Mafiascum.net

In post 745, GuiltyLion wrote:I've also been revisiting these posts from 72 immediately after my 218, particularly these sections

In post 234, 72offsuit wrote: 4. Voting a replacing out/AFK player feels like a waste of a vote, and basically suiting scum agenda its not like pi can reply.
Even in getting a reply from the replacement here, its very easy for !scumSera to read the thread and take the path thats best suits scumagenda, as they are not tied to their predecessors "reads"

Voting/FoSing a lurker in !townPi/now-Sera (easy mislynch target), as well as a "competent" player in myself (removal of a potential threat), would certainly suit !scumagenda.
Obviously that depends on pi/Sera's alignment. [not that I;m a particularly good player or anything, but I do ahave a couple of games under my belt]

This first part seems to be meant to shade my pressure on the pi slot and also say that it's bad because !scumSera could handle my pressure? I hadn't caught this before but it's a bit weird that 72 thinks my vote is bad because scum will be able to handle it - it still means I'm voting scum.

There's also a hedge on Sera throughout, and a significant portion of the rest of 234 (too much to quote but I suggest going back to the post) is meant to discredit my townreads on TTJT and UNOwen, I suspect potentially as a means of distraction on the pii/Sera/Mini vote if you're town UNOwen.

In post 236, 72offsuit wrote:Overall gamestate-wise, Pii lurking and being replaced and DP being on VLA has resulted in the same (relatively) few people posting.

Uno is still on IVD (the leading wagon), who Uno originally voted for in RVS, which is telling, I think, given Uno is also a leading wagon.

My preferred lynchpool is {TTJT , Uno}

As it stands, I wouldn't lose sleep over lynching pi/Sera if it comes to it.

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

These things don't look so bad in ISO as associatives when uncertain about 72's slot, but if I assume that he's scum, I think it points to pi/Sera over UNOwen.

In post 440, GuiltyLion wrote:

In post 435, 72offsuit wrote:I'm wondering why !scum TTJT wouldnt vote for mini

In post 437, 72offsuit wrote:Why would they both vote for Walter, when its unlikely walter will be lynched?

eh actually that's a fair point

I think TTJT's vote for Walter doesn't make a lot of sense in general to me. Like you said, it's unlikely Walter will be lynched. I didn't vibe with the case, I think TTJT just summarized a lot of Walter's play but didn't actually do the legwork of why he thinks Walter is scum outside of "afraid to lead wagons". And I got the sense TTJT is avoiding the DoctorPepper wagon. That's why I thought the associative made sense, but it is a good question why scum!TTJT doesn't just vote Mini there.

In post 441, GuiltyLion wrote:

In post 352, DoctorPepper wrote:Anyone care to explain TTJT as scum? I'm kinda town reading their posts because the UNOwen analysis makes sense to me

yeh I guess this is also unlikely from scum!DocPep with scum!TTJT

VOTE: Doctor Pepper

In post 576, GuiltyLion wrote:

In post 559, TheThirteenthJT wrote:It makes no sense for them to drive a lunch at this point if they know their target will flip town due to the backlash that would fall.

How do you possibly say this and then decide to vote 72 when he was the one most vocal about driving a lynch today

that's too much cognitive dissonance for me to ignore at this point
VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

DoctorPepper - if you are town, please revisit the point about 72

steering the lynch away from TTJT and onto you

and why that's scum-motivated. I think if you're town, you're letting your frustration at being pushed for activity blind you to the fact that there's really no incentive to do that if he's scum, unless he's exactly partnered with TTJT.

In post 689, GuiltyLion wrote:

In post 663, Ydrasse wrote:also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

if jt is scum i don't know what motivation a scum 72 has to hammer his partner though or even switch wagons like that when he's under a lot of scrutiny because dp is going to still go after him the next day.

In post 681, UNOwen wrote:If JT isn't trolling then the partner is probably GuiltyLion.

IMO both these twilight shades were ugly

I would like both of you to explain why exactly you think scum!GL and scum!72 have any kind of need to coordinate a quickhammer there. I know it may not mean much coming from me, but I believe scum quickhammers on D1 are tremendously bad play unless you're absolutely sure you've got the PR (even then, it's a gamble that can easily sink you), and I really don't see how you think TTJT was such an urgent need to remove that our hypothetical team would need to trash my good standing as well as 72's in order to secure THAT specific D1 mislynch.

In post 682, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 651, Ydrasse wrote:i feel that dp had a lot more to lose from thunderdoming it out with 72 in this situation and i think that 72's response of "oh we can work this out you might not be scum" feels scummier than dp's conviction that 72 is scum. i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

I’m wondering when you felt this because you voted for DoctorPepper. Whether it was before or after you voted for him doesn’t change anything.

This is also a really good question that I want Ydrasse to answer.

VOTE: 72offsuit

In post 748, UNOwen wrote:

In post 745, GuiltyLion wrote: I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I don't think it is as significant as you suggest. Both myself and JT were "scumreads" whereas pi was just a lurker. So there's a logic to the post even if he was faking it. I see what you are saying, that he was keeping pi on the table but out of the limelight. I'm not convinced that is the obvious motivation behind the post.

Not a fan of the vote analysis because it skips over a couple of important points that are not reflected in the vote count:
1) 72 had already unvoted JT by the time Mini joined the wagon
2) His next vote was then against Mini (which clashes with your suggestion above about 72 keeping the slot out of attention)

In post 748, UNOwen wrote:

In post 746, GuiltyLion wrote: I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about

how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread.

Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

I might just be tired but I don't understand what you're saying in the bolded - could you rephrase that?
On the broader theory, yes that is plausible, though it also fits with you as the partner. Once 72 unvoted JT, he changed his pool to {Mini, DrP} and actually voted against Mini in 383. He then switched his vote to DrP in 404, which is after 395 from DrP, the post both you and Italiano interpreted as a pr soft. So that tallies with my idea that he was pr hunting.

I think you've raised some reasonable points but in the end this is the scenario 72-Mini requires: 72 knows his scum partner is not trusted by anyone, very new to the game and liable to be voted out at some point. He decides the best play is to make an attention grabbing push against DoctorPepper even though the lead wagon is a townie. When this counter push meets resistance he recalculates, decides the best he can hope for is to survive to day 2 and quickhammers in the hope that Mini can win the game from there.

I don't believe that. The alternative is that 72 has a well positioned scum partner, who he has confidence can win the game and then it becomes more plausible. The risky play is less risky and the quickhammer calculation is more reasonable (presuming he suspected JT was a pr).

In post 709, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:I believe 72 is scum and I need to reevaluate who the other one could be since jt is dead.

In post 752, Ydrasse wrote: @owen: i don't understand how my stance isn't coherent? DP's presence and content improved as the day goes on but not so much where i am sold on him not being scum. 72's hammer gives me a whole new perspective on their 1v1. i don't see these two things as exclusive concepts, i guess?

maybe it's the choice of saying "townier and townier" because that probably does imply a certain amount of strength to it? post-hammer i was just trying to type out my thoughts then and there so the thread didn't get locked midway through a post.

In post 765, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

In post 770, DoctorPepper wrote:I'm already voting 72.

In post 771, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 770, DoctorPepper wrote:I'm already voting 72.

Yup I know. That’s why I was asking GuiltyLion.

In post 767, UNOwen wrote:

In post 765, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

What do you think of my argument about why 72-Mini is an unlikely scum team?

In post 769, ItalianoVD wrote:Real quick. GuiltyLion you pulled your vote away from 72 early on because you said you didn’t want him to self hammer. DoctorPepper said the same thing. Are you planning on voting for 72 or do you have someone else you want to lynch?