Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:07 am
Page 31 of 47
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:37 am
I think we have a mislaunch
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:45 am
so do you think it's more likely that kerset's lying or that there is a bulletproof mafia?
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:52 am
Possibilities ranked:
1) kerset is BP backup but there's no BP, it's a red herring
2) kerset is scum lying
3) kerset is traitor signalling to scum
4) kerset is BP and the town BP won't out
5) kerset is BP and the scum have a BP
Maybe 5 should be higher since there is a vig? IDK. The more I thought about this yesterday the more I realized there were a lot of options that all lead back to null.
Kerset would be an OK launch because theres wifom there now and the traitor/scum possibility is there, but I want to poke around Blair / midway before I commit
1) kerset is BP backup but there's no BP, it's a red herring
2) kerset is scum lying
3) kerset is traitor signalling to scum
4) kerset is BP and the town BP won't out
5) kerset is BP and the scum have a BP
Maybe 5 should be higher since there is a vig? IDK. The more I thought about this yesterday the more I realized there were a lot of options that all lead back to null.
Kerset would be an OK launch because theres wifom there now and the traitor/scum possibility is there, but I want to poke around Blair / midway before I commit
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:22 am
OK, so help me understand real quick, because setup stuff is not my forte here
Is Kerset role claiming? Both things listed seem to both be modifiers and not roles? Or would the role look like "If someone who is bulletproof dies, you become bulletproof"
If I'm following the logic correctly, then the argument is that Bulletproof backup -> Bulletproof role -> Traitor -> 2 town, 1 traitor, 1 mafia left if we get it wrong today -> mafia win if we get it wrong today? Making sure I'm understanding why we think we're in LyLo
And puppy seems to be saying that it's likely 1 may not imply 2 (in other words, bulletproof backup may not mean bulletproof role), but I'm also unsure why 2 implies 3 (that the bulletproof role means it's a traitor)?
Is Kerset role claiming? Both things listed seem to both be modifiers and not roles? Or would the role look like "If someone who is bulletproof dies, you become bulletproof"
If I'm following the logic correctly, then the argument is that Bulletproof backup -> Bulletproof role -> Traitor -> 2 town, 1 traitor, 1 mafia left if we get it wrong today -> mafia win if we get it wrong today? Making sure I'm understanding why we think we're in LyLo
And puppy seems to be saying that it's likely 1 may not imply 2 (in other words, bulletproof backup may not mean bulletproof role), but I'm also unsure why 2 implies 3 (that the bulletproof role means it's a traitor)?
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:38 am
"Backup" is a role. Bulletproof backup is a specific claim, and wouldn't be combined with any other action
They're separate possibilities, not logical 1) implies -> 2) -> 3). Ranked from most likely to least likely, though actually 5) "scum has a BP" seems a little likelier to me now since it would be a good way to balance a big (especially in a small game)
I think now there is no traitor, I think this setup would make a lot of sense:
* Gunsmith
* Vig
* 6 VT
* 1 BP maf
* Mafia goon
I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either
They're separate possibilities, not logical 1) implies -> 2) -> 3). Ranked from most likely to least likely, though actually 5) "scum has a BP" seems a little likelier to me now since it would be a good way to balance a big (especially in a small game)
I think now there is no traitor, I think this setup would make a lot of sense:
* Gunsmith
* Vig
* 6 VT
* 1 BP maf
* Mafia goon
I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:40 am
Given all that I think traitor is unlikely, so I don't think it's LYLO and we have a mislaunch. If we accept r2r as clear that's 4 players and 2 launches, minus yourself
So if I had to pick 2/3 of Blair/kerset/midway. Well I think it depends on Blair coming in and convincing me town. RN I'm thinking midway
So if I had to pick 2/3 of Blair/kerset/midway. Well I think it depends on Blair coming in and convincing me town. RN I'm thinking midway
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:51 am
Let me put this one other way
Kerset is either scum or town
If scum, it makes more sense for there to not be a traitor. 2 scum + traitor is a lot of power for town to fight. Gunsmith has a guilty on the vig already, the setup is pretty balanced without a traitor
If town, it makes more sense to not have a traitor. If kerset is telling the truth the BP backup is either a red herring, or scum have a BP, which in either case would be balanced without a traitor
Kerset is either scum or town
If scum, it makes more sense for there to not be a traitor. 2 scum + traitor is a lot of power for town to fight. Gunsmith has a guilty on the vig already, the setup is pretty balanced without a traitor
If town, it makes more sense to not have a traitor. If kerset is telling the truth the BP backup is either a red herring, or scum have a BP, which in either case would be balanced without a traitor
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:59 am
Blair was prodded.
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:52 am
It is quite uncommon for goon to have vest. If mod wants to give goon protection form vig then they are more likely to add hider or commute ability. I am pretty sure that reviewer like northsidegal would encourage skill-based solution there.
Vest is mostly associated with traitors, because possibility of mafia nightkilling their own member creates huge swing and something bold simply has to be added to prevent that.
Vest is mostly associated with traitors, because possibility of mafia nightkilling their own member creates huge swing and something bold simply has to be added to prevent that.
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:42 am
VOTE: Blair
yeah, this is probably the way to go. Kerset sounds townie and puppy has been putting in lots of effort.
yeah, this is probably the way to go. Kerset sounds townie and puppy has been putting in lots of effort.
Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:44 pm
Thinking about the idea that Kerset is lying, what would scum's motivation would be to make a claim that added urgency to the town (by saying that we're in lylo) and was also unverifiable, making people skeptical of you and your claim?
Seems like it'd be overplaying for no reason
Seems like it'd be overplaying for no reason
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:12 am
Seeking a replacement for Blair.
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:49 am
dun DUN DUUUUUUUNNNNNNN
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:38 am
Fidget replaces Blair.
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:42 am
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:16 pm
Hiya!
I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?
I assume this isn't Xylo from one scum already being down, unless the setup is 7v3 somehow (traitor that doesnt count for scum wincon?). My goal is to reread the entire game so i will get back to you all
I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?
I assume this isn't Xylo from one scum already being down, unless the setup is 7v3 somehow (traitor that doesnt count for scum wincon?). My goal is to reread the entire game so i will get back to you all
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:58 pm
Hello!
We have not really figured why 10 instead of 9 yet, but I'm 50% sure you are scum
We have not really figured why 10 instead of 9 yet, but I'm 50% sure you are scum
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:07 pm
One reason could be the fact that vig shot turns it back to odd. The other is potential traitor existence.In post 766, Fidget wrote:I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:12 pm
why would a traitor mean even numbers?
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:36 pm
It doesn't mean even number. It means 10 rather then 9.
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:53 pm
kk finished my reread. I got lazy towards the end but it went alright
Ready2rock
midwaybear
-
CLAP
Kerset
I will be considering reversing CLAP and Kerset because i have not really thought about the claims too much yet.
So my first inclinations are.. hm.. either CLAP is scum and the kill on Nosferatu was more or less framing BM (since he's townreading Blair, Blair was never the miselim he's going for here). In fact, Blair probably was already going to be elimed on her own, so may as well make BM look worse as well
BM/Kerset is just scum and the kill is much more straightforward. Nosferatu was completely tunneled on them.
Ready2rock and Midway do not appear to be scum to me.
The strongest thing I'm feeling right now is either Kerset or CLAP are scum. They both share this high townread on my slot. Why? I thought midway was the towniest. I see CLAP has midway second town, but Kerset says midway is highest likelihood scum.
Spoiler: quick opinion on each slot
Spoiler: stream of consciousness notes
Town
Ready2rock
midwaybear
-
CLAP
Kerset
Not Town
I will be considering reversing CLAP and Kerset because i have not really thought about the claims too much yet.
So my first inclinations are.. hm.. either CLAP is scum and the kill on Nosferatu was more or less framing BM (since he's townreading Blair, Blair was never the miselim he's going for here). In fact, Blair probably was already going to be elimed on her own, so may as well make BM look worse as well
BM/Kerset is just scum and the kill is much more straightforward. Nosferatu was completely tunneled on them.
Ready2rock and Midway do not appear to be scum to me.
The strongest thing I'm feeling right now is either Kerset or CLAP are scum. They both share this high townread on my slot. Why? I thought midway was the towniest. I see CLAP has midway second town, but Kerset says midway is highest likelihood scum.
What do you think of midway-Ydrasse's interactions?In post 719, Kerset wrote:I think that one of the mafia members is midway. He lacks of commitment to his own leads. Technically he picked Ydrasse to be his target but his whole agenda was only about pursuing dunn at the time and lynching him. Ydr is only mentioned in terms of receiving credit for his eventual flip.
In post 710, CantHateAPuppy wrote:this is where im thinking right now
scum > kerset > r2r > midway > blair
Why do/did you have Blair as your strongest town? Apologies if im missing itIn post 717, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Awesome. Which shot was yours?
Kerset > Blair > midway
Avengers assemble!!!!??!! !!!
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:11 pm
Yup this makes no fuckin sense. Scum loses a player in an 8v2, and gets extra punished for it by a town PR inheriting a power?In post 755, CantHateAPuppy wrote:I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either
Unless, maybe we're dealing with a traitor..? That would make it 7v3 and kind of shitty for town if we only got the 2 PRs. Let's say Kerset is town and there's a BP traitor
Town Gunsmith
Town One-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie
Mafia One-shot Bulletproof Traitor
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
The gunsmith still kind of sucks. He has a false innocent result and a false guilty.
I can see two scenarios:
Kerset is a scum power role (doesnt have to be bulletproof) and this is his fakeclaim gambit in order to push a false traitor narrative. He could have thought of this over the night phase.
Kerset is a town backup bulletproof, and we're dealing with a traitor/goon combo? It still feels far-fetched to me. If redrock and midway are town, I can't even fit two scum in. Unless midwaybear's bus on Ydrasse was planned out in some way?
Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:11 pm
I'm takin a nap. There will be plenty of time to seek out the truth tomorrow.
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:11 am
You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.