Mina wrote:But what I find really off is that he hasn't even reacted to the fact that his one major scum read (Red Coyote) was wrong.
I'm not sure what kind of reaction one would expect. I don't base any of my reads on his alignment, so I don't need to re-evaluate any of my current reads; I still think the case is fundamentally good, so due to that and the impending deadline it's going to be difficult to distinguish between townies and scum jumping on the wagon. Beyond "oops I suck" or (in this case) "dangit Red why didn't you answer my questions", neither of which are terribly productive, I'm not sure what you're getting at.
Mina wrote:When I ask him this: {post
#653} He ignores
every single question
This is a mistake on my part; I didn't intentionally ignore it, I put it off and then forgot about it. You can see that there's a long time between iso #34 and iso #35, the
response being iso #36. I was reading the game and couldn't remember the last time I posted, but I thought it'd been a while, so I made that as a prod-avoidance-post until I could get to the game tomorrow or the next day. Real life, I suck, etc. When I came back to make iso #37, I remembered where I'd read to, but forgot that I needed to respond to something before then. You could just have said, like, hay Elmo why haven't you answered my questions?
Mina wrote:flippantly admits to enjoying the drama between me and Benmage.
Absolutely. I think it's deeply amusing, on the level of a good sitcom. I have no idea why you think that's scummy. (I can see why you'd find it
infuriating
... but not anti-town.)
Mina wrote:who he thinks will win the avatar bet.
If it isn't obvious, I think you're likely to win the bet if Ben is town purely based on the number of townies in the game. That is, I think the prior probability of Percy being a townie is sufficiently high that it's very difficult for a good player to get the posterior probability low enough to make the bet a good move, remembering that Ben's opinion was formed on Day 1. If Ben's scum, it doesn't matter, so only good (and by good I mean hilarious) things can happen from my point of view (in the context of the bet, obviously a mislynch is bad).
Mina wrote:-Mentions the obvious reason for why havingfitz was NK'd (he replaced someone on the DF wagon) rather dismissively
Elmo wrote:Furcolow wrote:i just skimmed havingfitz to see who he was suspicious of (possibly why he died?)
He replaced Oso, who was quite strongly on the Dry-fit wagon; I believe that's why he was killed.
I think it's unfair to characterise that as dismissive. I don't see any implication that I'm necessarily right, or he should stop thinking about it; the reason I pointed out the obvious is that it's only obvious if you remember that fitz replaced Oso, which I for one didn't.
Mina wrote:(ignoring the juicier question of why havingfitz was killed over Locke/IaI/jason/Benmage--I have suspicions on this, but I'll save them for later)
I'm not if you're implying this is scummy or not; I didn't think much about it, but I don't think it's that juicy. Iai and jason look much more lynchable than Oso in the long run; Benmage is probably generating friction with townies that looks potentially exploitable and/or they think he'll lead the town astray in the future; Locke isn't doing vast amounts. I think in retrospect it's not a terribly interesting kill.
However, there's one thing I missed, which is that if Benmage is town, he's a pretty obvious kill by most standards if Percy is scum. Leaving him alive pretty strongly points to Percy being town if Benmage is town.
Mina wrote:asks Percy a few decent questions (although a bit redundant, since Percy had already explained his DF suspicions several times),
I don't believe he has answered those specific questions, as I said in the post.
Mina wrote:and makes a reasonable point for why Percy would be less likely to vote RC as town (this I like, but it's not brilliant analysis and would be easy to fake as scum, particularly since he's not defending Percy with much passion--he agrees with Thor, but then he qualifies his town read with a seed of doubt).
Elmo wrote:I also don't understand why Percy didn't vote Red yesterday if he's scum; he'd only has one buddy to swing the wagon, so it seems rather risky.. I think it's extremely dubious as town, but I've seen far more town do it than scum.
I don't believe that's true. I don't know what you're referring to; I said it's extremely dubious as town, because it is, it's simply bad play. The reaction I expect includes people pointing out it makes no sense, so I think it's correct to acknowledge that before saying that it's typically more frequently from town, since the thought process that prompts that action is much closer to a townie's mindset. (I have been in at least one game where we lynched town instead of scum because the lynched townie refused to vote for the scum, believing they were town. One game on Day 1, after I pushed for the SK lynch; I was quietly
displeased
.)
Mina, with respect to Lrdwhyt wrote:I don't think I ever even
used
the words "IIoA." My case had to do with Lrdwhyt's weird backtrack on jason and I am Innocent, his lack of scumhunting, his unexplained reads, and his defence.
Hm, fair. I observed the above, and thought I remembered you saying something similar, I don't think I actually checked back (wallposts, partially) to see the whole thing. I only skimmed your case, since it was so close to deadline and I was already voting the person with the most votes.
Elmo wrote:I'm also kinda interested in lrdwhyt.. I do agree with Mina a bit, some of his posts seem too close to IIoA for comfort. Definitely, I would like to see more stated reasoning rather than just conclusions. I'm not sure whether to push this by itself, or file it under "wait and see".
Mina wrote:And how did you leap from "IIoA" to "stated reasoning rather than just conclusions"? Information Instead of Analysis means that on the contrary, he
isn't
giving conclusions, just talking about neutral facts. Those are two completely different, unrelated charges.
Yeah, this is my bad. What I am trying to describe was the way he made statements like in
#462, "Elmo seems pretty decent. / Don't have anything on Locke Lamora, strangely. / Mina is kind of scummy." and not giving much, if any detail about the reasoning behind those conclusions. That is, he was giving us information about what his suspicions were, but not showing any analysis of how he got there. I didn't read closely, but I thought that a lot of his posts were in that vein. I actually do know what IIoA means, I figured it could be applied to that but obviously it's unclear. (I also believe IIoA can apply when people give conclusions, since those aren't actually analysis, but it's tangential.)
Mina wrote:And what the hell are you talking about in the last line? Push
what
by itself? Why the hell wouldn't you try to pressure Lrdwhyt if you suspect him?
I don't think it's a good idea to attack him on that basis alone, because it's too weak; firstly, it's just not that strong a case, maybe he's town and hasn't got his teeth into the game yet, and secondly because a weak attack tends to undermine later attacks, even if there's subsequently much stronger evidence. If he's scum, then hopefully this prompting will either get him to produce analysis which can be used in a stronger case (or gain a town read if he's town), or it'll become obvious over time that he's deliberately not doing it when asked.
However, if this by itself is too weak, then I can't really attack him for it, and he doesn't have any incentive to come up with the goods. This is (admittedly perhaps poorly done) a way of trying to find out how others think this should be handled, and what they think of that pattern (given I didn't read his posts closely, whether it exists at all). To some extent, I was thinking out loud.
Mina wrote:Oh, and another question. What did you think of imkingdavid's play?
At the time, I thought it was somewhat sketchy, inthat he only made one sizeable post with a lot of oneliners that didn't seem to go anywhere, but when he announced V/LA and replaced out, I chalked it up to him being distracted with real life concerns. I also didn't like this much:
imkingdavid wrote:Anyway, just did an ISO of Benmage. His first few posts are about as obvscum as you can get. First, he complains about not being scum (yeah... right...). Then he says we should not use one of our lynches, which is a terrible idea, and then he immediately changes his mind when someone calls him on it, as if he didn't know.
I thought that was obviously a mischaracterisation, and a fairly scummy attack, but there was so much confusion surrounding it that I didn't press it further. In retrospect, I remembered I didn't like a post of his, but it's rather scummier than I remembered.
Mina wrote:-One-liner asking Sotty how she's distinguishing between BS being scum and a VI. Fair enough, although still easy to fake and diminishes Sotty's pressure on Baby Spice. Elmo, I'm just curious. Why did you choose to ask Sotty this question?
I thought that the way she interacted with Baby Spice was odd; I'm not sure if I remembered at the time, but the combination of this looked odd to me:
Sotty7 wrote:Nikanor Post 232 wrote:My vote on jason has never been easy or weak. I've been pushing this bloody wagon uphill all the way. I've been pointing out everything that points to jasonscum since his first serious post of the day. My vote is not weak.
It's easy and weak in my eyes because I have played a bunch of games with Jason. This is how he fails as a townie, he acts before he thinks. As scum he is much more calm and controlled. I don't agree anything he has done today is obv scum at all.
Sotty7 wrote:I've been saying for awhile now that I think he is town. He has a tendency to get into trouble like this because he tends to play on emotions and will just knee jerk to everything. As scum he is much more composed.
Sotty7 wrote:Baby Spice Post 649 wrote:Benmage is still arrogant scum, nothing changed there. Seriously 'confirmed' in this game means you're dead and flipped. Claiming otherwise is scum trying to make themselves into a white knight and lead the town to a loss.
No.
Baby Spice Post 649 wrote:Sotty, Mina. You both seem to be having a go at each other, but are both voting the same player. It makes me think that one of you is faking the discussion/arguement, which is scummy, whilst buddying up to them, which is also scummy. Or that one of you is bussing hard and trying to use the other as cover.
Vote Lrdwhyt
This paragraph and vote do not match with each other. I can't speak with Mina but I like to engage my suspects to figure out better if they are town or scum. Ftr, right now I am starting to lean towards Mina town which is an almost 180 from my position at the start of the day.
Your reasoning is bizarre and what makes it even worse is that you
join
the wagon myself and Mina are on. WTF?
Unvote, Vote: Babyspice
I think Baby Spice's behaviour looks quite like jason's in certain respect. If you look at how she's arguing with Benmage, I think that's a least a significant contributor to what she's saying; she certianly seems the type to wear her emotions on her sleeve in a way similar to what Sotty described. I would have thought that, seeing what happened with jason, she might be slower to attack someone who displayed similar behaviour. In the quoted post, she appears to be voting BS largely for bad logic, which I believe is probably null.
Mina wrote:-But then, defends BS by saying that
Benmage
thinks BS would know not to attack him were she scum...but then quickly backpedals by saying this is just what Benmage thinks, and she
may
have done other scummy things, although he's not sure what they are:
Elmo wrote:It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:
Benmage wrote:Percy wrote:2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,
2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.
HEY THOR!!!!
This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.
The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to
try
regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.
Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (
I have my own view, but it's uninteresting
.)
The bolded line in particular is horrendous. Seriously, how did no one notice this? Not "I'm going to stay silent so as not to influence people's reactions." Because his opinions are "uninteresting." Why did you even post such useless fluff? Give us your uninteresting opinions on Baby Spice,
now
.
Because that doesn't refer to my view of Baby Spice, that refers to the very general idea of "what is scummy?", which is what I start my post off by referencing; I've re-added some of the quote which was snipped, because it's easier to see in context. The specific point I am responding to was:
Thor665 wrote:1. BS is doing horribly scummy things.
and this is difficult because I only see her do things like use dubious logic; the question then follows whether bad logic is scummy. I would answer no, not necessarily, but people have reasonable disagreements with my viewpoint - the problem is that this is a theory debate, and it rarely if ever goes anywhere useful, and to a large extent Thor already sees what I'm getting at. So, I don't think it's productive to state anything further. (I'm really not sure how that's consistent with me needing to reread her, anyhow.)
Mina wrote:Also clarifies in his next post that it's not his opinion and he doesn't "wholly agree" with Benmage's logic, but that he doesn't like the reasons people are using to attack Baby Spice.
I think it's more like, to me, it's actually pretty unclear why people are attacking her, and from where I'm sitting my guess is that it's things I think are null, like the aforementioned. But it's entirely possible I'm missing something. I think Benmage is probably right, but I think it's a weak tell and he puts too much faith in it.
Mina wrote:-And his last post starts off with okay points in response to Thor on how his town read on Percy would depend on how Percy explains his DF stance, and how he can see more of a scum motivation for Percy's behaviour than BS's (which is reasonable, albeit it could be worded more precisely, but still really obvious and a bit on the IIoA side).
It's not IIoA because I am responding to Thor specifically comparing the two:
Thor665 wrote:I can see that argument. Do you see my points on Percy though? Other then getting personally offended at Benmage (shock) his great scumtell is not liking the Dry-fit wagon. That can come from town just as much as BS's actions could (I've certainly been the town idiot caught defending scum before).
and it is clearly not obviously true to him.
Mina wrote:So...um, he agrees with Thor's read on Percy...but is unwilling to defend him, even though he's already weakly defended Percy several times in his earlier posts...because there's a
reasonable chance
he's scum.
I did not say I was unwilling to defend him. I said I was not super happy about defending him. If what I am saying was right, then my read of him is close to null; I get zero town cred if he gets lynched and flips town, and I get a lot of flak if he's scum. So, I think it's a losing proposition for me, but I don't see a better option.
Mina wrote:And he doesn't have
any confidence
in BS being town...even though, if you've been following this case, he defended her before from Sotty's attack just a few posts by saying he thought some of the arguments against her were spurious. He needs to reread her. Um...
what
?
This is also correct. I believe the case against her appears bad. That does
not
mean I think she is town; similarly, I have a null read on her. I do not think anything I've seen her do is something she'd be significantly more likely to do as either alignment, and considering what I have just said about her case, it's easy for people to think that I believe she's town because I just defended her.
Mina wrote:Oh, and...maybe DF was bussed. Maybe. Just maybe, one of the confirmed players might be scum. He doesn't know. He doesn't want to start conspiracy theories, of course, not too early
when there are viable mislynches on the table
...but he'd be happy if
you
all shared your conspiracy theories, so he can decide if they're worth bandwagoning.
Problem: I was on the Dry-fit wagon. If I'm scum, scum did bus, and we need to lynch at least one person on that wagon. Obviously this question concerns whether or not we should lynch people on the wagon, and I want to see what people think, but whether or not they're mislynches is exactly the question I'm posing. Thor, for example, has said he would bus; I think that's useful information.
As we lynch more people who were off the wagon, like we're probably going to (at the time that was written), and they flip town (if scum bussed), then the probability of scum having bussed goes up. Like, if there's one living player who wasn't on the wagon, and nine dead townies who weren't on the wagon, it's probably a bad idea to lynch them just because they weren't on the wagon; at some point, the number of bodies speaks for itself. However, we've had one mislynch already; deciding, for example, to lynch Benmage because Red was actually town is clearly premature, because it relies on essentially an implausible conspiracy theory for justification. And one does see these things, like there are players who would be suspicious of Benmage purely because it's hard to get an accurate Day 1 lynch unless scum lead it; it's literally like a conspiracy theory. I don't want to go there, because it's not like we've lynched many people yet, but I'm unsure about the correct time to start thinking maybe we're not right.
Specifically, if I was asked what the typical play would be, I would answer probably one scum on the wagon and one off. That means if we lynch scum off, we might keep looking off-wagon too long due to earlier success.
Mina wrote:Oh, and he hasn't followed up on the Lrdwhyt suspicions he mentioned above--even though Lrdwhyt is the only player he seems to be suspicious of so far.
I don't believe I said I was suspicious of him. I said I was interested, inthat I mean I think he needed to be at least poked at a bit, and maybe something scummy will fall out, but don't think I'd seen anything scummy from him. (Amongst other things - wait for it - I need to reread.)
Mina wrote:Instead of coasting, why didn't you just get off your ass, reread Baby Spice, and then come back to us when you had something constructive to add? Or just reread Percy's more recent posts explaining his change of heart on Dry-Fit, and provided your own analysis on whether you thought his excuses were plausible?
I'm not sure precisely why you think I'm coasting; I've actually had real-life stuff since around the end of Day 1, but coasting would imply that I'm sitting here deliberately not working in order to spite you. Obviously, I can play better if I spend more time on mafia, but that's always true; if you think this is insufficient, then the thing to do would probably be suggesting that I replace out, although obviously
now
I'm loathe to do that. Ug.
Mina wrote:I should reread his Day One, because I remember feeling that he was townish at certain points, but his Day Two posts are scumtastic, particularly coming from a
strong experienced player
.
I'm not even going to go there, but I am curious why you have that impression of me.
Mina wrote:He has zero conviction or passion, has put no pressure on anyone (he still hasn't voted), and his picture could appear in the dictionary beside the word "wishy-washy."
I'm not passionate about mafia as either alignment, I'm not sure why that's a tell. With respect to pressure, I didn't feel that anyone needed more pressure; in terms of the popular wagons, my impression of the game was that Percy was the likeliest lynch and shouldn't be pressed further without a better case, that pressuring Baby Spice would be counter-productive, and that I didn't have much leverage to pressure LrdWhyt with, and jumping on because "lol wagon" would have been greeted with distaste; in retrospect, I wish I had reread the case and pressured him, but that's a symptom of being behind generally. I don't think voting anyone else would have caused much pressure without a convincing reason for others to hop on, which I don't have.
Mina wrote:Seriously. I'm an indecisive, waffling player. I know what genuine indecision looks like. This is not it.
I don't think I'm being indecisive. I actually think my opinions have been quite consistent, it's simply that I think a lot of the arguments out there are bad, and I'm behind on the game generally; I'm also finding it hard to find stuff when rereading, and some of it's very unclear. I'll probably just reread the entire thing soon.
But in perspective, we're still somewhat early on Day 2 in a large game. We had one scum lynch, and what to draw from that wagon has largely been what I've asked about, and another lynch that I do not think is terribly helpful as previously stated. In that context, I do not think it's horrible to not have strong scum reads when the number of scum is lower than usual. To be blunt, I believe I am thinking about the game more than e.g. some of the Baby Spice voters precisely because of that. While it's fairly obvious how it might benefit scum, I haven't seen an argument as to why I'm supposed to hold strong opinions as this point, or even how having null reads of several people is necessarily less than ideal play.
Mina wrote:How about you rank all the players in the game according to your suspect levels?
I don't know what a suspect level is. I now have a mental image of
this with things like "suspect level fuchsia" written on it. Thanks for that.
JasonT1981 - I think the way Dry-Fit freely jumped on him makes him very likely town.
Benmage - My early town read is pure gut, I think, but his role in the wagon boosts that some.
Thor665 - Thor seems pretty townish to me. I actually liked Nikanor a bit more with time.
I Am Innocent - I really think the thing with the numbers was genuine.
~~~
Locke Lamora - Mostly for being on the wagon in a good place, he's kind of a wildcard due to not doing much though.
Mina - Mildly townish 'till now, weird absence around the Dry-fit wagon iirc. Probably I'm OMG-U-Rock-ing; it's fairly weird to attack me now if she's scum.
KaleiÐoscøpe - Hard to read. Not that convinced with respect to the Dry-Fit wagon; he had a good reason, but (typically) didn't push it with any force.
Percy - Due to the end of Day 1 & Benmage not dying. Both of those reasons are somewhat thin, though.
~~~
Sotty7 - Something of a wildcard to me. Arguably the likeliest forced-busser on the Dry-Fit wagon. Haven't really seen anything I'd consider townish.
Baby Spice / Furcolow - They look really really null to me. On some level I want to think they're both town, but I have no idea how I'd figure out they're scum.
Lrdwhyt - I am just reskimming Mina's case and it actually looks pretty good. Also, the recent hop is pretty lolbad from my point of view (sup Benmage).
I would probably guess Lrdwhyt and Sotty at this point.
Vote Lrdwhyt
response being iso #36. I was reading the game and couldn't remember the last time I posted, but I thought it'd been a while, so I made that as a prod-avoidance-post until I could get to the game tomorrow or the next day. Real life, I suck, etc. When I came back to make iso #37, I remembered where I'd read to, but forgot that I needed to respond to something before then. You could just have said, like, hay Elmo why haven't you answered my questions?