Mini 2277 Neighbourhood PT

[Seanzie]

Haschel just claimed to be a doc. I don't know if I believe them, but I'm curious to see where this goes.

[Seanzie]

Actually, maybe...

Doc and RB in some sense actually kind of nerf my investigative abilities, so while like the value of all the PRs individually seems to be too powerful, the sum of them taken together isn't quite as high.

[redcardinal]

I agree, doc actually does make sense in this setup.

[redcardinal]

actually pretty sure doc can't save a weak pr from dying due to targeting scum

[redcardinal]

still I believe it, hasche drops to the bottom of the poe imo

[Seanzie]

Hmm, okay. In that case if we clear Haschel, there is room for Enchant in the PoE.

Probably something like Klick->Mala->Enchant->Schadd?

I put Schadd lowest there because really if there are four PRs, them being vanilla and not carrying the kill becomes weirder and weirder.

[redcardinal]

Hmm, okay. In that case if we clear Haschel, there is room for Enchant in the PoE.

Probably something like Klick->Mala->Enchant->Schadd?

I put Schadd lowest there because really if there are four PRs, them being vanilla and not carrying the kill becomes weirder and weirder.

true, yeah I like that

[Seanzie]

Nice! Klick was mafia!

[Seanzie]

Okay, so that also almost assuredly clears Schadd, no way mafia only has informed.

[Seanzie]

KT, if yous ee this, I recommend RBing Mala, but an definitely open to hearing your thoughts.

[redcardinal]

"I will hammer as soon as I pull in the driveway if I don't see a claim when I get home" based and dadpilled

[redcardinal]

Okay, so that also almost assuredly clears Schadd, no way mafia only has informed.

agreed

[redcardinal]

hahahah look at that flailing before the hammer tho klick is practically confirming us for us regardless what happens tonight

[redcardinal]

I'm gonna call it and say unless t3 is scum this is gg right here

[redcardinal]

floating on air

[Seanzie]

hahahah look at that flailing before the hammer tho klick is practically confirming us for us regardless what happens tonight

Yeah, and I think it is good Klick was going for you in that way. I don't think mafia knows you have a hidden clear on you, so they'll try to position to miselim you tomorrow, and that might just make it obvious who is scum. If I die tonight, take your time outing your clear. See who tries to chop you first.

[Seanzie]

I think my D1 post will be enough to clear you, but just in case anyone doubts, you can also point out that D2 I kinda freaked out when you were becoming a wagon and pushed Enchant to hammer Eira so adamantly partially to make sure you didn't get yeeted.

KT should also be able to vouch for you, but them not talking in here is making it hard to coordinate with them.

[Seanzie]

#1444 is something that T3 should be pressed over.

While I am still okay keeping them as one of the stronger non-lock townies, upon a reread of today, their take on Klick in that post seems overly generous, and T3 has gotten almost no heat all game, so pressuring them a bit to see how they react might be helpful.

[Seanzie]

Specifically, I don't agree that Klick's read on me felt genuine. If I was a total noob, then sure, townlocking me as hard as Klick did would make sense, but T3 knows I'm not a noob, and I don't think my playstyle comes off as a noob, so Klick's overly generous read on me was bad, and T3 thinking it was genuine is fiishy/worth exploring. Don't tunnel them, but they do deserve a side-eye for that.

[Seanzie]

Specifically, I don't agree that Klick's read on me felt genuine. If I was a total noob, then sure, townlocking me as hard as Klick did would make sense, but T3 knows I'm not a noob, and I don't think my playstyle comes off as a noob, so Klick's overly generous read on me was bad, and T3 thinking it was genuine is fiishy/worth exploring. Don't tunnel them, but they do deserve a side-eye for that.

[Seanzie]

Ugh, the more I look, the more I find myself suspecting T3.

I think based of Galron's early neighbor breadcrumb, neighbor claim, and informed flip that mafia is informed that there is some sort of town neighborhood shiz going on. T3 in #1583 I think is kind could be looking for that town neighborhood, pressing them to claim to try to cast doubt on the PR.

I don't know if I see T3 making that post if they're town not expecting another PR claim. Scum expecting a neighbor claim to come out eventually though makes sense.

[Seanzie]

Ugh, the more I look, the more I find myself suspecting T3.

I think based of Galron's early neighbor breadcrumb, neighbor claim, and informed flip that mafia is informed that there is some sort of town neighborhood shiz going on. T3 in #1583 I think is kind could be looking for that town neighborhood, pressing them to claim to try to cast doubt on the PRs.

I don't know if I see T3 making that post if they're town not expecting another PR claim. Scum expecting a neighbor claim to come out eventually though makes sense.

EBWOP: PRs

[Seanzie]

The more I think about it though, the more I think we only lose to a vig or a strongarm.

Assuming I die tonight (otherwise I can revise this) and no other deaths happen, if there isn't a strongarm:

D4:

Clears:
Red
KT
Mala

Non-clears:
Schadd
T3
Haschel
Enchant

So kill anyone in the non-clears (probably not Schadd). At night, Red gives another clear. D5 KT dies, but gives a new clear, so we still have 3 clears, and now only 2 PoE, which wins.
-------------------------------------------------------
If KT dies tonight it is slightly harder. D4:

Clears:
Seanzie
Red
Mala

PoE:
Schadd
T3
Enchant
Haschel

if we softclear Schadd, this is gamewinning still.
-------------------------------------------
Conclusion:
Assuming no vig/no strongarm.... if I die tonight we win. If I don't die tonight, we only lose against Schadd.

[Seanzie]

Yeah, no... I might be tunneled, but I am thinking it is T3 with high enough probability that I want them PoE'd.

Red (or KT) if this seems insane, I'd be happy to hear your takes, but up until recently I've kind of been clearing T3 superficially and idk if you're in the same boat or not.

[Seanzie]

Ugh yeah, my post #790 was spot on.

T3 is scum. I really think this will end the game.