Mafiascum.net

In post 766, Lukewarm wrote:But for some reason, Guilty Lion keeps saying that he scum read Bingle over Marci, and I just do not see that in his ISO at all

In post 768, GuiltyLion wrote:IT'S RIGHT THERE IN HIS ISO HOW DO YOU NOT SEE IT

In post 783, GuiltyLion wrote:you might get an opportunity still if that was a "let me read" unvote and not a "GL is clearly town" unvote

I'm trying to take a breath and consider if I'm wrong about Vander but not gonna lie it's really hard for me to see the town case for Vander. Luke has done some ostensibly overtly scummy stuff, and the way he's kinda ignored my pleads to elim Vander after me is kinda giving me pause - it doesn't match his attitude at all with Bingle EOD1 - but I still think this would be quite an impressive scumgame especially in terms of real time posting if he's scum here. Do we feel confident about a hypothetical Lukewarm/Marci/Dunn F3 if that does somehow happen? If Dunn is town and Actually Tries I think we'll be okay and that's the real worst case scenario

In post 785, marcistar wrote:777 "It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours." this is the reason for ur vote on guiltylions..? so like, if hes scum... why would he be doing this?
quite an obvious "big deal" surely would gain attention and then result in votes possibly, so what would a scum have to gain from it..? Putting their life out to say something like that..? I find it unlikely, its more likely they would be more cautious imo...

Spoiler:

though maybe i've just been biased cuz i've been townreading guiltylions.

(if hes scum) if he dies it would be gg..
i find how hes acting consistent with how hes been all game, it

doesn't

seem like hes trying to just push urgently to live another day, it seems more like after a scumflip he's gained more confidence in a read, which makes it seem a bit townie

but also, i have a genuine question for u;
day phase literally just started not that long ago, so

why did you felt the need to vote guiltylions..?

he already had 2 votes at that point (i think? thats what a votecount says..), and it says it takes 4 votes for a hammer... knowing not_mafias voting tendencies, the vote you made is very weird.... it seems like you were trying to get him hammered? you don't always need to vote someone you sus, you can just push without voting... would a townie really rush so quick into a vote like that, when its not 100% certain hes scum? a townie would doubt alot more, but you really don't seem to care..? it seems like ur kinda trying to stunt the conversations and make more options for miselims.

am i getting this wrong..?
this is just what im thinking rn, because the wagon on guiltylions kinda reeks imo, and this is the major flaw im finding in it

-- --

another question i have is,

how confident are you in this vote?

Spoiler:

like list the percentage

In post 787, Lukewarm wrote:Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here.

In post 788, marcistar wrote:

In post 787, Lukewarm wrote:Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here.

are u usually quick on votes lukewarm?

we may have leeway rn, but if we do it all speedrun style that can backfire so quick on us

In post 782, Not_Mafia wrote:Hopkirk you rascal you stole my hammer

In post 789, Lukewarm wrote:Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

In post 791, marcistar wrote:

In post 789, Lukewarm wrote:Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

In post 793, Hopkirk wrote:2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still suffer

In post 738, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 729, Dunnstral wrote:Luke, can you go over why Bingle being scum makes Marci more likely?

I could see a world where Bingle defended me so that I would stay in the game to keep defending Marci.

Spoiler:

279 -Early on in the day, he disagreed with both Not_Mafia and Norwee when they said that Marci seemed the same as she was in our last game, when he could have just as easily kind of deferred to their meta experience with her.

395 + 399 - Then he hard came to my defense when there was a growing suspicion on me.

So at the time, I felt like he disagreed with both of the first 2 big townie wagons, and that that would be dangerous for scum!bingle to do (part of my TR for him). At the start of the game we were talking about eliminating from the 6p pool, so scum had a 1 in 6 to auto lose Day 1. If Bingle derailed the first 2 big town wagons, then he made that 1 in 4. So he increased the odds of an auto lose....

Unless of course, Marci was his partner. That would mean that he quietly disagreed with the case on Marci, then hard defended her most vocal defender.

I still don't know if I believe that Bingle would put marci in the 6p pool in the first place, and I don't think that marci would want to be in the 6p pool knowing that her being eliminated Day 1 would be an auto lose. So she is still not high on my scum list, but there is partner equity between her and Bingle that I noticed.

In post 793, Hopkirk wrote:Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there

In post 796, Lukewarm wrote:Because I feel like I should be obv town at this point. Like, maybe bad town, but obv town none the less.

In post 1381, Bingle wrote:I think Pooky/Infinity thinks that Pooky is the stronger scumplayer.

I think that Pooky/skitter thinks that both of them are strong enough to duck an elim.

Basically, I think the scum in the 6p is someone that has a higher opinion of their own scumgame than infinity or someone confident that they can get multiple miselims in that pool. I don't think a scumteam containing Vanders is confident that they can pull of multiple eliminations in that pool given the sum total of 3 completed games in the last three years Vanders has under his belt and the fact that he would definitely have a partner who could tell him that.

I'll be back to finish my thoughts in a while.

In post 749, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm gonna keep 1v1ing I guess cause none of y'all else want to post I suppose

In post 743, Vanderscamp wrote:I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

This is a pretty fundamental disagreement between us I think. If we had mis-elimmed in the big pool, I'm pretty sure the correct call after that would be to lim (up to) twice in the small pool to at least take a 66% chance of hitting scum with a F5 as worst case scenario. So in my mind, scum team is playing this entire game around losing the 3p scum member, even prior to gamestart in how they divide the pools.

Do you disagree with me on that? This ^ has been centrally driving how I've been evaluating players the entire game.

In post 743, Vanderscamp wrote:Here's what I think is the most recent comment
viewtopic.php?p=12738362#p12738362

I notice here you said:

vanderscamp wrote:I do bus occasionally, I actually bussed a couple of partners in a recent game, but when I do this I do it because I think the cred is worth it.

And now here in this game, your first and primary defense for why you should be seen as town is arguing that you are the reason that Bingle got eliminated. I think the cred for bussing in this setup, where (as I just said) you can presume 3p scum is very likely going to go down, is absolutely better than having awkward associations with your buddy.

In post 743, Vanderscamp wrote:You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.

Again you're twisting my words here - it's not solely that your case against Marci was weak, it's that your case against Marci was weak

combined with

the fact that you had said you had reads in the 3p and argued previously that 3p limming was mathematically comparable/better to limming in 6p.

In post 743, Vanderscamp wrote:And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

Because scum is posting in the neighborhood and if you're concerned that I am scum it's odd that you don't bother to respond (let alone READ) at all to how I could be manipulating people in there. I checked your activity over the night phase and saw that while you hadn't posted site wide during the night phase, you had signed into the site around 10 hours before thread open. My belief is that a townie should at least be somewhat interested in what's been discussed in the hood after the Bingle flip. It's fair that you never posted in the hood in the past game, but I would say that:

a) this game has a pretty fundamental difference in that the main thread was locked after the D1 elim (which never occurred in the last game) and
b) it's still bad/anti-town play to not post in there and express your thoughts on discussion in the game, at bare minimum it's not transparent and a reason to be suspicious. Everyone else has posted in there.