In post 225, 3bounty wrote:Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.
Why would they? Isn't denying town information straight up anti-town, or am I missing some philosophy here?
I am sure there are players out there who can play scum and be anti town, but majority of scum would avoid being anti town.
So it is pretty much just NAI?
No. It is giving me town alignment. I give up on this point. Make of it what you will.
I don't really see where 3b ever explained why InWho's post was town for him, but I'm not sure scum says that his post is a bunch of words and simultaneously town reads it.
I'm not very familiar with, I saw the term mentioned by you, in the brief participation of our common past game.
Cool, nevermind then. I'll read your analysis on Alo in a few minutes, I just want to get through the next major point in my reread first.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:41 am
by LuckyLuciano
In post 305, humaneatingmonkey wrote:I'm gonna lay low and let other people talk for a while. I think I may have overwhelmed some people by posting too much. This way, everyone has the chance for a spotlight. No promises though, I would probably be unable to help myself and respond and react.
This is odd, since he was gone for a few pages.
(I'm looking for a specific point in the game, if you are wondering why I'm skipping forward. Also, if you are actually reading everything I'm posting, you're either dedicated or bored af.)
In post 316, Aloratom wrote:I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.
But I don't get how we get a lot of information if Peach flips as town.
Wagon analysis. Like Humane said, if Peaches flips green, there's a certain probability that at least one mafia is on the wagon now. An early wagon like this with a silent player is an easy one for scum to slide in on unnoticed -- there is built-in reasoning for voting. On Day 2, we would take a look at who was on her wagon, when they joined and under what circumstances they joined. Everyone on the wagon would be under scrutiny. That would narrow down our game solve considerably.
Really don't like this. Where's the "if peaches flips red"?
In post 225, 3bounty wrote:Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.
Can you explain your rationale here more?
I get the notion that scum tends to read the thread more closely, but peaches has been such a non entity it's not like Alo has exactly been punished for skipping a question.
I honestly forgot about peaches until last page
Would scum miss the question? He legit posted 10 mins after the post without answering it. I am not saying it's imossible for scum to do such a thing but less likely.
In post 225, 3bounty wrote:Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.
Why would they? Isn't denying town information straight up anti-town, or am I missing some philosophy here?
I am sure there are players out there who can play scum and be anti town, but majority of scum would avoid being anti town.
So it is pretty much just NAI?
No. It is giving me town alignment. I give up on this point. Make of it what you will.
3b seems pretty insistent on defending Alo simply because he missed a question. Is it really that easy to get a townread from 3b? What about all of the questions I didn't answer? Why does this apply only to Alo? Further, his reasoning for townreading Alo is essentially that scum wouldn't play anti-town. The scum wincon is literally anti-town. 3b's reasoning here can be used to townread open-wolfing. It can be used to townread any scum-motivated action. It's incredibly weak, and doesn't support the strength of the read that I'm gathering from his desire to defend Alo.
In post 263, 3bounty wrote:Hmmmm. Nah sorry can't see it. Alo is probably town. You're correct I played 1994 with him, but I subbed in halfway through day 1, and the game had no day 2 so. Not much content there at all, dont expect me to be an Alo expert, I am just as confused as the rest by some of his posts in here.
Rereading some of InWho22's recent posts, starting to get lamist vibes.
3b admits to being confused by some of Alo's posts. This both should degrade his town read, because he does not understand where Alo is coming from, but also lead him to support my case against Alo, in that I provide reason to believe that the confusion that Alo is causing - which 3b admits he sees as well - is both intentional and scum-motivated. For some reason he blindly holds a townread on Alo. Not only that, but he begins to redirect focus on InWho22 without explaining what he saw that is giving him lamist vibes. It looks more that he's trying to deflect pressure off a scumbuddy than go after InWho22.
In post 239, 3bounty wrote:Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.
At other points in the game he literally says that there's nothing to be read from the Peaches slot, yet here he scumleans her. Why? Because she targeted Alo in her first post.
3b on Peaches
Spoiler:
In post 239, 3bounty wrote:Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.
Those aren't meant to be satisfying in the first place. Who is your top scum read and why?
I meant more you haven't changed votes, so the question is do you still think your vote is where it's most effective?
Struggling to find a decent scum read I will change when I do find one. Do you have any scum reads?
4 posts later and he is keeping his vote where it was in RVS because he doesn't have a good alternative. Not only is he scumlean on Peaches, but he believes we need more activity from her. Both of these are consistent with switching his vote to Peaches, and inconsistent with his actual course of action. Afterwards, he deflects back to Kirari, in the same way he deflects from Alo to InWho22 in a later post.
In post 299, 3bounty wrote:A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.
In post 299, 3bounty wrote:A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.
I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.
I get nothing, she has made two posts to you, that is what I'd label as not enough information.
These are posts I've already gone over in my prior analysis. The entire wagon on Peaches is for activity. 3b himself said we need more activity from Peaches. Why is her operating under the assumption that we are planning to lynch her? Why is he distancing himself from a wagon that isn't even supposed to be pushing for a lynch, and why is he distancing himself from a wagon that he himself is scumlean on? The scum motive would be to distance himself from ALO, WRT my analysis in a prior post that if Alo is red, his partner is not on the wagon and Alo's play indicates as much.
Okay, I'm looking for what happens after this push, given that I know read 3b as town. Who joined in, and why?
* The first three are due to interactions;
* The four in the middle need to be evaluated better (more interactions);
* The latter is probably a good lynch for today;
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:44 am
by LuckyLuciano
In post 345, 3bounty wrote:VOTE: Aloratom last post day 1. Lynch me or Alo, I'm done giving him the benefit of the doubt.
If 3b and Alo are SvS, they are playing this game very wrong.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:46 am
by LuckyLuciano
In post 347, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Anyone spell it out for me why 3bounty is scum? I'm honestly reading him as town here.
From what you say, I can see from your style that you're thinking out loud. What you don't do is follow through — only taking the safest vote on Peach, the inactive player. You said you're struggling to find decent scumreads, but you've really thrown at least 3 scumreads throughout the game: Me, LL, and InWho22.
You went from Alo being town (#225, #263) to scum (#345), for the same thing — ignoring people's question. Either I'm not understanding your process, or you don't have one. I'm betting you don't have one. If you do, I want to be enlightened.
I decided to do some research as to whether he always speaks in a manner that is intentionally obfuscating. After all, he did say that he is communicating the way he is this game deliberately (195). The first thing that popped out when viewing his topics was a mafia PT: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=82227. I decided to look there first, because if there is ever a time you would communicate clearly, it's with your known teammates. He speaks very clearly there. He also speaks very clearly in the game itself: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go. Of note, is post 12 of the mafia PT,
That's fine with me.
The only Intel I have is on geraintm. He's back after a long break. He's from Wales, so his posts are GMT. He doesn't post during weekends. He was scum in a newbie game I just finished. When he talked it was in a confusing manner.
I don't think it was wholly by design. There was a lot hemming and hawing. Talking but not saying anything. I'll be interested to see if he does that as Town. If so, he's a good lynch candidate.
I looked up that newbie game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81784. Mafia won a flawless game. While I think geraintm's communication was clearer in that game than Aloratom's is here, he both found it memorable enough to point out in a later mafia PT, and this game he said his confusing language is deliberate, which is backed up by looking at other games he's played. It looks to me like he is trying to imitate a characteristic of a player who perfect gamed him as scum. I don't know why he would imitate this as town, especially when he said in the mafia PT that if geraintm spoke confusingly he would use it to try and mislynch geraintm. There appears to be plenty of motive to imitate this as scum.
In post 253, LuckyLuciano wrote:The fact that he is both capable of intelligibly interpreting what people say, and communicating eloquently both reinforce my earlier belief that his readings of my statements were deliberately off-base and made in bad faith. More damning that making his own speech more difficult to decipher is choosing to misrepresent what other players say.
In post 254, LuckyLuciano wrote:Actually that unvote should be on Peaches. You know a player has been flying under the radar when you forget they are in the game even after you vote them for activity.
In post 256, LuckyLuciano wrote:I looked at 1994 first, and the way you speak there aligns with the other games of yours I have seen, and does not match the way you speak here. Before I waste my time looking at the other games, why don't we cut to the chase. You are deliberately structuring your sentences differently this game than in your other games.
Why?
In post 259, LuckyLuciano wrote:For the reference of the other players in the game: Posts 108, 112, 113, 149, and 204 all represent areas of the game where I feel that Aloratom's interpretation of what is said is far enough off-base to be beyond any sort of standard deviation that could be derived from any of his games I have looked at up to this point. That is to say, I believe his capacity to correctly interpret statements is proven in his past games. It is very possible for him to misunderstand something here or there, but his misunderstandings have been frequent enough, and egregious enough for me to consider them intentional.
Further, since Aloratom wanted me to look at some of his other games, and I did assuming he would come off as deliberately obfuscating in those as well, yet be town (spoiler: this is still the only game of his I have seen where he acts this way), I have come to realize that 175 is a lie.
Of note: 3b played with Aloratom in that game yet neither called out Aloratom for 175, nor for his strikingly different approach to the game than what was displayed in 1994.
pedit: Aloratom, I'm not going to start arguing with you that you are behaving differently in this game than in your others, when you know that it is true. I asked you why. You chose not to answer, and instead to deny it. Either I'm crazy, or every other player in the game is going to be able to look at any of your other games and see what I see. You can either explain your deliberate change in approach to the game, or you can be lynched. I have reason to believe that the change is scum-motivated, based on the fact that you were perfect gamed as town, and your takeaway from that game, as indicated by the mafia PT of yours I posted, was that one of the scum spoke in a confusing way.
In post 260, LuckyLuciano wrote:I humored you and looked at 1986. You still speak eloquently there, unlike here. You were lynched despite breadcrumbing. Breadcrumbing is not the same as acting in a disorienting manner. It's 2:20am here, I'm going to bed. Hopefully you are lynched before I wake up.
I dislike day one associative analysis, but for the sake of vanity I'm going to say that 3b and HEM make the most sense as partners for Aloratom.
In post 330, LuckyLuciano wrote:Peaches wagon has always been, and still is, a push for activity. 3b randomly coming in and presuming Peaches is today's lynch and publicly abstaining is scummy. Alo trying to pivot the wagon from an activity push (284) to a lynch indirectly by arguing there is value in the lynch (316, 325, 326) is scummy. If you really want people to pressure Peaches for activity, then you don't start justifying the lynch before she meaningfully contributes. If Alo flips red, which he will, then Peaches is green and the other scum is not currently on Peaches wagon. This is true because of Alo's desire to lynch within the wagon when Peaches flips green. Inevitably he would be lynched at some point for being on the wagon as well, but if he gets a second mislynch by pushing people for being on the wagon after he justified it, then it will be 2 town for 1 scum and mafia will only need 1 more mislynch to win.
In post 225, 3bounty wrote:Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.
Can you explain your rationale here more?
I get the notion that scum tends to read the thread more closely, but peaches has been such a non entity it's not like Alo has exactly been punished for skipping a question.
I honestly forgot about peaches until last page
Would scum miss the question? He legit posted 10 mins after the post without answering it. I am not saying it's imossible for scum to do such a thing but less likely.
In post 225, 3bounty wrote:Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.
Why would they? Isn't denying town information straight up anti-town, or am I missing some philosophy here?
I am sure there are players out there who can play scum and be anti town, but majority of scum would avoid being anti town.
So it is pretty much just NAI?
No. It is giving me town alignment. I give up on this point. Make of it what you will.
3b seems pretty insistent on defending Alo simply because he missed a question. Is it really that easy to get a townread from 3b? What about all of the questions I didn't answer? Why does this apply only to Alo? Further, his reasoning for townreading Alo is essentially that scum wouldn't play anti-town. The scum wincon is literally anti-town. 3b's reasoning here can be used to townread open-wolfing. It can be used to townread any scum-motivated action. It's incredibly weak, and doesn't support the strength of the read that I'm gathering from his desire to defend Alo.
In post 263, 3bounty wrote:Hmmmm. Nah sorry can't see it. Alo is probably town. You're correct I played 1994 with him, but I subbed in halfway through day 1, and the game had no day 2 so. Not much content there at all, dont expect me to be an Alo expert, I am just as confused as the rest by some of his posts in here.
Rereading some of InWho22's recent posts, starting to get lamist vibes.
3b admits to being confused by some of Alo's posts. This both should degrade his town read, because he does not understand where Alo is coming from, but also lead him to support my case against Alo, in that I provide reason to believe that the confusion that Alo is causing - which 3b admits he sees as well - is both intentional and scum-motivated. For some reason he blindly holds a townread on Alo. Not only that, but he begins to redirect focus on InWho22 without explaining what he saw that is giving him lamist vibes. It looks more that he's trying to deflect pressure off a scumbuddy than go after InWho22.
In post 239, 3bounty wrote:Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.
At other points in the game he literally says that there's nothing to be read from the Peaches slot, yet here he scumleans her. Why? Because she targeted Alo in her first post.
3b on Peaches
Spoiler:
In post 239, 3bounty wrote:Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.
Those aren't meant to be satisfying in the first place. Who is your top scum read and why?
I meant more you haven't changed votes, so the question is do you still think your vote is where it's most effective?
Struggling to find a decent scum read I will change when I do find one. Do you have any scum reads?
4 posts later and he is keeping his vote where it was in RVS because he doesn't have a good alternative. Not only is he scumlean on Peaches, but he believes we need more activity from her. Both of these are consistent with switching his vote to Peaches, and inconsistent with his actual course of action. Afterwards, he deflects back to Kirari, in the same way he deflects from Alo to InWho22 in a later post.
In post 299, 3bounty wrote:A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.
In post 299, 3bounty wrote:A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.
I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.
I get nothing, she has made two posts to you, that is what I'd label as not enough information.
These are posts I've already gone over in my prior analysis. The entire wagon on Peaches is for activity. 3b himself said we need more activity from Peaches. Why is her operating under the assumption that we are planning to lynch her? Why is he distancing himself from a wagon that isn't even supposed to be pushing for a lynch, and why is he distancing himself from a wagon that he himself is scumlean on? The scum motive would be to distance himself from ALO, WRT my analysis in a prior post that if Alo is red, his partner is not on the wagon and Alo's play indicates as much.
I mean, LL has more reason to vote for 3b here at this point but he votes for Alo for... get this... confusing language.
Not only a strawman, but he simultaneously creates pressure on both 3b and myself while dismissing pressure from Alo.
In post 373, 3bounty wrote:You are the one who has not answered a question that has been repeatedly asked. You're building your own case against yourself. Remember I was the one who town read you for not answering. You are the one who votes for that kind of thing, which again, makes no sense since you are the one doing it in the first place.
Not answering Peaches was done intentionally to see how she reacted to it. I didn't want to spoil that, but your current reaction is more important to me right now.
I've admitted that I didn't answer Peaches's question. You insist that you have answered mine, but I can't find your answer. Can you point me to it?
This feels weird.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:51 am
by LuckyLuciano
Alright, so basically the point I'm making is Alo looks like hella scum, and Monkey looks like either his partner or the worst townie ever.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:51 am
by LuckyLuciano
UNVOTE: Kirari VOTE: Monkey
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:52 am
by LuckyLuciano
I have 216/744 posts. Not quite where I want to be, but we're getting there.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:53 am
by LuckyLuciano
I do think that Kirari sitting around, reading my posts, and watching me give my thoughts without really interrupting me is townie.
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:00 pm
by clidd
In post 742, LuckyLuciano wrote:Alright, so basically the point I'm making is Alo looks like hella scum, and Monkey looks like either his partner or the worst townie ever.
I believe that for the level of inconsistency the order of lynch would be Aloratom>Monkey in your pov.
However, I'm still not convinced that Monkey is scum (we can argue that later). In any case, wouldn't it be more logical to lynch Aloratom first ?
With Alora flipping scum, you have your confirmation about Monkey, haven't you ?
In post 149, Aloratom wrote:
I don't generally look at timestamps unless I need to, and any misinterpretation is why I ask questions. We cleared up the first two, and I think we're clearing this one also. I didn't realize that a night had passed before your vote, only that Humane had asked you about it. But it doesn't look good that you changed your vote just to appease someone else.
In this post, he makes reference to post 135, rebuking the attitude of the exchange of votes, but without really analyzing what could have caused this. I feel that his behavior of commenting in several directions, without engaging deeply in the subject, is an attitude of dispersing attention, which in my opinion, is a
The context is basically Monkey not understanding the wording of post 187, but showing it in a somewhat rude way, causing a negative reaction of ignorance on the part of Aloratom. I believe that
Scum!Aloratom
, in this situation, would have been able to reformulate the phrase that Monkey did not understand, in order not to attract so much attention. His ignorance, however, indicates a nuisance quite similar to when someone is offended, in the sense that perhaps post 188 was interpreted as a "debauchery" of Aloratom's written ability. Which, for me, is compatible with the scenario
Town!Aloratom
interpreting 188 as something offensive and closing the communication channel. If Monkey had not explained in post 200 the reason why he did not understand, it is very likely that the apology in post 203 would not happen. I feel that there was some towny *empathy* after he noticed that Monkey is a foreigner.
Monkey was referring to 187. It may just be me, but I feel that Alo's thoughts are far clearer in that particular post than many of his others. What do you think?
In post 742, LuckyLuciano wrote:Alright, so basically the point I'm making is Alo looks like hella scum, and Monkey looks like either his partner or the worst townie ever.
I believe that for the level of inconsistency the order of lynch would be Aloratom>Monkey in your pov.
However, I'm still not convinced that Monkey is scum (we can argue that later). In any case, wouldn't it be more logical to lynch Aloratom first ?
With Alora flipping scum, you have your confirmation about Monkey, haven't you ?
