Mafiascum.net

In post 600, Leaven wrote:Sorry to confuse. Yes, just tallying the counts. Before Dann pulled his vote, it looked like 5 out of 7 had gamma in top 2. With 7 left and 2 scum remaining, 5 is as much of a consensus as you can get. I'll listen to other cases, but a collective first impression hitting 5 for 5 is very compelling to me from a purely statistical perspective. This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer. I obviously can't be sure, but it just seems likeliest and talking myself out of it would just be fancy play syndrome. We haven't heard much from Dann or ythan, though. Regardless, when presented gamma/val vs clsr/ythan, I feel safer aligning with the latter given my read of things.

Like this just feels like a bizarre post to make and then there's a lot of it.

VOTE: Leaven

That's -1

SM wagon seems fine except that Leaven seems pointedly worse and now I kinda wanna look at Dann and Cows since it's already almost 4. There's a vote though.

Nah that's dependent on one of them having an ulterior motive to divert from Leaven and if that's the case might as well just do Leaven first anyway that's good enough for now.

I know it's late but y'all sure did disappear when I started posting.

i'm still here, gimme a sec

In post 661, Leaven wrote:Leaven - Gamma (2nd Strange)
Dann - Strange (2nd Leaven)
CLSR - Strange
Ythan - ?
Val - Assume Leaven
Strange - Leaven
Gamma - Leaven

I may be wrong, but I'm assuming one of Ythan or Val likes you for scum over me, and despite you voting me, I'm risking myself to save townStrange. Is there scumLeaven reason to do that? TownLeaven reason is that I like Gamma for it a lot more. I think the only scum reason for me not to vote you here is if you were my partner. So if gamma flips green, then town should go me then you.

working on something else, but thoughts on this ythan? with some of their posts it seems like they want to be flipped, and they talk a lot about scenarios in which they are flipped. i'm sorta caught up on this one in particular, since it seems like one of the reasons is to "protect one of their townreads"

They talk about being flipped, after Gamma. Is there more to it then that? If that's it I get what you're saying but it's not a lot.

I'm a little fried it's after four. I'll definitely be back by to check this out tomorrow if you have more to say on it.

In post 661, Leaven wrote:Leaven - Gamma (2nd Strange)

...

I may be wrong, but I'm assuming one of Ythan or Val likes you for scum over me, and despite you voting me, I'm risking myself to save townStrange.

Am I misunderstanding something here? It reads to me like Leaven is saying they have decided its likley one of themselves or SM is flipping today, and by not joining the SM wagon, he is risking himself being the flip to save a town!SM.

Then he has SM as his second choice for a vote if not Gamma?

Leaven, there are two scum outstanding. Even if you think Gamma has higher scum equity than SM when considered either/or, why have you ruled out them as a pair, and how you tally up the facts you are telling us you are prepared to sacrifice yourself to save SM, and have SM as your backup wagon?

In post 706, Ythan wrote:They talk about being flipped, after Gamma. Is there more to it then that? If that's it I get what you're saying but it's not a lot.

if i'm right the general pattern is that when pressured, they resort to these scenarios that include how scum!leaven would do this or that instead of what has happened IIT, which don't really seem that likely when you think about them (i've already touched on one of the scenarios so i'm not pulling things out of nowhere). what irks me is that it's something that is brung up more than once

In post 707, Ythan wrote:I'm a little fried it's after four. I'll definitely be back by to check this out tomorrow if you have more to say on it.

thanks for the work

if i'm being honest this vote won't stay on strange for that long, but i did think at the time that it needed a place to rest on since i've been so passive with voting but when thinking of legitimate reasons to think they're scum i just mirror what dann had already said in thread and i don't really go anywhere with my suspicion

i'm showing an elim pool tomorrow (or in this case in 12 hours or less. i stayed up super late for this one)

I investigated Gamma last night. Sorry i botched this town. It just read that sentiment was going to correctly get him. That's why I wouldn't join the ythan wagon, and now I'm not on the strange wagon to my own detriment, because it's 100 pct gamma.

To be completely clear, now you are at E-1, you are claiming cop, with a guilty on Gamma?

Yes

Alright. Counterclaims? If not we eliminate Gamma.

Actually, if you have a guilty why did you not say anything until now? Trying to eliminate without revealing you know, or just self preservation so you don't get NKed? I just have this sneaking suspicion this could be fake and it bugs me because it's probably not.

Because I'm a newb and honestly didn't know if I'm supposed to declare on a N1 hit. Plus it looked to me like we had 5 on gamma anyway, so I'd be able to get another investigation off, without exposing myself. I'm not sure if I was supposed to just allow a Ythan or Strange lim here (risking a ML) to preserve myself another night. Also, I'm pretty sure my cover was blown anyway, if Gamma didn't get limmed. I'm going to be away for stretches today, but I'll do my best. Sorry again to town if I played this wrong.

unvote immediately and kill gamma

we don't need more discussion this phase

leaven probably dies tonight which leaves:

StrangeMatter
Val890
cowsloveSushirolls
Ythan

as possible Gamma partners

I think we can go through and figure out which pairs are most likely tomorrow

I'm assuming no counter claim but that's mostly because this is just confirming my read on Leaven

I think you played it fine Leaven, especially considering it looked like Gamma might be taking the heat this phase

Gun to head

Gamma's partner is either Val or SM. Leaven, on the off chance we have a doc I would recommend you target one of those two tonight

If we have doc, scum has roleblock, but I guess that could be gamma. If that happens, I think town just wins though.

Reminder to say he's at E-1.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Gamma

Hammered