Mini 454: Candy Mafia - Over, Who won?


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Post Post #800 (ISO) » Mon Oct 01, 2007 6:34 pm

Post by JDodge »

Erg0 wrote:Well then how are you a "modified" SK? As with the mafia, I need to be dead for you to win the game anyway. Am I going to endgame you if it comes down to the two of us at the finish?
I dunno, I'll have to ask the mod
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Post Post #801 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:15 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Stewie wrote:The choice is obviously one of Jdodge and TS. [...] If Jdodge is telling the truth:

5 players left. 2 scum. one player dies, making it 4 players, 2 scum. We lose. Else:
5 players left. 1 scum, 1 sk. Two players die, making it 4 players. Could be 1 scum 1 sk, 1 scum, 1 sk or 4 town. I'm not sure which one we should believe right now. My gut tells me TS, my brain says Jdodge. (as he is 100% scum either way).
Too bad none of these numbers are correct. Do your math again.

What "if" JDodge is not an SK, but a mafiate? When you write "if JDodge is telling the truth" it's very confusing. Do you mean, the truth about being a SK, or the truth that he is a mason, or the lie that he might be scum with, er, say, erg0?

Where does Erg0 fit in there? I am sure everyone is curious to know your opinion.
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Post Post #802 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:27 am

Post by Erg0 »

I'm working through it. His claim is possibly more plausible to me because I know I'm a townie, but I'm leaning towards thinking that JDodge is mafia trying to dodge a lynch.
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Post Post #803 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:48 am

Post by mneme »

Erg0: this is my suspicion. As you indicated, there's no reason for JDodge to claim if he is what he says -- therefore, he is lying. As an SK, he has no reason to claim SK -- but as mafia, he might be able to save his partner.

Now, who his partner is is an open question. You're the obvious possiblity, but by no means the only one -- TS, CTD, or (from a perspective that isn't mine) I could be bussing him -- but I'm inclined to doubt it, which would point to Stewie as the other good prospect.

Regardless, we get a lot of info (and a confirmed scum lynch) if we lynch JDodge.
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Post Post #804 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:58 am

Post by JDodge »

mneme wrote:Erg0: this is my suspicion. As you indicated, there's no reason for JDodge to claim if he is what he says -- therefore, he is lying. As an SK, he has no reason to claim SK -- but as mafia, he might be able to save his partner.
As mafia, if I had wanted to save my partner, why wouldn't I have just stayed the course? I was giving no info away by staying where I was.

I felt my lynch was inevitable, thus I claimed. Simple as that.
mneme wrote:Now, who his partner is is an open question. You're the obvious possiblity, but by no means the only one -- TS, CTD, or (from a perspective that isn't mine) I could be bussing him -- but I'm inclined to doubt it, which would point to Stewie as the other good prospect.
If you assume that TS is telling the truth, wouldn't that essentially mean Erg0 is confirmed to
not
be scum?
mneme wrote:Regardless, we get a lot of info (and a confirmed scum lynch) if we lynch JDodge.
If I'm lying, you have. Since I'm not, if you lynch me you might have just handed the game to the scum.
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Post Post #805 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 12:03 pm

Post by Erg0 »

I think it's time I stop trying to decode the setup and just vote for who I think is scum. My only remaining concern is what happens with the BCS thing - I suppose JDodge could be the only person looking for BCS candies after all. I really hope so, actually.

Vote: JDodge
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Post Post #806 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:27 pm

Post by ShadowLurker »

The "Final One of Day 3" Vote Count


JDodge
(4) - Toaster Strudel, CrashTextDummie Erg0,
Toaster Strudel
(1) - JDodge
Erg0
(1) - mneme

Not Voting
(1) - Stewie

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch, and 3 to no lynch!
:sadtorch Ken Hoang, A.D/Fuzzie, Cameron Ferris, Taj Johnson-George, Annie Duke, Patti Blagojevich, Maria/Tiffany :sadtorch
:torch Tammy/Victor, Dan/Jordan
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Post Post #807 (ISO) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:31 pm

Post by ShadowLurker »

After a long day, everyone describes what candy they are. However, more than a few candies smell something rancid about JDodge. They read his label and it clearly says Toffee. But wait a minute, this toffee is from China! Upon inspecting the label closer, they see diethylene glycol. JDodge is poisonous! They quickly DISCONTINUE JDodge and night falls...


JDodge,
Toffee - Mafia Godfather
DISCONTINUE'D Day 3
:sadtorch Ken Hoang, A.D/Fuzzie, Cameron Ferris, Taj Johnson-George, Annie Duke, Patti Blagojevich, Maria/Tiffany :sadtorch
:torch Tammy/Victor, Dan/Jordan
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Post Post #808 (ISO) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:04 am

Post by ShadowLurker »

The town anxiously wakes up, anticipating the worst. It seems like no one got much sleep last night especially CrashTextDummie, who is now just a puddle of brown.


CrashTextDummie,
Caramel - Mafia Goon
lost his sweetness Night 3

With 4 alive, it is 3 to lynch or 2 to nolynch!
:sadtorch Ken Hoang, A.D/Fuzzie, Cameron Ferris, Taj Johnson-George, Annie Duke, Patti Blagojevich, Maria/Tiffany :sadtorch
:torch Tammy/Victor, Dan/Jordan
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Post Post #809 (ISO) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 5:03 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Hooray for cross kills!

I'm hoping that this means we're down to three town plus the SK at this point. TS's story checks out, so it's a choice between mneme and Stewie for the SK. I think that claims are in order for both of them.
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Post Post #810 (ISO) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:02 pm

Post by mneme »

Erg0: nice try, but by my count, this would make you the third in the Chewy mafia.

vote: Erg0


I'm Skittles, a Normal Townie. I'm pretty sure the "cross-kills" are happening because the recruiting mafia was unable to get together -- presumably because TS stopped them.
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Post Post #811 (ISO) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:38 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Whoa there sparky - JDodge may have been
able
to recruit me, but he never actually did, thanks to TS. I'm still a townie.

Is it your belief that we had two separate killing groups that could join together during the game? That would be a highly unusual mechanic, akin to having a scum-recruitable SK. The most commonly used scum-recruitable role is Traitor, which doesn't grant a kill. I' not even that, unless I have a hidden win condition. We still have one killer at large, and it's not me.
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Post Post #812 (ISO) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:34 pm

Post by Nekka-Lucifer »

Hurrah... Go town!
GUESS WHO'S BACK?

Not me...
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Post Post #813 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:46 am

Post by Toaster Strudel »

mneme wrote:Erg0: nice try, but by my count, this would make you the third in the Chewy mafia.

vote: Erg0


I'm Skittles, a Normal Townie.
OMG, Skittles, rainbow colors and all, that's not chewy or brown, but sure is sweet.

There is no recruiting mafia.

Anyone notice that JDodge was a
Godfather
, NOT a "recruiter?"

Anyone notice that CTD (spectacular bus of JDodge, I have to admit) was a
Goon
, and NOT a "recruiter?"

I am pretty sure mneme is town, on account of flawless pro-town play throughout this game, no hesitation lynching JDodge, etc.

I'd like Stewie to give his candy type. His reluctance to lynch JDodge yesterday is hugely suspicious.

If the Mafia didn't know each other, an extra (a fourth?), recruitable SK might make sense. Either way Erg0 would be responsible for some anti-town night kills. Or maybe they had an option for a second nightkill to make up for the fact that they didn't know each other?

We're 4 players left. Best case scenario: we lynch a killer today, we go to night 3 players. If that's the last killer, and the second nightkills were by a vig, we've won. If not, one of us is night killed, and tomorrow there are 2 players left - a killer and a townie. So... it makes no difference whether we kill a mafiate or a SK.

It comes down to whether I believe that a player had to be recruited to the BCS mafia, or that the players merely had extra hoops to jump through to find each other, probably compensated with extra powers.

Because the night killing method was always the same "lost his sweetness" I am going to guess that the mafia simply had an option for an extra kill - depending on what, I have no idea - to make up for them not knowing each other.

I bet Erg0 is the last mafiate. I am not buying the recruiting business.

vote: Erg0
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Post Post #814 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 8:18 am

Post by Stewie »

I am a jawbreaker, townie.

There's four of us left. If two are mafia/sk and we lynch right, we lose. If we lynch wrong, we still have a chance of a crosskill saving us. If we don't lynch, we depend on a cross kill or a failed kill and one scum killing the other to have a chance.
If there's only one scum left, be it mafia or sk, and we lynch right, we win. We lynch wrong and we lose. We no lynch, and there would be three players left tomorrow, one of which is scum, and it would be a repeat of today, but with one less player to choose from.

I also believe that Erg0 is probably the right choice for today, I'll just let you comment on that first (when there's 4 players left it's a good time to talk about no lynching, I think it might be worth discussing).
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Post Post #815 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 9:14 am

Post by Erg0 »

If there were three mafia the game would have been over after day 2.
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Post Post #816 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 9:19 am

Post by Erg0 »

Also, TS: If JDodge wasn't a recruiter then what did you block him from doing on Night 2?
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Post Post #817 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 10:47 am

Post by Erg0 »

Apologies for triple post, I'll try to get everything into this one.
Erg0 wrote:If there were three mafia the game would have been over after day 2.
Small correction, I should have said the game would have been over after
night
2. There were 6 players alive yesterday, so if three of them were mafia then it was game over. Even if there were some special win condition that kept the game going, if I were mafia I could have stopped JDodge's lynch simply by refusing to vote for him, thus preventing the town from gaining a majority.

Someone is clearly lying about their role, because nothing in the claims explains why CTD didn't get a kill off last night. I can't see him losing his kill power just because the GF is dead. My bet would be that someone is NK immune, knowingly or unknowingly.

I'm about 90% sure that mneme is our SK (
SK
ittles?). If it were Stewie he could have almost certainly ended the game with a fast hammer and a kill.

I don't think that a no lynch will help, though from what I know it won't hurt. I'd expect TS to die overnight, which won't help much with the lynch choice. Based on the number of NKs we clearly
don't
have two killers left, so we cannot afford a mislynch under any circumstances (unless somebody is NK immune, but that's chancy).

Stewie: can you please tell us what it was that your role PM said about BCS candies? You breadcrumbed this a while ago but never followed up that I can see.

TS: can you please unvote for now, just in case I'm wrong and Stewie is the SK?

I feel a little trapped by my flavour here, because there's nothing I can say to defend my rolename's ties to the mafia. I would like people to actually take my play into account and see if they think it fits with someone who knew they were mafia all along.
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Post Post #818 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:33 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

I stop mafia from FINDING each other, not recruiting each other. Maybe the endgame is a bit screwed up for the mafia if they don't officially find each other, and maybe that's why we haven't end gamed?

Maybe CTD didn't send a kill. Maybe he used another power instead of a kill? Who knows.

I don't see how "no lynch" is going to help, since we have an opportunity to lynch a scum, namely, Erg0.
Stewie wrote:There's four of us left. If two are mafia/sk and we lynch right, we lose. If we lynch wrong, we still have a chance of a crosskill saving us. If we don't lynch, we depend on a cross kill or a failed kill and one scum killing the other to have a chance.
I hope that's not the case. There was only one kill last night. There may not be a crosskill at all. There is a chance that we'll be wiped out.
Stewie wrote:If there's only one scum left, be it mafia or sk, and we lynch right, we win. We lynch wrong and we lose. We no lynch, and there would be three players left tomorrow, one of which is scum, and it would be a repeat of today, but with one less player to choose from.
Weak town vs. weak mafia with extra kills might be the setup here. This is our only chance to win.
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Post Post #819 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:37 pm

Post by Erg0 »

So you're basically refusing to consider anything other than flavour in making your vote? Do you really think I would have claimed BCS if I knew that BCS = scum?
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Post Post #820 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:47 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Stewie wrote:I am a jawbreaker, townie.
Are you a NORMAL townie? Or does it say "townie?"

I had to look up jawbreakers... don't they look like humongous Skittles? Why do I have to be the most boring candy? I wish I were M&M's - with peanuts.
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Post Post #821 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:51 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Also, you didn't address this:
Erg0 wrote:Even if there were some special win condition that kept the game going, if I were mafia I could have stopped JDodge's lynch simply by refusing to vote for him, thus preventing the town from gaining a majority.
If I were scum I'd have known from the moment JDodge claimed that he was also scum. If we had two kills available at night then I could have forced a no lynch day 3, then two dead townies night 3 = game over. There are a million ways that we could won the game already under that setup.

On top of that, note how CTD and JDodge both tried to get me lynched yesterday after they couldn't recruit me. My innocence would have added credibility to JDodge's claim.

Seriously, you need to
look beyond the flavour
and see the actions of the players. Flavour does not equal truth in all cases, this is still a game of mafia under the candy names.
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Post Post #822 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:52 pm

Post by Toaster Strudel »

Erg0 wrote:So you're basically refusing to consider anything other than flavour in making your vote? Do you really think I would have claimed BCS if I knew that BCS = scum?
JDodge and yourself tried to pass each other off as masons... so yes, you would have claimed BCS, because it allowed you to telegraph your allegiance, a shortcut to whatever other method you might had to use at night.
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Post Post #823 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:53 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Toaster Strudel wrote:
Stewie wrote:I am a jawbreaker, townie.
Are you a NORMAL townie? Or does it say "townie?"
Would it help my case if I answered this question too?
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Post Post #824 (ISO) » Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:56 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Toaster Strudel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:So you're basically refusing to consider anything other than flavour in making your vote? Do you really think I would have claimed BCS if I knew that BCS = scum?
JDodge and yourself tried to pass each other off as masons... so yes, you would have claimed BCS, because it allowed you to telegraph your allegiance, a shortcut to whatever other method you might had to use at night.
Scum fakeclaiming mason does not happen nearly as often as you'd think, because it involves exposing definite ties between two scum. If one of us had been NKed or lynched then the other one was certain to die. The downside is far greater than the upside.
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