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Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:11 am
by Varsoon
In post 685, Something_Smart wrote: In post 611, Varsoon wrote:Town intentionally killing itself so that town can eventually get a Vig that'll more often than not just kill more town is an awful idea.
Also, do you seriously believe that Arthur getting the sword is bad for town? It's mechanically equivalent to double day, at the very least if Arthur has poor reads he can be leashed and it still provides a massive boost to town EV...
Yes. I have seen far more games where town vig ruins the game for town and just gives scum extra kills than ones where town vig is a hero and shoots right.
I've moderated more than one game where town vig shoots town and significantly lowers town's chances of winning.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:15 am
by Auro
@Varsoon: What would be wrong with hypoclaims on Arthur and outing only if consensus hurt?
So if Merlin perchance dies at night, Arthur is an IC the next day.
If Merlin isn't NK'd, and Arthur is -- this could've happened anyway if both both were outed.
If both make it to next day, that's awesome, right?
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:16 am
by Dunnstral
*claps hands* Just because vig shoots town doesn't mean it was a bad shot *claps hands*
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:17 am
by Varsoon
Arthur is never IC if Merlin dies before claiming.
I don't get what you mean by hypoclaims on Arthur.
Also, I trust you WAY less after this recent loss to you in that Newbie game. You wormed your way into a townread on me there by being methodical and questioning like this and so I'm going to be way more critical of you moving forward.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:18 am
by Auro
In post 778, Varsoon wrote:Arthur is never IC if Merlin dies before claiming.
I don't get what you mean by hypoclaims on Arthur.
Also, I trust you WAY less after this recent loss to you in that Newbie game. You wormed your way into a townread on me there by being methodical and questioning like this and so I'm going to be way more critical of you moving forward.
In D2, everyone says who Arthur is if they were Merlin.
If Merlin dies, the person he said is Arthur, is confirmed Arthur.
Yeah fair enough on the trust part.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:19 am
by Lady Lambdadelta
In post 763, MariaR wrote: In post 746, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: In post 731, MariaR wrote: In post 727, DVa wrote: In post 725, MariaR wrote:If I had my way right now:
Smart/LLD would be dueling
winner goes for the sword along with Dva or UT.
Does this mean you're scumreading me Maria?
I could see you flipping scum yes but I would rather see you go for the sword then dual.
I find it interesting you want me to duel day 1. I think that seems strictly suboptimal, don't you?
I think you're going to be pushed regardless if you're scum or not. If you win the dual you go for the sword. If you flip people lose the excuse of pushing you.
This is a bad idea on Day 1 though. With no associatives, if you put me in a duel day 1 it will become about me and not the opponent. It will be a vote on whether people believe I am scum or I am town... in the best case. In the worst case it will be 1) scum finding an excuse to vote for me 2) people deciding that they have little else to go off of and voting for me from Paranoia.
The fact is putting me to duel on day 1 gives town the least possible information. The duel should be between a scummy person and a lurk fuck forcing people to take a stand. We want all of our gladiates to make scum make a choice and create as many associatives as possible.
If I don't have the sword tomorrow, I'm going to be dueling who I think is scum very likely. Simply because then my reads will have matured a little, day 2 votes have a lot less for people to hide behind in terms of reasoning, and it makes people take an actual stand on my alignment instead of playing the Mastina game of "well she could be scum but I dunno" until the cows come home.
No one on the list of big personalities should be dueling people day 1. It's too galvanizing. Force of personality, in one direction or the other, will be a huge confounding factor and ruin too many connections.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:19 am
by Varsoon
In post 777, Dunnstral wrote:*claps hands* Just because vig shoots town doesn't mean it was a bad shot *claps hands*
Scumpost harder.
Also we never get a vig in this setup, Dunn.
I already came up with an ideal strat for it and even then it's like 1/7 chance,
It's awful.
The reality is that Arthur can't Vig until Merlin confirms who Arthur is
Trying to vig before then confers a 11/12 chance of suicide.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:20 am
by Lady Lambdadelta
I think a good day one duel would be Veridian v. Elsa, or Cakez v. UT or Auro v. Any of those names.
Make people take a stand.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:21 am
by Lady Lambdadelta
Is UT too big personality wise... to do this with I wonder
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:21 am
by Varsoon
In post 779, Auro wrote: In post 778, Varsoon wrote:Arthur is never IC if Merlin dies before claiming.
I don't get what you mean by hypoclaims on Arthur.
Also, I trust you WAY less after this recent loss to you in that Newbie game. You wormed your way into a townread on me there by being methodical and questioning like this and so I'm going to be way more critical of you moving forward.
In D2, everyone says who Arthur is if they were Merlin.
If Merlin dies, the person he said is Arthur, is confirmed Arthur.
Yeah fair enough on the trust part.
That'd actually probably be fine. It makes it much more likely that Merlin gets shot D2 but if scum are out to shoot Merlin anyway they'll just do that if he hard claims.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:25 am
by Auro
In post 784, Varsoon wrote:That'd actually probably be fine. It makes it much more likely that Merlin gets shot D2 but if scum are out to shoot Merlin anyway they'll just do that if he hard claims.
Yes, it increases the likelihood of Merlin/Arthur getting shot N2, but considering he is Arthur would be shot anyway if outed in D2, it's equivalent to outing in D2 in the worst case.
As far as D2 and not N2 goes, Merlin only outs himself or Arthur subject to either being pushed to gladiate.
Cool then.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:33 am
by Auro
In post 780, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:No one on the list of big personalities should be dueling people day 1. It's too galvanizing. Force of personality, in one direction or the other, will be a huge confounding factor and ruin too many connections.
Even if one the "big personalities" has 9 hurts on them?
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:40 am
by Something_Smart
In post 725, MariaR wrote:If I had my way right now:
Smart/LLD would be dueling
winner goes for the sword along with Dva or UT.
Reads aside, why do you think it'd be good for the gamestate for someone so loud to duel someone so quiet?
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:46 am
by Dunnstral
In post 781, Varsoon wrote: In post 777, Dunnstral wrote:*claps hands* Just because vig shoots town doesn't mean it was a bad shot *claps hands*
Scumpost harder.
Also we never get a vig in this setup, Dunn.
I already came up with an ideal strat for it and even then it's like 1/7 chance,
It's awful.
The reality is that Arthur can't Vig until Merlin confirms who Arthur is
Trying to vig before then confers a 11/12 chance of suicide.
Don't forget to hurt tag me like you hurt tagged everyone else who disagreed with your mechanics discussion
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:47 am
by Dunnstral
And I wasn't even saying it's likely that we get a vig, just arguing against the notion that all shots on town are bad shots - if they're aimed at people who would otherwise be lynched, they're still in towns favor
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:01 am
by Something_Smart
First of all Varsoon it seems like we're mostly on the same page now. One of the things I was getting at was that, regardless of how good your plan is, the hypoclaim (where everyone says who Arthur is) is objectively better than yours. It seems like that's been established.
In post 774, Varsoon wrote:No, I disagree entirely.
I disagree because what I want (and what we should want) is a plan that works REGARDLESS of town cohesion, and that works AS SOON AS POSSIBLE and that GIVES US THE MOST GUARANTEED LEVERAGE OVER SCUM;
If we have 2 confirmed in Merlin-Arthur on D2 with a hidden third BP player that can later confirm, that's the best possible situation for us.
Our lynch pool shrinks from 15 to 12 on D2 which is HUGELY SIGNIFICANT.
People have been trying to shade the sword-claimant thing but so long as our Sword-Holder just claims THE DAY BEFORE LYLO, counterclaims don't beat it and we are guaranteed a BP IC going into LYLO.
This is literally the only way we are guaranteed any ICs going into LYLO as every other plan hinges too much on keeping Merlin/Arthur hidden until at least D3 or later without realizing one of two things:
1. LYLO is D5 in this setup.
2. Every Night that Merlin/Arthur go unclaimed is another huge risk we take that scum kills Merlin and we lose two ICs.
So, to REITERATE because I know some people might just be dense and not get it:
1. The problem with 'wait to confirm Merlin' plans is that they are very high risk for relatively low reward (to get an single extra IC into LYLO, Merlin would have to claim D4 at the earliest and go un-gladiated and un-killed until then)
2. The problem with 'use the sword to cop players' is that it only works if both town and scum agree to play around it AND if we fail to catch scum with it the first time, it literally won't work because the sword won't become unclaimed unless the townie that claimed it suicides.
I understand where you're coming from in most of this, but I object to some of it. First of all, a plan that requires some town cohesion is not necessarily worse than a plan that requires no town cohesion; in fact it's likely to be better because we can assume that town can put its cohesion to good use. So really the best thing to do is to accurately predict how much cohesion town is going to have, and if you can do that then please do.
Assuming the sword is claimed N1, our lynchpool always shrinks from 15 to 12. As long as we give both potential duelers a chance to claim before the duel, neither the sword holder, Merlin, nor Arthur will be in danger of being lynched, no matter WHAT plan we adopt.
And yes, I realize it's hard to keep Merlin and Arthur hidden... but it's even harder to do so if Merlin claims.
Every strategy has some way to fail; just because you've made a strategy that fails equally well no matter how good scum are at PR hunting doesn't mean you've made the best strategy.
And finally, just because townies have to suicide in order to use the sword as a cop doesn't mean you should automatically discount it. That strategy DEFINITELY has the best chance of Arthur getting the sword, and maybe you should trust literally everyone else when they say that's a huge plus for town.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:08 am
by Auro
In post 790, Something_Smart wrote:And finally, just because townies have to suicide in order to use the sword as a cop doesn't mean you should automatically discount it. That strategy DEFINITELY has the best chance of Arthur getting the sword, and maybe you should trust literally everyone else when they say that's a huge plus for town.
Something_Smart, I thought that the whole Arthur thing was irrelevant - the point of the sword mechanics was to use it as a copping mechanism by deciding who takes the sword. Said copping mechanism doesn't seem so appealing giving it's virtually suicide for the holder.
Can you show how Arthur getting it is a huge plus for town, given the costs of suicides in the process?
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:10 am
by Auro
In post 790, Something_Smart wrote:First of all, a plan that requires some town cohesion is not necessarily worse than a plan that requires no town cohesion; in fact it's likely to be better because we can assume that town can put its cohesion to good use. So really the best thing to do is to accurately predict how much cohesion town is going to have
Townread on Something_Smart for this, I really don't see any utility in scum pointing this out. Plus, I've actually thought (and maybe said) something like this earlier in the game.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:11 am
by Dunnstral
Nevermind the whole arthur thing, just cycling through confirmed towns helps us up. If we get people we
would have lynched anyway
to grab the sword and then die, it's still a net positive for the town, even if we never get the sword on Arthur
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:12 am
by Dunnstral
In post 792, Auro wrote: In post 790, Something_Smart wrote:First of all, a plan that requires some town cohesion is not necessarily worse than a plan that requires no town cohesion; in fact it's likely to be better because we can assume that town can put its cohesion to good use. So really the best thing to do is to accurately predict how much cohesion town is going to have
Townread on Something_Smart for this, I really don't see any utility in scum pointing this out. Plus, I've actually thought (and maybe said) something like this earlier in the game.
LOL are you serious? I feel like me + DVa + maria have been saying some variation of this all game day long
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:15 am
by Dunnstral
In post 792, Auro wrote: In post 790, Something_Smart wrote:First of all, a plan that requires some town cohesion is not necessarily worse than a plan that requires no town cohesion; in fact it's likely to be better because we can assume that town can put its cohesion to good use. So really the best thing to do is to accurately predict how much cohesion town is going to have
Townread on Something_Smart for this, I really don't see any utility in scum pointing this out. Plus, I've actually thought (and maybe said) something like this earlier in the game.
I don't understand what he's saying here that scum couldn't have pointed out, this isn't a jab at S_S I'm questioning YOUR logic here
That a plan that requires some cohesion is better than one that requires no cohesion...? No really... He's not the first person to say this or work off this notion at the very least
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:15 am
by Something_Smart
In post 791, Auro wrote: In post 790, Something_Smart wrote:And finally, just because townies have to suicide in order to use the sword as a cop doesn't mean you should automatically discount it. That strategy DEFINITELY has the best chance of Arthur getting the sword, and maybe you should trust literally everyone else when they say that's a huge plus for town.
Something_Smart, I thought that the whole Arthur thing was irrelevant - the point of the sword mechanics was to use it as a copping mechanism by deciding who takes the sword. Said copping mechanism doesn't seem so appealing giving it's virtually suicide for the holder.
Can you show how Arthur getting it is a huge plus for town, given the costs of suicides in the process?
I mean, if every non-Arthur who gets the sword and suicides is someone we would have lynched anyway, it gives us the opportunity to lynch someone else instead, as Dunn is saying.
Besides, whenever we have to suicide one person who wouldn't be lynched (and this isn't likely to happen more than once if it happens at all), we lose half a day. But every time Arthur shoots, we gain half a day.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:16 am
by Dunnstral
In post 763, MariaR wrote: In post 746, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: In post 731, MariaR wrote: In post 727, DVa wrote: In post 725, MariaR wrote:If I had my way right now:
Smart/LLD would be dueling
winner goes for the sword along with Dva or UT.
Does this mean you're scumreading me Maria?
I could see you flipping scum yes but I would rather see you go for the sword then dual.
I find it interesting you want me to duel day 1. I think that seems strictly suboptimal, don't you?
I think you're going to be pushed regardless if you're scum or not. If you win the dual you go for the sword. If you flip people lose the excuse of pushing you.
And this was really weird coming from you - she's going to be pushed so might as well lynch her anyway? What? There's NO WAY you're actually thinking like this... Like I know there's not
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:17 am
by Auro
In post 794, Dunnstral wrote:LOL are you serious? I feel like me + DVa + maria have been saying some variation of this all game day long
AFAIR, you were arguing with me that the likelihood of *one* town screwing up as Merlin was arguably as much as two or three town out of 13 not co-operating. I said it's pretty clear that's untrue, and you then stopped engaging me there.
Something_Smart's pointing out that it's worth searching for a strategy expecting a degree of cohesion but not *perfect* cohesion, which early DVa's plan required.
Can you show me the relevant quotes from you guys that say this?
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:18 am
by Dunnstral
In post 798, Auro wrote:AFAIR, you were arguing with me that the likelihood of *one* town screwing up as Merlin was arguably as much as two or three town out of 13 not co-operating. I said it's pretty clear that's untrue, and you then stopped engaging me there.
Gonna call this one out as a misrepresentation of what's been going on