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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Tue May 15, 2007 6:02 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

Tenative deadline for Sat. May 26th 8 PM PST


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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2007 4:59 am

Post by HackerHuck »

Alright, I don't know why it took so long for me to realise this, but it just came to me.

one scum down, four players left, two killing roles, one claimed cop (cdb) and one claimed innocent (coron). I know I'm innocent, so if everyone is to be believed, that leaves Coron as a vig and Twito as scum.

What does that mean for the balance?

Scum:
MasterChief
Twito

Town (as claimed since none confirmed in death):
Cop
Doc
Vig
Artist?
6 Vanilla-ish

That sure doesn't seem balanced to me; however, if we've got three scum in total, that's two scum and two town alive. The two scum would have put their votes down early to get the lynch and it would be a loss for the town.

I guess that leaves me thinking there's likely just one scum and one SK plus two town. At any rate, I figure that even a random guess would give me a 2:1 chance of hitting scum. Not bad odds in my opinion.
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2007 6:46 am

Post by Twito »

ChannelDelibird - Has claimed Cop/Vig.
If we believe his claim, innocent investigations on Coron and HackerHuck. Possibly naive as cop, that or we have a godfather. Has also failed once as Vig.
Not sure if I believe his claim.

Coron - Struck me scummy before but based on CDb's investigation I cleared him. Now I don't value those investigations anymore. Most scummy of the group read-based. Possible godfather.

Hackerhuck - Read-based the most protown to me.

I'm leaning towards either CDb or Coron being scum. Or even both.
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[color=blue]We are all innocent townies and the mod is an evil bastard laughing at us lynching eachother![/color]
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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2007 7:24 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Hacker - I claimed Cop/Vig. Check your facts.

You also seem to be ruling out the possiblity of Coron as a Godfather. Not sure why, seeing as I've never said I'm guaranteed sane.

Also, if we had two scum then it would still be game on, because 2 is not a majority with 4 alive.

I think mass claiming is the best option, just so we can sort out what we're (potentially) dealing with. I can also see it being very hard for scum to make up a fake claim in this game (although that might suggest the presence of safe claims).
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2007 8:09 am

Post by HackerHuck »

Alright, that explains why that thought hadn't come to me before.

I understand that it would still be game on with two scum, but why wouldn't they both just pick someone to lynch. With two votes, best case is a tie at deadline and the most recent vote disappears to break the tie. That seems like an easy scum win.

I'm still looking for an explanation of why there aren't many night kills. Night one, Jack claimed to protect me, which likely explains the missing kill that night. CDb claimed to submit a kill on N2, but we had no night kills. That means either two docs or the scum lost their kill through inaction or something else (jack could have blocked scum kill and scum roleblocker targeted CDB?). It is very interesting to note that Jack did not believe he successfully protected anyone on N2.

All of that makes me believe CdB and that also makes me lean more toward Twito or Coron as scum due to their inactivity during much of the game.

Just an FYI, I'm not really in support of claiming now, because my role seems rather unbelievable.
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2007 8:55 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm inclined to agree that at least one of Coron/Twito is nailed on scum on inactivity grounds.

Congratulations on using three different abbrevations of my username in that post, by the way (CDb, CDB, and CdB).
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Sat May 19, 2007 8:52 am

Post by HackerHuck »

OK, let's test this out.

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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Sat May 19, 2007 2:56 pm

Post by Coron »

The heck? Didn't I post a big long post to this game?
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Sat May 19, 2007 2:57 pm

Post by Coron »

I'd like HH to withdraw his vote until I can at least rebuild and present my arguement, right now I'm kind of annoyed that I lost it, so it may be a little bit.
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Sat May 19, 2007 4:47 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

Vote Count:


Coron - 1 - HackerHuck

Sitting idle - 3 - Twito, Coron, Channeldelibird

Day 6, 4 alive, 3 to lynch.

Deadline for Sat. May 26th 8 PM PST
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 4:15 am

Post by HackerHuck »

Coron wrote:I'd like HH to withdraw his vote until I can at least rebuild and present my arguement, right now I'm kind of annoyed that I lost it, so it may be a little bit.
Fair enough, I'll give you until Wednesday.

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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 9:58 am

Post by Coron »

Ok, tell me if I'm wrong anywhere along this line of thinking.
Givens:
1) 2 groups left 1 mafia 1 sk assumed.
2)we've had as many as 2 and as few as 0 deaths each night
3) CDB has claimed responsibility for some of these kills
4) 4 people alive
5) We have 1 dead mafia.
6)we've only had 2 types of kills
7) CDB claims to have a kill posibility tonight
8) both scum groups have a killing ability(sort of my own assumption here)

Since I believe that both scum groups that we are assuming exist have a kill, since we only have 2 types of kills so far and CDB has claimed responsiblity for one type, we are left with two options.
A) one scum group has not killed
B) one scum group is CDB
I'm willing to assume it is B.
Since CDB has a kill ready for tonight, if we lynch someone who is not CDB and he is scum he will win.
Our other kill has been seemingly randomly eratic(appearing only a couple of nights), thus if we don't kill the other person it is possible we will still survive. It may in fact be better for the town to no lynch at this juncture.
It would make sense that the 2 mafia members would have to switch nights killing, thus with one dead the mafia kill would only occur every other night.

If we lynch CDB: We are putting our fate into an unknown quantity, whether or not the other kill will happen tonight.

If we no lynch:

1) Kill by other group
a) cross kill for both we win
b) one kills the other and the other kills a town, one of them wins
c) they both kill town, we lose

2) No kill by other group
a) he kills other one, we lynch him
b) he kills a town, we end up with three, lynching would make us lose, so we have to no lynch and hope for crosskills to kill both of them sooner or later.

As a town we're not in a very good place, we, how I see it have 2 options, either lynch CDB or no lynch, but neither of them really look all that good for the town. If anyone has any potentially useful abilities or alternate plans that would be nice.
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 8:22 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Of course,
all
of the above rests on the incorrect assumption that I am scum. Have you thought about what might be best to do with CDBtown, Coron?
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 4:52 am

Post by Coron »

I find it highly unlikely.
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 5:43 am

Post by HackerHuck »

I find it seemingly unbalanced to have only two scum, no SK, and a pro-town killer. With a lucky guess by the town and vig, the came could well be over on N1.

Regardless of his alignment, there has to be one more killing role.

No lynch is a terrible option. If we no lynch and there are two kills tonight, that means that the town is done for. Our only saving grace would be that we've got a mafia and SK who target each other. If you really think that cdb is scum, then we really don't want a no-lynch.

What's Twito got to say about all of this?
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 5:49 am

Post by Coron »

We really don't want to lynch either HH, that's the thing, think about what happens if we lynch.
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 2:38 am

Post by al_kohaulec »

Vote Count:


Sitting idle
- 4 - Twito, Coron, Channeldelibird, HackerHuck

Day 6, 4 alive, 3 to lynch.

Deadline for Sat. May 26th 8 PM PST



I don't remember if it's in the rules or not, but no votes at deadline will result in a no lynch.
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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2007 4:41 am

Post by Coron »

So we need to come to some sort of decision pretty soon, I'd like to hear from Twito about what he thinks.
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 8:52 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

This is why I hate playing with Twito.

Also, Coron, you didn't factor in the (proven) presence of a doctor in your analysis.
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 4:15 pm

Post by Coron »

It doesn't change anything as far as I can tell.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 6:17 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

option A: CDB is a vig
The only way I see the game balanced is with a three person mafia group, thus Coron and Twito as a scum pair. That makes it easy on me, so long as I don't vote for CDB. If this were the case, I would expect to see Twito and Coron pushing for his lynch. With Twito's unreliable access, a lack of votes might not mean anything.

option B: CDB is a SK
This seems unlikely to me, unless he's lying about the every other night investigative role. Even without a guilty result, as an SK he is going out on a limb with his cop claim. If this is true, then there could just be one more scum and that gives me a 50/50 chance of hitting if I don't go after CDB.

option C: CDB is scum
If this is the case, then I would have to believe Coron that we've got two separate scum groups. Otherwise, CDB has come up with an incredibly strange claim that doesn't make any sense - short of the fact that it's so illogical it makes us doubt it (which is of course WIFOM). This would also leave one more scum out of the last two.


Nothing from any of these scenarios precludes Coron from being scum, and the only thing he has in his favor is an innocent result from CDB, who was right about Zindaras.


CDB - I would like an explanation of this...
Zindaras in post 559 wrote:Concordantly with the earlier talk about inactive Mafiates, I believe I need to say something. Let me put it this way, I know that someone did not send in his choice, or at least not all of his choices, Night 1. To reveal who this is, I will have to claim my role.

Be that as it may, I'd like some talk i.e. discussion about that subject before I, as it were, claim.
ChannelDelibird in post 560 wrote:Zindy - that's interesting. I think it might be worth revealing who it is, as so to speak my role also suggests that that person is scum.
The person in question was Milkman (townie) if that means anything.


Would still like to hear from Twito before deadline.
Mod
how about a prod?
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 6:37 pm

Post by al_kohaulec »

Deadline removed, I have prodded twito some time ago, I will be looking for a replacement, please if you know anybody willing to play send them to me.
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 7:45 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Hacker - that's because I had made a kill attempt in the previous night that had not gone through. With a total of 0 kills during the night it seemed logical to me that scum might have forgotten to send in a kill.
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Post Post #748 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2007 4:53 am

Post by Coron »

If we had 2 mafia alive the game would be over.
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2007 6:03 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Which points towards 1 Mafia + 1 SK. I can't really see there only being 2 scum in this game.
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