Page 31 of 150
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:32 am
by Ircher
Her read on me, and that's all that really matters.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:33 am
by jjh927
You said reads plural and indicated that you reached this conclusion after reading her entire iso rather than just her stance on you
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:33 am
by Nero Cain
that post does nothing but pour gas on the fire.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:35 am
by Something_Smart
jjh makes me feel like I have no purpose in this game
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:36 am
by Ircher
In post 751, jjh927 wrote:You said reads plural and indicated that you reached this conclusion after reading her entire iso rather than just her stance on you
Semantics, semantics.
I did read her ISO in the sense I glanced through all the posts. Anyway, Roden is town. Vivax is scum.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:37 am
by jjh927
You literally did just come in and say
"Mastina's reads are bad!"
"Well actually I don't mean all of her reads, just her read on me."
Did you know you have a wagon with like 9 people on it and a bunch of the people who aren't on it also think you're probably scum
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:37 am
by Ircher
Fwiw, mastina is likely town despite the reads. I'm just saying her accuracy is low as is typical for her D1 despite her confidence.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:38 am
by Ircher
In post 755, jjh927 wrote:You literally did just come in and say
"Mastina's reads are bad!"
"Well actually I don't mean all of her reads, just her read on me."
Did you know you have a wagon with like 9 people on it and a bunch of the people who aren't on it also think you're probably scum
No, I haven't read a page with a vote count on it.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:39 am
by jjh927
I'm pretty sure if I voted you right now you'd be E-1
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:39 am
by Ircher
I'm fine with that.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:39 am
by Something_Smart
Ircher, please pick a productive line of thought instead of whatever this mastina shade is.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:41 am
by Ircher
Again, it's not shade. It's facts. mastina's reads day 1 are poor. Period. Everyone should know that given how confident she expresses them.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:42 am
by jjh927
I mean, my day 1 reads are unambiguously top tier and you're also in my scumreads
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:43 am
by Ircher
Even paragons get it wrong at times.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:43 am
by Nero Cain
U LIE!
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:44 am
by Nero Cain
paragons are never ever wrong and their reads are 100% correct 100% of the time
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:45 am
by jjh927
Right but the point is that maybe rather than trying to defend yourself by shitting on another player's reputation you should focus on actual reads you actually have
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:47 am
by jjh927
And this is a "don't glance through the posts, actually read them" kind of situation because that's a minimum level of effort required for you to play to wincon if you're somehow town here
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:50 am
by Vivax
I have some reservations about the mimi 0% productivity thing. It's just too bigbrain as scum to pass up, and I don't think mastina isn't bigbrain. But could be wrong.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:51 am
by furtiveglance
In post 718, mastina wrote: In post 164, Something_Smart wrote:Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.
The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.
So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.
For the record, I am also locktownning Something Smart for this post.
This is setup, maths and probability spec from someone who obviously loves this kind of thing. How is it town indicative?
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:53 am
by jjh927
I mean, one thing I haven't seen discussed on a strategic level is the idea that if we were all mafia-playing robots and not people with varying skill levels, optimal play would probably be for everyone with a PR to do 0% on day 1 so that they have 100% banked for using power roles, and we just bite the bullet of the probably two extra kills in N1.
Not all players are equal though so this would cause things to tank on a dayplay level
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:56 am
by jjh927
But anyway, Mastina declaring 0% is absolutely town indicative because no matter what- Mastina made that decision with thought behind it. Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it. And if Mastina was scum, declaring any percentage would be a fakeclaim that might become unraveled.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:00 am
by Andresvmb
In post 434, Vivax wrote:Well, because we were on course for an Ircher lim for presumably good reason, and when I checked in I saw a bunch of strange stuff, and the strangest one was him posting a list with mostly reasonable people at the bottom, imho.
VOTE: Ircher
I'll go back to Ircher, actually. L-1
But more tomorrow when I'm sober if nobody hammers.
I think this slot is Scum too actually. Up to where I read, I wouldn’t move my vote on Ydrasse, but I’ll keep reading.
If Ircher flips Town, blow this up.
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:01 am
by Klick
If mastina is scum, it is true that she's not going to contribute at all to productivity early on (or ever)
I wouldn't write her off with that reasoning
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:02 am
by furtiveglance
In post 771, jjh927 wrote:But anyway, Mastina declaring 0% is absolutely town indicative because no matter what- Mastina made that decision with thought behind it. Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it. And if Mastina was scum, declaring any percentage would be a fakeclaim that might become unraveled.
What about "uh yeah that was a bait guys I'm VT" in a couple days? Not that I'm saying this is definitely the most likely scenario...