Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Morning Tweet]

I think it's somewhat safe to assume if we have to spare 4 (5) people and 3 of our most / second most obvtown players are getting killed at night and thus cant be spared, and mafia controls all the way up to 2/5ths of the votes towards the end..

we are probably sparing one mafia best case

And we also introduce the risk of accidentally sparing Chara in the first two days

whereas if we fight and miss, chara dies so it kind of forgives us for one miselim anyway

Mafia *doesn't* want us to fight Chara, right?

[Chara]

is it bad how amused i am by my name being thrown around so much? there is only potential for confusion.

i am very convinced that fighting is the better choice. unfortunately.

[Chara]

now we play mafia!
HURT: lavender

This is town af

pedit: hm. i'll agree.

whichever one of you gives me a better/more convincing/funnier explanation on why you think so gets 5 free TownPoints™ [limited time offer] [batteries not included]

i'm not good at being funny. :<
and upon being called to explain why i thought that... i guess it isn't particularly towny after all.

[Chara]

are you going to keep pretending to be my brother? i only played along last time because the rest of the monsters were so concerned with your opinion.

HURT: Hectic
<3

[Tayl0r Swift]

sparing a couple might be a good idea to give us a pool to shoot in at the end if we fail, right?

[Hectic]

well, i sure as heck don't know the answer to that, and i don't expect you to either. but the funny thing is that we don't NEED to know the answer.
no blood or dust needs to be spilled. no one has to suffer. here's why pal.

at first glance, you see all the negatives that come with SPARING. you see no investigations, you see the

Chara

wincon, you panic. it's natural. but you gotta weigh up the positives to really see what's on offer here.
if we go for the SPARE route, we get:

• mathematically great odds for the first three spares. a 9/12, a 7/10, and a 5/7 (assuming we hit town). then we have a 3/5 to win the game.
  /
  
• we can always transition into a respectable neutral route if desired. if there's no confident townreads on day 3, then whatever, we've got plan B to fall back on. but SPARING earlier is a lot better than SPARING later. the numbers are on our side.
  /
  
• mafia are rarely the top townreads in games. they love sticking around near the null/neutral line. plus, we can utilise the obvtown that will inevitably arise from this game, just like they do in every game of mafia. instead of abandoning them to be shot by mafia, we can SPARE them, and utilise them to win instead.
  /
  
• SPARING both mafia is very unlikely. if they were good enough to both be SPARED, we were probably not winning this game the normal way either. and it would be a poor performance from the town in terms of how towny they looked.
  /
  
• if we SPARE 1 mafia in 4, we are forced to SPARE one final player. a 3/4 which isn't too bad. then we have all the SPARED players return to the thread and get final chance to nail the SPARED mafia in the 5. at first glance this looks difficult. BUT, you need to factor in how we will have a lot of information to solve these players. they will have been alive and producing content from the start of the game. these are players that were towny enough to be SPARED in the first place, so will inevitably have a lot of content and reads from every player, including their scum partners to examine. these players should also have been continuing to talk and solve in the SPARED PT, and we will have associations with 2 of their buddies to examine. plus, some of the players in these 5 will be very obvtown so it'll be a decision that's more like a pick in 2 or 3 players that didn't town it up as hard.
  /
  
• finally, we get 2 days of juicy interactions to examine when
  Chara
  flips. winning the game by SPARING
  Chara
  is huge for mafia, and seeing how players read and interact with
  Chara
  will be VERY telling. if we simply FIGHT and kill
  Chara
  off day 1, then mafia has no need to do anything special around
  Chara
  , and we'll get little useful info (unless
  Chara
  is a FIGHT candidate but this is less likely).
  
  welp. that's everything i guess. think it over.

[Hectic]

the custom tags are neato.

Sorry to break the fun but
i read the setup going in. Somehow I was very confident. I am no longer confident.
Is the purpose of fighting only for info? Is 0 or 4 spares the ideal??

[Hectic]

are you going to keep pretending to be my brother? i only played along last time because the rest of the monsters were so concerned with your opinion.

HURT: Hectic
<3

[Elements]

Hectic where's the tldr?

[Hectic]

[Morning Tweet]

While the chance of getting a spare right on each day individually is pretty high, what are the odds we get it right 4/5 times in a row, and we can't use the 3 townies who get nightkilled?

9/12, 7/10, 5/7, and 3/5 are good odds on their own -- but we have to pass every single one. Surely the odds there aren't the greatest?

That being said I love townhunting so if sparing can be at least equally valid to fighting, I would choose spare just because im way more comfortable finding town than scum

you have valid points like how we can't use Chara to our advantage if we don't spare people, because then we can't use her flip as bonus info since her partners wont have treated her specially

[Hectic]

but they're not going to be random. they're going to be consensus townreads.
finding town is a hell of a lot easier than finding scum. it's easier to spot towntells and towniness than scum ones.
also, don't ya forget that it's not the end of the world if we do SPARE a scum. we got a fallback.

[catboi]

HURT: Hectic

Deliberately deceptive.

[Elements]

i very much disagree

[Elements]

[huret]catboi[/hurt]
hectic is a pillar of reliability
he never rolls scum

[Prism]

None of the arguments seem decisive at a glance. I was really hoping that someone else would do it and I could call it a day.

Whatever, time to get out my scratchpad and calculator I guess.

[Hectic]

HURT: Hectic

Deliberately deceptive.

[Elements]

HURT: catboi

[Hectic]

-the stage?
well, that's Glyde. he's my boss.
look. he can be a

little

self-obsessed and can even get jealous of himself at times
but. he has a heart of gold that guy
he doesn't want this game to turn into another mostly regular game of mafia + some investigations at the end
he really enjoys townhunting and doesn't get to do it very often at all
so yeah, i'm a little biased
but i really do believe in my arguments that it's optimal to start out with SPARING at first, and then see whether we want to continue or transition into neutral
simply based on the numbers and finding town earlier before they've been nightkilled

[Hectic]

also, people are forgetting that bad play on 4 FIGHTS (4 misFIGHTS in a row) means scum get parity and we're donezo
without any investigations at all

[CantHateAPuppy]

i kind of really want sparing to work, but i just don't think it does

how do you figure that sparing works best in the first two days? that's also when we could spare chara and that's an autoloss. if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

also though

[Elements]

if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

how do you figure that?
If there are 2 spares chara dies

[Elements]

fighting a town day 1 is similar to fighting chara on day 1
except if we fight chara scum choose the town that dies so that's worse
so if we fight first it's better to hurt town which is stupid
so we should spare

[CantHateAPuppy]

if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

how do you figure that?
If there are 2 spares chara dies

the only way for the chara to live is 1 spare then one fight right? so an early spare is necessary for scum here

if we commit to sparing twice that's one thing, but if we spare today and then fight tomorrow someone is getting the stinkeye

[Hectic]

i kind of really want sparing to work, but i just don't think it does

how do you figure that sparing works best in the first two days? that's also when we could spare chara and that's an autoloss. if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

also though

well bud, there's naturally going to be more obvtown around early because they're not dead yet from being nightkilled ya know
plus we have good odds just statistically speaking. the numbers speak to me

Chara

heavily depends on the player that rolls it. it's a tough job to be a UTR as scum
but if you're worried about scum going all in for a

Chara

SPARE victory in the first 2 days, that's fine, because if they don't pull it off the associations and evidence left behind from

Chara

's flip will be damning for them