bugs is scum, I could see a world where Lunar is Town as some of their interactions during the 1v1 felt a bit townie on a tonal level. Their interactions with Bugs really throws me off, though.
It’s quite possible Scum!Bugs has deliberately tried to make that look like a bus so that when it flips green it muddies the water a bit. The way Bugs suddenly went so hard on Lunar out of nowhere almost seems too obvious to be a real bus.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:00 am
by Frogsterking
It's very urgent and important that we BW the pig slot. I need your help.
acting pro-town on page 8. several good analysis posts.
200 from
Grendel
is a good point about scum not necessarily participating heavily in the thread.
Amelie and Luca
come in strong with quality posting. like what they are adding.
PAGE 11-16
pAGE 12 is nonsese. Nothing of note form anyone.
Tow reads
Frogster
Amelie
Grendel
Sketchy
Lunar
mom
I'm gonna keep my vote where it is for now. But I'm also gonna go back and ISO the two top wagons to see if I can get a read on either of them.
I believe the gamblingpig slot is scum and he chose to focus on the town players during his analysis, which I bolded in the quote.
I believe he chose to scum read one town and one scum which I also bolded in the quote. I currently believe Lunar is the scum. If Lunar flips town and pig flips scum then I will probably FoS momrangal based on this analysis.
My current solve is bugs + Lunar + pig.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:02 am
by Luca Blight
Pig’s being replaced anyway, so we’ll see what their replacement has to offer.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:06 am
by Luca Blight
I agree that catch-up is sketchy, though. Didn’t really pay it much attention first time around.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:23 am
by Amélie
I've skimmed the whole thread and am about to comment on some things I think are important
Can i get a binary reads list, (ei just names, dont worry about explanations right away), for the whole roster?
Im sorry you are not enjoying yourself. If you want to talk to me I'll be up several more hours EST time, and Ill try to keep an eye on the thread in between other things.
I stand by the play to make if you have a confirmable town pr, (Innocent child, a killing role, day ablity,etc) is to just out it now. That way we'll have more time to hunt real scum before EoD. But thats your MO I guess.
Grendel officially moved back down to scum. I just don't like what I'm seeing. Feel like this is a great way to try to pocket Lunar Martian. I just don't like it.
In post 566, Lunar Martian wrote:If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?
That’s a bit hard when you repeatedly avoid questions.
What are you reads?
I've shared my thoughts. If you aren't even going to bother reading what I write we aren't going to get very far.
And if you’re not gonna bother to engage with me about your thoughts then what do you expect me (or anyone else who SR’s you) to do here exactly?
You’re crying woe is me but not pushing in any direction. Have any of your reads changed recently? How do you feel about a Bugs elim?
Don't ask questions I've already answered. Read what I've written already. This isn't real engagement. You aren't doing anything. You're trying to look busy.
I'd like to say that there was a lot of really ugly and nasty looking misrep surrounding this post from Lunar Martian by Luca Blight. Luca will stay in my scum reads.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:28 am
by Amélie
Spoiler:
In post 601, Lunar Martian wrote:Trendall** - Mafia
AGamblingPig*** - Who?
Momrangal - Not really sure.
bugspray - Not sure, no reason to kill them.
OutWorldER** - Mafia
Amélie - Town
Gamma Emerald - Town
Grendel - Probably Town
Galron* - Not sure
Lunar Martian - It'sa me!
NoPowerOverMe - Mafia
Frogsterking - Not sure, thinking Mafia.
Luca Blight - Mafia, big time.
The list you asked for.
There are a lot of scum reads but this list isn't that bad.
This is pretty shady. Reconsidering my read on NoPowerOverMe. Final decision will hopefully be made today.
In post 618, Grendel wrote:I dont this this 1v1 between Lunar and Luca is heppful for ethier party. If both of you are town then maybe chill out for a minute.
-/-/-/--/
Lunar did you see the question I asked you about Gamma?
What do you mean "If both of you are town"
This sentence doesn't feel right.
In post 613, Luca Blight wrote:How can I follow up on questions I ask you when you flat out refuse to answer?
And the questions you repeatedly avoided earlier (like about me or Gamma being scum) I did follow up on.
Point to a question you asked, and a place where I attempted to answer it. Then explain why my answer is insufficient. Then I'll answer more. I don't think I've ignored any questions.
I’ve done all of this already. I just gave the example of you SR’ing me or Gamma which you avoided for ages, and I explained why your eventual answer was insufficient.
I’ll give you ten minutes to claim, and then I’m hammering.
I hate this way too much VOTE: Luca Blight
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:33 am
by Momrangal
In post 698, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.
VOTE: Trendall
This bugs me
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:37 am
by Amélie
Spoiler:
In post 628, Gamma Emerald wrote:wdym site meta WIFOM?
Also Luca’s slow burn to hammering is intriguing.
I don't really see why you say this.
If Luca had immediately hammered, everyone would say its scummy for hammering that fast.
If Luca stalls, everyone says he's stalling and that stalling is scummy.
No matter what Luca does here, he's going to probably look bad assuming that Lunar Martian is town of course.
Do you think that Luca is a player that 1v1's town as scum here in this context?
I think most scum hammers more more like a "swoop" then a "slow burn" (as Gamma called it)
He never hammered. He just disappeared is all.
In post 676, Grendel wrote:I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)
Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.
Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)
Lunar Im still sorting rn
It would be great if all are town but idk just.
I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.
In post 683, Grendel wrote:the more i think about the more i feel like Luca could have, (as scum), acted really offended and hammer before Gamma came out and unvoted. Like Luca, and Lunar where going back and forth a couple hours. That plenty of time to justify a rage hammer. So this means Luca is probably town here. Good Good.
No. I don't agree and my scum team guess of Luca/Grendel is just solidifying more and more for me.
In post 698, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.
VOTE: Trendall
I thought your top scum read was Luca Blight?
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:37 am
by Momrangal
In post 714, Amélie wrote:Grendel officially moved back down to scum. I just don't like what I'm seeing. Feel like this is a great way to try to pocket Lunar Martian. I just don't like it.
He was at L-1 with an intended hammer.
I asked you earlier, who do you even think is the scum that was commandeering that wagon?
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:39 am
by Amélie
My current solve: Luca Blight, Momrangal, Grendel.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:40 am
by Amélie
In post 718, Momrangal wrote:I asked you earlier, who do you even think is the scum that was commandeering that wagon?
A town wagon doesn't necessarily have to be scum driven. I haven't paid all that much attention to Lunar's wagon. All I know is that I dislike it but my scum reads really don't have much to do with this wagon.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:46 am
by Frogsterking
I'm interested in what you make of the pig and outworldER slots, Amelie. I know there is not as much to go on; but can you extract any information on their alignment?
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:52 am
by Amélie
In post 721, Frogsterking wrote:I'm interested in what you make of the pig and outworldER slots, Amelie. I know there is not as much to go on; but can you extract any information on their alignment?
AGamblingPig seems to really like narrating events is what I gather from that.
OutWorldER confuses me.
The answer to your question is no I really don't have any idea how to read these two players.
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:56 am
by OutWorldER
What do you find confusing about me?
Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:57 am
by Amélie
Strange timing but I'll reply in a bit. On the phone right now.
