Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 10:52 am
Because Progo looked like they were softing it with how hard they were chainsawing for fwog yesterday.In post 749, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Why would you think they were masons?
Because Progo looked like they were softing it with how hard they were chainsawing for fwog yesterday.In post 749, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Why would you think they were masons?
In post 401, Frogsterking wrote:I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.
Around this time I thought Progo was softing to meIn post 396, Frogsterking wrote:If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.In post 394, ProgoWoshua wrote:So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?In post 392, Frogsterking wrote:Fair enough: @379
In post 530, fwogcarf wrote:literally the most antitown thing you could doIn post 482, Frogsterking wrote:I'm about to deathtunnel you so if you've had any strong scumreads you've been holding back I suggest you case them now.In post 478, StrangeMatter wrote:I meant my last newbie game.In post 474, Frogsterking wrote:The other game in which you were town?
In post 562, ProgoWoshua wrote:In post 557, AutoDefenestrator wrote:Vanilla townie. Have a good day.Here, Auto is showing acceptance of their own elimination while in E-1. This is a town tell, and I don't think newbie scum would be able to fake that. I'm townreading Auto right now.In post 559, AutoDefenestrator wrote:And my leans remain same. I could've made 10 more posts reiterating them again and again, but oh well.
There's a few hours left in the deadline. Can we still eliminate someone else?
In post 737, ProgoWoshua wrote:UNVOTE: Frogsterking
VOTE: fwogcarf
I agree with ofmercia. I'm willing to eliminate fwog today.
In post 733, fwogcarf wrote:StrangeMatter
seems like i can't dig myself out of this one
good luck everyone
It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.In post 747, fwogcarf wrote:claiming Vanilla Town
Does he not claim pr tho?In post 760, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.
We can always mass claim today and go for a solve i guess. Might be higher winrate.In post 760, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.
This is pretty much WIFOM at it's finest.In post 762, Frogsterking wrote:Does he not claim pr tho?In post 760, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.
After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.
In post 767, NorwegianboyEE wrote:This is pretty much WIFOM at it's finest.In post 762, Frogsterking wrote:Does he not claim pr tho?In post 760, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.
You can say he claims VT because that is what you don't expect scum to do, hence wrongly townread scum. Or he is genuinely town that is just VT.
Can you tell the difference? If not then this is an bad argument to switch off imo.
This would explain why fwog's reaction to being accused was so different between D1 and D2.In post 768, ProgoWoshua wrote:After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.
My PoE at this moment is Frog, fwog and Strange. I too want to hear more from Strange, but with the way things are right now, I want to eliminate either Frog or fwog.
In post 733, fwogcarf wrote:StrangeMatter
seems like i can't dig myself out of this one
good luck everyone
Very wifomy and the tone is completely different from D1:In post 734, fwogcarf wrote:cant even do the fuckin vote right lmfaoIn post 733, fwogcarf wrote:StrangeMatter
seems like i can't dig myself out of this one
good luck everyone
this is the most lost i've been playing a game in a long time because i was so confident on an Auto/??? world and seeing Auto flip town literally made my worldviewing crash down
Strange would be the person i would go for but it's a weak read and it's a gutread
so do with that what you will
This is after I accuse fwog.In post 379, fwogcarf wrote:Hm, no.In post 375, Frogsterking wrote:Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.
Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute
Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.
Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?
Replying to this by the way. Snipped for space of course.In post 771, Frogsterking wrote:Snip