And here I was hoping (and actually expecting) Tammy to die. :/
Where I stand at the moment is, bluntly, worse off than I was yesterday. A small part of me hoped that I would die last night, despite knowing how improbable that was, simply so that I could say in a bah post, "THANK GOD. At least I won't have to deal with
lylo. Good luck to the three town who do!" Or something to that effect.
Because, bluntly, THIS IS NOT A LYLO I WANTED TO BE IN. >_<
On Tammy. There's Nacho's doubt on her. There's lingering concern, lingering random pings. But there's also strong overall play, and a strong overall gut feeling of being town. Nearly everything she says, by pure logic, looks good. By gut, she has that general aura of towniness surrounding her as well. I said that if she were scum, I'd let her win--but I can't afford to make the assumption she's town in this lylo, least of all, when Nacho died and he didn't. (Quite frankly, I thought that Nacho would be alive, and I'd have to run through things that way. Even had my whole speech thought out. It's actually remarkably similar to the Tammy speech I'm giving right now.
Basically...
"Nacho...Nacho's the kind of player that if I'm wrong about him being scum in lylo, he'll never forgive me. But he's also the kind of player that if I'm wrong about him being town, I'll never forgive
myself
." In other words, I was waffling over him. I was concerned. That maybe he was scum manipulating me. But also equally afraid that said paranoia would be a mistake.)
In simple terms, Tammy's a player that is basically more concerning than the entirety of the rest of the players, here. Is she scum, whose very survival was a tipoff? Or is she town, being kept alive for a purpose? (Or Chosen, unable to die.
) If the latter, though, it'd actually make a fair deal of sense in a certain scenario I'm concerned about. Tammy's shown concern about my alignment. It might also be Tammy's concern for Bert's alignment, too. And Bert I believe has shown concern for hers as well. (It's something I'd need to double-check.) In other words, something that could point to her being town, and potentially Bert being town as well. (Bert's right, in that Nacho's the player who would be best capable of defending him.)
On the other hand (and what I'm worried about) is that both I and Tammy are alive, despite me having essentially said that she was town enough to me that I'd be willing to let her win as scum. It's a concern because she could be scum actually hoping I'd follow through on that.
However, I don't think she is. I don't think she'd believe me to legitimately follow through with something that could be borderline gamethrowing, so she'd expect me to re-evaluate in lylo. She'd expect me to think things through. And she'd expect me to be paranoid. That doesn't clear her. But it's a good sign.
On Bert. Now on the one hand, Bert's right. Nacho was the player best capable of defending Bert. But as he's so fond to point out, that works both ways--Nacho's ALSO the best player to point out scum in Bert's posting.
Honestly, Bert's a larger concern to me than Tammy, because bluntly...there's just too damn much uncertainty surrounding EVERYTHING about him. His hammer on a Chosen before Nacho could come around to post, in particular, is a heavy point against him, as Tammy basically pointed out at the end of yesterday. A bad gut feeling telling me he's scum is another aspect of that. Plus, the default logic that there should be two scum on the lynchwagon of a Chosen. (Key words, "default" and "should". This is another reason I thought Nacho would live--to cast suspicion onto that wagon.)
On the other hand. Everything else seems town. Nacho's death is a point against both scum being on the wagon, because it would give them a 2/3 chance of being outted rather than a 1/2 chance. His paranoia about me in particular makes him a perfect choice for lylo if he's town, because he's not only expressed interest in me being scum, but has flat-out explicitly voted me.
Furthermore, if Tammy is town, his suspicion on her also makes a fair deal of sense for a town-him to be brought in, and in addition to that, he's mislynch bait, both because of Tammy's suspicion, my suspicion, and his bad hammer vote. Plus, he's got very strong posting this game overall, with everything he's done making a relatively-high amount of sense. Additionally, he had the chance to hammer phok much earlier in the day--and, critically, didn't take it.
Why let more posts come in that can potentially be used to condemn him when he's established a decently-strong presence already? It's certainly something Bert-as-scum can do, but I somehow think that a scum-Bert would have hammered a Chosen-phok earlier.
Then...there's projectmatt. He's been in the town pile for people the entirety of the game. And he's basically been lurking through the game as a result. Seriously, I think he's got the least amount of posts among the living players (would have to double-check to be sure), and of those posts, I remember most of them being mostly-meh in nature.
And he also makes a surprising amount of sense as scum, in hindsight. (Yeah, yeah. I know. Suddenly out-of-the-blue casting suspicion on a player I had been townreading. Looks like a scum ploy in lylo to obtain a mislynch. I know. It looks bad. But I have to speak my peace, because I don't want to forever hold it.
)
He's been a decent townread of people. Everyone here has been townreading him, with weak townreads. His reads, from what I remember of them, aren't exactly strong, and leave him open to lynching almost anyone. (Yeah, yeah. I know! We're ALL guilty of this to at least some extent, and me moreso than probably most players thanks to the waffling. But I have to say it all the same.
)
In lylo, a scumteam with Bert or Tammy in it can easily kill matt and work off of the paranoia involving Nacho, Bert/Tammy, and myself. Simply kill projectmatt, and then bam! Bingo! Instant paranoia between us three to eat us alive. He'd be a safe kill. Nobody would question it because he'd be a townread of everyone, and thus, not a terrible nightkill. Plus, he's a wildcard. While Tammy and Nacho and I and Bert have all more or less laid out our cards, his inactivity means that which way a town-him would swing would be left ambiguous.
So...why wasn't HE the nightkill? (Okay. Chosen. Not impossible. I know. But I get the vibe that he's not, off of what other players have been treating him.) It's a serious question that I'm struggling to find a good answer for, other than him being scum who's setting up for a mislynch in this lylo.
But if this were a total reversal into a solid scumread, you'd see a whole HECK of a lot more conviction in here. Thing is, he's not a strong scumread at all. He's a scumread, yes. In that he's just kinda been...
there
...for the entirety of the game, never strongly pushing, never strongly contributing. And while that's typically a scum trait, it is not a trait exclusive to scum, and he could just as easily be low-hanging town fruit.
And, of course, TIP.
Aside from the vote on me, TIP is basically confirmed scum anyway. His presence on the phok wagon was scummy-as-hell, poorly explained. He pushed it hard and aggressively, even calling for Bert to hammer phok much, MUCH earlier in the day.
He's been highly-lurkish, his reads have been similar to Matt's only, overall, being worse in just how little they give, and basically, this is the same overall him from Walking Dead to my eyes. He's posting, but not heavily pushing. He's focused on surviving and manipulating, rather than pushing and scumhunting. And every single nightkill points squarely in his direction. Every dead player has been suspicious of him, bringing up a lot of good points about him.
Beyond that, there's also the overall vibe. I've been not calling him scum, so it makes sense for him to bring me into lylo. (It makes even more sense if I'm the Chosen for him to be voting me.
) I don't know what Bert's stance is, but I'm willing to bet it's not nearly as scummy as most players were calling him. I don't think Tammy or matt have even said much about him, but of course, would have to double-check to be sure. And him being scum and leaving the town players alive that he has is a great way to push for my mislynch. Because, aside from Tammy and Bert, there's one player here who Nacho also knows: me.
Yes, he knows me well enough that a scum-me would want him dead. (But, quite bluntly, that'd be N1, not N2.
) But he ALSO knows me well enough to tell that this is my town game. And a scum-TIP knows that Nacho can, overall, read me like a book. It makes sense for a scum-TIP to nightkill him, in order to best make sure his mislynch target can actually be mislynched.
I realize this is all weak. I realize that this is all unsubstantiated. I'm working from faulty memories and gut feelings. I realize I need to do a whole HECK of a lot more than what I'm doing right now, but it's a start.
VOTE: TheIrishPope.
