MSG Read: TOWN
I re-evaluated MSG based on Amrun reading him as scum and came to the same conclusion as before: that MSG is town.
I haven't read the link because of the privacy issues ffery mentioned so I don't have any idea of MSG's metagame. However, based on MSG's and ffery's opinions of each other's skills, it is quite obvious that MSG thinks fferyllt is a good scum player which would make him likely very paranoid if he is town. If he is scum and ffery town, it may be possible that he could fake paranoia but in this case, I find the paranoia to be very genuine and I read MSG as
strongly
town for that reason. Amrun, Nacho, I want your opinion on this and if you disagree, I would like to know your reasoning.
In post 321, MSG wrote:not having played here before, I don't know if it's common to have 1 or more jack-of-all-trades roles but it's not what I'm used to. if I had to choose I would say the claimed role of Filch is a better fit for the character flavour. "1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop" doesn't reconcile that well with the character of Colin Creevey
He opens with suspicion of Stubbs despite there being no reason to FOS Stubbs over Jason. He could be distancing so this isn't such a strong point but it is one more point in his favor.
In post 329, MSG wrote:Ok. I didn't say it was surprising but I don't yet see it.
What do you think of fferylt?
CDB explains to him what the FOS on LngrrrR was about but he sidesteps that in order to turn discussion toward fferyllt. This is consistent with his paranoia and his later posts where he reveals all of the suspicion. It is obvious at this point that he is suspicious of ffery but is holding back.
The scum motivation could be to make ffery look suspicious or achieve a mislynch. However, in
330, CDB tells him that he is not particularly worried about her. At this point, it makes much more sense for scum to find better targets. But you can see that the suspicion is genuine based on his followup where he says what is on his mind.
In post 331, MSG wrote:I'm keeping my powder dry until I work out the players a but more. Fferylt is the only player I do know and I noticed that her early posts were quite tentative. Like post 81. Town fferylt is very activist in my experience, whereas as scum she can take a bit to find her feet.
JasonWazza looks the most objectively scummy though, based on (what I saw as) his evasive responses.
He explains what is on his mind and his suspicions of the player that he knows well while hesitating to read the other players. He points out what concerns he has and offers his opinions on ffery's meta. This makes perfect sense from a town POV who is cautious of a player who he has played with before.
In post 381, MSG wrote:Sorry, was busy yesterday and did not get on.
Also not comfortable with cutting out 2 questionable outs under vote pressure when there's only 13 in the game.
But it's day 1, and we need to do something.
VOTE: marquis
still don't much like JW's play and have my doubts about ffery and syry.
He mentions his lingering doubts about ffery while moving onto the more obviously scummy players at the time. He also questions the read on Syryana based on ffery defending him.
In post 433, MSG wrote:well I'm conflicted. 3 claimed town power roles is not credible, but in order to sort them out:
JasonWazza: Argus Filch
Not a likeable character, but always acted to protect Hogwarts, but sometimes in misguided ways, and the role powers fit. Might make sense as a town traitor.
StubbsKVM: Colin Creevey
An important character in this novel but the role powers "I have a 1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop at my disposal" - don't fit, and no further explanation was provided.
LnnGrrrR: nearly Headless Nick
The alignment and role powers look like a good fit to the story.
On that basis:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: StubbsKVM
I remain to be convinced otherwise.
Makes the right choice. While I don't like the last statement since it seems like he wants town to convince him to move away, I can see it coming from open-minded town as well. At the point where he cast his vote, town was in a state of slight confusion where no wagon was really set in stone. It would be easy for scum to lurk and see what direction the town goes in, but MSG decisively steps in and casts his vote on a player we now know is scum.
He asks for thoughts from a player he suspects - this matches up with his later claim that he asks questions to people to determine what their affiliation is based on their reads.
In post 500, MSG wrote:F16, have a look at CDB's
post 445 and at fferylt's voting pattern and see if it makes you scratch your chin
Wonders why other people can't see the same thing about ffery that he can. Again, very townish. Consider the other possibility: scum motivation. From a scum POV, the point of such a question is to fling shit at the wall to see if it sticks. But what is the motivation to do that when nobody seems to suspect ffery and such a push isn't likely to go anywhere?
In post 565, MSG wrote:My current view on players, most to least townish:
Townish
LnGrrrR
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
* based on contributions in thread
Uncertain, leaning town
fferyllt
* feeling happier with her now but still wary of scum ffery's ability to weave a web of deceit, from bitter experience
Amrun
* D1 posts looked townish, but she started out with votes on 3 town players (cdb, squilly & oriole i.e. me,) then managed to call out all 3 players who then outed as town specials, i.e. Jason, Stubbs and LnnGrrR.
Toomai
* Big effort post with the graph doesn't look like the work of scum, but who knows?
StubbsKVM
* Mostly based on the JOAT claim
Syryana
* largely based on fferylt's meta.
Uncertain, leaning scum
penguin_alien
RachMarie
Scummy
JasonWazza
* Town or scum he is playing a terrible game. Defensive, unhelpful, not asking questions, refusing to answer questions and not offering any credible explanation why.
He provides his reads list. Ffery's case on Penguin changes her to a townread. This matches up with what he claims is town-ffery "activist." Once she started playing like what he expects, he switches his read, but the inherent paranoia is still obvious. The change in read is reflected by his readslist where since he now believes ffery as town, he also believes Syr to be town. He puts Penguin in as scum based on ffery's read.
In post 651, MSG wrote:Hey fferylt. How come you didn't get a vote down for the second day in a row?
This is a hint that he had re-evaluated the day thread during the night phase and has renewed suspicion. It makes sense too since his belief of ffery playing to her town-meta ("activist") was only present in one post and a re-evaluation of the entire day would likely re-ignite lingering suspicions.
In post 658, MSG wrote:
I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.
Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza
penguin_alien
Nachomamma8
fferylt
VOTE: fferylt
The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (
newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g.
newbie 1415,
Newbie 1389.)
Nachomamma8 is based on reading Syryana's interactions with fferylt and the way he was protecting StubbsKVM on d1. Start from
post 193, where he was white-knighting fferylt (strongly) and StubbsKVM (weakly.) As the net starts to close on Stubbs Syr and ffery put votes down on Stubbs (
post 207,
post 208,) but after Stubbs claims (
post 257) Syryana vigorously opposes any effort to restart the d1 bandwagon (
post 376,
post 437,
post 443.)
I had LnGrrrR as probable town but the flip has resolved that one.
He provides links to ffery's other MS games, and says what he finds different in the town and scum games. This comparison and claim of ffery's meta matching her scum one reads very genuine and I don't buy that it is fake. Considering his buildup of suspicion, excessive focus on the same player, paranoia because she is good as scum all adds up to MSG being extra wary of ffery, reading her games, and keeping an eye to see if he could spot her being scum. The paranoia is real because it is sustained throughout the duration of the game, it supports his actions (reading her other games), asking people how she plays on MS, and peaks and falls at the right moments. (When ffery posts a case for instance, the suspicion falls).
In post 661, MSG wrote:when I did a readback, most of the posts drawing attention to penguin_alien were made by fferylt - the low-hanging fruit stuff. but to me it looked more like it was fferylt trying to frame up the low-hanging fruit town player.
I was having the same though about p_a not looking like scum because she had no apparent team mates. Also I could see how she would read my posts as scum asking lots of questions to try to look busy, if she was a lonely townie with no information.
I am probably death-tunnelling now so will probably back off for a while
This posts backs up why he didn't jump on the PA bandwagon with me. It legitimizes his paranoia of ffery and wariness to joining a wagon that she is pushing.
All of this adds up to MSG being really obvious fucking town. His thought process is clear. His progression of reads make sense. I would really like to hear why anyone else thinks otherwise.
____________
Right now, I have Amrun, Rach and Jason as strong townreads. If I can get at least 3 more strong townreads, I really think we can win this game very quickly. I think MSG is definitely town.