Super UPick - Abandoned by mods


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:38 am

Post by Iecerint »

EBWOP: Also, don't shoot BM. Would be a waste IMO. Chances that there's unlynchable scum in this set-up is very very low.
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:52 am

Post by Iecerint »

D'ya think "Traitor" means "traitor" in the typical sense, or that it means Drench was culted?
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:56 am

Post by chamber »

Honestly we are dominating this game to such a degree that I don't see 'wasting' a shot as a bad thing. I'd rather 'waste' a shot and guarantee that he dies.
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:01 am

Post by Iecerint »

3/4 sure ain't bad. Did you guys really come up with that last D1? O_O Could be that Drench wasn't scum yet back then, though.

My bias is to shoot 2 of O, tajo, and Primate with our shots, then lynch BM. If that doesn't work again, shoot him tomorrow and lynch Bogre.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:03 am

Post by Iecerint »

EBWOP: But Drench being culted means that only one mason at most is scum, so Primate is definitely one of the ideal shot targets.

Primate, please say some stuff.
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:08 am

Post by chamber »

I don't see why we can't just lynch those people(ok my sublist would be different form yours) after we make sure boxman is dead and the game isn't over.
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:11 am

Post by Iecerint »

If BM is the last scum, there's no harm in shooting some people. If he's not, it's better to shoot some people.
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:22 am

Post by chamber »

Iecerint wrote:If BM is the last scum, there's no harm in shooting some people. If he's not, it's better to shoot some people.
I disagree with both those halfs. I don't want to risk us losing do to him being unlynchable and somehow avoiding kills. Ssk if youd do the honors. We are plenty ahead to dominate any remaining scum with the lynch alone. I don't know if we have that luxury when it comes to BM.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:24 am

Post by Iecerint »

Unlynchable scum requires WAY more suspension of disbelief than doublevoting scum IMO. I'd say it's guaranteed that unlynchable scum isn't in the game unless it was someone's rule.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:26 am

Post by chamber »

Iecerint wrote:Unlynchable scum requires WAY more suspension of disbelief than doublevoting scum IMO. I'd say it's guaranteed that unlynchable scum isn't in the game unless it was someone's rule.
If there is any chance of it at all why not play it safe?
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:28 am

Post by Iecerint »

I guess it could've been Drench's rule. Would fit with him keeping it to himself to prevent fakeclaims D1 if we assume that Traitor means Culted.

Mod: Could we have Pome's rolename?
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:33 am

Post by Iecerint »

I think expected payoff is still better if we try a second lynch first. There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot today. That assumes that the probabilities of wasting either kind of shot are equal, but I don't think they are because unlynchable BM requires postulating Drench's rule.

So I think we should shoot Primate, then someone else if Primate is town, then lynch BM to end the day.

If there is some nightmare scenario this course of action promotes that I'm not getting, please enlighten me.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:37 am

Post by Iecerint »

Also, is your shortlist radically different from mine, or just subtly different?
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:38 am

Post by chamber »

Iecerint wrote:I think expected payoff is still better if we try a second lynch first. There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot today. That assumes that the probabilities of wasting either kind of shot are equal, but I don't think they are because unlynchable BM requires postulating Drench's rule.

So I think we should shoot Primate, then someone else if Primate is town, then lynch BM to end the day.

If there is some nightmare scenario this course of action promotes that I'm not getting, please enlighten me.
You have access to another day kill for today? If so please shoot BM. Im positive we can win this with the lynch alone if BM is dead. Therefore my top priority is ensuring he dies. Winning on day 3 or day 7 makes no difference to me.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:40 am

Post by chamber »

Iecerint wrote:Also, is your shortlist radically different from mine, or just subtly different?
Somewhere between radical and subtle.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:41 am

Post by Iecerint »

I got another one after the shot:
Iecerint wrote:PM from the Mod. I have another shot. :D
I'm not sure I can use it today, though, come to think of it. Let me check.

I forgot that DN was playing the game. He's O-tier. <_< Dunno if that had anything to do with it.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:44 am

Post by Iecerint »

(Spoilers: I'm not going to shoot BM today even if I can. Bully SSK into that if you want. I may shoot Primate, unless you have a compelling argument for someone else.)
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:49 am

Post by Iecerint »

EBWOPfromawhileago: There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot
other players who aren't BM
today. fix'd
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:54 am

Post by chamber »

Iecerint wrote:EBWOPfromawhileago: There's no difference between "wasting" a shot on BM today and "wasting" a lynch on BM today except that we have a chance of finishing the game a little sooner IF he still has scum out there if we shoot
other players who aren't BM
today. fix'd
The difference is if we 'waste' a shot on him we can then lynch him. This guarantees that he's dead come night. If we waste a lynch on him we can't vig kill till tomorrow and I don't wana risk night hijynx ruining that.
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:07 am

Post by Iecerint »

Hmm. Is probable that they pick up an NK or something, I guess. I still think the unlynchable scum hypothesis is very very remote, though. <_<
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:25 am

Post by Iecerint »

Also, selective scarequotes are dishonest. :P
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:59 am

Post by Bogre »

Or maybe you just don't want to shoot your Godfather.

Understandable, that.
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Scum do it in the Shadows.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:08 am

Post by Iecerint »

The only reason to shoot BM today is that it makes it possible that we could kill both BM and Bogre before N3.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:45 am

Post by MafiaSSK »

Iecerint wrote:The only reason to shoot BM today is that it makes it possible that we could kill both BM and Bogre before N3.
I stand by this
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:47 am

Post by chamber »

MafiaSSK wrote:
Iecerint wrote:The only reason to shoot BM today is that it makes it possible that we could kill both BM and Bogre before N3.
I stand by this
Then lets pretend this is why I want you to shoot BM and get it over with already.
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