Mini 751: Suzumiya Haruhi Mafia (OVER)
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Okay i have a new idea, since this situation seems to be spurring conversation, and would probably lead to some good scumhunting, i don't like the idea of settling with a seraphim lynch. i think we should scumhunt like normal, and not worry about seraphim. If no one seems scummy enough for a lynch by deadline, we can always lynch seraphim then. But i think real scumhunting, and lynching scum here would be best. then tonight, if we have a vig, the vig can shoot seraphim. and if he isn't night killed, we can talk about a possible lynch tomorrow. The only problem with that is that we may not have a vig, and it lets the scum know one way or another real early about the vig.
You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.
The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.
UnFoS, FoS afatchic
The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.
I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester
I mean sure, judging from what I've seen of Tar's games it's unlikely because if he gave a straight jester role to anyone they could just make a claim like Seraphim's (I believe there were other Tar games in which killing a townie yielded information) and win instantly. That said the speed of the wagon, especially in light of the likely unconventional setup was just stupid.
The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion. If we already know who we we're going to lynch the main device for placing pressure on potential scum- voting, loses pretty much all meaning and pretty much means we're just wasting time up until the point we actually do lynch Seraphim.
Looking at Budja's above post:
But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?
I mean sure, judging from what I've seen of Tar's games it's unlikely because if he gave a straight jester role to anyone they could just make a claim like Seraphim's (I believe there were other Tar games in which killing a townie yielded information) and win instantly. That said the speed of the wagon, especially in light of the likely unconventional setup was just stupid.
This argument is pretty rubbish. Quickhammering is very rarely a good idea for scum outside of LYOL. Plus they likely have no idea what information Seraphim's death will yield- it might have terrible consequences for them for all they know. Either way attemping to draw conclusions about malthusis' alignment based on his failure to hammer is just stupid.Budja (72) wrote:I agree, following the crowd still isn't that great. Assuming that Seraphim was telling the truth, the mafia would probably still want a quick-lynch to reduce the information given to the town.
If malthusis was scum, I think he would have just hammered.
The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion. If we already know who we we're going to lynch the main device for placing pressure on potential scum- voting, loses pretty much all meaning and pretty much means we're just wasting time up until the point we actually do lynch Seraphim.
Looking at Budja's above post:
I am pretty perplexed here. In the first part you suggest afatchic is worthy of a vote for changing his mind on lynching Seraphim- saying now that we should go through the normal scum-hunting process.Budja (76) wrote:You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.UnFoS, FoS afatchic
The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.
But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?
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I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester
We basically are saying if Seraphim is a jester, SCREW this, he can win, and then we'll play real mafia. I suppose perhaps given the MS III jesters, we could wait til D2, but still :S.
"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
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DGB, could you explain this to me:
Also, forbiddanlight, could you explain what changed your mind from here:
Hypothetical: We lynch Seraphim, and a townie gets NKed.
If we're looking at 3 scum, we'll be at 8v3 at the start of Day 2. If we mislynch, we'll be at 6v3 at the start of Day 3. Mislynch again, and we're at 4v3 - LYLO. This is a worst case scenario, and in this instance it is (probably) in our advantage to have killed Seraphim early.
If we're looking at 4 scum, we'll be at 6v4 on Day 2. Mislynch, and it's game over. Day 4 never even comes close.
Or, you know, there are other combinations, such as 3 mafia and an SK, which would make things even more complicated.
The point is, lynching town might not be a great idea right now. I'm totally down with killing Seraphim before Day 4, but let's start by looking for scum, yes? Otherwise we'll be two townies down on Day 2 with no info. I don't like the sounds of that at all.
This was your votepost on Seraphim. Was this a typo, or am I missing something? Are you referring to the lynch as a 'treat'? I don't get it.....DGB wrote:OK - I don't like to delay treats.
Also, forbiddanlight, could you explain what changed your mind from here:
...to this:FL wrote: I'm still debating whether I'll join this wagon or not. It will basically deprive us of a lot of D1 information.
... in 5 posts and less than 2 hours? You identified correctly that this move would deprive us of information, but decided to push for the lynch. You say that you were backing up your words with action - if that's the case, then great. However, you did put him at (what you thought was) L-2, which is horribly close to an early lynch. How could all this go through your mind in that time? What was the winning argument?FL wrote:Ta hell with it.
Un FoS, FoS Seraphim
Unvote, Vote Seraphim
Hypothetical: We lynch Seraphim, and a townie gets NKed.
If we're looking at 3 scum, we'll be at 8v3 at the start of Day 2. If we mislynch, we'll be at 6v3 at the start of Day 3. Mislynch again, and we're at 4v3 - LYLO. This is a worst case scenario, and in this instance it is (probably) in our advantage to have killed Seraphim early.
If we're looking at 4 scum, we'll be at 6v4 on Day 2. Mislynch, and it's game over. Day 4 never even comes close.
Or, you know, there are other combinations, such as 3 mafia and an SK, which would make things even more complicated.
The point is, lynching town might not be a great idea right now. I'm totally down with killing Seraphim before Day 4, but let's start by looking for scum, yes? Otherwise we'll be two townies down on Day 2 with no info. I don't like the sounds of that at all.
I find this a perplexing claim because even if you lynch correctly during LYOL, barring weird dynamics you're usually still in LYOL the next day.
And assuming the generic 9-3 mini distribution, if we kill you then lynch one scum then mislynch in any either order days 2 or 3 I believe we will still be in LYOL on day 4.
And assuming the generic 9-3 mini distribution, if we kill you then lynch one scum then mislynch in any either order days 2 or 3 I believe we will still be in LYOL on day 4.
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I considered Tar games in general, and know that sometimes he makes us sacrifice a townie to gain information. Then I considered the fact at that point we were probably not going to lynch anyone else, and the fact of the matter is if I say that I support something, I should support it. Finally, my unFoS was brought on when I realized I did bring him to L-2 with malthy's subsequent L-1, and supposed we might want some discussion, and not give the scum the ability to hammer so easily. It was a bit of a conflicting route, but basically my stance now is Seraphim needs to die before D4, possibly D1 even if obvscum appears, though I'm rethinking even THAT stance at this point, since a scum lynch might disable their powers which I assume they each have. (Tar himself said this was basically like a show off all the shiny new roles he came up with)
... in 5 posts and less than 2 hours? You identified correctly that this move would deprive us of information, but decided to push for the lynch. You say that you were backing up your words with action - if that's the case, then great. However, you did put him at (what you thought was) L-2, which is horribly close to an early lynch. How could all this go through your mind in that time? What was the winning argument?
If we are looking at 4 scum, we definitely have something to compensate with that would prevent that early a lylo. ESPECIALLY if we have to lynch a townie to prevent bad stuff from happening.
If we're looking at 3 scum, we'll be at 8v3 at the start of Day 2. If we mislynch, we'll be at 6v3 at the start of Day 3. Mislynch again, and we're at 4v3 - LYLO. This is a worst case scenario, and in this instance it is (probably) in our advantage to have killed Seraphim early.
If we're looking at 4 scum, we'll be at 6v4 on Day 2. Mislynch, and it's game over. Day 4 never even comes close.
What isn't considered here is that Seraphim might not be precisely townie, or town aligned.
The point is, lynching town might not be a great idea right now. I'm totally down with killing Seraphim before Day 4, but let's start by looking for scum, yes? Otherwise we'll be two townies down on Day 2 with no info. I don't like the sounds of that at all.
"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
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That's not a typo. Seraphim promised us some treat if he was lynched early.Percy wrote:DGB, could you explain this to me:This was your votepost on Seraphim. Was this a typo, or am I missing something? Are you referring to the lynch as a 'treat'? I don't get it.....DGB wrote:OK - I don't like to delay treats.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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I think players that are disputing the Seraphim lynch are afraid to give the town what might be a highly valuable advantage. All these players get 3 scum points from me. Not lynching Seraphim is clearly anti-town.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.forbiddanlight wrote:I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester
We basically are saying if Seraphim is a jester, SCREW this, he can win, and then we'll play real mafia. I suppose perhaps given the MS III jesters, we could wait til D2, but still :S.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
-Fight Club
-Fight Club
vote: seraphim, FoS: seraphim
just in case. I've come to the opinion that regardless of any other circumstances, seraphim will be the lynch for the day. If this makes him win as a jester, congrats to him. Otherwise, we are merely wasting time on debates that would be better served by having night 1 information.Town - 3/5
Mafia - 1/4
Other - 1/1
Mafia - 1/4
Other - 1/1
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Here's the deal, such role speculation is somewhat scummy. To be fair, I can think of 4 characters off the top of my head who could fit that bill. If you just meant wondering if there is a character, not the name, then it's not so bad.
This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.
L-1 already? You dislike discussion? That's more of a scummish stance...vote: seraphim, FoS: seraphim just in case. I've come to the opinion that regardless of any other circumstances, seraphim will be the lynch for the day. If this makes him win as a jester, congrats to him. Otherwise, we are merely wasting time on debates that would be better served by having night 1 information.
Vote roffman
(i.e. Fos)"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
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Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.forbiddanlight wrote:L-1 already? You dislike discussion? That's more of a scummish stance...Vote roffman(i.e. Fos)
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
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Never said I wouldn't support the Seraphim lynch. I merely said I don't want it yet. I like discussion. L-2 is very easy to make L-0. L-1 just makes it easy for scum to end discussion.Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.
"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
-StrangerCoug
TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
That's all I needed. If there is/are character(s) whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS. If there are, then Seraphim's claim and his subsequent lynch make sense.forbiddanlight wrote:Here's the deal, such role speculation is somewhat scummy. To be fair, I can think of 4 characters off the top of my head who could fit that bill. If you just meant wondering if there is a character, not the name, then it's not so bad.
This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.
Was this before or after your bandwagon vote on him?forbiddanlight wrote:Never said I wouldn't support the Seraphim lynch. I merely said I don't want it yet. I like discussion. L-2 is very easy to make L-0. L-1 just makes it easy for scum to end discussion.Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
-Fight Club
-Fight Club
The problem with discussing things now is two fold. Firstly, we waste time. While this is not really a problem, it is annoying. Secondly, by discussing things when everyone knows seraphim is the lynch means people will react differently, i.e., scum won't feel pressure. This means pre-conceived notions and biases will be formed by people. By having these discussions when there is any other potential lynch candidate, or any night information, town gets the huge advantage of actually forcing the reaction from scum.
Town - 3/5
Mafia - 1/4
Other - 1/1
Mafia - 1/4
Other - 1/1
afatchic seems to be changing his stance just to follow popular opinion, scummy? Yes, I think it is a bit.ortolan wrote:I am pretty perplexed here. In the first part you suggest afatchic is worthy of a vote for changing his mind on lynching Seraphim- saying now that we should go through the normal scum-hunting process.Budja (76) wrote:You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.UnFoS, FoS afatchic
The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.
But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?
I thought exactly like this yes, and then decided that it might just be best to lynch Seraphim. Despite what Percy is saying, I don't think the town can truely be swayed away from a Seraphim lynch and I believe that if Seriphim's demise can benefit the town, so be it. We may as well just do it and dispense of all the WIFOM. I'd say my position is similar to roffman's on this from what I have read.ortolan wrote: The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion.
To put my money where my mouth is -
Unvote, Vote afatchic
UnFos, FoS Seraphim.
UnFos, FoS Seraphim.
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""No way, I see. I've been reading too much, I guess. Your favorite type would be much more on the weird side, and Nagato-san just doesn't fit the profile."
"How do you know my favorite type?"
"I just happened to hear that from Kunikida-san. You were in the same class in junior high, right?"
That bastard, nosing around with such crap. That was just Kunikida's misconception. Please ignore."
- "The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya""How do you know my favorite type?"
"I just happened to hear that from Kunikida-san. You were in the same class in junior high, right?"
That bastard, nosing around with such crap. That was just Kunikida's misconception. Please ignore."
Note to players: Your mod is somewhat V/LA. Not severely V/LA, but it is cutting into vote count frequency.
Speaking of V/LA, Panzer's is noted.
Finally, it's a Tar game. Unvotes and UnFoses are required, people. - Tar
Speaking of V/LA, Panzer's is noted.
Finally, it's a Tar game. Unvotes and UnFoses are required, people. - Tar
The Second Vote Count (aka the "And You Still Don't Seem To Understand..." Vote Count)
1) Seraphim (4) - DrippingGoofball, afatchic, forbiddanlight, Panzerjager
2) malthusis (1) - roffman
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (0)
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (1) - ortolan
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (1) - Seraphim
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (1) - Budja
Not Voting (4): malthusis, veerus, Percy, Trumpet of Doom
FoS Count
1) Seraphim (6) - Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, afatchic, malthusis, roffman, Budja
2) malthusis (2) - Percy, Panzerjager
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (1) - veerus
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (0)
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (0)
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (0)
Tarhalindur (1) - ortolan
Not FoSing (2): forbiddanlight, Trumpet of Doom
FoS'es Required to Lynch:
7Current Deadline:
March 10, 2009 at ~6:00 CST (GMT -6)First Mod Deadline Review:
March 3, 2009 at ~6:00 P.M. CST (GMT -6)Lynch count has not been reached. Seraphim is at Lynch -1.
User out of ambit.
Error 404: Sanity Not Found
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"Um..."
Miyokichi said with a trace of nervousness on her elegant face.
"There's someplace I want to go to, is that okay?"
"That's fine."
So we went. If I didn't plan on going, then I would've just broken it off yesterday through the phone. And there was no reason for me to flatly refuse Miyokichi's request.
"Thank you."
- The Indignation of Haruhi Suzumiya ("Editor in Chief? Straight Ahead!")Miyokichi said with a trace of nervousness on her elegant face.
"There's someplace I want to go to, is that okay?"
"That's fine."
So we went. If I didn't plan on going, then I would've just broken it off yesterday through the phone. And there was no reason for me to flatly refuse Miyokichi's request.
"Thank you."
I repeat: UnFoses are required, people. - Tar
The Third Vote Count (aka the "Not So Fast Bucko" Vote Count)
1) Seraphim (4) - DrippingGoofball, afatchic, forbiddanlight, Panzerjager
2) malthusis (1) - roffman
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (0)
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (1) - ortolan
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (1) - Seraphim
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (1) - Budja
Not Voting (4): malthusis, veerus, Percy, Trumpet of Doom
FoS Count
1) Seraphim (6) - Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, afatchic, malthusis, roffman, Budja
2) malthusis (2) - Percy, Panzerjager
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (1) - veerus
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (0)
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (0)
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (0)
Tarhalindur (1) - ortolan
Not FoSing (2): forbiddanlight, Trumpet of Doom
FoS'es Required to Lynch:
7Current Deadline:
March 10, 2009 at ~6:00 CST (GMT -6)First Mod Deadline Review:
March 3, 2009 at ~6:00 P.M. CST (GMT -6)Lynch count has not been reached. Seraphim is at Lynch -1.
User out of ambit.
Error 404: Sanity Not Found
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