Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT

[Toogeloo]

Swapping between Gate and Keep will cause a lot more people to question their reads.

[imaginality]

True. The risk is people see through that as T/T more easily.

[imaginality]

Perhaps useful in future: NumberQ's #427 could be painted as evidence of them being scum jumping into Wall to ensure one scum in each location. If it looks plausible to have a VP-NumberQ-Luke/Ari scum team.

[imaginality]

I guess implo could at a stretch be painted as scum if swapped with someone at the Gate, but eesh it's a high risk high reward play.

[imaginality]

You could scramble for Gate and then get swapped back to Wall for Tanner/NumberQ and we make the case that it's a town-scum swap and can get Tanner/NumberQ voted off Gate and DArby voted off Wall?

[imaginality]

We'd lose Keep to implosion but could win Gate and Wall because there'd be no scum motive to sceable for the last Gate slot

[imaginality]

Or could swap me into Wall with the same effect.
I think this could be a really good play if you read this in time to jump in Gate.

[imaginality]

... Okay ignore all that. Forgot you'd already voted

[imaginality]

Full list of possible swaps:

Town swaps
1. VP Baltar - numberQ
2. VP Baltar - DArby
3. VP Baltar - Aristeia
4. VP Baltar - implosion
5. Tanner - numberQ
6. Tanner - DArby
7. Tanner - Aristeia
8. Tanner - implosion
9. numberQ - Aristeia
10. numberQ - implosion
11. DArby - Aristeia
12. DArby - implosion

Scum swaps:
13. Imaginality - Toogeloo
14. Imaginality - Lukewarm
15. Toogeloo - Lukewarm

[imaginality]

I think if we don't kick implosion out of Keep we lose Keep.
Everyone agreed about implo going to Keep quickly so it's plausible that scum decided not to try to fight that proposal, so an implosion swap has a better chance of being seen as T/S rather than T/T compared with other swaps, I think.

It's plausible scum might swap DArby in for implosion if they have to add a scum, gambling on the likely replacement being able to be townread. So I like 12 most I think. However I'm also interested in the idea of a Tanner swap because Tanner seemed touch reluctant to go to Gate so it's plausible he could be scum. But not sure how town will react to Tanner joining Ari in the Keep. Would people be suspicious that one of Ari/Tanner is scum? Is there any world there where we can get Tanner to vote Luke rather than Ari?
One downside is people might think scum me would want Tanner out of Gate.

Of the alternative swaps for implosion, I think swapping with numberQ might be more likely seen as town-town. Similarly with VP Baltar, plus it pretty much forces us to make implosion the IC which I'm not super keen to do. The Tanner swap would also do that but has more upside.

Option 7, swapping Tanner and Ari, would be amusing! But probably doesn't achieve anything.

Of the scum swaps I think swapping me out of Gate looks too much like escaping the match up with Tanner. And swapping Luke out of Keep still means we probably lose Keep to implosion.

Trying to put myself into a town mindset, if I see the implo-DArby swap, I think it makes Wall more of a 1v1 between numberQ and Toogeloo, so I think I'd assume scum were forced into it as a T/S swap. I would be less likely to think scum Toog wanted to swap out town DArby.

There's an argument that it's better to keep DArby there and maximise our chances of winning Wall, and do the Tanner or VP Baltar swap. But I think it's easier for a good replacement for DArby to help town win at Wall compared to Keep.

[imaginality]

The other question is who to make IC.
If we go with option 12, do we make me 1v1 against Tanner or against VP Baltar?

If Tanner were scum he would want to 1v1 against me I think.

If VP were scum he might 1v1 either of us but would know Tanner would make him IC rather than me, if Tanner were scum, so making me IC would point towards VP. So I think as scum VP would make Tanner IC and 1v1 me.

If that reasoning makes sense, then that means I can 1v1 either of them without the IC choice pointing clearly to me.

Which leaves the question of who others think I'd rather 1v1 against as scum. My sense is people would think I'd rather 1v1 against Tanner than VP, and therefore I should 1v1 against VP instead.

[Lukewarm]

Location	Guardians
Gate (2)	VP Baltar (418), imaginality (424), Tanner
Keep (2)	Lukewarm (28), Aristeia(36), Implosion
Wall (2)	Toogeloo (422), numberQ (423), DArby

[Lukewarm]

I think that I like the DArby Implo swap. At that point, it think that all 3 games are 50/50 1v1s

DArby swapping into the keep would also kind of explain why "no one was jumping to go to that last slot" because DArby was not here for some of that, and maybe the scum team was just accepting that the "Dead weight" would just go to the game scum was going to lose anyways.

The down side of that being that who ever replaces DArby, or hell, DArby himself, we kind of have no idea where he would lean between Ari or Me

[Lukewarm]

I think that in that scenario, I lean into the idea that I am sure that Ari is the town between DArby and Ari, and ask if I should just vote Ari. Then (hopefully) the DArby replacement is worried and asks for vote control.

That is the best way I see to make sure that DArby's replacement gets vote control, and has a favorable view of me because I was offering to vote.

[Lukewarm]

As a selfish look into the IC choice, I think that ICing tanner would seem more likely to come from Ari then from Me, which might point in my favor.

But, I think your 1v1 choice is much more important then that. Just a thought that I had

[Toogeloo]

I don't think there is any easy choice. Making a swap from the Wall makes me look worse, unless we are swapping it to the Gate for IC purposes.

If the Keep doesn't make a change, it would show that scum is happy with the status quo, and it might cause reads to be questioned. But if you are worried about how town read implosion is, maybe just swap implosion with Tanner for maximum wifom, or with Baltar for a more questionable outcome.

Swap Darby to Gate with Tanner, make Darby the IC. Darby slot probably wouldn't make a good IC regardless whether replaced or not. But then we might lose the Keep.

Swapping Luke and imaginality might raise enough eyebrows to change reads.

I really don't know the right answer.

[Toogeloo]

Why don't you guys make the swap that increase our chances best in two games with little regard to the third game?

[Toogeloo]

What I like about this game is that one scum can't carry the team. We have to each do some work.

[imaginality]

If the Keep doesn't make a change, it would show that scum is happy with the status quo, and it might cause reads to be questioned.

The risk is town would assume it's a forced swap, rather than question their reads in Keep.

But if you are worried about how town read implosion is, maybe just swap implosion with Tanner for maximum wifom, or with Baltar for a more questionable outcome.

As mentioned I'm not opposed to those. I do think the DArby swap tells more of a story though.

Swap Darby to Gate with Tanner, make Darby the IC. Darby slot probably wouldn't make a good IC regardless whether replaced or not. But then we might lose the Keep.

I think we want DArby as a potential mislim (in whichever game) rather than confirm that slot as town.

Swapping Luke and imaginality might raise enough eyebrows to change reads.

It would certainly seem a weird choice. Luke and Ari don't seem buddies so it would be hard for me to argue it's an S/T swap. And I'm not sure town would believe it's T/T. The best chance is hoping they believe it's T/S (Luke T. Me S) which might win us Gate.

Why don't you guys make the swap that increase our chances best in two games with little regard to the third game?

I'd rather get the best increase to our overall odds. I see the DArby - implo swap as -17% in Wall as it pretty much makes you a 1v1 with numberQ, and +50% in Keep (should make it a 1v1 there and I like Luke's plan) so overall puts us at 50% chance of winning, compared with 50% Gate *67% Wall =33% chance of winning otherwise.

If you are sure you'd lose a 1v1 with numberQ then that changes the picture somewhat. In that case I think we could swap numberQ and implosion so you 1v1 with DArby and we can still maybe pull the same move in Keep? numberQ was a bit absent early on so the story of being caught on the hop by the two Keep votes and the implosion to Keep plan could still work.

[imaginality]

What I like about this game is that one scum can't carry the team. We have to each do some work.

Yeah, agreed!

[imaginality]

@mod: if DArby needs replacing will night be extended until a replacement is found?

[imaginality]

Of the alternative swaps for implosion, I think swapping with numberQ might be more likely seen as town-town. Similarly with VP Baltar, plus it pretty much forces us to make implosion the IC which I'm not super keen to do. The Tanner swap would also do that but has more upside.

In my earlier post I said swapping implosion and numberQ means we have to make implo IC but of course that's not true. So the only downside vs DArby/implo is it might be more likely seen as T/T compared to DArby/implo.

[Prism]

@mod: if DArby needs replacing will night be extended until a replacement is found?

Yes.

I will publicly announce if they pick up the prod, but the timing for the prod's expiration is late at night for me. I will try to be timely, but may not be able to announce prior to deadline passing.

With this in mind, it is probably best to submit actions with the assumption they are staying until I announce otherwise. You are of course free to speculate and make plans and submit actions around the slot's occupancy as much or as little as you see fit.

[Toogeloo]

Since I'm already in the more favorable game, you guys make the choice that benefits us most.

[Lukewarm]

I think that implo should always swap out. But who comes in his place is not super important to me I guess

I think that if inplonstays, the keep is always lost.

And I think that we should be aiming for a chance at each one, admitting defeat on any game seems dangerous because they both other games are must wins, which is hard to guarantee.

The issue I see is that Ari and inplo are my top two town reads, so of they are both there then I automatically become the voter