Page 32 of 47
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:19 am
by ac1983fan
↑ SafetyDance wrote:
You're useless but you're not going to replace out too are you?
Would you consider moving your vote to HD now? Beli doesn't want to lynch Edo, but isn't against a HD lynch.
The only way I'm ever going to get any better is by actually trying, right?
And it doesn't really matter to me what Beli wants? Just because I think he's likely town doesn't mean I'm going to follow his reasoning, but I'd be more than happy to switch to Human Destroyer if the deadline approaches and we're in danger of a no lynch.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:39 pm
by SafetyDance
↑ ac1983fan wrote: ↑ SafetyDance wrote:
You're useless but you're not going to replace out too are you?
Would you consider moving your vote to HD now? Beli doesn't want to lynch Edo, but isn't against a HD lynch.
The only way I'm ever going to get any better is by actually trying, right?
And it doesn't really matter to me what Beli wants? Just because I think he's likely town doesn't mean I'm going to follow his reasoning, but I'd be more than happy to switch to Human Destroyer
if the deadline approaches and we're in danger of a no lynch.
That'd be the point seeing as we still have 6 wagons and deadline is now n-days away. (can happen anytime)
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:40 pm
by Cheery Dog
↑ Belisarius wrote: ↑ Cheery Dog wrote:
↑ Belisarius wrote:I'd still rather ice Cheery at this point though.
Is that still just on my post from the start of the day where my fingers typed town instead of scum?
Do you have other reads?
Patience perforce with wilful choler meeting makes my flesh tremble in its different greeting
I shall withdraw, but this intrusion shall now seeming sweet convert to bitter gall
UNVOTE:
IGMEOU, though
@SD:
I but acquiesced to a NS lynch; claim notwithstanding I neither support nor oppose it, and will no longer spam up this game with a profitless defence of a player who will not consent to defend himself
So other/actual scum reads?
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 2:51 pm
by ac1983fan
↑ SafetyDance wrote:
That'd be the point seeing as we still have 6 wagons and deadline is now n-days away. (can happen anytime)
Presumably the mod would give us a minimum of 24 hours notice once the deadline is unsuspended.
Your point is taken; however, it should be noted that I am currently voting for the "strongest" wagon, and that our town clear as well as POPC and Beli haven't voted.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:13 pm
by implosion
So people are unvoting based on a roleblocker claim because...
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:40 pm
by SafetyDance
↑ Apozzle wrote:
---
NS's claim cannot be confirmed easily. If there is even one more PR, then scum have a roleblocker. The only thing that would even give us an idea of whether NS is telling the truth is if we kill that particular scum, or if he roleblocks his way into giving us scum to lynch.
If we lynch him and he flips scum, it might give us some information (focused mainly around people who were defending him because of meta during day one). If we lynch him and he flips town, we just killed a PR and it tells us relatively little because he interacted very little (and the meta argument becomes null at that point). The only thing we will have is wagon analysis.
While I can see how this could be a scum gambit, I feel more as if I would rather give him the benefit of the doubt for another day.
On the other hand, players like HD and Beli have had relatively more interaction with everyone. I believe that their flips will tell us a lot more.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:42 pm
by Nobody Special
↑ implosion wrote:So people are unvoting based on a roleblocker claim because...
Because it's the right thing to do.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:49 pm
by implosion
goddammit apozzle.
having interactions is not a reason to lynch someone.
Look at this list. Then look at who the scum were in this game.
Funny story - that post was made by a townie, and in it, he decided to list everyone by how much info we'd learn from their flips. He managed to successfully, perhaps by accident, pin both scum in that post as the two people whose flips provided the least information. Information is not a reason to lynch, ever. Thinking that someone is scum is. A roleblocker claim does NOT justify NS's behavior - in fact, if anything it makes him much more likely to be scum.
Given that two of the letters were masons, the five unknown letters could be anything (except, we can assume, more masons, or at least I will). That's five letters, each with an effective 5/90 = 1/18 chance to be a roleblocker letter, for a base 25% chance of there being a roleblocker
at all.
The odds of a scum roleblocker are higher although i'm too lazy to carry out the calculation. "benefit of the doubt" is not a valid reason to delay his lynch. Granted those odds alone aren't enough to justify lynching him but come
on.
Those odds combined with NS's play is enough.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:01 pm
by SafetyDance
Which is why if we don't get any successful flips today/tonight we lynch him tomorrow to remove him from the MYLO/LYLO equation.
Apozzle =/= Guderian
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 4:04 pm
by implosion
Yes. This is a different situation. I agree.
But the last line from Apozzle implied that information gained from a lynch should be a significant factor in deciding the lynchee. And i'm showing that it shouldn't.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 5:25 pm
by Apozzle
I am not saying no to lynching NS today because of only information. I am weighing the various factors to determine whether I believe he is the best lynch. Information is one of those factors.
Furthermore, you are not showing that it should be discounted as a factor in decision making. You are displaying a singular case in which using it as a factor lead to the wrong conclusion. If you show me 100 cases in which using information gain as a factor lead to defeat or serious damage to town, then I will consider the evidence significantly overwhelming to discount it and support an NS lynch today.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 5:28 pm
by implosion
↑ Apozzle wrote:I am not saying no to lynching NS today because of only information. I am weighing the various factors to determine whether I believe he is the best lynch. Information is one of those factors.
It should not be a factor whatsoever.
Furthermore, you are not showing that it should be discounted as a factor in decision making. You are displaying a singular case in which using it as a factor lead to the wrong conclusion. If you show me 100 cases in which using information gain as a factor lead to defeat or serious damage to town, then I will consider the evidence significantly overwhelming to discount it and support an NS lynch today.
I'm showing enough evidence to discount the automatic supposition that it is important as a factor. You have the burden of proof to show that it is a useful factor, i.e. you, if you wanted to show that it should be an important factor, need to show ME 100 cases where, in the majority of cases, it has led to enough information to overcome the negative effects of not focusing entirely on aiming for scum, or that no such negative effects exist.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:34 pm
by pieceofpecanpie
↑ implosion wrote: ↑ Apozzle wrote:I am not saying no to lynching NS today because of only information. I am weighing the various factors to determine whether I believe he is the best lynch. Information is one of those factors.
It should not be a factor whatsoever.
Well in this case I don't feel lynching a PR claim Day 2 is the best course of action, even if it is NS. Scum points to you, implosion, for talking a bunch of waffle-y nonsense advocating the lynch. If we mislynch a PR now that's a huge set back for us and one that we shouldn't be risking.
But for now, back to my previous vote.
VOTE: Belisarius
Case summary incoming.
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:35 pm
by implosion
If we mislynch a PR now that's a huge set back for us and one that we shouldn't be risking.
or
or
we lynch scum
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:45 am
by pieceofpecanpie
Or
Or
Or
We leave NS alone for today and IF he's a PR scum will do the killing for us, IF he's lying or left alive we get to decide whether to hear results from one or two nights and then confirm that information by lynching him.
How can you be against this?
UNVOTE:
VOTE: implosion
Are you trying desperately hard to mislynch him? Because I'm starting to believe his claim due to your weird logic, which I can only read as anti-town.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:22 am
by SafetyDance
Implosion, if he's not lying then we lose a PR that could be used during the night to positive effect to TOWN. It's not like he's sole scum.
As I mentioned, if worst case scenario happens, then he's going to be gone tomorrow anyway (imo) simply to prevent any wifom at lylo. Which is why I can understand what Apozzle is saying.
I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:27 am
by SafetyDance
↑ ac1983fan wrote: ↑ SafetyDance wrote:
That'd be the point seeing as we still have 6 wagons and deadline is now n-days away. (can happen anytime)
Presumably the mod would give us a minimum of 24 hours notice once the deadline is unsuspended.
Your point is taken; however, it should be noted that I am currently voting for the "strongest" wagon, and that our town clear as well as POPC and Beli haven't voted.
Yes, and one of those has voted for HD in the past and the other isn't against it. The odd one out is a maverick and I'm done trying to understand his reasonings.
He hasn't posted in game for other 3 days and is very active on site. Ergo, active lurking now. This close (past) deadline? I'm more comfortable lynching him now.
I'm just trying to drum up support for who I think should be lynched, since now it looks like we aren't voting NS. I'm not liking that for a lot of the day we've had 5-6 wagons. It's definitely feels contrived. And we don't
have
to wait for a deadline to get a lynch through, just a consensus.
@Mod maybe bump the replacement request?
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:22 am
by pieceofpecanpie
↑ SafetyDance wrote:I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
Oh and implosion
is
helping get a consensus? Keeping his vote on NS now is a bogus move, regardless of whether he still thinks NS is scummy. I certainly haven't cleared NS, I don't know if you have, but at least we - along with others - have stopped being on the wagon despite previous judgement, because the PR claim is telling us it's best to lynch elsewhere.
I haven't tried to create a wagon, it's not like I asked implosion to do scummy things, I've just reacted to the build up of actions from him that I've noted as scummy.
However, for the sake of consensus I can either push for people to vote implosion or I can switch back to Belisarius. I am not voting HD. I would much rather Belisarius if it came down to looking at the most viable of the previous wagons.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 4:15 am
by SafetyDance
↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote: ↑ SafetyDance wrote:I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
Oh and implosion
is
helping get a consensus? Keeping his vote on NS now is a bogus move, regardless of whether he still thinks NS is scummy. I certainly haven't cleared NS, I don't know if you have, but at least we - along with others - have stopped being on the wagon despite previous judgement, because the PR claim is telling us it's best to lynch elsewhere.
I haven't tried to create a wagon, it's not like I asked implosion to do scummy things, I've just reacted to the build up of actions from him that I've noted as scummy.
Making a case for staying on NS =/= creating another wagon. If he switches and votes for say, you, then yes, that's not really helping either.
...and yes NS, that would mean you too giving reads and scum hunting even a bit. You're not really US or yourself any favor just doing SFA except voting ac1983 and claiming.
Looking at VC etc, the most popular lynchees outside yourself are Implosion, Edosurist, Belisarius and HD. Form and give an opinion on all of them please. Or even all of us. But baby steps, wouldn't want to over burden you you or anything.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:25 am
by implosion
popc wrote:Are you trying desperately hard to mislynch him? Because I'm starting to believe his claim due to your weird logic, which I can only read as anti-town.
That logic wasn't even in favor of lynching NS; it was just trying to debunk what apozzle said. Here's some logic in favor of lynching NS:
Safety wrote:Implosion, if he's not lying then we lose a PR that could be used during the night to positive effect to TOWN. It's not like he's sole scum.
three things.
Number one. If he IS lying then we KILL a pr that could be used during the night to NEGATIVE effect to TOWN.
Number two. We can't just go around being afraid to lynch people because we're afraid they're going to be a power role.
Number three. NS provides very, very little benefit to the town at all - sure, he could roleblock, but we're in odds (odd number of players alive during the day) - scum can, if they so desire, simply no-kill and his roleblock would be made essentially useless, and he'd likely be lynched the next day.
Safety wrote:
I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
It's not like I'm trying to create a wagon out of thin air. I'm trying to explain why people were stupid for jumping off of it in the first place. Any benefit to the town is nominal, especially if we're just going to wind up saying "we'll lynch him later anyway."
popc wrote:but at least we - along with others - have stopped being on the wagon despite previous judgement, because the PR claim is telling us it's best to lynch elsewhere.
Apozzle is clear. That does not mean apozzle is right.
I would be HAPPY to vote edosurist if a wagon formed more. I just don't predict that happening, and he and NS are the only lynches that I think have any good chance of happening (yes, i may be delusional, but i think i can still convince people on NS more easily than i can on edos) that i think will wind up being on scum.
incidentally i typed this up in ten minutes before going to a lecture so if it sounds crazy then oh well but seriously.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:07 am
by Belisarius
I'm still using PoE, so the list of people I'm not willing to lynch constitutes my reads.
Looking forward to Susan's case, though. I've got me Spock ears all ready to go.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:19 am
by pieceofpecanpie
↑ SafetyDance wrote: ↑ pieceofpecanpie wrote: ↑ SafetyDance wrote:I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
Oh and implosion
is
helping get a consensus? Keeping his vote on NS now is a bogus move, regardless of whether he still thinks NS is scummy. I certainly haven't cleared NS, I don't know if you have, but at least we - along with others - have stopped being on the wagon despite previous judgement, because the PR claim is telling us it's best to lynch elsewhere.
I haven't tried to create a wagon, it's not like I asked implosion to do scummy things, I've just reacted to the build up of actions from him that I've noted as scummy.
Making a case for staying on NS =/= creating another wagon. If he switches and votes for say, you, then yes, that's not really helping either.
I didn't say the two are the same thing. I'm saying keeping his vote on NS not only isn't sensible, it's also not helping us reach a consensus. On top of that I also find the case for staying on NS scummy, but that's subjective.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:28 am
by pieceofpecanpie
You can cut the smarmy crap. I switched votes to implosion, haven't switched back yet, have clearly stated my preferences and will assess what's happening vis-à-vis replacement and deadline to determine what I do. For the time being consider your request for me to devote my time drafting a more detailed case on Belisarius denied.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:24 am
by SafetyDance
It wasn't a request. "Case incoming". Means you had something tangible. If you didn't write it up, if you have no case....well, it's just another nail in the coffin to your credibility.
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:33 am
by SafetyDance
↑ implosion wrote:Safety wrote:Implosion, if he's not lying then we lose a PR that could be used during the night to positive effect to TOWN. It's not like he's sole scum.
three things.
Number one. If he IS lying then we KILL a pr that could be used during the night to NEGATIVE effect to TOWN.
Number two. We can't just go around being afraid to lynch people because we're afraid they're going to be a power role.
Number three. NS provides very, very little benefit to the town at all - sure, he could roleblock, but we're in odds (odd number of players alive during the day) - scum can, if they so desire, simply no-kill and his roleblock would be made essentially useless, and he'd likely be lynched the next day.
1) To-may-to, to-mah-to. Most of us are saying one, you are saying the other. We're playing cautiously, you'd prefer to be reckless. Yes, he could be a scum RB, it was mentioned a couple of times but why take the chance IF he's town? It leaves us on a wing and a prayer with the other side holding all the chips.
2) It's not being afraid, it's postponing till tomorrow at worst case scenario. I'm certainly not afraid to lynch him. The fact he claimed RB makes me more comfortable to lynch him over a doc/cop claim.
3) I don't disagree with the start of this but the rest is just pre-nk spec. It's just as bad as pop in #789.
↑ implosion wrote:Safety wrote:
I don't understand either, how Implosion is definitely pushing a mislynch or deserves a vote just for wanting one of his top scum reads lynched. Trying to create another wagon now IS scummy, imo, it's not really helping getting a consensus.
It's not like I'm trying to create a wagon out of thin air. I'm trying to explain why people were stupid for jumping off of it in the first place. Any benefit to the town is nominal, especially if we're just going to wind up saying "we'll lynch him later anyway."
That's what I'm getting at. You're at least being consistent and can follow your line of thought.
Look, if you can get/convince at least two other people to hop back on, then I'll join him. Otherwise, I think you should consider HD.
