Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[Amrun]

I'm going to analyze them when I'm in the mood (ie probably when it's not hte weekend and I'm not v/la).

At this point, it's mostly the things I said Day 1 about Toomai + PoE.

Deep analysis might change my opinion entirely, who knows.

[fferyllt]

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.At the risk of outguessing the mod, I doubt scum has a third active PR besides the semi-strongman Basilisk and JOAT, so Jason's result does nothing to clear me of anything except Basilisk status.

Credit where credit is due for avoiding low hanging fruit this time.

[JasonWazza]

I just had a revelation: ffery, Stubbs team actually doesn't make a lot of sense although not impossible.
- I declare intent to hammer Stubbs.
- ffery says to wait for Nacho/Syr.
- Stubbs decides to hammer anyways to not allow Syr to come online and post.

Assuming they have daytalk which is likely considering that the previous Nexus game had daytalk, I can't see scum having such contradictory goals. ffery could have just said nothing and let me hammer if she wanted to stifle discussion. Why ask me to wait for her other buddy so that the one that was wagoned can self-hammer? Also I feel ffery would have hammered for the towncred rather than telling her scum-mate to hammer himself. This doesn't say as much about Nacho but I can't see ffery-Stubbs team.

You are going to get bitch slapped, i swear.

FF Scum and Stubbs scum QT scenario.

"Hey i'm trying to act town, so i will tell F-16 to not hammer and wait for Nacho, but since your scum and him talking is contradictory to our win condition as it gives people information, you should hammer yourself ASAP."

^ Extremely plausible, and even without Day talk, if stubbs thought he had no chance of winning, that was a no lose situation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Hmm, that works too. I didn't think of it that way.

[penguin_alien]

Why is Feg/me a strong townread?

Not so much Feg, but your replace-in reminds me of the newbie game of mine you recently replaced into. And unless you and MSG are scum together, I don't see where you refuting my push on him comes from anything other than town you. Sure, white-knighting, but it felt like you put in more effort than that.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How was my replacement into your game similar to this one?

[penguin_alien]

Activity up-tick, trying to sort people out. Like I said, it's reminiscent of the other game to me. Some of it might be confirmation bias, as I feel like a lot of my reads are stemming from my unease with Nacho's read of me plus a niggling feeling that fferyllt is pushing a quirky case on me.

Toomai's OK; not sure I'm getting a huge town vibe from him. I like his VCA at least.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, you didn't say much about Toomai D1 so I'd like to see the elaboration when you find time.

I am not as certain about the Toomai read anymore although I still lean town. Reading his game with Nacho in more detail, it seems like it only takes 10 minutes or so to do the graph ("not counting the time to adjust reads for each post" - I wonder how long this takes). I seem to have overestimated the amount of effort here.

Toomai, can you provide an updated graph and explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail.

[MSG]

...
Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted. One is town on you, his now-defender, one on

a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to

, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me...

how would you know what scum wants?

Hey penguin_alien, you never did answer this question.

[penguin_alien]

Why would scum want us to know about a special killing mechanic they had before the first night kill?

[MSG]

yeah, you know what, I reread that and you're right, stupid question

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have some stuff to say about MSG but first I want to understand some background information:

ffery, how good is MSG at reading you and how good are you at reading him? MSG, same question. The more detailed the answer the better.

[MSG]

I'm surprised actually that fferylt hasn't referred to this more, especially a game at mindromp where she completely took me and the test of town in.

this page had my last post on day four night chat where I had finally worked it out, but was nkd and it was too late for town.
[REDACTED BY MOD]

you probably have to register at mr to read it, sorry. ff is oblivion on that site.

I would probably say that game affects my impartiality here which os why I am keen to read others' opinions of ff here

As to how well we know each other's games: I don't know many games we have played but we have ben town masons together, worked together on two game designs and co-gm'd them, etc. she was gm of the first game I ever played when I was
subbed in as the outeds seer but was recruited by scum. I won that game which is the only time I have ever played on a scum team.

Sorry for phone post fail.

[fferyllt]

MSG, I'm really, really unhappy about your linking me here to me there. I've gone to fairly intensive lengths to avoid that because of the stalkerish stuff that has gone on there.

[Toomai]

Toomai, can you provide an updated graph and explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail.

I'm not entirely sure what you want by "explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail". The basic gist is that as I read I assign each post a series of numbers based on how much my reads for each player have changed due to that post.

If you have questions about specific raises and drops, you can point them out.

[fferyllt]

I have some stuff to say about MSG but first I want to understand some background information:

ffery, how good is MSG at reading you and how good are you at reading him? MSG, same question. The more detailed the answer the better.

MSG has seen me play a lot of games, but hasn't played many games, himself. I can only remember one game we played together where he wasn't town. He replaced for the SK in a game for a couple of days. I wanted to wait until the main player was back before finalizing that read IIRC.

We have played at least one game where I was scum and it was probably one of my best scum games. The game featured night chat, so the game thread never closed. He figured me out the night we killed him. Fortunately town didn't really pay his case on me very much attention. We knew who the SK was in that game because we role blocked him on the only night where there was a missing kill. I used that info to devise a fake claim that I used on the final day, right after MSG posted his case.

Anyway. That game was over a year ago and I don't think I have played on that site since then.

[fferyllt]

I like nacho's catch up, but I mean like, he's taking pretty safe stances here. P_A is a general scumread, and I'm so town at this point that it's actually funny that scum can't even kill me unless they want to leave Jason alive, which is even FUNNIER. (This doesn't happen often, so let me revel in it, okay?)

What was your Syr read?

When Nacho is town, he'll usually have a read that surprises me a little and makes me reevaluate. More than one surprising read in a large game. Sometimes it's a player that I think is scummy that he's found a reason to see town motivation. Sometimes it's a player I'm townreading where he sees something scummy.

Usually after a game day or two our reads converge more when he's town. I don't think he's ever replaced in to one of my games later than day 1, so I'm not sure if the dissonance/convergence thing will be a big thing.

The Toomai read kind of fits that bill. I'm taking a naive "oh wow look at the effort" view of his charts.

I'm thinking he's town in part based on Syr's day 1 play, and in part based on not getting a major twitchy sense from Nacho's posts so far. If he's scum, I think I'll catch on.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG Read: TOWN

I re-evaluated MSG based on Amrun reading him as scum and came to the same conclusion as before: that MSG is town.

I haven't read the link because of the privacy issues ffery mentioned so I don't have any idea of MSG's metagame. However, based on MSG's and ffery's opinions of each other's skills, it is quite obvious that MSG thinks fferyllt is a good scum player which would make him likely very paranoid if he is town. If he is scum and ffery town, it may be possible that he could fake paranoia but in this case, I find the paranoia to be very genuine and I read MSG as

strongly

town for that reason. Amrun, Nacho, I want your opinion on this and if you disagree, I would like to know your reasoning.

not having played here before, I don't know if it's common to have 1 or more jack-of-all-trades roles but it's not what I'm used to. if I had to choose I would say the claimed role of Filch is a better fit for the character flavour. "1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop" doesn't reconcile that well with the character of Colin Creevey

He opens with suspicion of Stubbs despite there being no reason to FOS Stubbs over Jason. He could be distancing so this isn't such a strong point but it is one more point in his favor.

Ok. I didn't say it was surprising but I don't yet see it.

What do you think of fferylt?

CDB explains to him what the FOS on LngrrrR was about but he sidesteps that in order to turn discussion toward fferyllt. This is consistent with his paranoia and his later posts where he reveals all of the suspicion. It is obvious at this point that he is suspicious of ffery but is holding back.

The scum motivation could be to make ffery look suspicious or achieve a mislynch. However, in 330, CDB tells him that he is not particularly worried about her. At this point, it makes much more sense for scum to find better targets. But you can see that the suspicion is genuine based on his followup where he says what is on his mind.

I'm keeping my powder dry until I work out the players a but more. Fferylt is the only player I do know and I noticed that her early posts were quite tentative. Like post 81. Town fferylt is very activist in my experience, whereas as scum she can take a bit to find her feet.

JasonWazza looks the most objectively scummy though, based on (what I saw as) his evasive responses.

He explains what is on his mind and his suspicions of the player that he knows well while hesitating to read the other players. He points out what concerns he has and offers his opinions on ffery's meta. This makes perfect sense from a town POV who is cautious of a player who he has played with before.

Sorry, was busy yesterday and did not get on.

Also not comfortable with cutting out 2 questionable outs under vote pressure when there's only 13 in the game.

But it's day 1, and we need to do something.

VOTE: marquis

still don't much like JW's play and have my doubts about ffery and syry.

He mentions his lingering doubts about ffery while moving onto the more obviously scummy players at the time. He also questions the read on Syryana based on ffery defending him.

well I'm conflicted. 3 claimed town power roles is not credible, but in order to sort them out:

JasonWazza: Argus Filch
Not a likeable character, but always acted to protect Hogwarts, but sometimes in misguided ways, and the role powers fit. Might make sense as a town traitor.

StubbsKVM: Colin Creevey
An important character in this novel but the role powers "I have a 1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop at my disposal" - don't fit, and no further explanation was provided.

LnnGrrrR: nearly Headless Nick
The alignment and role powers look like a good fit to the story.

On that basis:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: StubbsKVM

I remain to be convinced otherwise.

Makes the right choice. While I don't like the last statement since it seems like he wants town to convince him to move away, I can see it coming from open-minded town as well. At the point where he cast his vote, town was in a state of slight confusion where no wagon was really set in stone. It would be easy for scum to lurk and see what direction the town goes in, but MSG decisively steps in and casts his vote on a player we now know is scum.

MSG, you around?

yep. what are your thoughts?

He asks for thoughts from a player he suspects - this matches up with his later claim that he asks questions to people to determine what their affiliation is based on their reads.

F16, have a look at CDB's post 445 and at fferylt's voting pattern and see if it makes you scratch your chin

Wonders why other people can't see the same thing about ffery that he can. Again, very townish. Consider the other possibility: scum motivation. From a scum POV, the point of such a question is to fling shit at the wall to see if it sticks. But what is the motivation to do that when nobody seems to suspect ffery and such a push isn't likely to go anywhere?

My current view on players, most to least townish:

Townish

LnGrrrR
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
* based on contributions in thread

Uncertain, leaning town

fferyllt
* feeling happier with her now but still wary of scum ffery's ability to weave a web of deceit, from bitter experience
Amrun
* D1 posts looked townish, but she started out with votes on 3 town players (cdb, squilly & oriole i.e. me,) then managed to call out all 3 players who then outed as town specials, i.e. Jason, Stubbs and LnnGrrR.
Toomai
* Big effort post with the graph doesn't look like the work of scum, but who knows?
StubbsKVM
* Mostly based on the JOAT claim
Syryana
* largely based on fferylt's meta.

Uncertain, leaning scum

penguin_alien
RachMarie

Scummy

JasonWazza
* Town or scum he is playing a terrible game. Defensive, unhelpful, not asking questions, refusing to answer questions and not offering any credible explanation why.

He provides his reads list. Ffery's case on Penguin changes her to a townread. This matches up with what he claims is town-ffery "activist." Once she started playing like what he expects, he switches his read, but the inherent paranoia is still obvious. The change in read is reflected by his readslist where since he now believes ffery as town, he also believes Syr to be town. He puts Penguin in as scum based on ffery's read.

Hey fferylt. How come you didn't get a vote down for the second day in a row?

This is a hint that he had re-evaluated the day thread during the night phase and has renewed suspicion. It makes sense too since his belief of ffery playing to her town-meta ("activist") was only present in one post and a re-evaluation of the entire day would likely re-ignite lingering suspicions.

I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.

Town

Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza

Neutral

penguin_alien

Scum

Nachomamma8
fferylt

VOTE: fferylt

The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g. newbie 1415, Newbie 1389.)

Nachomamma8 is based on reading Syryana's interactions with fferylt and the way he was protecting StubbsKVM on d1. Start from post 193, where he was white-knighting fferylt (strongly) and StubbsKVM (weakly.) As the net starts to close on Stubbs Syr and ffery put votes down on Stubbs (post 207, post 208,) but after Stubbs claims (post 257) Syryana vigorously opposes any effort to restart the d1 bandwagon (post 376, post 437, post 443.)

I had LnGrrrR as probable town but the flip has resolved that one.

He provides links to ffery's other MS games, and says what he finds different in the town and scum games. This comparison and claim of ffery's meta matching her scum one reads very genuine and I don't buy that it is fake. Considering his buildup of suspicion, excessive focus on the same player, paranoia because she is good as scum all adds up to MSG being extra wary of ffery, reading her games, and keeping an eye to see if he could spot her being scum. The paranoia is real because it is sustained throughout the duration of the game, it supports his actions (reading her other games), asking people how she plays on MS, and peaks and falls at the right moments. (When ffery posts a case for instance, the suspicion falls).

when I did a readback, most of the posts drawing attention to penguin_alien were made by fferylt - the low-hanging fruit stuff. but to me it looked more like it was fferylt trying to frame up the low-hanging fruit town player.

I was having the same though about p_a not looking like scum because she had no apparent team mates. Also I could see how she would read my posts as scum asking lots of questions to try to look busy, if she was a lonely townie with no information.

I am probably death-tunnelling now so will probably back off for a while

This posts backs up why he didn't jump on the PA bandwagon with me. It legitimizes his paranoia of ffery and wariness to joining a wagon that she is pushing.

All of this adds up to MSG being really obvious fucking town. His thought process is clear. His progression of reads make sense. I would really like to hear why anyone else thinks otherwise.

____________

Right now, I have Amrun, Rach and Jason as strong townreads. If I can get at least 3 more strong townreads, I really think we can win this game very quickly. I think MSG is definitely town.

[Nachomamma8]

Please note if that is the case with ffery here or you are actually very sure that she is town.

I am actually very sure that she is town. She did fool the hell out of me once so I'm probably going to wait until we have some in thread interaction to step it up to the ride-or-die level, but she's pretty town right now and I'm not just trying to link up.

Based on your defense of ffery and hers of Syr, and Syr's of ffery, I am seeing both of you as a package deal. I can't see one of you being scum and one town unless you are badly fooling someone you are closely familiar with.

This is fine.

Nacho thinks I'm scum for hedging in early game. Mm-hm. I'd like to think we've played enough games at this point that he'd expect that kind of hesitancy out of me as any alignment.

Hesitancy, sure. But usually when you're hesitating, you make your thought process very clear and the transition makes sense; how you went from Jason/Squilly/LnGrrrR suspects to voting Stubbs to leaving stubbs didn't really make sense.

RachMarie and MSG are town.

What sold you on MSG town?

my unease with Nacho's read of me

Why else do you think I'm scum?

Reading his game with Nacho in more detail, it seems like it only takes 10 minutes or so to do the graph ("not counting the time to adjust reads for each post" - I wonder how long this takes).

It bothers me that he didn't explain that the graph didn't take him that long after he posted it. While effort=town wasn't as explicit this time, it was still there, but he sort of just ignored the townread you got on him from it.

[Nachomamma8]

Amrun, Nacho, I want your opinion on this and if you disagree, I would like to know your reasoning.

I'm doing some rereading as we speak.

[fferyllt]

The fooled once or twice goes both ways. It's been a whlie since I've had a really strong town read on you early in a game.

I miss the good old days.

[fferyllt]

F16, the thing that makes me feel MSG is town comes down to his paranoia about me. It's what he's reacting to in my posts, and why he reacts. His coming into the thread today with a theory about my not hammering was so freaking town. Before that, it was 500 where he expresses concern about my voting pattern. Unless he's meta'd me here, then he has no idea how majority lynch has impacted my voting behaviors. It's exactly the sort of thing that should catch the attention of someone who has seen me play in plurality lynch games, because that's the driver for playing a more tentative game here.

In the night phase, I was mostly looking for Stubbs partners, and there are some Stubbs posts that have weak links to oriole. MSG's play simply doesn't support that sort of association, though. Especially his play related to me.

Being the target of fake paranoia feels really different from the real deal. MSG's behaviors feel genuine and feel town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, I agree completely both on the fact that his paranoia is genuine and that there are some Stubbs links. His vote on Stubbs followed by the "I remain to be convinced otherwise" is the only thing that is undermining my townread but it seems to be small enough to be insignificant.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, can you provide an updated graph and explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail.

I'm not entirely sure what you want by "explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail". The basic gist is that as I read I assign each post a series of numbers based on how much my reads for each player have changed due to that post.

If you have questions about specific raises and drops, you can point them out.

Well, I pretty much want everything explained since the graph is basically a list of reads at each point in the game with no explanations. Perhaps periodic explanations would help.

Some specific things I would like to know:

1) How is Amrun in negative numbers? You have her as slightly below zero. Stubbs scumflip doesn't seem to have changed anything.

2) What is your reasoning for Penguin progressively becoming scummier and scummier after 570 or so until the end of your graph? I am interested in hearing your reasoning for that.

3) Pretty much everyone else seems close to null leaning slightly townish or scummy. You don't seem to be analyzing behavior much at all. You have Jason and me as town for our claims and most others as null. Can you elaborate on your thoughts about all those players in some detail explaining why you have those reads? I want to see more of your own thought process than just an up or down on a graph.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

My third question seemed redundant. What I wanted was your reads on other players in english.