Mafiascum.net

Tbg is controversial to me, he's Too consistently town, that rarely happens

Thanks, I guess?

TOO*

Phone being dumb

I'm A-ok with tomorrow being between Sky and Rob. Not sure where you get a TR in GR, she seems obvious af to me, but I guess we'll let the town decide which case is stronger.

My reads are a full gamestate read, which had only been reinforced since I reasoned it out

Basically the way the attempted derail on Gamma was clearly scum supported but not in a way that indicates it was on a buddy of his instead

Idk how to explain it beyond that

Never change, Ank. I love these moments.

In post 6172, Skygazer wrote:VOTE: texcat

that sajj reads list was town

still TRing TBG

Spoiler alert:

What was the vc at at that point?

Do we think there are 2 scum left or 3 scum left because that will impact my willingness to being lynched today

Everyone hard reset.

Another set of lynch data will change things and I want to crunch it out before we lynch mob again.

2 left

Just letting Ircher know I have a sitewide . I am hoping to continue posting but there is a risk that power/internet will go out late tonight or tomorrow sometime, and the ISP has already said if that happens they don't fix it until the storm passes.



This does not change through Sunday anyway. I'll have some wallposts and stuff later but my reasoning hasn't fundamentally changed since the GR v. JJD post.

So I went back and made notes for the Texcat CFD since Ank asked what the VC was at the time of Sky's 6172 Texcat L-2:



During the Texcat CFD, there was a scion counter-wagon. On this counter wagon there was:
Ank, who started the Scion counter-wagon, but later put Tex to L-1 with low time on the clock
Sky, who joined the Scion counter-wagon, but later killed the Scion counter-wagon by leaving it at L-3 and put Tex to L-2
and *
(also JJD but I've explained at length why I think that slot is likely town, and the Gamma flip makes me even more confident in my read there)

*I have emphasized previously that "hard defense" is misleading here. GR insists she would not "hard defend" texcat if she was being CFD'd. First of all, I simply don't believe that. But second of all, GR did not *hard defend* texcat. Instead, GR *heavy pushed the counter-wagon* which is not the same thing.

Now, there are some problems here.

First of all, Sky moves away from Scion "because that reads list was town" -- the problem here being that Scion was obviously wrong about a lot in her reads list, so that actually is kind of a strange reason in retrospect.

Second of all, you COULD argue that the scion wagon was already dead. But at that point, Sky had already joined the texcat wagon and left the texcat wagon. If she thought texcat was going through anyway (which there's no reason to think she would), why would she have left the texcat wagon in the first place? And second of all, why would she come back to texcat with so little time on the clock? For Sky to be scum, her bus of texcat was either A) super dope, or B) she had like 0 awareness of the gamestate. I don't think either of those are particularly plausible, so that alone lets me think 6172 is alignment indicative and that Sky is likely town.

The biggest problem with Sky's slot is not Sky herself, but actually Frozen Angel. But I still am inclined to think her vanishing during Wheme was truly based on life and I am willing to see that as NAI RIGHT NOW. However, when I first entered the game, I did see Frozen Angel as a possible suspect because of her absence during the Wheme push.

So, IF you can explain why 6172 is not town-indicative, then I am willing to entertain the notion that Sky is GR's buddy, but .

For every other member of the scion counter-wagon during the texcat CFD, there is a compelling reason to see the slot as town. For GR, there is none.

Is it just me or does that case ping for some reason?

I have an unsettling feeling that this GR push is not natural

Now there is also NKA, which I guess some of you guys like for some reason. Personally I think it's WIFOM heavy, but I thought I'd give an overview of why I don't see Sky as heavily implicated by nightkills. I do not understand how Ank's "game state analysis" results in a Sky conclusion, or why she thinks it does not implicate GR, who seems the most heavily implicated by Nightkills.

Nightkills:
3. Joral Almost50, Town Vanilla, was killed night 1.
25. Flavor Leaf, Town Mason, was killed night 2.
11. Ausuka, Town Activated Innocent Child Neighbor, was killed night 3.
22. TheRampage PenguinPower, Town Vanilla, was killed night 4.
24. Scioness Sajj, Town Vanilla, was killed night 5.
13. EspeciallyTheLies Tchill13, Town Universal Backup --> Town Vengeful Neighbor, was killed night 6.
[now Hopkirk]

Now we have two types of nightkills here. TPR kills and Townblock kills. There are problems with over-reading motivation in either one. But I think if we look at Almost50, it's clear we shouldn't totally discount it, since Almost50 was likely killed to protect Gamma.

Since Hop and Tchill were both after the effective mass claim, they were both killed because they were TPRs. So while I'll mention they both suspected GR, obviously there's an issue reading too much into that.

Almost 50


Conclusion: Gamma +5 (need to consider this when deciding whether NKA has value at all), Vax +2, Creature +2, Ank +2
Almost50 was most likely killed to protect Gamma's slot, but the death does slightly implicate Vax, Creature, and Ank.

Flavor Leaf was a mason and was likely a TPR kill so we can reduce the equity of these by 1/2


Conclusion: GR +4/2, JJD +3/2, TBG +2/2, Vax -2/2, Creature -3/2
Although Flavor Leaf was a TPR kill and therefore the reads are muted, there were three people that were potential TPR kills in this gamestate, so it is still worth considering. Flavor Leaf's kill most implicates GR, slightly implicates JJD and TBG, and points away from Vax or Creature. FL could have been killed as retaliation for leading the town to the Wheme lynch, or from scum that was looking for an eventual Vax or Creature lynch. But it could plausibly have been done to protect GR's slot.

Ausuka -- although this is a TPR kill, her death slightly implicates JJD, Mylo, and TBG.

PP is hard to tell. He was killed while Hop was alive; so while he was killed partly because scum believed there may have been a protective at the time, he was also probably killed because he was townblock. He also implicated tex slightly, so he might have been killed to protect tex only. Also maybe a wifom nightkill since he had also laughed at the Gamma push.

That being said, his death slightly implicates GR, Mylo, and "the Creature Wagon" which is again GR, but also Ank and TBG - https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10339450
So I'd say +1 GR, +.5 Mylo, +.5 Ank, +.5TBG

Scioness nightkill:


SS somewhat implicates Ank/Android and JJD (+2 each), somewhat GR and Sky, TBG and Mylo break even, but also could have been to protect Gamma slot.

So if we consider all nightkills, we end up with something like this:
GR: +4
JJD: +2.5 (~3.5 if you add Ausuka)
Ank +2.5
+1 Sky
TBG: +.5
Creature: +.5
Vax - breaks even
Mylo: -.5 (+.5 if you count Ausuka)

-Just about everyone who has been nightkilled suspected GR
-Several people suspected JJD (although I still think he's town)
-Several people Ank (who I am leaning town on still for now, although at this point I honestly think I'd have an easier time casing her than Sky)

Obviously that's all based on my observations of the slots, and NKA itself already is WIFOM heavy. But saying that NKA somehow makes GR look less guilty is just objectively false. It is much worse if you add in Hopkirk and Tchill.

To be clear here, my point here is not to say we should lynch GR because of NKA. My main point here is to demonstrate that we should not *discount* GR because of NKA, which for some reason Ank seems to want to do.

am i being pocketed

So let's summarize with a 'full gamestate analysis' since GR likes to say I'm tunneling (which people also said with Gamma, fancy that)

Me
Wave -- conftown

The scum-driven pushes/strong townreads:
19. ArcAngel9 TehBrawlGuy -- Texcat L-1'd TBG and TBG led the texcat CFD (although I would have preferred more enthusiasm and for him to stay on the wagon the whole time)
15. JarJarDrinks -- Gamma nearly tried to CFD this slot, and while we know Gamma busses, he also was a much bigger pusher of the Wheme wagon. While he has done a lot of crazy shit this game, most of that stuff I see as 'aggressive town' than scum.

Weaker Townreads:
23. Myloninja13 -- Meta is weak, but Mylo's play has been very consistent. He lynches scum and town with the same style. While he is detached, I see him as a town lurker rather than a scum lurker.
6. Creature -- Meta is weak, and it is interesting that some of the early kills were people familiar with Creature's meta. While the Texcat unvote near the end made my blood boil, I still think this is more likely town than scum.
14. Lovebird Davesaz Frozen Angel Skygazer -- In addition to Dave's ragequit, which is WIFOM heavy, we have Sky's Texcat L-2, which I take as town-indicative.
17. Andriod18 Ankamius -- I took the slot as towny, but despite this slot champining NKA, she seems indifferent to the implications for her own slot as far as this goes. Beyond that, I don't really like her hard defense of GR or her push on Sky. But I'm not sure how much this is personality conflict/looking at the game in different ways. I'm not particularly inclined to see the Gamma push as a bus, though, so I'm thinking we're just town butting heads, which is fine.

Null:
20. Charles510 Vaxkiller -- I was hoping the KK flip would clear this slot but it seems like not. Vax gives us little to work with.

Strongest scumread:
4. Fumuki Golden Robster -- The wheme vote was a sheep of several conftown/townblock players, and I absolutely see GR bussing wheme earlier than other players (like Gamma). The unvote/vote thing on Wheme was weird and scummy. GR acted extremely weird during the texcat CFD and while she says a hard defense is against her meta, the way she did it was extremely scummy. Her progression on texcat is incoherent over the course of the game. Her interactions with Gamma were forced, fake, and weird. Gamma's interactions with her are forced, fake, and weird. This is definitely scum, the only question is who is her buddy, which I do not currently know with certainty.

I'm not liking this analysis

In post 7221, Krazy wrote:20. Charles510 Vaxkiller -- I was hoping the KK flip would clear this slot but it seems like not. Vax gives us little to work with.

You and me both.

VOTE: Golden Robster

Krazys analysis is $. I will post more tomorrow.