Mafiascum.net

In post 717, Farkran wrote:I take it as you are now reading Suji vs Amrun as TvT and Hectic as T. Where does this leave Replica?

Also why is chemist up there and Nacho down there? Can you point me to the reasons why those two are in two separate tiers from your POV?

Replica is up there with Hectic as a confident TR, though without the certainty of holding off on the spare + subsequent worry about that. i still feel this way after looking over Replica for scum, though that was a skim.

Chemist is in the townlean category because i have reasons for him to be town that i like. if you search Chemist in my ISO they should be there. when you take his personality into account (i have no meta on him) the easygoing way he conducts himself is in-character, and i can identify with the lack of urgency. he could still be scum who either doesn't experience/hides that self-consciousness/anxiety of being scum, but it's good enough that i'm happy to TR him. there are some posts of his i like i could go look for.

Nacho is where he is because i TRed him early but he hasn't upheld that due to activity. i've been saying i need to actually go over the case, which i'll do now.

no one on this game is overwalling or anything like that, the parsing issues are on my end. i'm actually really happy with the pace and level of posting here.

In post 724, Hectic wrote:HURT: unvote
i may have been wrong about Chara...
but i am a little suspicious...
i'm still hiding from her after we started playing hide and seek and she still hasn't found me...
maybe scum-indicative...?

aha! but i did find you. i knew where you were hiding the whole time, you kept whispering about it.

(...don't tell anyone i forgot we were playing........)

Farkran: Replica has already expressed a strong desire to Spare day 1 due to considering it optimal. so given that... is it really strange to avoid voting to Fight?

I took some time to chill out. I still think this game is basically solved. But I guess it's not really solved unless I have a plurality of people agreeing. Still strikes me as odd that more people don't see how obvious our winroute is rn??? I haven't been in the position of having confident reads to push in a really long time. I'm gonna have to work myself up to going through the trouble.

In post 721, Replica wrote:

In post 718, Amrun wrote: I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.

I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.

the Sujimichi thing prompted me to look through some scumgames to try and find myself claiming i hadn't been scum in a while while playing scum, but i couldn't. i do think i did it as some point.

i don't know if it's a genuine belief in someone never lying about that, or what scum Psyche would gain from that, besides knowing Sujimichi is town and so doubling down on the read naturally.

pedit: i'm interested in your Nacho and Sherlock reads especially. do you have a read on me, Psyche? i know you said i was null earlier.

It's so absurd that people so uneasy about the idea that sujimichi's PT posts are a clear towntell are pushing some of the shoddiest scumreads I've seen in years. Others agree that it's a definite towntell but have their spare votes somewhere else??? Let me highlight a few examples.

You're still null. Just as Amrun's reaction to the Suji revelation made me more suspicious of her, your going out of your way to act like it doesn't dramatically up the slot's odds of being town is also super dubious. But I always try to overweight the possibility that I MIGHT BE CRAZY I GUESS.

Why does the thought even come to mind to Sujimichi for him to say "This is my first time as scum" if it isn't? Why would he even volunteer that information if it were not the case? What is the alternative theory of what's going through his mind to make him write that post?

The theory people are pretending is a serious alternative account of his behavior doesn't even begin to provide answers these questions. He consciously realizes that the sentence could suggest stuff about his other games, and then decides to say it anyway? Are we seriously believing this is about as likely as him getting excited about rolling scum and in the emotion saying something he technically shouldn't?

i don't agree it's a clear towntell. i find locktown reads based on dubious reasons to be dangerous, and i think that goes more so in a game like this one.

but i am reminded that i liked Sherlock's pointing it out.

i had something typed out about this involving the spirit of the game and playing to win, but i think it's best to leave that be until postgame. the point is i believe Sujimichi and don't see why you don't, especially if you locktowned them.

pedit: because it's true if ongoings don't exist. newbie scum comment on their experience.
you say it suggests things about his other games, but what i'm saying is i find it the opposite.

i don't know how productive this is, though. i feel like you do really believe this and that it's considered suggesting status in ongoings, when i feel the opposite, which makes it a meta conversation.

it does make me feel more that your assurance of Sujimichi being locktown is not overblown, and simply NAI.

and this topic makes me strangely uncomfortable the more i try to talk around it. i understand why Sherlock was reluctant to post this.

looked at Nacho again. there's a lot i want to see him respond to, which is unfortunate if he simply isn't here. i remember thinking his reads didn't quite line up with the posting he'd done surrounding those players (Replica read, read on me), and his scumreads were more like leftovers (two lurkers and Sherlock, who i believe was still in full roleplay mode at the time).
but i don't know if a wagon there is productive, though i also don't want to reward lurking.

Farkran is.... ah. i liked the confusion thing but i don't know if that's enough for a TR. i don't agree with any of their reads, at least on Chemist and definitely on Replica.

In post 721, Replica wrote:

In post 718, Amrun wrote: I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.

I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.

I don't think the spare route is worthwhile unless the town has a lot of strong early townreads. This is the only reason I listed or even mentioned a list of several people. I think this is a really important part of my gamestance to underline here: I would normally prefer lynching people for the rest of the game if we didn't already have so many good townreads available before even learning who the IC is.

I don't think scum sherlock volunteers or even seeks out the new info we have on Sujimishi. Why, even if he as scum had some other reason to read Suji's PT and sees the post, I don't think he as scum assesses it as potentially clearing the slot in this game. It's just not a priority scum has, and I think it takes a lot of deliberate attention and task-directed effort to produce the analysis of the PT post that he did. I'm about as confident in my SH read as I am in my Suji read for these public, easy to explain reasons.

The Hectic read isn't as confident. It's just a normal strong town read, which I explained earlier. Given my other reads, I'd prefer to spare someone else. By the time sparing those targets is already passed as an option, we'll either be even more sure he's town or will have to re-evaluate. But my strong townread is not just based on posts already here, but on a strong expectation that we'll get more evidence of his town mindset as the game goes on. I've said earlier - I think I'm a lot better at PoE than finding scum. My Hectic read fits into this strategy.

And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)

I think that the situation where my assessment/strategy gets enough consensus for a Suji spare today is one where at least 3 people in my list end up spared even if I flake out overnight. A ball gets rolling w/ a Sujimichi spare and two clear options for a D2 spare (I imagine one will be killed) - all with the town IC still unknown! - that is hard for me to imagine scum overcoming. They just get too little wiggle room. No opportunities to PR hunt (the absence of lynch wagons that might elicit a PR claim even further this). Just an unstoppable plan with some but a quite low chance of failure.

If you really do agree at least with the that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.

In post 727, Chara wrote:Farkran: Replica has already expressed a strong desire to Spare day 1 due to considering it optimal. so given that... is it really strange to avoid voting to Fight?

Not particularly. But the reason stated is "it is dangerous to cast a fight vote because other people could use it to create a wagon." This is in stark contrast with his profile of an above average self-esteem person, displayed in lines like "i do not have fun as scum because it is too easy", and even more in contrast with "i am strongly convinced my strategy is optimal and my townreads are correct". That's the problem.

Either you are sure of yourself or you aren't, i don't buy that you can be halfway around it like he said. The reason why replica does not want to fight is because he can conveniently place his partner among the spares, and this even fits with his proposed 3/1 strategy (which incidentally is the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME for town if there is mafia among the spared players, with 2 unflipped kills from which we'll get no info at all).

Pedit: ...eh. If there is a target to spare, it's suji now, not hectic. Maybe sherlock. Those suddenly became my highest townreads too, and for good reason. @psyche why the other names on your list, though? I don't buy that you are confident enough on this game without having any scumread.

In post 733, Chara wrote:pedit: because it's true if ongoings don't exist.

so my understanding is that you're suggesting there's a equivalent probability that as scum he put the game so far out of mind that he essentially did have the mental state that would drive a person to say "this is my first scum game here"

i think the opposite is more likely - if sujimishi is having his first pair scumgames simultaneously, then a post like that in a scum PT is going to come from someone with the other PT in mind too. it's too striking an experience not to.

further, it's one thing to say "this sort of sentence is valid if ongoings don't exist" but another to say "this sort of sentence is likely when you're pretending ongoings don't exist" and imo you're casting the two as equivalent. his mental state and the kinds of sentences under said mental state are what's in question here.

Actually i might like psyche more than replica now. However:

@Psyche what do you think of replica? So far you have expressed an opinion on pretty much all slots, some more in-depth, some just a mention, but you literally never talked about replica in your entire ISO (which i admit, is short).

I agree farkran - suji then sherlock then hectic is my preferred order.

As for confidence without scumreads - it's because townreads can occur without looking for scum. I basically haven't figured out how to scumhunt - I'm fundamentally unsure what to look for. I do have a more-or-less cohesive idea of how to townhunt, though. Games happen too slowly/rarely for me to tell confidently whether it's any good or not (and positive feedback on townreads is in general more common than positive feedback on scumreads), but I have high hopes for it.

(Rather than trying to detail it precisely, though, I'd rather focus on producing specific example reads from this game for players here to evaluate - just for the record.)

I think Psyche has a good point here. I mean, I had mentally decided Sherlock is town, regardless of Sujimichi’s alignment.

I’d still rather fight, but my heal vote is misplaced.

HEAL: Sherlock


And I have to admit I like Psyche’s recent postings more and understand him better now.

replica's honestly a blur to me so many of you are just blurs how do people play this damned game

ok lemme try:
i think there's good evidence in his iso of trying, of reaching for and game-advancing reads and ways to convince people of those things. but i give a bit more credence to what i perceive as successes at that - in my experience it's kind of easy as scum to fake trying, after all (you can get through a whole game as scum by performing "unsucessful trying" - it conveys a town motive without needlessly preventing mislynches). i don't see any grand successes that scum only have weak reasons to pursue (and should find difficulty at achieving anyway), so i don't have any strong townread.

but yeah, lean town?

yeesh who does that leave?

Hectic TOWN
JTheophrastus Bartholomew Who?
Asriel Dreemurr Who?
Amrun HmM
Chara hmm
Nachomamma8 moderate town
Billy Pilgrim WHO?
Chemist1422 ???
SherlockHolmes TOWN
alimdia HMM
Pine TOWN

ok i'm unsubtly asking for an updated playerlist

Ok, I'm good with a sherlock heal.

HEAL: Sherlock

also I agree with the sherlock heal

what’s the votecount

was scared for a moment that alimdia had been replaced by someone im townreading that would be a disaster but nope we're good i checked

HURT: alimdiah

Can we choo choo up in this bitch?

if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight

Sorry, broski. I am the greenest of the green this game.