MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:35 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 749, DrippingGoofball wrote:MathBlade you are ignoring my request to explain how nom claiming miller on day 2 when I obv'd a guilty result fit with the alignments you are suggesting.
I am not ignoring it I just find it wholly irrelevant.

If you had already planned for nom to die a bad claim works wonders.

If Nom is scum and you guiltied him it’s a panick response.

It’s literally a circular logic question. If it was planned the reaction was. If it wasn’t it wasn’t. It’s a meaningless tautology.
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:42 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 742, WhemeStar wrote:Can people explain why they townread xios
I don't.
Show
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:45 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@Math: this could be my only chance to catch someone in a lie. Alternatively it should lock everybody to their claimed flavour, so it effectively refuses any additional fake flavours if requested. I reread the rules specifically for that part.

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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:48 pm

Post by Almost50 »

And to be precise, the mod said additional FAKE claims can be provided upon request. One cannot fake claim after they had already true claimed. So either lock oneself for the true flavour or try to fake now and risk being caught in a lie (plus they can't change it at their convenience later in even if they faked and they weren't the one I was informed about)

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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:51 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Finally, half of us have already claimed their roles or at least crumbed them. Let's start with dgb, nom, toog & t3

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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 324, T3 wrote:
DON'T LIMB FLEA LIFE STUFF IS NAI THIS WAGON IS SCUM MOTIVATED
Doing random ISOs and this probably hints T3 is town

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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:32 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I fail to see how this helps town A50.

Let’s assume your claim is true that you know a certain flavor is in the game.
Unless you know that a certain flavor is of a certain alignment I don’t see how this benefits town.

Without a scum flip it would be hard to tell if a flavor means anything or not. Scum on the other hand know what is and isn’t relevant based on being able to ask for fake claims.

Since scum could ask for fake claims, they could easily just “please give me a fake claim” and get it and then use that.

If so you gain nothing new. I fail to see what lie you’d catch someone in. You’d need an informed + alignment something I just don’t buy
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:34 pm

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Meanwhile we would just give scum all of our flavors. Granted it could be meaningless but it could help them a lot so I would vote no but I kinda wanna hear what Titus thinks and her reaction because of D1.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:48 pm

Post by Almost50 »


5. While flavor doesn't necessarily correspond to alignment, scum have been offered additional fake claims and the ability to request ones (to match a specific role) during the game.


See this? Scum can request fake
flavor
to match a specific role.

Fake what? Fake
flavor
. What's that again? Fake flavor. How do you spell that? Eff ell avor

My role would be bloody meaningless if there weren't fake flavours. My role is meant to either confirm some isn't lying or that someone is indeed lying. This why I accept both nom & DGB's claims as each of us three should confirm exactly one player. Not 2, not 3.. just ONE.

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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:59 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 727, Ircher wrote:
Day 2 VC #6DrippingGoofball (0):
Xlos (1): WhemeStar ()
Jake the Wolfie (1): Almost50 ()
MathBlade (1): Galron ()
Titus (0):
nomnomnom (4) (F-2): DrippingGoofball (), Titus (), Toogeloo (), T3 ()


Not Voting (4): MathBlade, Xlos (), Jake the Wolfie (), nomnomnom ()


With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to fade a player.

DeadlinesThis phase will end no earlier than Friday, July 2, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-02 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Sunday, July 11, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-11 21:45:00).

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Last edited by Ircher on Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:02 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I do. And if I were scum (which I am not) I would know how to damn well exploit what’s written.

I to be frank think your role is meaningless as described. Giving the benefit of the doubt…and go one step further and assume scum always lie and town always truth tells.

Assume all the flavors are claimed and the one you’re looking for isn’t on the list. Congrats! You’ve confirmed scum exist. Coulda told you that without the claims. That gets us nowhere.

Assume all flavors are claimed and the one you’re looking for is claimed. You then either A) stop the claiming to limit damage thus giving scum a place to look or B) continue it to fruition.

I fail to see why this has to happen now. Hell if you’re going that far mass claim would be better than flavor claim.

I see absolutely no benefit at all to confirming an antitown faction exists. Like I just don’t get what you’re asking here.
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:05 pm

Post by T3 »

MathBlade is probably town. Just general helpfulness tbh
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:15 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 761, T3 wrote:MathBlade is probably town. Just general helpfulness tbh
I agree.. very much. You wanna know how much?

VOTE: mathblade

THAT much

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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:18 pm

Post by MathBlade »

That kinda looks like disagreement to me. All I did was state my opinion on this.

I think your suggestion is antitown. I asked Titus for input in case I missed something.

You’re more than welcome to vote me for being an obstinate meanie but that won’t add any value to your hypothesis or turn it into a theorem.

I think your role is effectively a named Townie. And it’s okay those exist in games. If Titus disagrees then I would love to hear why. That’s all.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:21 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Now that I got this out of the way, I will explain for the very last time: I am informed that "a specific something" is the flavor of "a specific someone". I don't want to say whose flavor I am informed of because that tips that specific someone to say the truth about their flavor and tips everyone else that they can lie about theirs.

My info is in the form of "you know that <player name>'s flavor is <specific flavor>.

I am not looking for a needle in the barn. I know what I'm looking for and know from whom I want it.

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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:25 pm

Post by Xlos »

In post 726, MathBlade wrote:Yes. That’s the world I am in yes. If you look at the game linked Yellowstone DGB did the exact same thing with AGamblingPig.
If you look at the second link, with DGB and Muffin DGB said they investigated Muffin and then muffin coasted to end game.

That’s always been my point and I think DGB is a liar. Nom’s is implausible and so is DGB if we take T3 at face value and I think we should.
I just read some of the scumthread in that game cause the game is long, the discussion summarized in
In post 66, DrippingGoofball wrote:We could also do this:

I roleblock AGP
JV claims 1 shot vig on whoever we NK and claims the scumkill didn't go through
I claim to have RB'd AGP
We sacrifice AGP
We are conftown until end game.
(AGP is other scum member here) So I can agree with the idea that DGB has plotted something involving a mass scum roleclaim. I still think both scum are unlikely, but I can see where you are coming from. But, if you really want to flip both of them, doesn't it make more sense to flip DGB first? If you believe they are both scum, then the power role seems more likely to be DGB. nomnomnom has the earlier 'hammer me' posts, and the post positioning gives DGB a better position. The main reason I personally suspect DGB more is the late claim and scummier vibe. Furthermore, nomnomnom's claim of friendly neighbor means that every day we wait, we can become much more certain of his true alignment. I am kind of down to annihilate DGB today. Killing a friendly neighbor claim as soon as we hear it just seems nonsensical. Why am I the only one who thinks this?

Well, if the wagon goes that way, I'll jump on. But I think that scumhunting outside of the pair is still fine since waiting a day gives us much better odds for flipping either of them.
Most recently, I'm getting big pings from Almost50. "Let's all claim now since half of us have already claimed our roles? And let's start with the people who we already know are power roles? " That's a incredibly scummy idea. It's like "town has already messed up a little, so let's go all the way". Especially with the amount of doubt I have on some of the roles that have been claimed. Also, looking at Almost50's iso, he's been on both the MURDERCAT and Flea wagon. He was the push behind MURDERCAT, and he was pretty absurdly confident in a nonsense probability argument. (probability is not the most rigorous subfield of mathematics). He doesn't have that many posts, but every post he does have is somewhat scummy.

Other people on both wagons:
Titus (didn't actually vote for MC, but thought she did in ). I think their ISO is fairly clean, though.
Toogeloo (I'm feeling town on them for now)
nomnomnom (very scummy but again waiting to annihilate them is the best move)
T3 (his votes are really scummy, E-1 for flea and fake hammer for MURDERCAT. Text is convincing, though)

I think that's all of them. Besides this the only major negative feeling I had was on Galron, but reading his ISO didn't feel that bad for some reason. So I think the best wagon is here
VOTE: Almost50
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:35 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Whatever. I still note my objection. Getting you to listen to reason will be more antitown than it’s worth. If Titus agrees let’s go. This just seems very very bad and no upside.

Pedit:
Xlos you seem new. If DGB is scum setting up nom, the traditionally smart play without overwhelming evidence is to always elim the guilty party. Because then if you get an inno you look at the claimed cop hard. That rule generally applies only to cops who have more checks though. I would be down for a DGB elimination but the smarter play strategically is nom. I will have to look up on the wiki. Nom’s claim is also just horrendously bad. Tbh if we had two elims today I wouldn’t feel bad about quick elimming them both but the smarter play is to always just elim the claimed guilty.

The exception to this rule is if there is some plausible way the guilty is not a guilty. This being a theme game it’s possible but not probable. An example that I would refer to is when I was a loyal motion detector ans got a “guilty” on Grendel. Pushed him hard but then realized how it could fall apart and started looking at those wanting to end the day and lurkers and we got actual scum (Titus).

I can also see waiting to see if the FN comes to fruition though. I just don’t think it’s the smart play here. I would compromise on it if we aren’t doing nom but we should probably do nom.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:39 pm

Post by MathBlade »

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12618780

This is the game I am referring to. You don’t let scum off the hook with Ate or “utility” you stop pressuring someone when you believe they are/could be town.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:42 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 766, MathBlade wrote:always just elim the claimed guilty.
And nom has acknowledged that he would be guilty to a cop investigation, so there's that.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 4:01 pm

Post by MathBlade »

That actually doesn’t mean anything unless there is a second cop/rolecop like I think which makes your claim sus as fuck?
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 4:04 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 769, MathBlade wrote:That actually doesn’t mean anything unless there is a second cop/rolecop like I think which makes your claim sus as fuck?
This only makes sense in Opposite Land.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 4:33 pm

Post by MathBlade »

No really. If you’re one shot and nom is fake claiming scum why claim miller? It seems dumb. There’s be no other “cop” checks to protect against. Ergo a second cop check of some kind would be needed to be a Miller to.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 5:17 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

For me it's a combination of policy and too many coincidences that seals nom³.

Policy in the sense that they should have claimed Miller Day 1, and the fact that they probably wouldn't have drawn my roleblock if they hadn't made a big deal about them having an action.

Coincidence overload in the fact that they just so happen to be a Miller that was going to friendly neighbor the 1-shot cop who guilty scanned them, but got roleblocked by me. Like, I'm not a statististics guy, but this is a math based game, and I would love to hear the odds of all that happening.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 5:18 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

I've been skimming over the wall posts btw. You guys need to be bit more concise. My eyes tend to glaze over posts more than a paragraph long.
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 6:00 pm

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 773, Toogeloo wrote:I've been skimming over the wall posts btw. You guys need to be bit more concise. My eyes tend to glaze over posts more than a paragraph long.
Yeah, I'm not really interested in reading an essay every 5 minutes just to play this game.

It's not bad that you guys are wallposting, it's just that (maybe a majority?) of us here aren't particularly interested in wallposts, and will usually skip over any of the points made in there. It's fine to post wallposts as a reference for the future, but not as a regular post.

/psa
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