In post 740, Billy Pilgrim wrote:Final reads list is very similar to 424
Me, Kanna, and Guilty were town in both
Skitt stayed null
Uncrowned and Mena were mixed in the 424 post. Moved uncrowned to null and Mena to scum
The most interesting part of this is that Map and Non flipped places. Map went from town to scum. Non went from scum to town.
Now the question is whether hes the kind of player that won't comment on his partner, or whether hes the type of player that would and then determining where hed put his partner right before a flip.
If hes the type of player that wouldnt comment on his partner than Skitt is the one we need to look at. Like I said earlier, I think Skitt is probably town. I dont see why she ends the day off a wagon.
So I think he probably commented on his partner. And since he defended both me and Guilty, I think hes more likely to scumread his partner right before a flip than townread them.
So UNVOTE: Non
That leaves me between Mena and Map. Now, given how hard Mena drove the wagon yesterday I think it's unlikely to be him. He even hopped off than hopped back on. If hes bussing for town cred that play doesnt make sense. So I'm going with Map.
VOTE: Map
I read this about 4 times and i dont entirely understand this logic ^
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:28 am
by Uncrowned
Don't really get your positioning of me, Skit. The idea of me bussing in that situation doesn't make sense to me. Could you explain your thoughts a bit more?
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:29 am
by Uncrowned
Honestly don't really get the Map placement either. Why would he be so early on a wagon like that? Seems like way more risk than reward to me if he were scum.
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:30 am
by Uncrowned
Also wasn't skit V/LA while the wagon was going on or am I mistaken?
Tyty
Doing better today, i guess, still not awesome tho
{You}
{Kanna}
{Non}
{Uncrowned/map wolf}
{Billy}
Can you explain the logic of this to me pls?
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:38 am
by Menalque
I’m still weighing up mass claim for today, I need to think more about the advantages/disadvantages of letting it run another day
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:39 am
by Menalque
Like my PoE is small enough that I think with a claim in the correct place this is GG today with mass claim
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:40 am
by skitter30
Because i tr everyone else more
Reads are more based off of like general tone and how much i like the things various players are saying as i read through
I havent had a chance to reread eod yet (i dont read overnight in general), i'm planning on doing so to look at the wagonomics of how the lynch went down, once i do so i will get back to you ^
(Realistically whether that happens today or tomorrow will depend on how bored i am at work today / how much free time i have)
I was around the first time the wagon happened, didnt like it, and was vla as the lynch wagon happened
Pedit @uncrowned
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:40 am
by Menalque
But if PRs aren’t in my PoE then it doesn’t really help that much and if we’re in a 1 PR situation it rly doesn’t help
Tyty
Doing better today, i guess, still not awesome tho
{You}
{Kanna}
{Non}
{Uncrowned/map wolf}
{Billy}
Can you explain the logic of this to me pls?
I dont think you start a lolbus on your partner day1 in a newbie
Kanna is just like still obvnewbtown on tone
Non probably was a cw
Uncrowned/map wolf are more poe than anything else
Billy doesnt look great given the ggj flip
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:42 am
by skitter30
In post 744, skitter30 wrote:I think that if we can get 2 clears/results today we should probably be claiming
Otherwise not.
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:44 am
by Menalque
I think you’re probably scum, skitt
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:45 am
by Menalque
Willing to put my PoE now, which is exactly (skitt, billy)
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:45 am
by skitter30
I'm not, we can talk about it tho
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:47 am
by Menalque
I feel like you tried in quite a subtle way to discourage me from lynching gbj while not wanting to be seen to hard defend him which I think fits with you not being likely to hard bus your teammate if a CW was an viable lynch, but I also don’t think you’d lolhammer a CW because then we’d lynch gbj D2 and you D3
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:49 am
by Menalque
I also think you were actively and consistently pushing other alternatives to gbj, and going after someone I think is now obvtown (uncrowned) and who you’re still PoEing as scum when I just don’t think there’s anyway he’s scum
And I think your main motivation to do that or to ignore the ways in which his play is obviously towny is that if we flipped billy today and he wss town you’d need to have a preexisting narrative and discredit strong town slots to stand a chance of not being the next lynch by PoE
I also think your white knighting of Kanna could very well be you pocketing her
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:51 am
by Menalque
I also think that it’s just to correct to lynch you first out of the pool because I think scum is v v v probably between the two of you and I think that if we lynch you first and you flip town then we’re golden and it’s just billy
But if you’re scum and billy is town then lynching him lets you kill me and take your chances against the newbies who are left where I think you’d have the best possible odds of pulling out a win from here
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:52 am
by Menalque
This sort of reminds me of 1951 only I think billy is potentially being set as the D2 mislynch for bad associatives
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:52 am
by skitter30
No, i was discouraging you from lynching ggj because at the time i was suspicous of how the wagon formed and didnt agree with the reasons people were scumreading him
Obviously i was wrong but i didnt know that at the time. There's an approximately 0% chance i would have interacted with my partner that way yesterday knowing how he was perceived, given that i know quite well how *i* would be perceived if he flipped
Also if i'm scum with ggj, and you're stuck on ggj/billy, i spend ages arguing against the preflip because ....
Pedit give me a minute
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:53 am
by Non lmh
I have a guilty on skit
don't cc me pls
kbye
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:54 am
by Non lmh
still wanna hammer.
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:55 am
by Menalque
What role are you claiming non?
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:57 am
by skitter30
In post 765, Menalque wrote:I also think you were actively and consistently pushing other alternatives to gbj, and going after someone I think is now obvtown (uncrowned) and who you’re still PoEing as scum when I just don’t think there’s anyway he’s scum
And I think your main motivation to do that or to ignore the ways in which his play is obviously towny is that if we flipped billy today and he wss town you’d need to have a preexisting narrative and discredit strong town slots to stand a chance of not being the next lynch by PoE
I also think your white knighting of Kanna could very well be you pocketing her
I dont try to protect partners as scum if i think there's a chance it'll blow up in my face
I dont know why you think uncrowned is obvtown. what do you think i'm ignoring?
Kanna is like obvtown on tone, and i was wk'ing her yesterday because a lot of people werent seeing it and she was on the receiving end of a lot of pushes i dont think she deserved. No, i was not trying to pocket her
In post 766, Menalque wrote:I also think that it’s just to correct to lynch you first out of the pool because I think scum is v v v probably between the two of you and I think that if we lynch you first and you flip town then we’re golden and it’s just billy
But if you’re scum and billy is town then lynching him lets you kill me and take your chances against the newbies who are left where I think you’d have the best possible odds of pulling out a win from here
Yeah i can understand this from your pov
I do think billy is prob the last scum. If we want to lynch me first today i want to do this right and make sure that we develop the best plan we can to make sure we get scum in the next two lynches that we have tho.