Newbie 1687 (Game Over)

[Reubus Swagrid]

One doesn't seem more probable than the other either :/

[notachipmunk]

Drixx never indicated what option he wanted from me soo here is what I have to say:

I don't care if it makes me look scummy, i'm getting tired of answering the question and Drixx being like, "LOL QUOTE THE POST."

You said that you saw people who wanted to vote for me but were scared. I've asked you which people... you gave no names. I asked you what they said that made you think they were scared, and you responded with some tripe about voting 3rd against someone.

Basically you just made up a reason to vote, and I've asked you questions to see if you could actually legit show evidence that you had reason to believe other people wanted to vote me but were scared to. You have been unable to produce any evidence and dodged every question, and now you're making a straw man argument.

You're caught scum. People pay attention on this site. You can't just make something up that you have no way to support and hope nobody will question it. Consider this a friendly suggestion to up your game. But not too friendly, because you're scum and we have to lynch you. But you should definitely keep playing here. You also slipped a bit talking about VCA concepts and refusing to talk about your experience, but you probably realized why I asked I'm guessing.

Anyway, that was easy.

VOTE: Literallypam

If I am going on you vs Reubus on D1, you being just so certain on pam being scum as if great day is over is less believable than Reubus' questioning of pam.

The deadline is the deadline and FroGSC2 caused a no lynch, and I believe it's intentional. I believe he's scum and have strong reasons for that belief. He called out what I have reason to believe was a VT attempting to draw fire by claiming. If I'm dead in the morning you will see my role and it will make sense. If I'm know, I'll say more.

You said recently that you remember thinking about crumbing your BP role sometime D1. This is still D1, and you implied that you could be dead in the morning - not possible as BP. So either you at this point didn't remember (which you will I am sure claim) or you never were BP.

I'm tempted to lynch Frog today, just for suggesting that any sane mafia player would kill their only partner and for themselves into having to night kill 3 times and mislynch 3 times to win, all alone, and without getting caught.

To call that "distancing" might be the most absurd thing I've ever read in my life.

Suddenly distancing is very plausible.

I don't think Reubus gets credit for putting the first vote on Pam in RVS. Scum often vote their partner in RVS. Once the wagon was up, he may have never seen a good chance to get off.

Don't you think pam's post and Reubus' vote on pam because of it brought it out of RVS? Trying to get town cred and dismissing Reubus' vote when you voted not too long after. Scum is the only one needs to dig for towncred for not getting lynched.

I have a huge apology to make to my fellow town. I am 1-shot bulletproof. I simply forgot. It has never happened before in a game. It makes a huge change in how to evaluate things; however, it gives us two conftown.

There's an upside though. The roleblocker knew there was a 1-shot BP and left Rufus alive. Our lynch pool is {Kagesong, notachipmunk, Reubus}. We'll get to lynch two of them... so let's work the problem.

Rufus: I'd like your thoughts on each of those three.

Refer to any of my previous posts regarding my distrust of this.

You all realize I could have just "confessed" I was the 1-shot and said I hoped that I would draw night fire since the scum must know I exist, instead of telling you the truth that I mixed up games and literally didn't realize until Phantom was lynched and the thread was locked, right? If I were scum and this was a fake claim, it would not be "Oops I forgot" but "Damn ... I wish I had successfully drawn fire" and it probably wouldn't have happened today right at the day start.

Look at day one and tell me why I would have been the architect of my partner's demise when given every opportunity to go get a mislynch somewhere instead, if I were scum.

This isn't even difficult at all. I would have to be holding the most gigantic idiot ball ever made to be scum and have acted as I have.

VOTE: notachipmunk

voting me right after denying credibility of your BP claim. thought no one would question it?

Could you tell me why you're convinced its more likely chipmunk than kage?

I compared the lynch pool in ISO together. The confirmed are me and Rufus. That leaves You, Kage and Notachipmunk. Out of the three of you, notachipmunk's ISO looks more like a fabrication to me, while you are low on content but it seems to be legitimately involved with the game, and I can't find anything that smells wrong about Kage. I can do a spoiler wall on each of you tomorrow if you like. I need to finish some writing that is overdue and get it submitted. It's the only reason I'm up so late.

Thanks for thinking through things. I totally get the shock that I would so royally screw up. I really wish I hadn't. We could have put together a much better plan had town known what scum knew.

I still think we have this. We know it wasn't the replacements paired with pam, because they've been killed. Evaluating what they said and who they threatened or cleared will be helpful. Frog and I had a bit of a difference of opinion obviously and there was some friction. I'm wondering if those two (who are obviously friends prior to here) were killed to put me in a frame?

Anyway ... we need significant content from You, Kage and Chipmunk today so that Rufus and I can read you now and read you earlier and see if we can finish the game today.

I would have liked to see that spoiler wall from D3, as now you want a lot from the remaining of us.
How does killing 2 friends put you in a frame? The kill on Frog obviously makes sense for you to do, but Panther at that time a frame how?

Seriously? You guys can clear me using logic alone.

1.) If I were scum, I would not have claimed BP without any pressure on me, nor would it have been claimed anywhere near the way I did. People actually outright said in BOLD for the BP not to claim and hope to draw night fire. I could have said "I hoped the scum would shoot me, but they didn't and I feel like it's time to claim so the town knows nobody is clear" or some blather like that. Instead I told you guys the honest truth of what happened. It's embarrassing and it doesn't do anything at all to help a scum agenda; it in fact brings negative attention to me. It makes no logical sense to take this approach when a much nicer and elegant story was available to me... unless it's the truth. It's the truth.

2.) If I were scum, that would mean that I went after my partner on day one relentlessly, even when I was urged to look elsewhere and even when FrogSC2 was slinging insults at me because I stuck to my guns and said "I find one scum, and I make sure it dies; THEN I worry about the partner." (paraphrased obviously). I not only had the opportunity to go to a wagon on someone else, I was being actively insulted that I wasn't doing so. Please explain to me what rational motive could possibly lead me to do that on day one, if I were scum.

When you take just those two points together, it becomes obvious that I'm not scum. The two of you avoiding looking at context makes it seem likely that one of you is scum and the other is erm ... bad at logic.

Why would you as scum only claim is pressure is on you? Frog said at some point on D2 only scum would claim BP at some point to save themselves if they're getting lynched~ That would be an obvious scumtell. IT IS SAFER to claim without pressure, which is what you did.

@Drixx question! At what point did you forget that you were BP? I just remembered looking back at page 1 that in the role pms it asked us to reply back confirming our roles, which I imagine is helpful for remembering roles? Anyway, was it right at the start of the game you forgot due to writing it down in the wrong place or did you remember at any point during D1 too?

I recall thinking about crumbing it on day one. I don't really recall precisely when I forgot this was the game I was 1-shot BP in. I've got a folder on my desktop called "mafiastuff" and inside of there I have a folder for each game I am designing, a folder for games I've modded (off site plus one on site so far) which are complete, a folder for images I use in general, and in the main folder "mafiastuff" I have txt files which are named after the game. I simply noted 1-shot BP in the wrong notepad txt file, and then I just lost track.

Most of what I was involved in that had me a little too spread thin has completed, but in the interests of erring on the side of caution, I will simply say that you can look at my posts and see for yourself how many games I was in. On top of that I'm working on something that I can't talk about, for the site, and I lost a bunch of it when I finally let windows do the free upgrade to windows 10.

As I said at the start of today: I'm super embarrassed with myself. If we lose this game, I will blame myself 100%. It would have been far superior for the town to know yesterday what the remaining scum already knew, and I simply forgot. Having played mafia on forums for roughly a decade, and as a live game going back into my early teenage years, I have a lot of experience, and I am almost always in at least one newbie game as IC ... but that experience doesn't make me infallible. As much as I like to project confidence and be a good example ... I obviously dropped the ball big time on this one.

What really bothers me about it is that if Newbie 1686 had gone on for another day, I may not have realized and we would now be operating upon the false premise that Rufus could clear people while scum would know that to be untrue. Even worse, if today had gone fast it's possible I could have been shot and the no death could have implicated someone innocent as scum. It could have been much worse, which is what really concerns me. Whatever criticism you have of me making this mistake, believe me I am giving myself a flogging 1000x worse about it.

``````````````
Digging back into D2 but that I didn't add to this quote wall, this is what Frog said:
"Bear in mind, if Phantom is NOT the last wolf, I will HEAVILY FOS (Finger of Suspicion) anyone who hammers."
You hammered quickly. That night Frog is killed. Threat eliminated.

[Drixx]

I'm confident now.

VOTE: notachipmunk

If you fooled me Reubus; congrats.

[notachipmunk]

Voting early in LYLO and you didn't provide any useful reasons for reads today, just asked for it from us. If I am right about you then you can pretty freely be the first vote on either of us knowing neither of us would jump to hammer as town. This is also the 2nd time you've voted for me after I had any suspicion on you, without any evidence, quotes, or non-vague reasoning for it.

[Drixx]

In post #751, you clearly began with the premise I was scum, and picked out only things that supported that premise. You dismissed or ignored anything that didn't fit your narrative. If you are town, you need to learn that is a very bad way to go about figuring things out. You need to look at the totality of evidence and let it guide you to a conclusion.

I am happy with my vote. Your #751 looks like scum narrative to me. If I'm wrong, then it's on me. I already severely hurt town by screwing up my notes. Either way we slice it, if town loses it's my fault.

[notachipmunk]

Then show me what I missed or what is "wrong" about any specific parts of what I have said. I'm not quoting and reacting to all 70 posts, as I don't think anyone would. You essentially asked me why Reubus was scum, I said I could give a pro and con list for each of you, as there is one for pretty much everyone who has been in this game. But you are more likely scum to me, and so those are reasons why I believe you are more likely scum than Reubus. I could go through a list of why you look town as well, but I could do the same for Reubus, so I don't know what you are looking for here.

[Drixx]

If you really believe I'm scum, please explain:

1.) Why I would bus my partner on day one, and display absolute certainty I was right, when absolute certainty is something scum rarely if ever display. Scum frequently get caught because they hedge during twilight and appear to know a town flip is coming. Anything that displays firm knowledge of someone's alignment from scum is a fast route to a loss.

2.) Why would I still keep busing my partner after FrogSC2 and his friend showed up and turned the game on its head, giving me like a dozen easy opportunities to go after someone else?

3.) Why would I claim BP under no pressure at all and not even being really scum read at all? Why would I also point out the game that I accidentally marked as me being 1-shot BP, which had ended during the night phase of this game, in which I was scum and fake claimed BP? (You should read the scum PT for that game; my scum partner was actually going to fake claim it but had made too many posts to do it without drawing a ton of suspicion).

3a.) For the record; the optimal play for a goon who is alone with a jailkeeper is to withhold the kill in order to frame someone. It's better for the scum to have the town complacent than at high alert.

[Drixx]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and some time to answer those questions.

Unvote

[notachipmunk]

If you really believe I'm scum, please explain:

1.) Why I would bus my partner on day one, and display absolute certainty I was right, when absolute certainty is something scum rarely if ever display. Scum frequently get caught because they hedge during twilight and appear to know a town flip is coming. Anything that displays firm knowledge of someone's alignment from scum is a fast route to a loss.

(what exactly does hedging mean?)

This is the part where I am least certain on either of you and because of this bussing neither of you was on my suspect list until D3. So I will say that it is unlikely that you would vote for pam the way you did, and it is also unlikely that Reubus did. So I'm left with only improbable scenarios for this. I will go back to what I said in my what would have had to have happened for each of you post, and this is what I believe you would have done:
"D1 would have had to have told pam he was gonna play very risky with some kind of plan in mind, like let's target each other, and then pam either messed it up and Drixx thinks he will be conftown for a solid read very early on and can win even by lynching his partner D1."
I think if you are scum then you planned it. I don't know if it was a plan until after Reubus voted or what, but there were 3 days in between Reubus latching onto something pam said and voting, and you going for your super confident vote. That is enough time to work a plan out.

2.) Why would I still keep busing my partner after FrogSC2 and his friend showed up and turned the game on its head, giving me like a dozen easy opportunities to go after someone else?

You may not have needed to. Rufus jumped off, Panther at some point jumped off, Frog was holding off - a lot of people got switchy on their votes near the end. You may not have thought you needed to do anything for town to self-destruct, pretty much, especially after being so adamant about pam earlier would be drawing attention to yourself, which I think is viable as a plan given the other option of Reubus doing it. I again do find a lot of D1 improbable, but it's become possible, so sorry if I'm wrong, but I don't see a more likely way than this.



3.) Why would I claim BP under no pressure at all and not even being really scum read at all? Why would I also point out the game that I accidentally marked as me being 1-shot BP, which had ended during the night phase of this game, in which I was scum and fake claimed BP? (You should read the scum PT for that game; my scum partner was actually going to fake claim it but had made too many posts to do it without drawing a ton of suspicion).

The timing is what gets to me about it. It was right after a Frog kill happened, the guy who was pushing hard for a BP claim throughout the previous day. At that point who we had left were 3 newbies, you, and an SE. The main threat to a claim like that would be Frog I would think. Whether or not being an IC means you are strong player, it means a lot more experience than the 3 of us who are totally new (I think none of which had experience on other sites either?), so I think you may have considered it a safe time to do it. I'm not much of a "loud" player, kage's logic was a bit....off, and Rufus I don't really know, but none of us three hold the power that Frog seemed to hold over the game or the ability to convince others. If you intended to get rid of me or kage D3, which I assume was your plan, I also figure you would think it easy to get rid of the other one of us D4, knowing we were both VTs.
Your reason was weird, but if you were to use the same reason as you did in your last game that seems to have had the same setup then gg, no one believes you and it's over.

3a.) For the record; the optimal play for a goon who is alone with a jailkeeper is to withhold the kill in order to frame someone. It's better for the scum to have the town complacent than at high alert.

Always better though? It also appears, even from your last game as scum, that being a goon who knows there is a jailkeeper makes claiming BP a safe move, as no one can counterclaim you as there is no other town PR.
Can you explain this optimal play to me and how that would play out & which kill are you talking about here?

[notachipmunk]

oops left my answers in the quote thing

[notachipmunk]

It's getting close to 1am here so I'll check back in the morning or whenever I wake up.

[Drixx]

As far as day one goes, you have observed something crucial but you're missing what it could mean.

What do you think scum partners do early in the game? Do they vote for each other or avoid voting for each other? Which is more likely to help them later in the game?

[Reubus Swagrid]

I'm about to combust over trying to decide what to believe

[Reubus Swagrid]

Should I just ask Siri to flip a coin? xD

[Drixx]

You've played with me Reubus, so if you're town you should know I'm town. The problem I have with you is that you refuse to play ball. You won't give substantial posts with cases against me and notachipmunk nor are you willing to point out why I should town read you.

Notachipmunk's post was skewed and appears to have been made with a pre-set agenda, but at least she is engaging. Can you do the same?

[notachipmunk]

As far as day one goes, you have observed something crucial but you're missing what it could mean.

What do you think scum partners do early in the game? Do they vote for each other or avoid voting for each other? Which is more likely to help them later in the game?

I assume what you are saying here is scum partners want to vote for each other early in the game rather than avoid. So you want me to look at Reubus' vote being earlier than yours in this context or I am totally off?

[notachipmunk]

I still don't understand how making a why someone is more likely than the other to be scum post to be skewed when that is what you wanted!

"I would like each of you to tell me why you are town and why the other is scum"

[Drixx]

Yes; scum partners frequently vote for each other in RVS or shortly after RVS. Reubus' vote was super early and from my perspective (since I know for sure I am indeed 1-shot BP as I've claimed), that

might

be distancing. Once literallypam moved into obvscum territory, Reubus had no safe opportunity to jump off the wagon unless I did so first, since I was the one who was pushing the case hard and refusing to relent. That by itself doesn't make him scum, but it does make one thing fairly clear: Between Reubus and myself, I'm the only one you have to assume intentionally bused a partner on day one if you posit me as scum. Reubus could have simply been doing some distancing and got stuck on the wagon with no safe opportunity to jump off.

I mean ... if Reubus had jumped off the wagon at some point once I was convinced pam was scum and expressed my confidence, and then pam flipped scum, how would Reubus getting off the wagon appear to you? It would look pretty bad right?


As for #766

Just temporarily accept the following premise:

1.) I have been honest with my BP claim and am therefore town.


That means I know one of you is town and one of you is scum. If you both accept that my claim is true, then both of you have to make a case against each other and show why I should town read you, because ultimately my vote will be the deciding factor and determine who wins.

The problem is that you don't accept the premise that my claim is true, which is totally your prerogative. If you did/do accept the premise; however, and if you are town, then you would automatically know the other player is scum, and so starting from that premise and going to find evidence is logical and rational in that case, whereas it is almost never a good idea to use that approach in mafia when you aren't sure. The problem with how you evaluated me is that you didn't look at the evidence and let it tell you whether I'm telling the truth or not. You started with the premise that I'm scum and you quoted only things you could interpret to support that hypothesis. You also left out things that couldn't be used to make it look like I am scum but do give weight to me being honest. You also chose deliberately to interpret similar evidence differently in my case than in Reubus' case.


You also haven't explained why I should believe you are town. One thing that's weighing in your favor is that you are at least engaging. Reubus is dodging and I'm not sure why. It's not that many posts, so Occam's razor suggests he's trying to avoid doing what I asked because he's afraid I'll find a slip in the narrative he weaves (assuming he's scum).

[notachipmunk]

Post #743 was what I see as I guess more of why I'm not scummy, as to why I'm town. I don't have posts that are straight up like give me town cred. I've been playing this game early on more unsure of what is scummy and what is not as, and been trying to understand the game better by reading through old games. You can probably read my lack of vocalness as not super town as some other loud players have been, but that is how I am until I adjust to a new thing, and until I feel like I have a clue of what to look for, and I think I know that better now than I did a few weeks ago. I don't know how to read myself other than why aren't I town - how do I objectively view myself like that? The person who most read me as town was Frog. I'd say read back through his posts if you want a town view on a townie.
I would actually like to see what you think of Reubus' play so far, day by day, and mine as well, since once I focused on your BP claim, you seem focused on me doing that as a scummy thing, and nothing else.

[Reubus Swagrid]

You've played with me Reubus, so if you're town you should know I'm town. The problem I have with you is that you refuse to play ball. You won't give substantial posts with cases against me and notachipmunk nor are you willing to point out why I should town read you.

Notachipmunk's post was skewed and appears to have been made with a pre-set agenda, but at least she is engaging. Can you do the same?

nor are you willing to point out why I should town read you.

Well I would've liked to imagine that lynching pam and the way that pam was lynched makes me seem more town, of course that doesn't clear me with absolute certainty, only if occams razor suffices does that earn me any town cred. I've never played scum for the record so imma self meta here and say that if I were scum in my first scum game I wouldn't bus my scum partner D1.

[Reubus Swagrid]

Yes; scum partners frequently vote for each other in RVS or shortly after RVS. Reubus' vote was super early and from my perspective (since I know for sure I am indeed 1-shot BP as I've claimed), that

might

be distancing. Once literallypam moved into obvscum territory, Reubus had no safe opportunity to jump off the wagon unless I did so first, since I was the one who was pushing the case hard and refusing to relent. That by itself doesn't make him scum, but it does make one thing fairly clear: Between Reubus and myself, I'm the only one you have to assume intentionally bused a partner on day one if you posit me as scum. Reubus could have simply been doing some distancing and got stuck on the wagon with no safe opportunity to jump off.

I mean ... if Reubus had jumped off the wagon at some point once I was convinced pam was scum and expressed my confidence, and then pam flipped scum, how would Reubus getting off the wagon appear to you? It would look pretty bad right?


As for #766

Just temporarily accept the following premise:

1.) I have been honest with my BP claim and am therefore town.


That means I know one of you is town and one of you is scum. If you both accept that my claim is true, then both of you have to make a case against each other and show why I should town read you, because ultimately my vote will be the deciding factor and determine who wins.

The problem is that you don't accept the premise that my claim is true, which is totally your prerogative. If you did/do accept the premise; however, and if you are town, then you would automatically know the other player is scum, and so starting from that premise and going to find evidence is logical and rational in that case, whereas it is almost never a good idea to use that approach in mafia when you aren't sure. The problem with how you evaluated me is that you didn't look at the evidence and let it tell you whether I'm telling the truth or not. You started with the premise that I'm scum and you quoted only things you could interpret to support that hypothesis. You also left out things that couldn't be used to make it look like I am scum but do give weight to me being honest. You also chose deliberately to interpret similar evidence differently in my case than in Reubus' case.


You also haven't explained why I should believe you are town. One thing that's weighing in your favor is that you are at least engaging. Reubus is dodging and I'm not sure why. It's not that many posts, so Occam's razor suggests he's trying to avoid doing what I asked because he's afraid I'll find a slip in the narrative he weaves (assuming he's scum).

I accept your claim and pray that you haven't conned me, essentially my play today revolves around weather I accept it or not so this is the road I'll be going down.

VOTE: notachipmunk

[notachipmunk]

Anddd Drixx is gonna log on and be able to hammer for gg. ugh why Reubus whyyyyy? Unless you're scum then still ugh but at least the game won't be over yet.

[Reubus Swagrid]

Anddd Drixx is gonna log on and be able to hammer for gg. ugh why Reubus whyyyyy? Unless you're scum then still ugh but at least the game won't be over yet.

It was either or for me. I can't really rationalize why one of you is more scummy than the other, I know, poor on my behalf.

[Drixx]

It's on me and I absolutely hate being in this position. Both of you have posted things which set off red flags today. I hate the idea of "gut" because I don't believe that it is anything more than the subconscious mind picking up on something, and I feel like any "gut" read should be able to be backed up with rational/logical reasoning.

That said ... I'm going to go with my gut and hope it's the right call.

VOTE: notachipmunk

Please don't leave us hanging whomever is scum. If you won, just tell us. If you lost, don't leave us hanging in suspense. Any way you slice it ... whichever of you is scum played well enough that I don't at all feel confident.

[Drixx]

Okay Reubus; I know you're here ... so did we just win, or are you a scumbutt?