Super UPick - Abandoned by mods
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- Iecerint
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- Iecerint
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I disagree with both those halfs. I don't want to risk us losing do to him being unlynchable and somehow avoiding kills. Ssk if youd do the honors. We are plenty ahead to dominate any remaining scum with the lynch alone. I don't know if we have that luxury when it comes to BM.Iecerint wrote:If BM is the last scum, there's no harm in shooting some people. If he's not, it's better to shoot some people.Taking a break from the site.- Iecerint
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I think expected payoff is still better if we try a second lynch first. There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot today. That assumes that the probabilities of wasting either kind of shot are equal, but I don't think they are because unlynchable BM requires postulating Drench's rule.
So I think we should shoot Primate, then someone else if Primate is town, then lynch BM to end the day.
If there is some nightmare scenario this course of action promotes that I'm not getting, please enlighten me.- Iecerint
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You have access to another day kill for today? If so please shoot BM. Im positive we can win this with the lynch alone if BM is dead. Therefore my top priority is ensuring he dies. Winning on day 3 or day 7 makes no difference to me.Iecerint wrote:I think expected payoff is still better if we try a second lynch first. There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot today. That assumes that the probabilities of wasting either kind of shot are equal, but I don't think they are because unlynchable BM requires postulating Drench's rule.
So I think we should shoot Primate, then someone else if Primate is town, then lynch BM to end the day.
If there is some nightmare scenario this course of action promotes that I'm not getting, please enlighten me.Taking a break from the site.- chamber
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The difference is if we 'waste' a shot on him we can then lynch him. This guarantees that he's dead come night. If we waste a lynch on him we can't vig kill till tomorrow and I don't wana risk night hijynx ruining that.Iecerint wrote:EBWOPfromawhileago: There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shootother players who aren't BMtoday. fix'dTaking a break from the site.- Iecerint
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