Just a quick post here to say that Taly's responses I want to digest more in depth but I'm satisfied enough (combined with his general reads at least not being significantly different than mine) that I'm going to ...
VOTE: Flubber
In post 715, Flubbernugget wrote:MoI, I'm reading from your most recent post that you can't trust the town to get an easy read on the worst later in the game. Can you expand more on why that is?
Um, no. Here's the backstory to why I say scumTheWorst will be obvious to me early Day 2 worst case -
Unless he's an alt or has other alts we've played one game together. Echo Bay Grits (run by xyzzy in fact). I replaced late Day 1 in a game where everyone is a 1-Shot per day Dayvig. My slot had already fired. I had been minimally following along and had already identified theWorst as likely scum. In my replace in I called four scum (there had been I think 2 scum flips and like 20 Town flips at that point) and three of them (Taly, theWorst, Ico) were scum of some flavor. Night 1 both theWorst and Taly's team shot me.
Unlike there we will not have flips to work with until the start of Day 2. By that point I'll have a full day of theWorst posting and flips to parse and am pretty confident if he's scum I'll have a handle by then if I'm still alive. TheWorst is well aware of the this fact. Thus why my death puts him on the short list of people to pursue regardless of where my read was stated on Day 1. Taly's team shot was not driven by him but by a partner so I don't see the linkage being quite as strong there.
In post 722, brassherald wrote:Elbirn's stock definitely goes up in my book this weekend, and he was already pretty good. Taly's down. I still think dramonic is the best lynch, though.
So, I'm going back to dramonic, since it seems no one is working with anyone, might as well set off on my own like everyone seems to be doing.
VOTE: dramonic
out of interest what do you think of dramonic and taly together, dramonic seems to get involved in the dave ending so idk I don't think I'd see that as SvS bus on day 1?
I do agree that they are probably not together on the scum team, but I am not seriously building a scum team guess with associatives right now.
That day 1 gamesolve is a joke that I will brag about forever if I randomly guessed right.
I'll reevaluate my reads once we get some mod confirmed information.
In post 722, brassherald wrote:Elbirn's stock definitely goes up in my book this weekend, and he was already pretty good. Taly's down. I still think dramonic is the best lynch, though.
So, I'm going back to dramonic, since it seems no one is working with anyone, might as well set off on my own like everyone seems to be doing.
VOTE: dramonic
out of interest what do you think of dramonic and taly together, dramonic seems to get involved in the dave ending so idk I don't think I'd see that as SvS bus on day 1?
I do agree that they are probably not together on the scum team, but I am not seriously building a scum team guess with associatives right now.
That day 1 gamesolve is a joke that I will brag about forever if I randomly guessed right.
I'll reevaluate my
scumteam
reads once we get some mod confirmed information.
EBWOP, forgot a word.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:34 am
by HitAlt
In post 716, Taly wrote:Also, I don't get why you're wanting me to 'live another day' when I'm 50%+ likely to be scum to you...?
Even the best of scum "reveal themselves" if they post enough.
So far you have posted enough..!
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:39 am
by HitAlt
In post 708, Elbirn wrote:If you don't have enough information to deduce anyone individual as scum then you can not possibly have enough information to team solve. Your process is literally backwards.
I don't case individuals D1 - I notice scummy actions separate from 90% of their posting, because a good scumplayer can be that ~90% consistent with their tone.
But the more they post, or are poked at, the more they reveal.
My initial honeypot consisted of SkyGrazer (first actual scumread)
AND TWO NULLS WITH SLIGHT SCUMLEANS
, to see what happens.
Daves posting after that fitted scum!daves AtE IMo very well.
Simultaneously TW, Ausuka and Brass all jumped on the wagon, which leads me to think there's a "polarization" between the two "camps".
It's not that far fetched really.
And if Sky had been UNIVERSALLY scumread, well then they would likely be pushed through more easily than this.
In post 708, Elbirn wrote:I'm beginning to feel less like im playing mafia and more like I'm just being pedantic and grumpy at people over theory so I'm gonna rethink my life
It's absolutely normal that people dislike the way I post D1/D2, but when the pieces start to fall to their places and we get a flip or two, those reads suddenly become "obvious" to everyone. And that is not to say I'm always correct, but everyone should be able to see my thought process at the very least.
I know it's my own fault if people dislike my posting, I just hope that people would be more open-minded to my reads even if they dislike the idea on how I got there.
It's still only D1 after all.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:56 am
by dramonic
I've yet to see you explain how you get anywhere. Each post you've made has sounded like "fufufu according to plan!~" to me. You say you don't case iindividuls d1 but your reads are nebulous at best. I got that I'm scum with a lot of people though.
@Brass: town not doing what you want != town not working together
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:10 am
by brassherald
I didn't say town is not doing what I want. Town really is not working together. I don't know why you would think my saying that town is not working together as I'm telling people to do what I want. I'm not some dictator or something looking for everyone to follow me, but everyone seems to be setting their own course (Mine is set for adventure, by the way).
Everyone should set their course for fun now, which means we should stop playing Risk.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:27 am
by dramonic
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:55 am
by Taly
Skygazer wrote:Taly, how did you go from townreading brass to not being able to think of a post you like from him in 688? What were you seeing from him that was town early on that you don't like anymore?
Quite a few of my first-9 reads were superficial, and I felt that
brass
was being pro-town with his questions in 148, 150 and that his votes aligned with his thoughts. People also townread him, so I thought there was valid reasoning aside from that.
As I read through, I saw less and less content oriented to gamesolving from him which became a pretense to my scumread, the quotes I replied to were mainly what made me think he's scum.
Right now, I still don't townread him - but I do look at
brass
and wonder if he's town, because I have TvT'ed him before, and some of his posts I agree with a lot.
In post 714, Flubbernugget wrote:I have to pick apart citiations to fully respond to taly so that is currently on the backburner.
Or you could just give a general reply to my responses and not shelve me for later....
In post 723, profii wrote:I'm likely to vote sky/taly if Flubber wagon doesn't go anywhere. I'll take another look at Dramonic, but I've pretty much been focussed on my Rask'ers thing, Taly has been the only other player to really hit my scum-dar whilst I've stayed there so perhaps Dramonic is worth a read.
Why are you waiting whether or not the wagon goes anywhere?
Also, this is another example of a post where there's little to no justification stated for a scumread on me, yet there it is.
In post 725, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Just a quick post here to say that Taly's responses I want to digest more in depth but I'm satisfied enough (combined with his general reads at least not being significantly different than mine) that I'm going to ...
"scum reveal themselves if they post enough, you have posted enough"
but you don't do anything else about it...
In post 731, brassherald wrote:I didn't say town is not doing what I want. Town really is not working together. I don't know why you would think my saying that town is not working together as I'm telling people to do what I want. I'm not some dictator or something looking for everyone to follow me, but everyone seems to be setting their own course (Mine is set for adventure, by the way).
Everyone should set their course for fun now, which means we should stop playing Risk.
This is a post I agree with
Brass
on
But, can yuo explain your
dramonic
read to me,
Brass
?
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:55 am
by Taly
dramonoc
, are you alive? talk to me
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:08 am
by brassherald
Dramonic seems to be throwing shade without many reads. When dave was here, he just sort of attacked dave, I feel, and it goes back. I don't think there's anything here that can be called gamesolving, and I don't see him doing really anything pro-town.
Again, I'm fine with fluff posts, but when someone is throwing shade and not much else, it does not look good.
He hasn't followed up any of the shade thrown with "This is why I think someone's scum" or "I like that response" so, I don't see any pro-town actions from him.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:16 am
by xyzzy
this while honeypot thing from HitAlt feels like a lot of backpedaling and I'm not a big fan of it
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:18 am
by Inferno390
@Magna: so you’re going to base your entire read on The Worst based on a single previous game where you called him correctly?
Sounds like a 7for7 to me.
Liking Hit less and less here. He’s really starting to feel like he’s trying to force his way into a position of town power, and that strikes me as scummy.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:19 am
by Inferno390
@xyzzy: Wanna pressure Hit?
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am
by xyzzy
Pine
, can I get uuuuhhhhhhhhhh... boneless votecount (also can you update the OP with Taly replacing?)
p-edit: that's a fun way of asking me not to vote for you. I'll join a wagon if one starts tho
, can I get uuuuhhhhhhhhhh... boneless votecount (also can you update the OP with Taly replacing?)
p-edit: that's a fun way of asking me not to vote for you. I'll join a wagon if one starts tho
Working on it right now
Let this serve as notification, I am
slightly
V/LA this week.
As anyone familiar with my GTKAS or game-planning may be aware, I have worked at a summer camp for...Jesus, 18 years now. We're in our intensive week-long staff training. I'm senior staff, but I do the fun program stuff. I have a good deal of free/unstructured time, but a lot of it is devoted to planning activities. Given the pace of the game, I decided not to avail myself of my back-up mod's services (Aristophanes, should it become relevant). I will make a concerted effort to post at least one content-filled Vote Count per day. My schedule should relax on Friday (most of my training responsibilities are midweek) and then settle into a highly scheduled but very regular pattern.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:48 am
by HeWhoSwims
Okay so
Dave's iso doesn't show a lot of clear reads to me. Moreso "I agree" or don't agree if that makes sense. I think the past 2 times I played with town Dave he'd have more solid reads but I'd have to meta dive.
Still dislike the fact that Taly strongtownreads Chick for townreading his slot, or the fact that Taly has to bring up Dave meta. Taly, explain?
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:03 am
by Pine
==> Vote Count 1.5 <==
With 17 votes in play, it's 9 to lynch!
After a long and eventful turn, the game is clearly moving into its final stages. Gambits have been made and broken, and now it's time for the victors to clean up the board. Black adds its measly reinforcements to the board, and openly discusses its options. They don't have the manpower to recover, but they can likely blunt or cripple another player. They've been fighting blue all game, and blue is clearly in position to eliminate the team regardless of what black does, but...they had a deal with red. Black aims its small army northward, and actually manages to fight its way into Central America before running out of steam. They take a card with a tip of the hat towards blue. The blue team, true to form, returns the respectful gesture, and absolutely steamrolls black. Blue takes all of South America and pushes up into the north, finally eliminating the black team. They take the cards from their fallen opponent, and per the rules, are obligated to immediately turn them in...and also the set they were already holding. A veritable flood of blue soldiers suddenly dumps into Central America, and the blue team routs red out of North America, even evicting green from Greenland. They end turn horribly over-extended...but holding three continents. Gray also turns in a cardset, and finally makes a move. They use the bludgeon of their single massive stack to hammer into green's border forces and force their way into Europe, taking the eastern half before retiring. Red spends its turn (and cards) rallying its Asian forces in an unsuccessful bid to retake North America, though they do crack blue's monopoly there. Lastly, the yellow team finally makes its big move on Asia, turning in its card set and sweeping the remaining red and gray forces from the continent, restoring its border forces in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Kamchatka.
[L-9]
Elbirn -
[L-9]
MagnaofIllusion -
[L-9]
Ausuka -
[L-9]
brassherald -
[L-8]
the worst - HeWhoSwims
[L-8]
dramonic - brassherald
[L-8]
HitAlt - Inferno390
[L-7]
Skygazer - HitAlt, Ausuka
[L-8]
Inferno390 - xyzzy
[L-9]
Chickadee -
[L-9]
xyzzy -
[L-9]
HeWhoSwims -
[L-3]
Flubbernugget - Profii, Chickadee, Raskolnikov, the worst, Taly, MagnaofIllusion
[L-8]
Raskolnikov - Andrius
[L-7]
Taly - Flubbernugget, dramonic
[L-9]
Andrius -
[L-9]
Profii -
Nursing their beer (Not voting)
- Skygazer, Elbirn
No one is in prod range, though a few players are close! Get posting.
Dave's iso doesn't show a lot of clear reads to me. Moreso "I agree" or don't agree if that makes sense. I think the past 2 times I played with town Dave he'd have more solid reads but I'd have to meta dive.
Still dislike the fact that Taly strongtownreads Chick for townreading his slot, or the fact that Taly has to bring up Dave meta. Taly, explain?
Please read my recent and full catch-up posts...
my townread explanation on
Chick
was for a reaction, and it was never a strong townread - plus upon my catch-up I don't have a strong opinion of
Chick
at the moment...
...And I didn't bring up
Dave
meta aside from me thinking that his play here is similar to what I've seen town-him in the past. I never read this thread prior to replacing in and I was happy that
Dave
was consistent to what I think town-him is.
I don't know what explanation or thought you're looking for.
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:14 am
by brassherald
@mod- you put that I have 2 votes on there, I don't believe I am a doublevoter.
Fixed. I think I copy/pasted instead of cut/paste. Also corrected MoI's vote.
In post 735, brassherald wrote:Dramonic seems to be throwing shade without many reads. When dave was here, he just sort of attacked dave, I feel, and it goes back. I don't think there's anything here that can be called gamesolving, and I don't see him doing really anything pro-town.
Again, I'm fine with fluff posts, but when someone is throwing shade and not much else, it does not look good.
He hasn't followed up any of the shade thrown with "This is why I think someone's scum" or "I like that response" so, I don't see any pro-town actions from him.
Even ignoring the fact I don't think I'm being shady, saying I don't follow-up on my ~shade~ is just plain false
Wouldn't surprise me at all if {profii, inferno, gustavo} is all-town. Last two have tunnely playstyles but yeah that's NAI. Still suspect skygazer but this is good too.
Also brassherald is town.
And how is
brass
town again?
Why are you so sure
Gustavo/Inferno/profii
? At this point, you haven't really said anything about the
Inferno/Gustavo
1v1, even though it was escalating.
Brass has been kinda obvtown. Also iirc he Creature-level hates playing scum and it doesn't look like he's hating this game.
"wouldn't surprise me" =/= "so sure". Inferno feels genuine and I've played with him before, he plays like this as town. Gustavo is actually a really obvious alt of someone I've played with multiple times and I don't think this is abnormal coming from him- and again he just felt genuine this game. I've already given thoughts on profii I believe.
In post 688, Taly wrote:
Yeah, I completely disagree with this assessment on
Gustavo
and I dislike how
brass
handled this.
-
Gustavo
was stating that the reasons on him weren't really based on pure, constructive game reasons - or ones that he could do little but dismiss. I feel like he was genuine here.
-
Gustavo
took a step further and said that he wasn't going to entertain people having a negative response since it likely wouldn't lead to a help in the game.
-
Brass
misconstrues this as "don't scumread me", even though that's bordering a misrep, it's a very superficial means of looking at his post and it's oriented in making
Gustavo
seem undignified in his thoughts.
Plus, why is it bad for someone to defend themselves?
Why would town want to submit to their lynch? Why would scum want to submit their lynch?
You state beliefs here that a) Gustavo is saying that he's not going to entertain people having a negative response to his posts and b) Gustavo is saying that he will defend himself from attacks. How do you believe both of these things?
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:21 am
by Ausuka
In post 736, xyzzy wrote:this while honeypot thing from HitAlt feels like a lot of backpedaling and I'm not a big fan of it
can you explain this further please? because I'm not seeing it rn
Wouldn't surprise me at all if {profii, inferno, gustavo} is all-town. Last two have tunnely playstyles but yeah that's NAI. Still suspect skygazer but this is good too.
Also brassherald is town.
And how is
brass
town again?
Why are you so sure
Gustavo/Inferno/profii
? At this point, you haven't really said anything about the
Inferno/Gustavo
1v1, even though it was escalating.
Brass has been kinda obvtown. Also iirc he Creature-level hates playing scum and it doesn't look like he's hating this game.
"wouldn't surprise me" =/= "so sure". Inferno feels genuine and I've played with him before, he plays like this as town. Gustavo is actually a really obvious alt of someone I've played with multiple times and I don't think this is abnormal coming from him- and again he just felt genuine this game. I've already given thoughts on profii I believe.
In post 688, Taly wrote:
Yeah, I completely disagree with this assessment on
Gustavo
and I dislike how
brass
handled this.
-
Gustavo
was stating that the reasons on him weren't really based on pure, constructive game reasons - or ones that he could do little but dismiss. I feel like he was genuine here.
-
Gustavo
took a step further and said that he wasn't going to entertain people having a negative response since it likely wouldn't lead to a help in the game.
-
Brass
misconstrues this as "don't scumread me", even though that's bordering a misrep, it's a very superficial means of looking at his post and it's oriented in making
Gustavo
seem undignified in his thoughts.
Plus, why is it bad for someone to defend themselves?
Why would town want to submit to their lynch? Why would scum want to submit their lynch?
You state beliefs here that a) Gustavo is saying that he's not going to entertain people having a negative response to his posts and b) Gustavo is saying that he will defend himself from attacks. How do you believe both of these things?
@Taly: What you are saying about your thoughts on Dave and the tone of previous posts about your thoughts on Dave do not match to me. Would you please expand on your feelings about your slot?
