Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:48 pm**

In post 741, ObviousScum wrote:so theory is scum double killed emps? Or tested on me? Or gl is scum?

where u at ico?

in the process of rereading and trying to solve

ObvScum can you try and make sense of all night actions? How likely is the % that GL is just scum, and used the scum NK on emps?

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:50 pm**

Ok so the way I feel about GL's post opening up both me and Karnage as the lynch is that GL is scum, presenting 2 cases to the rest of the game and hoping of those cases is gonna stick and induce a vote, which is enough to win him the game

There's no real conclusion being drawn from his own cases, leaving it open to whatever we wanna make of it. Know what I mean? It's like GL tried to find scummy stuff in our ISO, but not really scumhunting.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:52 pm**

it's not impossible

another possibility is n1 george shot me and you saved me and then scum double killed with GL n2

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:54 pm**

in your theory amrun was the vig

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:55 pm**

In post 598, GuiltyLion wrote:alright I'm caught up, but I'm about to do a bunch more

my quick preliminary thoughts so far are:
1) I still generally think George is scum and I'm not sure why we're looking at Obv/Icon first over George
2) I messaged Datisi a few days ago asking whether the Nurse would flip as Doc if they died N1 and their answer was Nurse always flips as Nurse. so somebody is 100% lying about being a doctor and I'd really like them to claim explicitly in case that gives us useful night action info or in case we're barking up the wrong tree

In post 610, GuiltyLion wrote:okay so actually as I'm sitting down and thinking about this more my reads are kinda all in flux

questions I'm thinking about - if George isn't scum, then scum might be just waiting for me to force the issue and then they can tag along later when it's deadline and they won't fall under scrutiny. I've tossed out George's name as a suspect several times now and nobody is biting at that, which makes me think George might be town and designated lynchbait

I'm also not sure I buy that emps townreads me to this degree? like I don't think I've been super especially over the top townie so far this game

I definitely don't think Obv/Karnage are a team. and I don't really think Ico is scum.

so that leaves me with:
emps/Obv could be a team
George/Obv or George/Karnage could be teams I guess

In post 614, GuiltyLion wrote:what about a Karnage/emps team, could that fit

In post 616, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm not making a case yet chill

I'm trying to figure out who's working together and what scum agenda every player's votes and pushes could be serving right now

you're kinda my guess at Nurse so I didn't think you were scum but associatives between Obv don't really make him scum with a lot of people I think. I'm starting to think emps is a decent bet for a deep wolf

In post 685, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 683, Karnage wrote:UNVOTE:

My GL town read was built on the fact I thought HE was actually the nurse
what made you think I was the nurse?

regardless, I am not sure Karnage does/thinks to say this as scum

I'm operating under a Chemist/Emps team prediction right now.

and Obv being the Nurse makes sense why everyone was assuming I was a vig

In post 721, GuiltyLion wrote:I targeted emps, so I believe I'm definitely the Quack Doctor

However, all of this does point to a GL who scumread chem, and thought emps was a good chance for being partner. GL already thought he could be the quack doc, so he targeted his scumread emps, who died. It makes sense for town!GL to do that. I don't think there's a huge chance scum actually targeted emps.
MUCH more likely that scum targeted obvscum. So I probably protected the nurse.

rn i'm more comfortable with voting Karnage over GL

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:57 pm**

N1:

Hectic

targets Noni
Noni targets

emps

targets

George

targets

ObviousScum

targets Iconeum
Iconeum targets

ObviousScum

*not the plan*
GuiltyLion targets

Amrun

targets

Hectic

n2:
ObviousScum targets no one
GuiltyLion targets

emps

Iconeum targets

ObviousScum

Karnage targets

Obviousscum

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:57 pm**

Like, my most basic down to earth read right now is

Scum probs don't target emps, GL most likely vig who shot emps (who he previously scumread together with chem who flipped scum). It's a very believable trajectory, making Karnage scum by default. Scum!Karnage also doesn't have to lie right now about having targeted obvscum

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:00 pm**

Emps was not Weak Doctor
ObviousScum is Nurse
GuiltyLion cannot be CPRDoctor

Amrun was likely either vig or CPRDoctor, so Amrun was probably the CPRDoctor
GuiltyLion is likely either vig or goon, but if not vig, who is vig?

1 Doctor
1 Weak Doctor
1 CPR Doctor
1 Paranoid Doctor
1 Quack Doctor
1 Naive Doctor
1 Nurse
2 Mafia Goons

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:03 pm**

Well I'm def not vig, unless I'm just shamelesly lying about my targets

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:03 pm**

Lynch karnage, GL targets you, I target GL, you target no one (if town)?

only bad times if I inherited JK but I can also no action if karnage flips green idk

not sure if there's anyway to determine who the JK is or if jk is dead

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:04 pm**

I could theoretically be vig if you're JK

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:06 pm**

what about numbers

3v1

if we (mis)lynch Karnage, 2v1 going into night, we both target GL and see what happens. Chance of you being the vig kills him, if not that I have a decent chance of blocking him, come tomorrow 2v1 again and we lynch GL?

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:06 pm**

that's like worst case contingency plan, don't get me wrong

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:08 pm**

obscum what are your own reads rn?

not taking action resolution into account?

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:19 pm**

In post 262, Non lmh wrote:(emps/hec/lion)townblock for me rn
(amrun/icon/obum)null
(jake,george)scum, maybe

In post 263, Non lmh wrote:VOTE: george

In post 264, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
Non lmh wrote:(emps/hec/lion)townblock for me rn
(amrun/icon/obum)null
(jake,george)scum, maybe
In post 263, Non lmh wrote:VOTE: george
I would like an explanation

In post 266, GuiltyLion wrote:I agree with Amrun's posts on page 10
VOTE: GeorgeBailey

George last time we played you were able to turn on the obvtown when you needed to, I haven't seen that yet this game.

In post 273, ObviousScum wrote:Boring gamestate

VOTE: george

l-1 let's yeet it bois

I'm vigging Amrun tonight say your target when you hammer okaay?

In post 277, Iconeum wrote:intend to hammer

In post 360, Non lmh wrote:UNVOTE:

In post 364, Non lmh wrote:I like Jake, not scum IMO

This entire trajectory of non imh is pretty damning. Votes George very early on the wagon, doesn't sort anything in it, and when the heat picks up and the lynch might seriously happen he unvotes without any serious events that might have changed his mind on his 'scumread'.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:20 pm**

I still think Karnage's case on me was like extremely shitty even if his tone every now and then seems vaguely townie

you were basically MIA for most of the game and then came in with a nice bus

GL wanted george all of day 1 which would be +risky if he got him, although he didn't sell george suuuuper hard. still risk of getting eaten by vig is like 1/6 so idk

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:21 pm**

In post 494, Karnage wrote:
In post 456, ObviousScum wrote:
In post 450, Datisi wrote:GeogreBailey
mod please stop torturing my ocd

VOTE: George

if he flips town, GL you should target karnage I think
Obv scum reads George, ok
In post 476, ObviousScum wrote:UNVOTE:

momentary doubts about george as ever

idk icon isn't a bad pick for scum
abracadbra, the scum read has disappeared!
In post 487, ObviousScum wrote:VOTE: iconeum
Now he's voting with his old scum read?
In post 488, emps wrote:ehhh i dont like this ico wagon

In post 489, ObviousScum wrote:is ico town?
Funny feeling another scum read is about to vanish into thin air

VOTE: obvscum

wanna bet his vote magically appears on me before long?

slot that wrote this post can die every time imo

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:22 pm**

if somehow we're supposed to figure out that GL being vig is impossible I don't know how

I guess I coulda tried to doc emps last night but *shrug* if you're JK it wouldn't have done anything anyway

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm**

i could just be the weak doc, so if we lynch karnage and game goes on, i will die targeting GL

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:24 pm**

meh

++odds of non imh/karnage being the last scum and that's game if you ask me

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:25 pm**

and if i'm wrong, i will gamble tonight with my night action on GL

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:25 pm**

but if you're JK you would keep the game going lol

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:25 pm**

do I no action again or do I target GL if karnage flips town?

:thinking

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:28 pm**

In post 771, ObviousScum wrote:but if you're JK you would keep the game going lol

it's literally a coinflip that I win the game or lose the game at that point, but I will target GL anyway I guess.

It would take a lot of convincing on Karnage's behalf to talk me out of voting him today however.
GL's trajectory is very believable, Obvscum is the IC, I know i'm town.

And in the world where this is wrong, and GL is scum, there is still a chance to win by targeting GL at night.

Posted: **Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:29 pm**

In post 772, ObviousScum wrote:do I no action again or do I target GL if karnage flips town?

:thinking

we both target him
you could be a vig, and that wins the game if you hit GL
I target him as well, if there's a no kill we have a guilty, and if i'm the weak doc I will die lol but maybe you have won by then

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