Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[skitter30]

Also, Skitter, where's the claim?

Oh here
Vt

[skitter30]

Omg math is actually scum

RCE+Ico

Lynch me today/tomorrow then speed lynch RCE and Ico.

I dont get it, this doesnt seem like a real position to have

I mean if RCE being jailed prevented the lynch and then Ico lied about being protective it makes sense under that train of logic.

No, not really

[skitter30]

Rce you can go next

[skitter30]

Math keeps doing this kinda icky thing where he's acting like it's obvious he was csaved (and conftowned) when it really isnt

[skitter30]

Math why arent u questioning my vote really ?

Not neighborized

[skitter30]

Umm I made a mistake
VOTE: RCE
this is superior to Math

do tell

[skitter30]

So given "normal" normal set-ups, I am very inclined to believe that the three claimed town PRs are in fact town.

I do not believe either of the protective targets can be considered cleared, given the potential conflict even if both are town.

Anyone disagree?

this is roughly where i'm at

[skitter30]

teacher what do u think about math ?

[skitter30]

teacher what do u think about math ?

I see your problems, but I also see a super consistent mindset. I think its town, and regardless dont think either it or RCE are todays lynch (I think we learn more about both's deepwolf potential by how they each position themselves around the wagons).

i don't see the super consistent mindset, i see him making up more things that don't make sense as people point out that what he's saying is kinda silly

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT 1.22
the worst (6): tris, skitter30, radiantCowbells, Plum, MathBlade, Flopz
Aristophanes (3): teacher, Bellaphant, iconeum
radiantCowbells (2): Xtoxm, the worst
Plum (1): RCEnigma

Not voting (1): Aristophanes

is this basically the same argument you made in the open?
i'm p sure that was you but could you just refresh my memory what the context was?

i still think ari is town
i don't see myself lynching there today

[skitter30]

I see an uber technical approach to language and looking for silly slips rather than holistic analysis. I see getting consistently caught in the rabbit hole of possibilities rather than thinking through what is probable.

ya so incidentally i think that these are behaviors that are more likely to come from scum then town
it doesn't really seem genuine to me, his scumteam theories are kinda ridiculous and are getting worse as time goes on and i'm having a hard time believing that he's sincere

[skitter30]

VC 1.17

teacher (4):

Volpe14

, NorwegianboyEE,

DrDolittle, Almost50

Wooper (3):

northsidegal, Wickedestjr, teacher

Bingle (3):

Wooper, skitter30, Egix96

skitter30 (2):

Bingle, pisskop

Almost50 (1):

Menalque

VC 1.20 (FINAL)

Bingle (7) LYNCH:

skitter30, Egix96,

DrDolittle, Volpe14, Almost50,

Wooper, pisskop

Wooper (4):

northsidegal, Wickedestjr, teacher, Bingle

Almost50 (1):

Menalque

Egix96 (1):

NorwegianboyEE

Like I dont see how this flip isnt town-indicative for me, yet nobody has done that kind of VCA. Then it makes me go back to the wooper wagon, and see two known!town (+me) on it, and that makes me think scum. I genuinely just dont see that kind of depth of analysis from Volpe, who certainly has been putting the time in -- so it makes me wonder if it is misspent.

PEDIT: On the both sides scum, thats a gut read. I think town was very successfully divided yesterday, with multiple potential deepwolves setting up as alternates. Re Egix, Im lazy deadsheeping and not worrying about them today.

iirc you were arguing here that wooper was scummy since from your pov nsg, teacher, wicked, bingle were all town

and wooper was town

so if that's where you're going again i'm not sure this argument has much merit

[skitter30]

actually wicked hadn't flipped yet, whatever

my point remains

[skitter30]

VC 1.14 and 1.22 (knowing Im green) make me particularly want to hit Ari, as do the D1 Tris associatives. How are you feeling about your meta case?

i'm not sure i see the significance of 1.14
the mid-day2 make shos look sus because saudade is on a cw? is that what you're arguing ?

[skitter30]

I see an uber technical approach to language and looking for silly slips rather than holistic analysis. I see getting consistently caught in the rabbit hole of possibilities rather than thinking through what is probable.

ya so incidentally i think that these are behaviors that are more likely to come from scum then town
it doesn't really seem genuine to me, his scumteam theories are kinda ridiculous and are getting worse as time goes on and i'm having a hard time believing that he's sincere

Ya, that might be a bit of it too. I almost feel like a nervous breakdown coming through the screen. Too scummy to be scum. Like the theories are just ridiculous and laughable, but then why be so moonshotty?

Bottom line, Im not going to stop the consensus if that's where its heading, and would even join it if needed. But I dont think its the best target for today, and certainly not the early day, since the slot is going to participate and react regardless.

idk i kinda dropped my math sr mostly becuase of the protection thing yesterday
and i think his posting today has been p bad and the sr came back

i feel like he's just throwing whatever sticks

[skitter30]

there's really no way i'd lynch ari to sort math, sorry

[skitter30]

actually wicked hadn't flipped yet, whatever

my point remains

And so does mine. If we had flipped town!Wooper at that point, it would have conf!scummed Wicked, especially upon my death.

Likewise, flip town!ari here, and to me it conf!scums Math in 1.14 and the Day 2 VCs.

ah i thought you were making a different point, that since you were townreading most of aris wagon he was scum
not that if ari flipped town you'd look at the one not-town on the wagon as scum

either way this doesn't really look condemning for ari imo and i don't think flipping him to sort someone else is a good idea so

[skitter30]

i'm about a page after the last time i was here, which was last night

i skimmed during the day so i have a general sense of what's going on and know that you want to talk to me, but i haven't read it in depth

Then why did I change to lock town from when you were scumreading before?

That inno wasn’t til the middle of today.

we had a whole argument starting here-ish about how he was scumreading me for not townreading him quickly enough upon hearing he may have been protected

i pointed out that the post he took exception with (where in i was still expressing some suspicion of math) happened before ico confirmed he was a doc and had been on him

and he kinda ignored this point and proceeded to scumread me for this for the rest of the day

[skitter30]

is the ari/math thing based off of anything other than that vc?

also by yesterday you mean the lynch wagon or something else ?

[skitter30]

idk
this is the first time i'm hearing of ari/math i think and i don't see super much in their behavior (outside of vca) to support that proposition
and i don't find this sort of vca to be as convincing as you do apparently tbh

i'm not really sure i buy/see this theory

also on the lynch wagon i think that flopz is most likely scum out of everyone

[skitter30]

yeah idk he's who i'm tr'ing the most beyond the prs
i don't see myself considering him a possible vote any time soon

also i probably just bus ari if i'm scum with him and rc is pushing him that hard day1, i imagine

[skitter30]

oh yeah that's another thing that i think is kinda ridiculous

[skitter30]

you too, have a good rest of your night!

also for me reminder that i might not be able to be around again till saturday night

[skitter30]

Just got home can’t keep up.

Traitor imho is required or Bella+Ico has to have a scum.

One protective + 1 shot strongman = balanced
Two protectives + perma strongman = balanced

Kill failed latter not possible. So traitor required and/or one scum in Bella/Ico required

Of the two Ico is most likely considering Xtom likely lynchbait

With all the townreads of Ari I was likely not the kill forcing RCE scum so RCE + Ico

Traitor is skitter because skitter knows my scum game and this ain’t it and RC was also beginning to suspect Skitter before he died

i don't even know what to say to this

[skitter30]

Almost no scum team here kills me unless I was right on Ari. I am considered the town idiot. I just kinda doubt I was right in two of my three day one reads

again it's possible you weren't the person tehy tried to kill ...

[skitter30]

or that they were prevented by being alien'd or something

there's no reason to think at this point that you were the one they tried to kill n1 and basing other scumreads on that and a bunch of other wild assumptions seems really bizarre

[skitter30]

yes, thank you

[skitter30]

@ico Think for a minute
Neighborizing scum has flipped.
What better boon to give scum than an ability to talk with a traitor.
My guess is that Xtom was their guess on the traitor.
The way teacher asks me gamestate while scumreading me tells me that he thinks I am the traitor.

That actually does make a lot of sense, I'll give you that. Scum have a *multitasking* neighboutizer. Why is that?
1. Because they other scums are not goons (or one is n-shot strongman)
2. Because it is intended that even if scum Tris/saudade is the one making the kill, he still will be able to neighboutizer - i.e. scum have motivation to get a hood.

This fits, actually

no, it really doesn't

there's really no universe where this game is 3+1, i would be *shocked* if that were the case
maaaaaybe 2+1 but scum already have to contend with two protectives that fuck with them getting the nk and a traitor is weaker than a full 3person scumteam so i think that's p unlikely unless last scum is like a full strongman or something.
even in that scenario tbh

a few assorted thoughts as i've been reading thru:

-> i really don't think ari is scum, and esp. not scum with saudade, despite him defending sauade yesterday; when i asked him to join in real time the night the wagon grew he was p cool with it and joined it with little resistance fairly immediately thereafter, and stayed throughout the rest of the day. rc was harping on it but iirc it wasn't a sure thing yet and if scum were bussing the way ari joined feels like the wrong time for a bus; i'd expect scum to hop on when it had grown some more and seemed more likely to go through

-> given saudade neighborizer i think that xtoxm is more likely than not town

-> i think math is significantly less likely to be town than rce. i think he's espousing nonsense and i honestly can't track how he's approaching this day at all

-> in contrast, i think that rce's blunt 'well idk what to tell but i didn't the nk n1' is kinda townie. also i think him not getting flustered is +town; i think that scum who gets caught in this kind of situation is less ~calm~ since they know they're mechanically screwed and are in a p tough spot and thus tend to be more survivalistic imo. he's kinda accepted the inevitability of his lynch and is instead trying to move town towards figuring out where to solve after his flip, which i don't think scum do here, i'd more expect them to be trying to talk their way of being the lynch. which he is kinda like doing but that's not his focus rn, it's more: ok fine, you flip me, where do you go next, and that mindset i think is townie

-> also wrt to the rce's nonflustered-ness: if he's scum he's the deep wolf - we all kinda agree that's why he would have done the nk n1, because in most teams he'd be least likely to be tracked or detected or whatever. so if he's the deepwolf, and he's going down today ... he's remarkably calm given the state that his team must be in rn. i think he'd be a little more desperate if he felt that the game was dependant on his survival

-> i think that there was something else i wanted to say but i'm blanking, it will probably come to me

[skitter30]

Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

oh the irony ...

[skitter30]

math if it's 3+1 we're in mylo today, right?
because if scum get an nk tonight the game is just over at 8: 3 + 1 + 4 which is parity

[skitter30]

scum!you is scum!ari imo

why do you see this ?

[skitter30]

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

+1 and aso skitter

xtomx's posting looks bad even when he does post.
I'm still in fvor of lynching RCE first but I really am sure that {Math, xtom, RCE} solves the game

Disagree. Rce and Skitter make more sense

Can compromise here

Skitter’s reads have been crap and she is usually better.

-> i don't think my reads have been crap, ty
-> for the six billionth time you seem to be basing your entire knowledge of how i play on one game that took place 2+ years ago; plz stop pointing at meta when you have no idea what you're talking about and ignore me when i point it out
-> i keep on trying to get you to explain why you scumread me but you keep poining at generalities ('she's scummy' 'her reads have been crap') or things that are categorically untrue ('her timeline for when she scumread me yesterday doesn't make sense') or things taht are kinda irrelevant ('i think she's scum because she's playing different than that one game we played together 2+ years ago, before several play style changes occured'). when i respond with details or specific questions you've ignored them

[skitter30]

Shos/flopz is a bullshit bracket to lynch in
It's actually scummy to even think it tbh

yes, it really is

[skitter30]

math if it's 3+1 we're in mylo today, right?
because if scum get an nk tonight the game is just over at 8: 3 + 1 + 4 which is parity

oh this was a brainfart, sorry
that would make tomorrow lylo

[skitter30]

1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town. Then people understand it is an honest theory with an honest mistake. And then 2) How your wagon formed and who was against it/for it and why will likely net us that scum.

i don't get it
how are you conftown if rce is town?

there's a universe where rce is town and got saved from being nk'd
bella and ico are p much conftown already, they don't need rce's townflip to reaffirm that

again i don't like how you keep sticking yourself in a conftown pool ?

[skitter30]

you talking about shos/flopz?

i sr flopz but there's about six billion better lynches today given the math/rce thing

also i don't particularly want to lynch shos anymore
or at least i'm not interested in him today

[skitter30]

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

i'm p sure your math is wrong

[skitter30]

Full strongman 1) improbable as no successful N1 kill
2) that’s where I was getting one of Bella/Ico scum but that got shot down as not “balanced”.
3) Incorrect. Xtom as scum says not neighborized here unless they tried to neighborize RCE and failed. With Saud being multitasking the action was very likely used making Xtom very likely town.
4) Both you and teacher may not understand my moonlogic but RCE is the lynch that we need atm. I may be bad at wordy words but I am good at trying really hard.
5) RCE if he knows he’s the lynch doesn’t give info. Here he’s not trying for reads. He tried to push me with a what if?
This is absolutely the right play why are you and teacher so against it?
6) Why are you assuming only one deep wolf? RCE plus you and/or teacher is highly probable here. I honestly expected to come back with RCEs flip when I left for the bay. Not resistance

for most of these i'm not sure how they follow from what i said, and i think u misunderstood my xtoxm point, since you wrote incorrect and then repeated my conclusion

i don't think i'm voting rce rn

i don't think i'm inherently assuming one deep wolf, but in the universe that rce is implicated as scum, it's because he did the nk n1, which would imply in that universe he was the deepest wolf. i think that if he's in that position he'd be more worried about flipping, and he just isn't

[skitter30]

I can’t explain it but you’re different.

Things pings are rare but worth listening to.

It’s not enough to push you but you definitely are off.

math you've been pushing me for those reasons for like an entire dayphase
and again you're ignoring the '2+ years have gone by and my playstyle has changed in that timespan' thing
and instead keep on falling back on 'but she feels different to me !!!' to push me
which makes me feel like you're just trying to shade me because you're repeatedly ignoring relevant context

[skitter30]

Oy,
Mathematician here
I think I'm qualified for this

We had 12 alive that night, 3 scum.

1. Any of the other scums perform kill: 66%
---if this is the case, then the target must have been either RCE or Math, 2/9*


This means the odds for RCE not being blocked as a reason for the lack of kill is 2*66/9=14.7%

That is assuming there was a kill.

yeah i'm not sure this math is right either actually

[skitter30]

I was waiting on Skitter but I missed her.

sorry, my life has been busier than usual recently
i'll be around for a bit more tonight

anything in particular u wanna talk to me about ?

[skitter30]

OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

i'd really much rather math instead

[skitter30]

which problematic posts

[skitter30]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

[skitter30]

also 'you feel different' is, at its essence, a meta push

[skitter30]

oh those
it's kinda silly to expect me to respond to that as either alignment given that i didn't write it
like what am i even supposed to say in response
what would be a 'good' answer from me in resposne to you citing that post?

Looking back at RC’s post and seeing what you agree/disagree with.
Looking at the context of the posts and seeing what benefit saud scum gains here.
If you think RCE is town and I am scum explaining how/why RCE was shot over RC and me and which scum does that.

Whatever world you’re pushing has to match facts. It seems like you’re avoiding them.

math you're scumreading me for things that other people said, expecting me to defend myself for other people's words that you scumread is silly

like there's no reasonable response i can give to 'math scumreading me because saudade hammered himself before rc could talk to skitter because he thought that skitter/rce were potential saudade partners', which is why i just ignored those posts the first tiem

i don't think i'm ignoring facts, ty
i think that given the information we have there ultimately isn't a way to conclusively determine which of {math was the nk} {rce was the nk} {rce was teh killer} universe we live in, and so for me i don't think that this is a particularly useful way to scumhunt because it will all ultimately boil down to wifom

there just isn't enough information to conclusively determine what actually happened that night
i agree that rce looks bad because he was alien'd on a night with no nk
does that make him scum (who tried to kill someone, possibly rc)? no, there's several other reasons why the nk may have gone missing there, and flipping him largely for that reason when i townread his play today seems silly to me

[skitter30]

OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

i'd really much rather math instead

Maths never going to happen today, and to be honest Im opposed to it too (the tonal thing). I dont think scum!math leads the mislynch this hard, nor is so self-righteous.

Id rather Ari, but thats never going to happen today either.

Shos has the highest equity and is a reasonable compromise. Look at the shos wagons. Look at the associatives btw tris and plum d1

i know that it's kinda unlikely for today, i'm kinda expressing my distate/dislike for the current options
i won't vote ari today
i don't want to vote rce
i guess i'd go shos over those two but that's not really where i want to go either

[skitter30]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

bella/ico - town
rce - i don't think scum reacts to this entire nk/alien thing the way he has
ari - i think is just town on meta
you - i'm not sure where it happened exactly but over the course of today (i.e. day3) you've become a townread too

which leaves {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}

math and flopz aren't doable today
and xtoxm i don't really townread on play but the neighborize kinda points to town
which kinda leaves shos. was townreading him for some of the stuff he was saying at daystart but as i mull it over i don't really remember why that was exactly

the very very early game thing pointed to {plum/tris}, and tris-slot/saudade did flip scum
and shos did very staunchly object to saudade in favor of xtoxm. i think that whole interaction means that shos/xtoxm can't be scum together
and saudade was trying to rile up rc as shos was getting wagoned

let me check daystart to see what i was thinking there, some parts of the game are starting to blur together in my head

[skitter30]

I no longer think that we should lynch shos first today. His resistance to the saudade wagon was gross, but it's sucu an explicitly bad position for scum to take on a partner that i'm no longer convinced that they're svs

Also shos's exasperation at the gamestate at eod yesterday seems townie

this.
looking at it again i'm not sure if his positioning yesterday was a good reason to townread him

i need to recheck the exasperation too

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

???
If you could please stop misrepping I'd appreciate it
If I had a working theory which I firmly believe in I'd be voting you

Am I?

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

I don't mind if this loynch fails to go through, NL is an eligible option the way I see it. You're all going to get a big fat I TOLD YOU SO when you say 'shit, what do we do with this one' in lategame regarding xtomx

What is it with you and no lynching?

What is it with you and xtoxm!?

Wtf is it with you and not wanting to see Saudade lynched!?!?!?!?

It's called
An opinion
Democrats, etc etc

Also it's 3.34 am haaaaaaaaaghhh

.....???????

12 alive
5 confirmed town

Means 4 scum in 7 players remaining

Do the math.

Intrigue me
How did we get to 5 conftowns
Just yesterday I was told it is 2
And then we agreed on 0

Why are you guys stupid

i think it was these posts (or more accurately, 1st, 3rd, and 4th)
but looking at them again i don't see them as townie as i did at the time

and the 2nd post reminded me about the no lynch thing which was god-awful

[skitter30]

ok i think i'm willing to explore this
VOTE: shos

for the record i explicitly do not think math is town, i just want that to be very clear

[skitter30]

cool i'll be around for a bit more but i have to go to sleep soon

[skitter30]

It’s not a matter of saying they could have and drop it. You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up here. If you want the shos wagon to take off you need to do that. Because right now it reads like the RC wagon yesterday. Me being pushing a wagon scum want rather than Saud. They hop on. RC pushes Saud. Saud is winning. Scum shop for counter wagons but RCE stays on RC hoping it would take off.

With the theory RCE scum having failed to kill RC the first time it’s much more likely they strongmanned RC to get rid of the PR and tried to kill him N1.

Until and unless you can explain what happens in a town RCE world to that kind of level it’s going to look like hogwash.

a few things:

-> i think you being saved is the least likely of the 3 universes

-> i am not at all convinced that rc was the obvious nk that night, given that at the end of day1 popular opinion was that rc was going to be lynched day2 on a duck townflip

-> i think that given that rce was p widely townread there's a decent chance he gets shot there, esp. if scum were angling for an rc mislynch the next day

-> i townread rce independantly on play and this nk thing doesn't really sway me super much since i can't know what happened that night and it's not something that is likely to get conclusively resolved. (i think that this interaction is what the detective is meant for, btw)

-> i fundementally don't think that pushing people off of the alien thing is a useful way of analyzing this situation, which is why i'm just not going down that path. it's wifom and is inherently based on assumptions that we cannot know to be true.

-> i am suspcious of you hard-pushing this

-> i doubt that saudade's slot had much influence on the nk given that he repped in after day2 started and tris had all but vanished at that point iirc

-> i agree that i probably am going wrong somewhere because i don't think that i can make a 3way team involving saudade out of my current scum pool. i don't think i'm wrong on rce tho

-> i do not think i will be lynching today given that i feel that most of the suspicion on his slot is based on a mechanical-maybe-guilty that cannot be verified, which is thus very abusable by scum

-> as far as i can tell people aren't actually scumreading him on play, his whole wagon basically sprung up because of the alien thing, which makes me suspicious of the motivations of this wagon

-> i think he's town on play

[skitter30]

I was waiting on Skitter but I missed her.

sorry, my life has been busier than usual recently
i'll be around for a bit more tonight

anything in particular u wanna talk to me about ?

I didn't have anything particular in mind. Wanted your thoughts on how the day was playing out, what you're current solve was, general stuff.

don't like the wagon on you rn
currently looking in {math, flopz, shos, xtoxm}, in roughly that order

[skitter30]

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

i'm p sure i made this point at some point
or at the very least i remember thinking it

VOTE: math

[skitter30]

Agreed with this. RCE today, if scum then skitter next. But with teacher's last couple posts i'm really doubting this coudl be wolf as well.

i feel like i'm living in some sort of bizarro land where only like teacher is makign sense

[skitter30]

Ico you shouldn't be townreading zxtomx for that post. Math is iioa and nai.

xtoxm still town

his claim adds town points as well

shos/flopz/xtoxm/math probably all town

this is problematic because that's like exactly my scum pool

[skitter30]

i feel like i'm running out of people that i want to wagon which means that i'm very desperately wrong somewhere, but i don't know where
and the two people i scumread the most aren't doable right now {math and flopz}

Skitter, you've been talking time and time again about you're scumreading me and I'm not really sure why. You kept bringing up about the "weird associations" between Me and RC but now he's been proven to be Town that doesn't hold water anymore. So can you tell me, at this moment in time, what are the reasons?

i don't think you and rc were tvt
it's the sort of read i'm not wrong on
there was something very odd on your end of the interactiosn where you just kinda accepted his obvtown read on you when you weren't, and then started backing up his pushes/positions.

it's mostly this ^

[skitter30]

Not to speak for Skitter but you had a reverse pocket thing going with yesterday. Mostly that you weren't concerned with RC being anything other than town white knighting you.

yeah this is another way of wording it ^

[skitter30]

VOTE: rce
L-1

yeah this is bad

again i would like to repeat as loudly as i can that i do not like this wagon and think it is scum-driven

[skitter30]

also what happened to ari?
i feel like he's fallen off the face of the planet this dayphase

[skitter30]

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

yes i would like to highlight this point as well ^

[skitter30]

I remain of the belief that Math-Ari contains 1 (and only 1) scum. I also think the board should revisit the broad VCAs I provided in 6953 -- the flopz wagon, the ari wagon, the shos wagon, and the EoD wagons in particular. IF Im alive, I will flesh out my take.

also i am not convinced i see / understand this take

but i am kinda starting to revisit my ari read - his disinterest in the game has kinda coincided with a scum lynch i'm realizing, which is moderately concerning me

[skitter30]

rce if you get lynched today where ought we be looking tomorrow ?

[skitter30]

thats kind of a left-handed compliment, but Ill take it I guess

oh sorry i didn't mean it back-handedly, i meant that everyone else's approach to today has just been like ????

[skitter30]

VOTE: math

Ari you need to explain that hammer. did u not look at a vc before making a substantive post for like the first time all dayphase?

[skitter30]

R u still townreading him?

[skitter30]

It was nonsensical and he scored a mislynch off of it so
I have a hard time seeing it come from town

He's also been exactly wrong on i think every lynch wagon we've had, including the scum one.

Holistically i do not see town

[skitter30]

He was on tw, wasnt on saudade, was on rce

I'm not sure what you're saying

[skitter30]

He thought rce was scum ?

[skitter30]

Ok how do u remember it then?

[skitter30]

Um ... no.
That's not what happened at all

He started with moonlogic, ultimately settled on rce scum, and proceeded to actively canvass for the wagon and repeatedly questioned why people werenr voting there. I can pull up loads of quotes in a few hours (i.e. when i'm not trying to get ready for work)

Like ... take another look at his iso yestercay if that's what you think

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

Yeah I'm never lynching teacher. Agree with everything he said on the last page.

Why aren’t you voting RCE? << Question from Titus to Bella

And I am down for letting this sort tomorrow.

Titus is in a bit of moon logic territory imho so I am talking with her first before explaining her reads.

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

Then if you don’t believe RCE is scum you have to push an alternative that is more probable than that.
Teacher is trying but still didn’t explain which other theory is more likely. I think he’s scum or town that’s doing scum’s work for them but he’s at least pushing Ari (I think?)

@Flopz I agree lately very little of what Titus has been saying makes sense. But she was getting annoyed at me not posting her opinions that didn’t make sense soooo :/ Damned if you do damned if you don’t.

@Ico I still favor RCE even with your shade. If RCE flips scum and you still wanna push me fine but I really don’t think that makes sense and if we get down to 1 or 2 scum then we will have room to mislynch me if you insist. I don’t really see how any of that follows but you do you.

RCE + Skitter or teacher makes so much more sense.

In short I really don’t think Xtom is scum but the only possible world Xtom is scum in is an RCE town one and that’s highly improbable

The idea behind it though is spot on which is why RCE should be lynched.

im mostly asleep but rolled over and read the maths from xtomx and shos

youre not wrong but youre not right either the problem loes in the odds youre ssyong 2/9

but theres no way in hell im killed n1 or flopz pr xtom or bella ormplim

these ppl were save candidates for a reason - there was a ++rand chance tp be killed

Okay...You can’t have it both ways.

If there is a ++rand chance RC (the only claimed PR) is shot then it’s a ++rand RCE tried to do it as the kill failed.
If you’re saying there isn’t ++rand chance RC is killed then the odds Xtom presented work and RCE was most likely the killer.

Both roads lead to RCE being the likely killer here.

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

That’s actually boiling down to
Me save
RCE save
RCE did the kill of anyone else (skit or RC) << This possibility in your list even if we use this narrowed down is the most likely.

Even if we assume that only those four options exist (which imho is incorrect)
That’s still 50% chance RCE is scum who was jailkept
25% chance I was shot and RCE alignment unknown
And 25% chance RCE was shot and town.

So what exactly is your issue with voting RCE here?

The gist of the point is that the RCE was scum jailkept is much much more likely than any other option.

RCE, who's scum with RC?

Teacher + a low poster. Probably within Bella/plum/Xtoxm. Well maybe not Xtoxm, there would probably be more enthusiasm for the game if he rolled scum with RC. Ari can still fit in there. I don't look at RC flipping the wagon at it's height onto TW and think man they look reeeaaallll townie for that.

@RCE, townreads please?

Same as yesterday

Math/Ico/skitter

If RCE is scum rule of three says Skitter probably is. (Yes I know that this gives scum ammo to mislynch me but if I am right on RCE scum we have the breathing room)

There is a lot of reason to discredit a confirmed slot.

Anyway RC, you're 3 for 3 on pushing for town lynches if Ari ends up town so why should your saudade read be considered different? If not for the fact they voted you.

Which is where a lot of your scumreads have come from this game. I started backing off early because you broke that pattern after I disengaged from interacting but it's picked back up since.

It's really disingenuous to push Math on the grounds that he was defending the shos wagon which was probably scum and now that they've called you town, you called Math out as leading a mislynch if he votes shos.

Ewwwwwwwwww

Ari you can keep babysitting him might as well change his diaper in a while
Ico you can keep being.. well you, like that one time you replaced into my game called all the scum town and all the town scum and that was it
skitter30???? ever since last game your reads were horse shit not gonna lie and if it werent for you getting night killed we'd never lynch Wake88 and won the game at lylo
MathBlade I've no qualms genuine attempts to read through this horseshit

Rule of three. Rule of three. The same rule of three as RCE before.
Plus the shade here was imho an attempt at distancing here and an attempt to buddy me.

If there is no traitor then RCE + Skitter is hella likely.

Math im not meaning to offend with this statement however.

Once I flip I think you need to consider backing down from wanting to be towns voice, and play a supporting role instead. I think this is in the best interest of town.

If you flip town then I have no regrets over it.

It would be necessary because of the jailkeep claim.
I would have zero regrets over it.

I would be sad sure.

Also I am not “the voice”.

I gave my opinion and others agree/disagree.

Everyone disagrees with my traitor theory. Fine. I may take a different road to get there but that doesn’t make me wrong.

Your lynch is needed. And I am pretty sure you’re scum.

Also, RCE never was willing to consider the possibility of Math being scum today
Saudade never was willing to consider the possibility of Math being scum today.
Shos also entered and didn't say much about it but pretty handily discredited my Math scumread
Bella too I think never was willing to consider Math scum today
Xtoxm... hasn't really taken a stance on anything

Obviously Iconeum exists and has the ~inno~
Math is math

Of the remaining players
Teacher thought Math scum made more sense than me at some point.
Skitter was getting frustrated and pissed off and thought he might be scum.
Ari actually voted him at one point.
I went after Mathblade at one point.
Flopz discredited the likelihood of Math being the protect which again seems significantly likely to come from T than S in this situation.

I really think Math has the illusion that their play was obvtown and deserves to be townread because all the scum players were never considering him and is only hunting in the pool of people that went after him even thought that's the exact opposite of what's happening here.

@Teacher Look here
RC says RCE scum
(He was imho wrong on Skitter here and contradicted his one of Skitter/Ari here but)
You get the jist and look at why.

Seriously RCE and RC had their own issues and back and forth that convinced me to vote RCE a bit.

RCE is scum here people.

Spoiler: straws grasping at yet more elusive straws

Vote Count 3.5

RCEnigma

(3): MathBlade, Flopz, shos

MathBlade

(1): skitter30

Not Voting (6): RCEnigma, Aristophanes, Bellaphant, Xtoxm, teacher, Iconeum

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 11 PM PST on the 12th, in (expired on 2020-02-13 03:00:00).

This is definitely not enough votes on RCE.
If you’re not on RCE people you need to explain why.

Like if I could nuke RCE,Teacher,and Skitter and see their flips I think the game is over.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

i'm p sure your math is wrong

Then what is the right math?

Because let’s assume there’s a typo. The general intent RCE is very likely scum is still there.

Why are you arguing minutia versus the actual point?

also 'you feel different' is, at its essence, a meta push

Which is why I am not doing that. I am trying to explain.

Pretty much you and teacher both have interacted with RCE posts and just ignored the probable and substituted your own reality.

RCE is probably scum. If you want to ignore that in favor of me or shos being scum you have to provide a case for it.

Can’t respond due to promise but I would like a chance to respond to teacher before day end assuming RCE is scum like I think he is so we can sort Teacher and Skitter.

Like i'm baffled that you can look at this and tell me math didnt think rce was scum

[skitter30]

Fuck me something happened with the spoiler tag

Yeah @ico

[skitter30]

Yes

And my point that i started off with is that he was exactly wrong *every* day, and not just yesterday

Ok i need to get ready for work now

I want ari to explain how that hammer happened when he shows up

[skitter30]

Ya and i think i mentioned at dayend that your list of townreads exactly coincided with the people i wasnt townbinning, and since the entire wagon comprised of such people, i was incredibly sceptical

[skitter30]

I find flipping math or Ari, with a slight pref to ari tbh. I think scum lynched off wagon because both were on but haven’t done detailed/revised vcs yet.

I strongly prefer math and am reconsidering ari

[skitter30]

Have we massclaimed yet? Can we consider if it is beneficial to nolynch this day, get another person killed and limit our lynch pool?

Shos i'm actually baffled how you can be this badly misinformed

You participated in a massclaim yesterday, remember?

Nolynching is still, and always has been, an awful idea

[skitter30]

Why lynch a functional vt over doc?

Skit, can you speak to Icos scum meta?

I’ve hard hard townread the play this game, but the nk is ????, which of course is also wine.

I dont know what his scumplay looks like really, tbh, but i think his play has been p townie here

With the bella kill the thought did cross my mind tho, yeah

But it's not something that we go after today, i think. If he doesnt die tonight too i would consider this universe a possibility, but i think it's tomorrow's problem after seeing who dies tonight

If he's scum it would have to be with math tho, i think
Not sure why the game plays out the way it did wrt the protective claims/missing nk (esp. Day2) otherwise

[skitter30]

VOTE: math

Ari you need to explain that hammer. did u not look at a vc before making a substantive post for like the first time all dayphase?

I actually didn't because I am, unsurprisingly, a dumbass.

It was very remiss of be, but I will admislt that I was lind of okay with it. Looked like it should have been a red flip but it wasn't.

I am starting to think shos/math is the final pairing but I don't know what to say about it yet.

Yeah this is not a good look for you, to be putting it mildly

[skitter30]

300!

Nice pagetop

[skitter30]

It’s rather telling shos hasn’t caught up even just on the last day yet was responding. He’s clearly faking it. Between that and the hammer I am just gonna go with I was shot for being 3/3 on day one and shos/Ari.

Skitter if you’re going to mislynch me do it now or join me on shos or Ari please.

I agree with u on shos, actually. It looks fake that he's saying he doesnt remember things like massclaim happening when i know he participated in it.

@shos is hito/rest of your team still reading?

Also ur still my preferred lynch by a fairly large margin

[skitter30]

But obviously my reads are donkey ballz because 1) i'm alive and 2 ) RCE flipped town.

I don't fucking know right now who scum is. Have no clue.

Yeah i think that this may have been why they picked bella over u

[skitter30]

Much as I hate saying this based on how bad Skitter reads me she is probably town just with a math is scum bias.

I dont think i'm tunneled, i just think ur scum

[skitter30]

Mainly I am more sure on Ari but Titus controls my vote :/

what's the ari scumcase?

1) I was tunneling Ari end of day one
2) Ari has done jack crap all game
3) Ari spent most if not all D1 buddying RC and me
4) Worth repeating point 2 Ari has done nothing all game
5-99) Dat hammer when teacher and I were talking. Granted we probably still would have lynched RCE but scumAri probably didn’t want teacher and me trying to meld.

The only point here that i think is valid is the last one

[skitter30]

what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?

Math >>>>> shos >>> ari

[skitter30]

And there in lies the problem if I am wrong and if Skitter scumreads me we lose.

The thing js that i dont think we lose by lynching you.

Who do u prioritize in ari/shos?

[skitter30]

what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?

Math >>>>> shos >>> ari

Reverse the triangles for me.

Ari i guess he had that super bad hammer but otherwise i wasnt really scumreading his play, and i'm not sure if the hammer outweighs everything else

I'm a little nervous that i'm getting blinded by a meta read and it's not letting me re-evaluate properly

[skitter30]

Skitter stop prancing around like you own the thread. You are still a suspect.

Nice shade

[skitter30]

By Poe, I am left with Ari/math/xtom. Admittedly I don't actually scumread those three (only xtomx), but I truly hard townread teacher and Skittles and it appears that everyone believes ico so .

I think a NL asap is best; if there's actually a doc, scum will shoot him because another successful doc gets is another mislynch. If they don't, we get valuable info.

A few things:

1. Again, is hito/your team still reading?
2. I feel like nothing will be gained out of no-lynching today beyind ico dying, if we're in mylo tom and nolynch doing so will at least have the effect of removing someone from consideration. I think it's scummy of u to keep suggesting it
3. What's your read on flopz? The fact that like nobody is worried about him concerns me
4. If your scumpool is ari/math/xtoxm can i interest u in voting math?

[skitter30]

*rereading that isnt ur scumpool, but poe pool, sorry

[skitter30]

My read on u didnt really change so much as my reads on others have worsened and i'm prioritizing them

Who do u want to lynch today?

[skitter30]

Also, the constant weird remarks in Skitters direction would just add unnecesary attention to the pair of them than anything else tbh.

well given past history if he didn't do this that would have been a dead give-away he was scum to me

i would vastly prefer math but i am warming up to the idea of a shos vote

[skitter30]

I'm not gonna push Skitter anymore after looking at some old Sausage posts. Where he votes her (4299 4306) and as soon as he realises the wagon is going nowhere, is the first to jump ship and then starts hard TRing her (4543 and beyond). I don't think Scum would ever do that to a partner, that would be really weird. Also, the constant weird remarks in Skitters direction would just add unnecesary attention to the pair of them than anything else tbh.

Who do you scumread then?

[skitter30]

VLA fever 101

Feel better!

[skitter30]

i feel like this game has curiously stalled

[skitter30]

If ico is town all we accomplished was losing a town voice overnight

[skitter30]

Shos does ur team support no-lynching here or is this just you?

[skitter30]

If shos is scum, I think that p much clears the both of you. Skitter reconsidering to shos, and math hard pushing shos today could really help solve this game. Skitter, despite maths shenanigans previous day, how do you feel about him pushing shos like this? @Math, your thoughts on skitter's feelings wrt shos?

shos's string of posting today has been awful, and i am indeed considering voting there
i do not townread math tho, i still think he's scum, and would vastly prefer him, and the fact that math wants him makes me wary.
why are you so sure math's town?

[skitter30]

@Shos -- why arent you voting rn?

Same @Ari

I am on, and will be rejoining, in about 1.5 hrs. Grades were due today -- my kiddos again did number 1 in our network of schools, so yay!

oh sweet, 'grats

p sure shos is going to tell you he wants a nolynch

ari seems to have disappeared again

[skitter30]

@Skitter, math's entire solve right now is literally this, minus himself obviously. Like, literaly shos + ari. Can you at least engage with math over that?

i currently think that scum is most likely in {math, ari, shos} and that scum in that group are realizing they're cornered and are trying to distance

[skitter30]

shos is being kinda scary-bad rn tho

[skitter30]

also why have we all collectively removed flopz out of the lynchpool again?
can someone explain why they're townreading him plz

[skitter30]

..I asked hito for his notes about ari/xtomx, we'll see what he brings up lol


Do I have agreement that we NL today and choose the lynch of tomorrow?

yes, i would like to hear more about ari/xtoxm, plz prod hito

and no, we are not remotely in agreement that we nl tomorrow and choose the lynch tomorrow, stop trying to make this a thing

[skitter30]

My thoughts on Skitter’s feelings are she has seen me as scum
She is rightfully paranoid of my scum game but she has a huge bias she needs to work through

i really don't think i'm biased tho, i don't understand how your like entire day3 comes from town

[skitter30]

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

@math:

can you get titus to explain this vc again?
if it's shos+flopz+saudade scared of me trying to lynch shos why weren't flopz + shos on me here, why were they wool-gathering on ari and not voting

also i don't udnerstand how the nka points to shos and flopz in particular

[skitter30]

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

i have a math background ...
given that nobody is seriously considering ico as a possible lynch today, i think it's inherently suboptimal

[skitter30]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

[skitter30]

It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.

this is fallacious and ignores the notion that jk's tend to act as docs if more than one scum is alive

[skitter30]

also it's not just the rce lynch, it's the whole nonsensical team-spouting, traitor, setup-spec thing that you did
and that you were trying to push that you were conftown day2, which i still hate

[skitter30]

random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

[skitter30]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

Math is tonal/gut. Like I believe he believes this crap.

Flopz Im just kinda leaving to the side of my solves. Its part of why I want Ari today. I find Ari-Shos scummier than Math-Flopz on both players, and I think one of those is the the team.

surprisngly enough i kinda feel that for shos?
like he actually believes the no-lynch stuff he's spouting?

i was asking about his team because i kinda want to know if the rest of them think this is a good idea too

i don't feel like math actually believes most of this

flopz ... it just bothers me that everyone is leaving him to the side
ari ... had an awful hammer but like otherwise i'm not sure i scumread
i'm more worried that he's not around anymore than like anything else; it belies a lack of motivation that i find concerning and would kinda make sense if he were scum here. but like his day1-day2 i thought were incredibly townie for him

[skitter30]

And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

Also, Skit, this is actually part of why I TR Math. I do think he makes more sense as the N1 than RCE. Both were unitownread, but Math was both more vocal himself, and more vocally townread by others.

math could u remind me what your day1 reads were again?
i know you said it a bunch of times but since you're around it would help me a bit

[skitter30]

random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

Like a change in your playstyle or a change in somethine else? Not sure Im following this one.

yeah just vague commentary on my playstyle changes over like 3+ years, not really relevant to this game or anything

[skitter30]

flopz ... it just bothers me that everyone is leaving him to the side

like this bothers me a lot actually because this is kinda exactly how scum slide into lylo and win
i'm kinda baffled that he's being largely townread by a couple of people and ignored otherwise but i can't really get anyone to articulate a townread on him

[skitter30]

@Skitter Titus says she’s with her goddaughter atm and doesn’t have her notes and she will get to me tomorrow and I hopefully will be available to answer then.

I still do believe that there’s definitely here we are missing
And yes I do believe that was accurate based upon how day one ended

If you were me you’d do the same. Right now teacher is literally pushing a theory that I was right day one. Based on what we knew I was likely shot. That’s still the most likely world.

That’s still what makes sense with a scum neighborizer.

Pedit I quoted it earlier give me a bit to find my quote I am posting slower due to flu.

kk i hope she has a good time with her goddaughter and that u feel better soon, being sick sucks

so u think u were shot for ur reads?
can you explain what you mean wrt the scum neighborizer?

[skitter30]

Yea, but total lack of presence D3 and D4 is indeed troubling. So are the feelings of the kills, even if some of them were cabined. Im also going to be brining back up the D1 associatives with him and Trisaudade when I get through my general catchup. Basically Im on Ari because I believe it scum AND because I believe it will convict Math if its not. I cant think of any other lynch that will have that kind of combined effect for me.

yes, lack of presence + day3 hammer i find the most concerning
i'm not sure i buy the arguments tying any of {ari, shos, flopz} in particular to the nks tbh

i was feeling kinda good about scum being in {ari, shos, math} but flopz posting again reminded me that like ... i don't know why he's not in the lynchpool
and shos is being awful but i don't know if scum is that bad. it's almost like a too scummy to be scum type thing where he's like starting to wrap around again as town almost because like ... i feel like scum gives this up by now almost?

i think that ico/xtoxm/teacher are town so for me rn i'm mostly looking in the other 4

pedit sigh

[skitter30]

i think that out of {ari, shos, math}, ari is my least-preferred lynch; the demotivation could be scum-indicative, but could also be irl-indicative
i almost want flopz before him actually.

like flopz is just occupying this weird middle-ground and i'm just nervous that if everyone is just like 'lol flopz he's just like ~around~' he can use that to waltz to a win if he's scum and literally no one is willing to push him
like i'd feel better if there wasn't this weird resistance to even exploring the idea, but everyone seems fine to just shove him to the side and just kinda like ignore the slot

i think that out of everything u wrote above wrt ari the trisaudade associatives might be the part that i'm the least familiar with (and thus might find potentially the most convincing out of everything in that post), could u give me the highlights of this point?

[skitter30]

so what, you were nk'd so that scum could push the tvs narrative?

[skitter30]

so what, you were nk'd so that scum could push the tvs narrative?

That and d1 I scumread Tris and Plum and Ari which coincidentally looked like the scum team before RC demanded the worst.

i'm not sure tris/plum/ari actually make sense given how the day1 ari wagon went

also if scum wanted to push the tvs narrative they would have needed to try to mislynch rc day2 which didn't really happen

[skitter30]

@Skit, I saw you on the associatives. It will happen but this is a hell of a game to slog through.....

i know, sorry, i don't really want to look at most of day1/day2 either, take your time

if you just have general things 'how ari was behaving when xyz happened' without like quoting posts that would be good too

[skitter30]

Spoiler: mayonnaise vivisect

Vote Count 1.17

Aristophanes

(4): MathBlade, teacher, Flopz, skitter30

RadiantCowbells

(2): Xtoxm, the worst

the worst

(2): tris, RadiantCowbells

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

Flopz

(1): Aristophanes

tris

(1): Plum

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

Spoiler: phenomenology aardvark

Vote Count 1.18

Aristophanes

(4): MathBlade, teacher, Flopz, skitter30

RadiantCowbells

(3): Xtoxm, the worst, Aristophanes

the worst

(2): tris, RadiantCowbells

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

tris

(1): Plum

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

Spoiler: glistening the grass falls down down below

Vote Count 1.19

the worst

(5): tris, skitter30, RadiantCowbells, Plum, MathBlade

RadiantCowbells

(3): Xtoxm, the worst, Aristophanes

Aristophanes

(2): teacher, Flopz

Plum

(1): RCEnigma

Not voting (2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

what were scum doing here-ish if it's ari/tris/plum?

[skitter30]

sorry, more from like 1.12-1.19 than just the ones i quoted

[skitter30]

ari was very very very nearly lynched tho
so neither tried to form any cw and were content to just lurk it out and watch him get wagoned?

[skitter30]

also i'm getting kinda tired, will prob be bouncing soonish

[skitter30]

ari was very very very nearly lynched tho
so neither tried to form any cw and were content to just lurk it out and watch him get wagoned?

Faith in RC being RC and destroying his early game wagons?

i mean, this is a remarkably chancy path to take if they're scum here, i think?

[skitter30]

The setup as written penalizes scum for using the power assuming the other two are vanilla. Saudade could be guiltied by RC for multitasking if he uses tracker. Something doesn’t add up.

Why are you assuming the other two are vanilla? Im assuming a strongman N-shot.

i guess my question is if there's a n-shot strongman why did the kill fail n1 ?

@math do u currently think today is mylo y/n

[skitter30]

also it's not just the rce lynch, it's the whole nonsensical team-spouting, traitor, setup-spec thing that you did
and that you were trying to push that you were conftown day2, which i still hate

hate yes, but do you actually scumread that? i don't

his pushing himself as conftown D2 speaks louder as town then scum?

his setup spec, while hilarious, didn't read as scummy to me

no, i think taht this comes from scum more often than from town
also, i dislike the setup spec because it's making us go down wild goose chases that are quite possibly wrong.
like, for example, the rce thing

[skitter30]

my current opinion on shos is that he could possible be town who needs to start getting his shit together

that's kinda where i'm at
his content is bad af but his tone is kinda townie

[skitter30]

Ico, I have to do grading stuff, but can you talk about me/skit? Like I think your reads were upside down, but I have a hard time seeing that train of thought and Im surprised you arent testing the waters in any way with either of us.

i'm constantly doubting both your slots, but i end up going in circles

it's always 'skitter pushed that saud wagon so hard' and 'teacher just isn't scum here'

IIRC, and I havent checked this, Skit didnt push Saud that hard. In fact, I think she initially pushed against it for a bit (pref'ing shos, and saying shed be able to read saud in time) and flipped only when momentum felt strong that way. That was my broad takeaway from that time, but Im not double checking it

i think ur right, i'm p sure rc led it and i supported it as he pushed it, i did help get ari and a few other votes on it tho iirc

[skitter30]

shos has this cocky 'y'all are just idiots for disagreeing with me and thinking that i'm scum here and for thinking that anything but a no lynch is a good idea' tone which probably doesn't come from scum, i think

like the overall exasperation / 'what did i do to make me have to put up with this nonsense' vibes feel townie to me

he's still wrong on no-lynch tho and he needs to commit to a sr

[skitter30]

you're not really treating today like mylo @math

[skitter30]

To anyone scumreading Ari:

how do you feel about his relation to the saud lynch?

@shos in particular, you think Ari is scum. Like, your only main scumread right now?
He was focused on lynching scum, and he kept calling you out for going against what is now certain a scum wagon. Yet you scumread him because PoE?

iirc i had to talk him into it and he was initially rather resistant

[skitter30]

you're not really treating today like mylo @math

This is correct.

Because that’s literally impossible when no one else does. If I am voting my scumread it has the same effect as treating it as mylo anyway.

ok so ur basically willing to bet the game on scum!shos?

[skitter30]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

math:
-i like the moonlogic and deepwolf hunting
-i like what titus has been saying thru him
-tr me before the cool kids were doing it
-gut

also have respect for titus vca and dont think it should be dismissed out of hand. she was shouted down over her vca read on nacl for multiple days in the open.

when did he start townreading you?

[skitter30]

To anyone scumreading Ari:

how do you feel about his relation to the saud lynch?

@shos in particular, you think Ari is scum. Like, your only main scumread right now?
He was focused on lynching scum, and he kept calling you out for going against what is now certain a scum wagon. Yet you scumread him because PoE?

iirc i had to talk him into it and he was initially rather resistant

Ari was and is resistant to do anything all game lol

Pedit yes

i don't think this entirely accurately describes ari's game, no
and your confidence on scum!shos here is making me wary tbh
his content is bad but i really don't think his tone comes from scum here?

[skitter30]

Please enlighten me. If my memory serves right, and correct me if I'm wrong because indeed my memory of that part of the game is blurry - Math jumped the opportunity to make himself appear conftown, and still pushed the angle of him-conf-town even despite the jailkeeper claim. Don't you think this is EXACTLY what scum would do when given the opportunity? Town can never ever find out how the kill failed if there was one at all, and if this bases him as conftown it's good to coast to endgame. Definitely worth the attempt.

^

[skitter30]

But waaait? I hear you say: what if Math is scum and shos is town?
Then Xtom has to be town/not group scum as mentioned before as a neighborize use would have happened as scum don’t shoot who they neighborize.

yes this is kinda the univers i think we're living in

pedit not now, i'm talking about day2
although in literally the post i'm quoting above (or the post before that) you have a conclusion pointing to how we ought to be tr'ing you mechanically too, but whatever

[skitter30]

And yes quite frankly unless you believe RCE shot and Xtom neighborized I am still conf town based on N1

And if you do believe the former then use that as a starting spot and ask why Xtom neighborized by scum?

Assume I am scum then what do you learn about N1?

i have no idea what why scum may have chosen to neighborize xtoxm
but i'm assuming they didn't no-neighborize

so they either nk'd you and neighborized rce
or they nk'd rce and neighborized xtoxm

those are kinda the only two possibilities
or i guess technically rc could have been neighborized but i imagine he would have claimed that if that had been a thing

[skitter30]

if you're town i think that they would have nk'd rce over you to perpetuate a math/rc conflict tbh

[skitter30]

No one else has claimed to be neighborized. Therefore one of two options:
1) Xtom is telling the truth and cannot be group scum. Therefore town or traitor.
2) Xtom is lying and scum and therefore RCE was neighborize target and then that makes me the shot as scum don’t kill who they neighborize.

do you think we live in unvierse 1 or 2

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

an out for what?

i didn't know that post was a crime

an out for what?

Random fluff. Random post + disappear = bad.

Random fluff + response = good

Random fluff + Garcia = ???

Garcia? What?

It's not like the party hat in the avatar changes that's it's fluff

good god maybe math was on to something
math/shos/saudade is never a thing at least

[skitter30]

So first option nk me and neighborize RCE. >> This means that I as scum would shoot myself N1 and have Ico conveniently claim to “save” me and Xtom conviently lie and say neighborize with no traitor so you’d have at least one town lie for no reason whatsoever ever so here let’s go with the simpler option that I am town.

Second option NK’d RCE and neighborized Xtom+RCE is much more logical if you want to keep up I am scum

i'm literally saying we live in the second universe

(actually i'm saying that it's p difficult to know what happened but that the second universe is much more likely)

[skitter30]

ok tris' early iso actually is anti-associative with math
but + associative with shos and ari

[skitter30]

right, ok, i'm reminded why i thought plum + tris was a thing

math how do u feel about distancing / bussing

[skitter30]

i'll look at plum next since that's the wagon that's growing right now

teacher - I am going to tentatively give some points to for his explanation for stating a preference to Xtoxm over Flopz wagon his morning (that statement made shortly before Flopz's new posts)

What? why would he get points for that. this seems like a weird reason to take someone off the list of possible lynches.

VOTE: the worst

and this was gross too
(i think that flopz pointed this out already today)

[skitter30]

and there was also like that whole thing at the start of day2 where i couldn't get a plum/shos thing to happen whatsoever

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT 2.5
Aristophanes (3): Flopz, te acher,

Iconeum

shos (3): skitter30, Aristophanes,

RadiantCowbells

RadiantCowbells

(1):

RCEnigma

skitter30 (1): MathBlade

Not voting (4): shos,

Bellaphant

, Xtoxm,

Saudade

but like what are scum even doing here?

iirc this is where the shos wagon was stalling and i couldn't make that happen
but shos isn't voting
saudade isn't voting
i think that this is kinda incriminatory for math and flopz
(and i guess teacher too technically but i think he's town)

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

Spoiler: the alluringly subtle fragrance of an ouroboros

Vote Count 2.6

skitter30

(4): MathBlade, Iconeum, Saudade, Xtoxm

shos

(2): skitter30, RadiantCowbells

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(1): RCEnigma

MathBlade

(1): Aristophanes

Not voting (2): shos, Bellaphant

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Spoiler: iliad murmuring within

Vote Count 2.7

shos

(3): skitter30, RadiantCowbells, Aristophanes

RadiantCowbells

(3): RCEnigma, Iconeum, MathBlade

Aristophanes

(2): Flopz, teacher

skitter30

(1): Xtoxm

Not voting (3): shos, Bellaphant, Saudade

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Spoiler: an elk contemplating eternity

Vote Count 2.8

shos

(5): skitter30, Aristophanes, Iconeum, RCEnigma, teacher

RadiantCowbells

(2): MathBlade, Saudade

Aristophanes

(1): Flopz

Iconeum

(1): shos

Not voting (3): Bellaphant, Xtoxm, RadiantCowbells

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to 4 PM PST on January 31st, in (expired on 2020-01-31 20:00:00).

Flopz has been prodded; as he is V/LA I will not immediately replace him if the prod is not answered.

these are all like incriminatory for math ...

if shos is scum with saudade what the fuck is he even trying to do by voting ico

[skitter30]

fuck broke the spoiler tags agian, sorry

[skitter30]

@implo

can you fix the spoiler tags plz? something weird happened

[skitter30]

It’s called a null vote. It’s a vote that gives no information to anyone since shos at that point had no clout to push anyone. Any push he did would reek of scum teammates coaching.

but it would have been significantly better for him if he had just like ... voted his cw or something

his slots early game is bad, and wagonomics around him like early day2 point to scum

but his play (specifically tone) today just makes me think town?

i'm kinda conflicted and i think i need to do some more digging in plum's early game and at saudade's iso

but i need to bounce now, i have an appointment shortly

[skitter30]

Mods can’t edit posts especially in team mafia Skitter.
(I was a team mafia mod last year)

ah, in like the other queues mods can usually, didn't see why it would be different here

[skitter30]

I am hoping that if I help her build a case against me then she will see I can’t have any partners and then maybe that will bring her out of her tunnel.

summarize for me why you can't have any partners

[skitter30]

@teacher @ico am i really just tunneled here?

[skitter30]

can u explain the tris/flopz/shos bit again, i didn't follow that part

i don't need you/teacher

[skitter30]

aaaaaarrrrrriiiii

[skitter30]

In a world where my gut is right, and both shos and math (do you TvT read those 2?) are town, who is scum?

Ari/flopz/xtoxm solves the game then, right?

i'm not sure i can confidentally say that math/shos is tvt
i'm confident they aren't svs and that's it

in ari/flopz/xtoxm i'd want flopz the most
how are you reading flopz again?

[skitter30]

Shos has pushed no lynch for how long now?

And that’s with some wagon pressure?

Do you expect shos to all of a sudden give “actual” reads anytime soon? No one is making him and since he is scum it’s in his team’s best interest for him to wet noodle. I don’t see him giving a single read or doing jack.

People get townreads by being town helping town and contributing. That’s how this works.

but the exasperation is townie tho, that's why i'm having trouble ...

[skitter30]

Can we go over the townblock again?

Ico/Math/skitter/teacher

--

all scum in shos/ari/xtoxm/flopz?

i'm still not solid on town!math
otherwise i agree

[skitter30]

@7874: clearly it did buy him most of the game's townreads based on this logcal fallacy. Add the unprovability of anything said in that context and chaching? Profit!

Also if you really want some hard scumreads, my current go is VOTE: math and xtomx/Ari as partner.

i'm confused why you're going math over xtoxm here given ur xtoxm stance

[skitter30]

VOTE: flopz
i don't feel great about my math vote anymore
and i'm not convinced that shos is scum either

i'm at the point where i am willing to do ari as well

[skitter30]

actually UNVOTE:
i need to think about this some more when i'm not as tired

the stalled gamestate is starting to creep me out actually
like this sort of thing happens when scum are either content with the gamestate or when they're relectant to push through a scum lynch and i don't know which way i ought to be reading this rn

[skitter30]

Do u wanna like place a vote or push scum or something ... ?

[skitter30]

Or say what ur solve is or who you're not willing to vote or like do anything at all ... ?

[skitter30]

Who is, then?

I'm really really tempted to go Ari.

I think i am willing to explore this
VOTE: ari

Ari pushed saud pretty hard tho

not saying it's impossible that was a bus

and shos has soooo much stuff that can get him lynched, including his Association to the saud lynch

ehhhh

Ari didnt push saudade that hard, actually
He resisted it p hard and iirc wrote up a whole post explaining why he thought saudade was town
He eventually got on cuz i kept prodding him over it

[skitter30]

@Bella

Spoiler: A Compendium of Saudade Townposts

I hardclaim mason

Okay so this as a first actual post is interesting. My initial read on it was that he was an actual mason and I thought I actually found his partner at one point, I don't think so now but I stillthink scum don't jump in like this usually.

how many scum are there in a setup like this? 3?

are you one of them

I actually liked this setup and response despite it being a kinda throwaway question. Like I'm sure he knew there were 3 scum and I'm sure he also knew someone would respond to his question. It's a nice little reaction test waiting to happen and he used it to glean a read which is good follow-through. Town equity.

Saudade, is there really no game relevant commentary in you team thread?

can i have link to my team thread

are you on my team teacher

ok saudade is prob town

im always prob town
until i smak u

Iunno I just don't think this response is scummy but maybe he's a more brave scum than I think.

Ari are you going to scumhunt because so far everyones been posting walls and stuff and you were just amusing yourself looking througn my posts

I liked how he called me out on this. Could have very easily memed at me or continued on but instead said I should do something despite his prattling on. I think it was a very good call out and I like him for it.

You’d only be dealing with mass claim possibly if today is a mislynch. If we lynch scum mass claim doesn’t come into this. The fact you’re saying we would deal with mass claim logic tomorrow is troubling.

a) i'm generally a proponent of earlier massclaim than later massclaim tbh
b) i was obviously referring to the worst-case scenario wherein we lynch town today, in which massclaim has to happen tomorrow

i said i wanted to revisit the rc thing, not that i was going to shout for massclaim tomorrow indiscriminately

Nah you had none of that qualifiers and early mass claim is stupid if deepwolves can exist.

I am pretty sure you’re scum.

i dont follow the logic why u scumread her now
chew it for me im very stupid

Asking for the breakdown in this fashion is very good and I really like it tbh. It makes Math take a step back and explain from the basics where he stands and that is hugely helpful. Honestly very fond of this post.

Look at Sau tryign to gently push the wagon onto Ari, look at Math's associatives with him this interaction fucking reeked

you will die today for this
DIE

WTF bro.

He's making a case and making a read. He looked at your posting and read the intention behind them, correctly or not, in this fashion.

If you are going to go berserker on anyone who misreads your intentions this really isn't a good passtime for you.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

well rc does have a history of being absolutely terrible
VOTE: unvote

The "Hmmm" post had me like ??? until he unvoted. He took a step back to reconsider things and diffused his attack rather than escalating it. It is very pro-solve rather than pro-scum.

The way you interacted with RC and did not let it derail the game thread is very good town

Once again, I liek the way he approached his reads here.

I dont have any scumreads... Im collecting townreads

I also am uu=sing this strategy so I am fond of those using it.

I think its more of a character trait of his to be really kind rather than him trying to buddy everyone

Good read of me is good and I'm a sucker for those who get me so...

So why do you town read skitter

You tried to dance around me there but I insist on hearing you out

I mean, goodposting.

You are over-reacting.
there's nothing wrong with pushing players whoever they may be to learn something

Totes true and while maybe not AI I think it once again is more likely from someone who wants to sort the game.

That was harder to find than i thought

[skitter30]

i just reread all vote counts for this day

lynching shos (or pushing him) is a LOT harder then I thought it actually was. I had a feeling it was too easy, but it's definitely not.
It got to 3 votes at it's peak (L-1), with me on it (xtoxm + math).

If this is a town lynch it would have gotten further, faster? no?

I'm p sure it got too l-2 since it's 5 to lynch today
A lot of people expressed willingness but it never got to l-1 as far aa i can tell

[skitter30]

Ico i think shos's progression is fine

[skitter30]

Like there's a lot of other reasons he can be sr here but his progression on math is not really one of them imo

[skitter30]

Shos + teacher is not a scenario. It's not in what you quoted. It's not in my mind. You literally quoted where I say teacher town, and you twist this into an asso with you? Why?

You actually just said shos/teacher on the previous page

[skitter30]

Ari if ur town what am i missing here?

[skitter30]

Any private topics will be open at all times.

Scum neighborizing each other if they have daytalk is silly imo

[skitter30]

Flopz i hope everything is ok

[skitter30]

Defaulting to town but i dont like it

Whats ur read on me

[skitter30]

I've said almost everything I can because this game, despite the length and plethora of new posts, just circles back to the same base arguments over and over.

I have my PoE pool, it's unlikely to change unless a townflip on shos occurs and I highly doubt that.

Soneone asked where the counterwagon on shos was today, and the answer is that it was being built and pushed, but not voted. It was me all along.

i guess i have a few problems with this:

a) your view of the gamestate just seems to be so very different than mine? i don't think we've been wandering around in circles as much recently than as in during the rc era. and your motivation / interest is markedly different before and after the scum lynch. like you feel demotivated and just kinda uninterested now, and i'm kinda confused why that's happened at the point of the game where i feel like town would get more invigorated, not less.

b) the hammer was ... not good and i'm not sure your day1 and day2 outweigh your days3 and 4

c) your townreads are the people wagoning you so i'm kinda confused about your cw point. if shos is scum, who is pushing the cw to him exactly?

[skitter30]

Defaulting to town but i dont like it

Whats ur read on me

town.
you feel 'normal' in the way you did in eg CB/SC1, but you havent gone obvtown mode like youre capable of, if that makes sense

ive been kinda paranoid to tr you in games, since ive still never seen your scum game, but i have the sense that its gonna be strong

this feels hedgy

[skitter30]

Also I am so weirded out by shos not voting me atm

yes, it's kinda baffling ...

[skitter30]

reminder i'm vla weekends and may not be around again until saturday night

[skitter30]

Y NO DED

damnit
I can't believe xtomx has gotten to lylo, ftr.

so Skitter is clearly not today's lynch
I am probably a viable mislynch candidate (I know you want to math, don't vote yet)
xtomx is definitely a lynch candidate
Math should proooobably be kept for later, assuming we lynch correctly?

hi what is your solve and what happened to flopz. why do you want to keep math for later?

at the moment i think all scum is in {math/shos/flopz} and i am leaning towards voting you; you are welcome to tell me why i'm wrong

[skitter30]

I think there's 100% exactly 1 scum between You and Math. I'm surprised you aren't gunning for Math after him picking you over Ari without hesitation.

how do you get to exactly one scum in that pair?

[skitter30]

math teacher's theory was one scum in {ari/math} so teacher dying last night is making me wonder if i was right about you

[skitter30]

i need to do several things before i am ready to vote, including:

- rereading early game
- checking vc's
- checking plum/saudade's iso
- rereading how the saudade lynch went down and what you lot were doing at the time (iirc all of you lot except for flopz were offwagon. also shos/xtoxm isn't a thing. but shos/math both stayed far away from it and i need to look at what happened there again)
- and if i'm feeling really ambitious, relooking at the iso's of all of you lot.

these things tend to take me a while, so bear with me while i do my homework

[skitter30]

you knowing the theory is wrong doesn't particularly help me
i need to do some research on your scumgame too, i think

[skitter30]

shos does hito have thoughts on this lylo?

[skitter30]

for now can you link your like ~3 most recent onsite scumgames?
there's something in particular i want to check but i don't want to say what it is before you give me the games because then you can curate them in such a way to make yourself look good in the context of this game

[skitter30]

tyty
yeah that's why i don't want to go thru your list of topics myself lol, it's hard for people who post in speakeasy and haven't played too many games recently

[skitter30]

thanks i will take a look
sorry, i didn't mean to bring up unpleasantness :/

[skitter30]

VOTE: math

[skitter30]

Yeah I tried not being myself and that didn’t work and I am sorry.

Well played scum esp Skitter.

Thanks!

[skitter30]

thanks everyone!
ari i'm not actually sure why we lynched you? i think i was already on a not-shos trajectory so when you became viable and teacher/ico were pushing it i just hopped on

we knew we won ~day3 when the rce lynch became inevitable because there wasn't enough lynches to get both of us at that point given the gamestate

[skitter30]

the one lylo we were trying to avoid was me/you/flopz because i actually don't know how he would have voted (at that point we didn't know he was ic and couldn't really kill him)

but i was p sure that most 5ways with either {shos or ari} would lead to a win