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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:29 am

Post by joost »

I'm not familiar with the show and the only character I know is my role.
Gemelli wrote:
FoS: Kinetic
and
FoS: joost
. IMHO information that may indicate which players hold pro-town power roles is ABSOLUTELY more beneficial to scum than to the town. There is absolutely no good reason to fish for roles -- or even role names -- this early in the game.

I agree with destructor and pulsewidth where Tar is concerned ... there's no reason for us to accept his claim as true OR false for the moment. It is what it is. Until we have further content to work with, I'd prefer to spend our collective energy talking about other players for the time being.
We know Tar has a power role and the scum know what side he is on (assuming there's only one scum group). It this time it seems to me that it is more beneficial to the town to give information that might prove Tar's allignment (or at least make it easier to believe it). I don't see how a name would give scum more information than they already have.

I agree that there's no reason to assume the claim is true or false but seeing as Tar is the only confirmed power role (either what he said or he's scum) I think that it will benefit the town to find out his alignment as soon as possible, so that we can either lynch Tar or move on to talk about others.


Unvote
as there's no reason to keep it on Bubka at the moment.
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:04 am

Post by ooba »

joost wrote:We know Tar has a power role and the scum know what side he is on (assuming there's only one scum group). It this time it seems to me that it is more beneficial to the town to give information that might prove Tar's allignment (or at least make it easier to believe it). I don't see how a name would give scum more information than they already have.

I agree that there's no reason to assume the claim is true or false but seeing as Tar is the only confirmed power role (either what he said or he's scum) I think that it will benefit the town to find out his alignment as soon as possible, so that we can either lynch Tar or move on to talk about others
First of all if tar was scum and had this role , he would just kept silent and not claimed. Therefore if tar's claim and power role is true , we can assume he's town.

But i cant see how a name would
prove
or even make it easier to believe his claim.He's already stated a familiarity with the show so it wouldn't have been hard to come up with a false name and associated matching role to go along with it for him if he was scum ..
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:13 am

Post by Kinetic »

What if. And I'm only saying a big if.

But what if Tar has a SK type role that isn't immune to investigations? Who is to say that saying he has a bomb role keeps him from getting investigated by town, NKed by scum, and practically alive until end game?

As for Jester, you have outlined some interesting points and I'll admit I only skimmed your wall of text last time. However, since you're an avid fan of the wiki, no doubt you've read https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Name_Claim, and I honestly think that in this set up it
might
be possible to break open this game with a quick name claim.

I'll admit, I'm not 100% positive on this, and I pretty much
know
I'll be lynched if this goes wrong, but look at it this way:

We know can guess at least 6 roles in this game:

John Sheppard
Doctor Elizabeth Weir
Aiden Ford or Ronon Dex (I doubt both, but maybe)
Doctor Rodney McKay
Teyla Emmagan
Doctor Carson Beckett

That is half the town right there.

If we assume there is a Pro-Town Killing role, EVEN if we out all of the power roles, if we just focus on killing the players that are not the above six, we could win this game in three days. Less if we use scum hunting abilities to aid us in choosing our targets.

And even if there isn't a protown killing role, we have just narrowed our search to six people day one. If there is a cop/doc team (which I would bet my house on), we could get at least 2 investigations off
Even if the scum know there is a doctor and who it is
.

Personally, the more I think about it, the more I see that the benefits might far out way the costs. In the other game this may not have been feasible, just because of sheer numbers of players, but I think it might work here and I'll be damned if we don't
at least
seriously consider it. I can understand if in the end we choose not to claim, but a serious subject like this one would give the town a load of useful information either way.

As such, people against the name claim wouldn't be counted scummy in my book just for opposing it, just as people for it wouldn't. But the people who feel it is scummy just to
discuss
it or who refuse to give there opinion are very suspicious in my eyes.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:14 am

Post by joost »

Well I guess you're right and it won't prove anything, I shouldn't have used that word. But my point is, I don't see how it will hurt the town. And of course if uses a false name, and someone else is that character it will reveal him as scum.
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:37 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

My big concern with D1 Mass Claim is the possibility of safe claims.

That said, the benefits of mass claiming *might* outweigh the potential drawbacks. I need to think things over.
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:28 am

Post by joost »

Hmmm... I missed Kinetic's post. It sounds like a good plan, but I need to think or read counter arguments first.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:32 am

Post by spurgistan »

How many characters are there in this show? Like I said, no familiarity with the show, and I'm not quite in favor of a mass claim even if this is false, but if there is a cast of characters that greatly exceeds 12, by claiming names we'd just be giving scum hints to our roles as opposed to guaranteeing our innocence.
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:10 pm

Post by ooba »

Kinetic wrote:We know can guess at least 6 roles in this game:

John Sheppard
Doctor Elizabeth Weir
Aiden Ford or Ronon Dex (I doubt both, but maybe)
Doctor Rodney McKay
Teyla Emmagan
Doctor Carson Beckett

That is half the town right there.
I do not think second guessing the mod is advisable - we cannot really be sure of the roles but i'd agree that atleast most of the roles you've stated should be there in the game. But now you've inadvertently helped scum in one way because in case CDB left out one of these , then you've just given them an safe claim. But this is possible only if scum post in the end after everyone else has posted to see who has been missed out. To counter that , i'd suggest some sort of simultaneous name claims (if thats possible) to avoid this ..
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:07 pm

Post by Zephyr09 »

I'm only at the computer one or two days apart at a time thanks to marching band (please stop prodding me! I'm trying, I'm just really busy!). Sorry to those who wanted more explanation from me, I haven't been able to get to a computer lately. I've read up and I doubt that name claims will work very well in the town's favor. If they were simultaneous, it WOULD work...but there's no way we could get that to happen. A tactic that might have worked before Kinetic posted all those names giving the scum a safe way to claim would be for someone to give a townie claim with a false name. If scum tries to repeat aforementioned claim, we've got him red-handed. Unfortunately, that's not going to work anymore thanks to Kinetic's handiwork. I've never watched the show before, so I don't have any prior schema as to the role names and what might be safe or what might not be.

All I've got is an
FoS: Kinetic
for pushing so hard to get a mass name claim out there. Name claim might as well be role claim as far as this game is concerned.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:19 pm

Post by Zephyr09 »

EBWOP: Wow, way to go Zephyr. You totally posted the prod apology in the wrong thread. Way to go.
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:36 pm

Post by Gemelli »

Let the record show that I still think that any kind of massclaim -- role or name -- is a bad idea at this time. On D1, the scum are most interested in clues as to who might be holding the town's power roles. What better clues could they ask for than the names of our SG:A characters?

As noted in the "Name Claim" Wiki article that Kinetic posted, it is recommended that mods provide a list of possible safe claims to scum to ensure that a mass name claim doesn't break the game open. Our mod has (I believe) been doing this a while, and I think it's reasonable to assume that he would have taken that precaution. So really, it's a dicey proposition for the town at best, and a near-definite advantage for the scum.

Given what's been posted about SG:A characters so far, I think it's safe to assume that the town has at least one doctor and at least one cop. That's all the info that the town really needs at this point. I don't see any need to start a massclaim, whose only end result would most likely be counterclaims that would put the town's power roles at risk.

Unvote; vote Kinetic
for advocating an approach that I think offers clear benefit to the scum, and limited benefits + high risks for the town.

Side note: if we ever DID agree to a consensus massclaim of any type, I can actually think of one way to achieve simultaneous claiming:

(1) Agree on a common, non-trivial cipher that everyone can use to encipher/decipher text -- ideally a cipher with an online applet for encrypting and decrypting
(2) Everyone picks a secret cipher keyword, encodes their role/name, and posts the ciphertext only
(3) After all ciphertexts are posted, players take turns posting the keyword they chose

I can see this working as long as the cipher is a relatively strong one, and as long as buffer characters would be added to roles/names so that the ciphertexts would all be the same length. You could put some sort of limit on acceptable keywords to stop ciphergeeks from gaming the system.

Again, I don't recommend that we do this on D1. At all :) I'm just thinking out loud at how to handle a massclaim in a way that doesn't give an advantage to scum that happen to be late in the reveal sequence.

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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:24 pm

Post by Kinetic »

There are more ways than that to provide a good way to mass claim. For one, we could do random order. Since the scum don't know all of the claims before they go, there is a high likelihood the scum would stay far AWAY from those 6 because of the HIGH likelihood of them being there already. I cannot imagine scum choosing one of the six if there are people going after them with a good chance of being those characters.

Then there is the bandwagon to claim. Basically we vote who we think should claim first, second, third, etc etc, forcing the scummiest players to claim first. If we force the players who might be more likely to be scum to claim first then we can pretty much be sure that unless they claim one of those 6 then they are scum trying to hide. One of those six being claimed sooner, rather than later, increases the chance
greatly
that if they are scum trying to hide in the role that someone else will counter claim them and have it. If they aren't counter claimed, it is even a bigger deal since a scum making that gambit this early in the game would be... foolhardy.

Then there is the popcorn-type claim. The town chooses someone to claim first, then that person says who should claim next. This has some other added benefits that I'm not going to reveal about helping find scum.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:22 pm

Post by joost »

Kinetic wrote:There are more ways than that to provide a good way to mass claim. For one, we could do random order. Since the scum don't know all of the claims before they go, there is a high likelihood the scum would stay far AWAY from those 6 because of the HIGH likelihood of them being there already. I cannot imagine scum choosing one of the six if there are people going after them with a good chance of being those characters.

Then there is the bandwagon to claim. Basically we vote who we think should claim first, second, third, etc etc, forcing the scummiest players to claim first. If we force the players who might be more likely to be scum to claim first then we can pretty much be sure that unless they claim one of those 6 then they are scum trying to hide. One of those six being claimed sooner, rather than later, increases the chance
greatly
that if they are scum trying to hide in the role that someone else will counter claim them and have it. If they aren't counter claimed, it is even a bigger deal since a scum making that gambit this early in the game would be... foolhardy.
The problem with this is that we probably don't have 6 scum, which means that some of us have a name that is not in that list. By using this strategy we put those townies in danger. If a townie claims a name not on the list he will be highly suspected for no other reason than that his name was on one of the 6.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:37 pm

Post by Kinetic »

True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 2:22 am

Post by pulsewidth »

I agree that this mass-claim idea is simply a bad idea on D1. I really don't see how it would help the town at this point, but it would help scum quite a bit (by muddying the waters or the scum getting a better idea of who has what roles). Right now townies should be focusing on SCUMHUNTING, not pursuing mass-claims.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:16 am

Post by Gemelli »

Kinetic wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.

I can't believe that you are seriously discussing a strategy whose outcome is nearly guaranteed to increase the ratio of scum-to-town in the active player pool. I think I've got my vote in the right place.

Also, I know that there are other ways of handling mass claims. The flaw I've seen in all of those approaches is that they risk giving scum players an advantage if they end up being late in the reveal sequence. The crypto-approach is just a way to eliminate the reveal sequence as a factor. This is off-topic from our current game, though, so I'll post more on the idea in the Discussion forum.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:17 am

Post by ooba »

Kinetic wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
But if we manage to miss some scum who escape into the 6 "regulars" as you mentioned , then it would easily lead to a very bad thing for the town(on top of possibly giving information about the roles for different people).I think its too risky to take a chance on what is not a fool proof plan and may eventually backfire right back on us.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 5:47 am

Post by joost »

Gemelli wrote:
Kinetic wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.

I can't believe that you are seriously discussing a strategy whose outcome is nearly guaranteed to increase the ratio of scum-to-town in the active player pool. I think I've got my vote in the right place.
I think what Kinetic meant is assuming the 6 regulars are town, the other 6 six names will be used by some townies and the scum. So theoretically we could random lynch the six people who claim names of smaller characters and go for an easy win.

This strategy is based on a lot of guessing and assumptions though and I don't think it will work as smoothly reality.
Gemelli wrote:Also, I know that there are other ways of handling mass claims. The flaw I've seen in all of those approaches is that they risk giving scum players an advantage if they end up being late in the reveal sequence. The crypto-approach is just a way to eliminate the reveal sequence as a factor. This is off-topic from our current game, though, so I'll post more on the idea in the Discussion forum.
Ok I know this will probably be moot but if we do mass claim I say we should use this system. Also I think a mass claim should not happen on any other day than D1. Otherwise scum might come up with a better strategy when they talk amongst themselves at night.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:19 am

Post by Kinetic »

Gemelli wrote:That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.
And what do you think Day 1 lynches usually are? No, what this does is allows us to focus on certain players who have a much higher chance of being scum so that we can lynch 2-3 scum quickly, and maybe even win the game.

No one is saying give this list 100% certainty. But it does give us a much better place to start than where we could be.
Gemelli wrote:That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.
What? Umm, no... what we've done is effectively taken away any of the scum's voting power. You think the 6 confirmed townies that a mass claim possibly creates would listen to the unconfirmed townies before their own council?
Gemelli wrote:I can't believe that you are seriously discussing a strategy whose outcome is nearly guaranteed to increase the ratio of scum-to-town in the active player pool. I think I've got my vote in the right place.
And I can't believe you've stop using logic and fallen into using logical fallacies. You're strawmanning my attack and not even understanding what you're saying. Do you think a mass claim is going to auto lynch half the town? That doesn't make any sense.
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:16 am

Post by Gemelli »

Kinetic wrote:
Gemelli wrote:That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.
What? Umm, no... what we've done is effectively taken away any of the scum's voting power. You think the 6 confirmed townies that a mass claim possibly creates would listen to the unconfirmed townies before their own council?
There's so much wrong with this comment that I don't even know where to start.

You previously posted this:
Kinetic wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
I hope we can agree on at least the following:

3 scum in a pool of 12 is 1/4 of the town's voting power.
3 scum in a pool of 6 is 1/2 of the town's voting power.

As far as "You think the 6 confirmed townies that a mass claim possibly creates would listen to the unconfirmed townies before their own council?" goes ... how the hell does this process "confirm" anyone?

Let's assume that all 6 of the players you list are in fact in the game. We then have three townies that hold pro-town secondary roles, and three scum.

Now, you have suggested that the goal of this process is to "identify and vote off the secondary roles." So what is a scum player going to claim? Most likely one of the 6 major "non-automatic" roles.

So what do we get coming out of this process?

A. The mafia know who is likely to hold the actual power roles, based on character names
B. Three of the town's major roles are put into suspicion, since they will have made the same claim as a scum player
C. If there is an SK, all they will have to do is pick off any players who have a double-claimed role
Kinetic wrote:And I can't believe you've stop using logic and fallen into using logical fallacies. You're strawmanning my attack and not even understanding what you're saying.
Your position (correct me if I'm wrong) is that a mass nameclaim is a good play for the town. I am attacking that premise at its root by demonstrating that it is, in fact, a better play for scum. Please look up the definition of the "straw man" fallacy before using that term again. Look up "poisoning the well" while you're at it.
Kinetic wrote:Do you think a mass claim is going to auto lynch half the town? That doesn't make any sense.
Wait.
You
were the one that suggested killing off anyone who doesn't hold one of your "power 6" rolenames:
Kinetic, post 77 wrote:If we assume there is a Pro-Town Killing role, EVEN if we out all of the power roles,
if we just focus on killing the players that are not the above six,
we could win this game in three days.
So which is it? Are you suggesting we kill off half the players in the game, or not?
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:28 am

Post by Gemelli »

joost wrote:Ok I know this will probably be moot but if we do mass claim I say we should use this system.
Sadly, from the most recent posts in the Discussion thread, it looks like the consensus is that the CryptoClaim approach would be unbalanced in favor of the town and should be prohibited. Can't blame a guy for trying, anyway :)
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:43 am

Post by Kinetic »

Gemelli wrote:
Kinetic wrote:
Gemelli wrote:That would only make sense if we were selecting lynchees purely at random, rather than by vote. If the scum have 50% of the voting power in the town, they have practically won.
What? Umm, no... what we've done is effectively taken away any of the scum's voting power. You think the 6 confirmed townies that a mass claim possibly creates would listen to the unconfirmed townies before their own council?
There's so much wrong with this comment that I don't even know where to start.

You previously posted this:
Kinetic wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
I hope we can agree on at least the following:

3 scum in a pool of 12 is 1/4 of the town's voting power.
3 scum in a pool of 6 is 1/2 of the town's voting power.
AT THE END OF MASS CLAIM THERE ARE STILL AT MOST 2 SCUM AND STILL 12 PEOPLE WHO CAN VOTE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WTF ARE YOU SMOKING AND CAN I GET SOME PLEASE!
Gemelli wrote:As far as "You think the 6 confirmed townies that a mass claim possibly creates would listen to the unconfirmed townies before their own council?" goes ... how the hell does this process "confirm" anyone?

Let's assume that all 6 of the players you list are in fact in the game. We then have three townies that hold pro-town secondary roles, and three scum.

Now, you have suggested that the goal of this process is to "identify and vote off the secondary roles." So what is a scum player going to claim? Most likely one of the 6 major "non-automatic" roles.
And that is a bad thing? In that case we are actually in a BETTER position. If scum counter claim we know who the scum are better than if they claim secondary roles. If one of the counter claimers comes up town the other must be scum. If there is a vig or a SK, then the mafia team is going to lose, plain and simple. If there is a SK, then some things change, but honestly it still puts us (and by us, I mean the town) in a good position.
Gemelli wrote:So what do we get coming out of this process?

A. The mafia know who is likely to hold the actual power roles, based on character names
B. Three of the town's major roles are put into suspicion, since they will have made the same claim as a scum player
C. If there is an SK, all they will have to do is pick off any players who have a double-claimed role

Gemelli wrote:
Kinetic wrote:And I can't believe you've stop using logic and fallen into using logical fallacies. You're strawmanning my attack and not even understanding what you're saying.
Your position (correct me if I'm wrong) is that a mass nameclaim is a good play for the town. I am attacking that premise at its root by demonstrating that it is, in fact, a better play for scum. Please look up the definition of the "straw man" fallacy before using that term again. Look up "poisoning the well" while you're at it.
But that isn't what you're doing. What you are doing is addressing points that don't even exist...
Gemelli wrote:
Kinetic wrote:Do you think a mass claim is going to auto lynch half the town? That doesn't make any sense.
Wait.
You
were the one that suggested killing off anyone who doesn't hold one of your "power 6" rolenames:
... ... After mass name claim, 6 people are not going to automatically die. And those 6 people are not automatically not scum... I have no clue WHAT THE FUCK you are talking about.

I am saying that if we have the 6 people I have stated are in this game, and are not counter claimed, there is a VERY GOOD chance they are not scum. Then the remaining OTHER 6 people in the game, there is a VERY GOOD chance at least 3 of them are scum.

Are you saying that after we narrow the six non-main character names there are not going to be any scum in them??
Gemelli wrote:
Kinetic, post 77 wrote:If we assume there is a Pro-Town Killing role, EVEN if we out all of the power roles,
if we just focus on killing the players that are not the above six,
we could win this game in three days.
So which is it? Are you suggesting we kill off half the players in the game, or not?
[/quote]

See: This is straw man. You take two different things and then present conclusions that are not possible.

First: I feel that among the 6 roles that I named there are likely no scum.
Second: Thus anyone who doesn't claim one of those roles will get more of my attention.

You then say: Well none of the people that don't claim one of the six are scum and the ENTIRE SCUM GROUP is hiding among the six main characters.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:42 am

Post by Gemelli »

Kinetic, post 77 (bolding added) wrote:If we assume there is a Pro-Town Killing role, EVEN if we out all of the power roles,
if we just focus on killing the players that are not the above six,
we could win this game in three days.
Kinetic, post 88 wrote:True. However if we have to find 2-3 scum hiding among 6 townies instead of 2-3 scum hiding in 12 townies, our odds of finding scum are basically 50/50 instead of about 25%.
Kinetic, post 96 wrote:AT THE END OF MASS CLAIM THERE ARE STILL AT MOST 2 SCUM AND STILL 12 PEOPLE WHO CAN VOTE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now I think you're just being obtuse on purpose.

In post 77, you outlined your approach. I have highlighted the detail that I find the most trouble with. I have done this in two posts running now.

In case this is still confusing:
I have a very specific problem with the approach you described. You suggested that the town should systematically lynch and/or vig anyone whose name does not fall into the list of names you posted above. I disagree strongly.
Please let me know if you'd like me to rephrase this point in other ways. I have a thesaurus.
Kinetic wrote:WTF ARE YOU SMOKING AND CAN I GET SOME PLEASE!
How's that reading up on "Poisoning the Wells" going?
Kinetic wrote:
Gemelli wrote:So what is a scum player going to claim? Most likely one of the 6 major "non-automatic" roles.
And that is a bad thing? In that case we are actually in a BETTER position. If scum counter claim we know who the scum are better than if they claim secondary roles. If one of the counter claimers comes up town the other must be scum. If there is a vig or a SK, then the mafia team is going to lose, plain and simple. If there is a SK, then some things change, but honestly it still puts us (and by us, I mean the town) in a good position.
The situation isn't nearly as rosy if we have already started killing off people whose names aren't on your list. Which, again, is the part of this whole plan that I think causes problems.
Kinetic wrote:But that isn't what you're doing. What you are doing is addressing points that don't even exist...
No, I am discussing what I see as flaws in your massclaim approach. You don't have to agree with my points, but telling me that those points "don't even exist" is kind of silly.
Kinetic wrote:
Gemelli wrote:Wait.
You
were the one that suggested killing off anyone who doesn't hold one of your "power 6" rolenames:
... ... After mass name claim, 6 people are not going to automatically die. And those 6 people are not automatically not scum... I have no clue WHAT THE FUCK you are talking about.
I am talking about the approach you advocated in the bolded part of post 77 above. The potential result of having 6 people die was spelled out by you in post 88, also quoted above. I honestly don't know how to make this any clearer.
Kinetic wrote:I am saying that if we have the 6 people I have stated are in this game, and are not counter claimed, there is a VERY GOOD chance they are not scum. Then the remaining OTHER 6 people in the game, there is a VERY GOOD chance at least 3 of them are scum.

Are you saying that after we narrow the six non-main character names there are not going to be any scum in them??
No. I am explaining (not assuming) that at least three of the players in the "does not have a role name on Kinetic's list" group will be pro-town. Those players will be faced with a choice: tell the truth and become a target for lynching/vigging (again, your approach from post 77), or LIE about their role to remain in the game. For scum players, it's much simpler: they MUST lie about their roles and claim to be in the Approved 6.

At the end of this process, we have at least 9 players claiming names from your list, more if any of the townies decide to lie to stay in the game. In this process, townies who tell the truth are targetted for death.

I'm not talking about auto-lynch here, so please stop saying that. I'm talking specifically about the approach you laid out in post 77 -- "if we just focus on killing the players that are not the above six, we could win this game in three days." THAT is what I am arguing against. You are tap-dancing around my rebuttal and shifting the details of your approach as you go along -- would we actually be focused on lynching/vigging players whose role names aren't on the list? Or are we just looking at the double-claims and leaving the non-approved names alone?
Kinetic wrote:You then say: Well none of the people that don't claim one of the six are scum and the ENTIRE SCUM GROUP is hiding among the six main characters.
Now THAT is a straw man; I never said any such thing. What I actually said was:
Gemelli wrote:Let's assume that all 6 of the players you list are in fact in the game. We then have three townies that hold pro-town secondary roles, and three scum.

Now, you have suggested that the goal of this process is to "identify and vote off the secondary roles." So what is a scum player going to claim? Most likely one of the 6 major "non-automatic" roles.

So what do we get coming out of this process?

A. The mafia know who is likely to hold the actual power roles, based on character names
B. Three of the town's major roles are put into suspicion, since they will have made the same claim as a scum player
C. If there is an SK, all they will have to do is pick off any players who have a double-claimed role
To sum up: I think that it is very likely that if we follow the process you put forth in post 77, all of the scum will survive the initial "purge non-primary role names" stage, and the only ones who will be killed will be townies who do not wish to lie about their role names. We will have more information to work with, yes, but I don't think that we will necessarily be in a better position than we are starting with.
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:02 am

Post by Kinetic »

Ok, all this quoting and counter quoting is getting monotonous and distracting from the issue, and I also think its getting a little too ad hom (from both of us):

You are naming 3 different possibilities, then confusing my plans of action for each of them and applying the WRONG plan of action to each outcome.

First off: There is absolutely no reason a townie should ever lie about something like this. If a townie lies about their role they are only hurting themselves and the town. Survival is not a prerequisite for winning the game. If a townie has to die in order to win the game, that is a sacrifice every townie should be prepared to make.

Let me explain what I see as possibly happening:

If those 6 names exist AND the scum try and counter claim as one of them:

We have 6 town under the names, 3 scum counterclaiming, and 3 townies claiming non main character power roles.

I believe this is your main concern.

In THIS likelihood we have a relatively strong position. Why? Depending on who the scum counterclaim that role IS SAFE FROM NIGHT KILLS from the mafia team. Why? Because if the scum team kill off the role they are counterclaiming and that person COMES UP TOWN then we KNOW FOR CERTAIN the person counter claiming is scum.

We also know that the three townies claiming main characters are most likely TELLING THE TRUTH and are TOWN. If there are THREE counterclaims and at most there can be THREE SCUM then basic math proves that the three scum are accounted for among the counter claims!

I would not attack the non-main character claimers at this point (like you wrongly claimed I would) because that would not make sense.

----

Second possibility:
Scum claim non-main characters, all 6 of the main characters are accounted for and no one has counter claimed them.

We know that MOST LIKELY the scum are among the 6 non-main characters. Thus if we start lynching from them using normal scum hunting strategies (the same ones you would use if you were searching for scum among 12 people), we have a much greater chance of finding scum.

If we were to use your encoder method (and honestly I don't quite completely understand it, but it seems to me like a good possible plan since I can't see the scum being able to plan against it), we could get an even better case scenario since I cannot imagine scum counter claiming in a name claim on purpose.

-----

Third possibility:
Some scum counter claim, some scum hide among townies.

I find this as the most likely scenario. The reason to do this on day one is so the scum cannot prepare in advance how they will do this. Thus there will be confusion among them on how to proceed.

Depending on how many counter claims and how many non-main character townies we have, we will use a hybrid approach of the above two strategies to root out scum.
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:17 am

Post by Gemelli »

OK, I still disagree with a name massclaim but I'm ready to let the matter drop and see what others have to say on the subject.

One final point: have you considered the possibility that our mod deliberately left some of the main characters out of the game to provide potential safe claims for scum? I think it's a mistake to conclude that any claimed role from your list that isn't counterclaimed is automatically a town role. If we have races that can disguise themselves as humans in the game, what's to stop them from taking on the form of a major character just as easily as a minor one?
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